Question for the analytic folks out there about Dobbins
Dobbins ran the ball yesterday 36 times and averaged about 4.4 ypc. Against a pretty good defense, that is a lot of hits and potential bumps and bruises. Any one with access to some data, know if a high workload one week is associated with a decrease in output the next week, either in number of carries or ypc? Prior to yesterday, he hasn't carried the ball more than 24 times in a game this season. Last year he carried the ball for 37 times for 200 yards against Maryland and only ended up getting 12 carries for 48 yards against UM (of course sadly, that might have been due to other aspects of their offense working rather well that day). Charbonnet carried 33 times for tough yards against Army, and it took him a few weeks to get back to "normal." Maybe the junior Dobbins has more experience in preparing for that kind of beating, but it would be interesting to know how the next week panned out for others in general.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
Beat OSU please.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
He is in really good shape and is 20 years old. He’ll be fine. Charbonnet was fine as well but the coaches wanted him on a pitch count since he was coming off surgery.
The better question will be whether Fields’ preparation is impacted any way. He has a knee bruise and he twisted his ankle. He’ll be fine but will definitely be sore 3-4 days.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Dobbins has been rested the entire season, with only 42 carries in the second half before yesterday. He isn’t limping into the final week of the regular season after a season of wear and tear. I wouldn’t expect any drop-off after a 36 carry game.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
Plus they have a really good backup - Teague - that they rotate in critical situations - he came in yesterday when the game was somewhat close. I think both teams come in almost injury free
November 24th, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
Agreed that Dobbins will be fine. One of my keys to the game for Michigan to have a fighting chance of winning against OSU; Slow down Dobbins. If Michigan can hold him to 100-130 yds, that would bode well. Pressuring Justin Fields is the other key.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
Dobbins has extremely low miles three years into his career. He had a ton of reps yesterday but hardly any tough games this season. He’ll be sore as hell today but he doesn’t have a cumulative burden on him. He is extremely dangerous at the second level but can be corralled in the first five yards easier than most OSU RBs.
Teague is a bruiser. Much more physical runner. They toss him out there when guys start wearing down and he bowling balls through. He falls forward and finds 2-3 extra yards.
They will run the ball a lot. Yesterday was a prelude to what they’ll want to do to us. We’re perceived as better against the pass than the run and they have a veteran RB and a young QB. The last thing they want is to throw it 30 times.
November 25th, 2019 at 9:28 PM ^
Aside from the weather, nobody saw the game plan coming. PSU has a top 5 run defense and are bad against the pass, expected a lot more through the air, regardless.
OSU shut down WI and PSU’s run game. They will come after Shea hard and let the NFL corners be DPJ and Collins play out, while counting on the pressure to keep Shea from becoming a problem. Going to be a great game. Still surprised at the early -8.5 line tho.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^
P.E.Dobbins.
He's going to be a handful.