OT-Don't look now, but there is some hope for the Tigers
Some key pitching stats from the last few weeks:
Mize last 6 starts:
38IP 22H 9ER 10BB 27K 2.13 ERA 0.84 WHIP
Skubal last 5 starts:
27IP 25H 10ER 9BB 39K 3.33 ERA 1.26 WHIP
Turnbull last 5 starts:
31IP 18H 6ER 7BB 29K 1.74 ERA 0.81 WHIP
I know Turnbull just went on the IL, so hopefully that isn't a serious injury. But the progress of Mize and Skubal could be huge news for the Tigers. Mize has pitched well most of the season. Skubal has really turned it on over the last month.
If the Tigers have two top young pitchers in Mize and Skubal, that would be a great foundation to build on. Mize and Skubal are under team control till 2027. And if Turnbull turns out to be a solid #3 starter, he is under team control till 2025.
Yes their hitting has stunk, but that can be fixed with $$$. If they have the beginnings of a top staff that is still cheap for several years, you can do a lot of team building on that.
I like your enthusiasm and enjoyed your informative post. Go Tigers!
I too love his enthusiasm, but they have a long way to go. I would argue they don't have a position player on the current roster that will be here when they are ready to compete for the division
As an Akil Baddoo stan account I have to disagree.
I would argue they don't have a position player on the current roster that will be here when they are ready to compete for the division.
I mostly agree, though Candelario seems to be rounding into form as a solid and steady MLB-level player. The difference with this Tigers team and a contending team is that Candy would be the high floor/low ceiling guy who is elevated by the play of high-ceiling guys around him. On this Tigers team, he's counted on to be the best hitter, and that's just a role he isn't meant for.
Schoop is the only other hitter I would say belongs on an MLB roster, but the chances of him being around long-term are slim.
The best hope for the Tigers offense is found in the futures of Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. If those guys pan out and join the MLB in the next couple years, then you can justify spending money on the FA market to round out the lineup. Do that, and hope that Mize and Skubal stay healthy and continue to grow, and that's a contending team.
You can absolutely win with Candelario. He isn't a star, but he's a solid average to above-average contributor. Baseball reference has him at about 1.0 WAR this season.
He's only under team control till 2024 though and he probably isn't worth dumping money into long-term.
AJ Hinch is a great manager. If you Tiger fans give him a few seasons you will be extremely happy with the results.
I do appreciate the positivity in the OP. But I also agree with your comment. The offense is so incredibly bad, it is shocking. Other than Candy, Schoop, and Badoo, the offense they put out there is embarrassing.
"Don't look now"
Me:
Just waiting for Torkelson to get out of Single A. I’m not familiar with how quickly #1 overall picks are supposed to develop, but I was hoping he’d at least be knocking on the door to triple A by now
I doubt Tork sees AAA this year, but maybe, probably AA. The minor league season began later than normal and Tork struggled early as well. Greene is still only in AA. I don’t expect the Tigers will rush either along because they won’t be competing for the next couple years anyway. Let them develop on the farm and then bring them up when it’s time to get serious.
Typically teams let players develop with the AA team. AAA players are there for call ups when needed or spot starts. Obviously not a set in stone rule but pretty common.
Agreed. Coincidentally I was googling Adley Rutschman yesterday who was an Oregon State baseball player I used to watch live. He was the overall #1 pick in the 2019 draft and he JUST moved up to AA this year.
Well without myself being an expert, #1 picks don’t typically go from Single A to AAA in two months... Even with #1 overall picks you’re still usually looking at a few years of development, not a few months.
That's extremely rare if none existent.. even guys like Mike trout spent 2 full years in rookie leagues and single A.
This is his first season playing pro ball. He's played 24 games since the Minors started later. There would be no way he would be near Triple-A at this point. And as others have mentioned, AA is more where teams bring top guys to develop and he would more likely not play much AAA at all in his career unless he's not really panning out like the #1 pick.
Yep, if you are in AAA for too long usually not a great sign of your long term major league career.
Tork is in high A and will probably be in Erie at some point this summer.
It’s been a fun year watching the pitchers develop. And Miggy going for 3,000 and 500. And Schoop and Haase and Willi starting to give the offense some life.
Totally agree. I haven't even cared that much about the wins and losses. Just been way more fun to watch this year now that there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
They can't hit for shit, and the bullpen still blows.
But if they draft Kumar, all is forgiven.
When was the last time the Tigers had a good bullpen? I haven't paid much attention for a while now but they've been bad overall so I assume they haven't had a good bullpen. But that was their biggest weakness even when they were good. Never seemed to have any more than 1 decent reliever.
1984
Yep, I believe the Tigers had both Sénor Smoke* and Guillermo** Hernandez in '84, plus dependable Doug Bair to eat innings.
Since then, the only good reliever the Tigers have had long-term was Mike Hennemen (unless you wish to think of Rollercoaster Jones as "good").
*aka Aurelio Lopez
** aka "Willie"
PaPa Grande????
Valverde was solid in 2010 and excellent in 2011. After that he fell apart, but he was 34, so not exactly a shock.
He blew 3 saves in 2010, ZERO in 2011. In the 2011 playoffs he didn't blow a save.
The Tigers didn't lose the World Series in 2012 because of their bullpen. Verlander got crushed in game 1, the got shut out in games 2 and 3, and in game 4, Leyland put in Phil Coke, a guy righties were hitting .400 against, to pitch to a bunch of righties. So of course he failed.
Part of the reasons the Tigers never won a world series was they choked. The other part was that Leyland was a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE in-game manager. Great clubhouse guy, but incompetent at making in-game decisions.
The bullpen was the reason they did not win a World Series during the Leyland years.
The offense choked in both WS years. 2012 was an embarrassment.
Yep, 1984, maybe the best single-season bullpen ever, if the Tigers had a lead after six innings, the game was pretty much over.
Hernandez had a historically great season that year, which is why he's one of the only relievers to ever win the Cy-Young. He was dominant.
And neither Hernandez not Lopez had years even approaching what they did in ‘84, before or after.
EDIT: Wilcox as well. All three of them emptied the tank to cash that one in.
Kumar would be fine, but I'd rather have Leiter. The rotation at that point would be one of the best in the league for years to come.
While I'd be ok with one of those two Vandy pitchers (slightly prefer the more polished Leiter though), I'd rather the Tigers heavily HEAVILY scout and draft the best available SS---and there's several potentially very-good-to-great shortstops available this draft, probably the most SS-heavy draft ever. Shortstops who can field the position and actually hit, too, if you can imagine that!
The organization is already pretty well-stocked with arms and I think another season or two with Chris Fetters as pitching coach will get the best out of the pitching talent we have stockpiled. OTOH, we need bats and lots of them; unless a can't-miss arm falls into their laps in rounds 2-4, I'd draft hitters in all three of those rounds after getting our next SS in the first.
Can't disagree with this take, this is the year of the SS in the draft. My bet is the Tigers would have the pick of the litter for sure.
I agree, Mize, Skubal, and Turnbull could be the foundation of the starting rotation for the next few seasons.
I'm curious to see what they do with Boyd at the trade deadline, he's 30 years old and will be a free agent following the 2022 season.
I think both Boyd and Turnbull will be dealt.
Boyd--- yes, probably for yet another light hitting middle infielder. Not really sure they'll get much more for him than that anyway, as he serves up waaaayy too many gopher balls.
I think we keep Turnbull. I've always liked his stuff and now he's learned how to harness it.
Boyd should definitely be dealt if he has any value.
I’ve only been watching them for the last couple weeks since getting back to Metro Detroit. Schoop has had a great stretch. But, we all knew the back end of Miggy’s contract would be terrible…still hurts seeing him look this washed.
Unfortunately Miggy is the worst player in baseball. I love the guy but his contract, age, the fact that he plays one position, hits under .200 and has almost no power left in his bat. Look at his slugging %. It was like .280 last time I checked from our 3 hole hitter... he is a given double play if someone is on first base.
With that said, tork could see action this year. He was a college player and they're ready sooner than later. A September call up is a given almost. Don't forget about Riley Greene as well. I also like Akil Baddoo for the future.
Don't forget we have Manning if he can stay healthy and there is a pitcher in single a that's been phenomenal.
We really need to hut on some positional players. That catcher from osu needs to pan out as well.
It would be idiotic for the Tigers to burn a year of service time to bring up Tork and/or Greene this September when the Tigers are likely to be totally out of the playoff picture. Tork has finally looked as advertised after a brutal spring training and start to the season, but you should not expect to see him and Greene until a month or two into the start of next season to keep an extra year of control - unless Avila feels like his job is in jeopardy and harms the long-term future of the team to try and save his own ass.
They need a lot of hitting unfortunately. Only have 2 quality hitters in the farm system. Mize and Skubal are exciting young prospects though. Turnbull is 28 already so he's not exactly young, I think his best value will be as a trade piece this year. Trade him and Fulmer, get some more young bats in the farm and you might be on to something.
I agree, but it is easier to get competent hitters in free agency than consistently good pitchers.
And a whole lot less expensive as well.
Re: drafting pitching. One former GM made a good point one day about drafting starting pitching. For every home-grown starter you want, you’d better draft 3. One makes it, one is a bust, and one gets hurt.
Pitching is promising. Schoop is picking it up offensively. Grossman was a solid pick-up. I like Candelario and Haase as developing players. But team over-eagerness at the plate and throwing the ball around on the infield has cost them several games - like many really young teams who don't have the mature mindset yet,.
Cabrera needs to get his records and then retire. Still fun to watch this legend this season, I'd just like to see him further down the lineup.
Mize, Skubal, Candy, Greene, Tork, Dingler has the potential for a nice core. The ‘20s could be a good decade for the Tigers.
Add Manning and Rocker and you've really got something going.
I am quickly losing hope with Manning. This was supposed to be the year when he should be taking the next step to push for an MLB roster spot, and he's currently sitting on a 9.23/7.64/4.70 ERA/FIP/xFIP in AAA. Not a good sign.
He's still only 23, and last year was basically a lost season for minor league players, so it's not like he can be totally written off yet. But he's not trending in the right direction at the moment, and is starting to look more and more like a promising prospect that fails to reach his potential.
Admittedly I don't watch or listen to much MLB these days due to the pace and style of play issues that were described in the thread the other day but this is definitely good to see!
With the money still tied up in Cabrera's contract through 2023 I feel like the best approach is to draft and develop for another two years with the goal of having a team capable of competing in 2024 and beyond.
They’re gonna need some bigger bats.
The new pitching coach is working wonders.
That guy is young. Or at least he looks young. I always think he's a player on the team when he's out there talking on the mound.