Michigan opens -10.5 vs Iowa
Over/Under 44 projects about a 27-17 game
https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=597
Some fancystat predictors:
SP+ (paywall): Michigan by 11.1
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/32735708/college-football-sp+-rankings-week-13
PiRatings: Michigan by 9.9
https://piratings.wordpress.com/
CBS Sportsline (paywall): Michigan 29, Iowa 20
https://www.sportsline.com/college-football/picks/
Other games of note:
Georgia between 4 and 6.5 favorites over Alabama, O/U 49.5-51
Cincinnati -10 over Houston
Oklahoma St -6.5 over Baylor
Utah -3 over Oregon (for Rose Bowl trip)
I will of course be hoping for Georgia to beat Alabama -- to keep Georgia out of the 2/3 game, and keep a very talented (+ 4 weeks prep) Alabama out of the playoff entirely.
Cincinnati and Okla St winning would help:
(a) keep more talented teams from backing in
(b) to hell with Notre Dame
November 28th, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^
Subtitle - Vegas, flush with all that OSU money, comes after Michigan's.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:11 PM ^
double post
November 28th, 2021 at 12:12 PM ^
Rooting interest:
Michigan (obviously)
Georgia
Cincinnati
Oklahoma state
November 28th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
If Michigans second half OSU offense comes to play there isnt anyone in the big ten that can touch us.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:22 PM ^
Win the game. Beat Iowa. Be ready. I plan on staying on cloud nine all week, but the coaches and players have to get ready for another big game. B10 Championship. Yes please !
November 28th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
This is going to be a slog of a game. Iowa will match UM’s physical play. UM won’t be able to just run the ball at will. Cade will have to make the right choice vs the Hawkeyes disciplined zone.
I expect a lower scoring game.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
Agreed, nothing taken for granted, and I don't think we'll be able to run the ball as well as we did yesterday. Iowa will have an extra day of rest too.
Overall though I think Iowa is a great matchup for Michigan. They have few weapons on offense, their QB takes a lot of sacks, and they don't have a stud running back. Hard to see how they move the ball much. They get points based on their opponents' mistakes: turnovers, short fields, special teams. Michigan's calling card all season has been limiting mistakes (penalties, turnovers) and where Iowa has the SP+ #5 national ranked special teams, Michigan is #2.
I fully expect to be uncomfortable for a half, maybe 3 quarters, but Harbaugh loves these kinds of games
November 28th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
Against Wisconsin, which is a better run defense than Iowa, we doubled their season average in rushing yards. Wisconsin ran for 166 yards against Iowa, which is 40 yards more than their season average on what they allow. So, while we may not get 297 yards, I expect it be a game like against OSU where Cade will pick and choose when to throw the ball with a heavy reliance on running.
Iowa will try to limit our possessions, but I am not sure if they have the horses on offense to keep that going. Low scoring game may not happen unless Iowa crap happens.
We will see...
November 28th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
The parallel here is the 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey team. Although it was the big one, the win over the Soviets (OSU) wasn't the gold medal game. That was just the semifinal. They still had to beat Finland (Iowa) to win the gold.
Although in my scenario, there would still be two more games to win after beating Finland.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^
Last night in my head, Al Michaels saying, "there was still the matter of beating Finland"
November 28th, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
I hope we don't overlook Iowa like Ohio State overlooked us. We're the better team, and certainly better than Ohio State expected, but they were looking forward to the CFP and that was a mistake.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
Exactly...want to cringe at hearing how we're unbeatable vs Iowa... it sounds like the 11W staff predictions before they played Michigan yesterday
November 28th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^
I don’t agree with this. Maybe OSU is guilty of arrogance and making assumptions. But they were squarely punched in the face and folded like a cheap lawn chair. Looking back at the games they struggled in, they were ripe for the picking. Looking ahead I don’t think was the issue as Day wouldn’t let that happen. There’s no blaming their game plan as it would have worked against every other team they played. They ran into a buzzsaw.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
I hope and truly believe that this team's leadership (of each class but especially the upperclassmen) will make sure that taking care of unfinished business will quickly and consistently be the total focus all week long.
The opportunity to end a generation-long B1G Championship drought will quickly get yesterday's focus level back this week.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
I don't think OSU *ever* looks past Michigan. And that's what was so satisfying about yesterday. They recruit to beat us, they condition to beat us, they mentally prepare to beat us. And Michigan physically whipped them.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:08 PM ^
If by overlooking us you mean OSU was arrogant, yes I can see that. But I think OSU gave us their best shot. They had so many plays that went their way and their WRs made a lot of incredible catches. Still, we were the dominant team.
I don't see this UM overlooking anyone. I am sure Harbaugh remembers that game we lost at Kinnick stadium. We will be on to them.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:29 PM ^
Just win. We don’t need a letdown game here. It’s style points time.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
"(b) to hell with Notre Dame"
You buried the lede.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
Is there any scenario in which a 2 loss Buckeye team backs into the playoff?
November 28th, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
No they are out. If Iowa wins, they would get in before OSU. And if we lose, we would still have a better chance than osu.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
Just for (not) fun, trying to imagine one:
Georgia blows out Alabama
Cincinnati loses to Houston
Oklahoma St loses to Baylor
Oregon loses to Utah
Michigan beats Iowa
(None of those, individually, are very far fetched, but a 5-game-parlay that includes two outright upsets is probably over +1000 odds.)
In that case, Georgia would be the clear #1 and Michigan clear #2. Notre Dame would be in. Then, for the last spot we'd have:
2-loss non-champ Ohio St
2-loss non-champ Alabama
2-loss Big 12 champ Baylor
With these teams behind but much less likely:
2-loss non-champ Ole Miss
2-loss non-champ Michigan St
2-loss ACC champ (Wake or Pitt)
2-loss non-champ Oklahoma St
2-loss non-champ Oklahoma
1-loss non-champ Cincy
1-loss AAC champ Houston
Even then, OSU might have the weakest case of those first three for getting in, despite some eye-popping performances, and a lot of metrics still having them as a Top 4 (even Top 2) team.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
You’d have to go with Baylor I feel like
November 28th, 2021 at 1:08 PM ^
In that particular scenario I would put Alabama and Ohio St in there because Notre Dame is only hanging on to the CFP picture by the fact of Cincinnati being in it and even the committee isn’t respecting Cinci as of now. If they lost, that takes any credibility away from ND season. You gotta go with the two best remaining teams in that scenario and that is the two above. Wouldn’t people just love an all Bigten SEC playoff lol. That might get the expansion moving way quicker
November 28th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
Iowa's QB play is pretty bad. It will be really hard for them score 20 points if we continue to take care of the football on offense, and if their punter doesn't drop a few dimes on the 1 yard line.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
After watching OK and the ‘other’ OSU take turns stepping on their respective dicks last night, please do not field any punts inside the 10.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:04 PM ^
Yeah, Notre Dame should have to play a conference championship game just like everyone else. This sitting their ass at home and waiting for someone to get beat on some last second field goal or something and slide in is bullshit
November 28th, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
Iowa will play tough. Michigan can win. Need to play man ball against a more man ball team. It can be done.
November 28th, 2021 at 9:05 PM ^
The only thing that should be taken for granted is that Iowa won't have their freaky Kinnick Stadium magic working for them in Indianapolis.