What is this diary? Each week, I take a deep dive into the box scores and team pages from Pro Football Focus, Game on Paper, College Football Data, and more for as many Big Ten teams as I can manage. Often, life makes it impossible to cover every team, but I try to always cover OSU, MSU, PSU, and whoever Michigan is playing in the coming week. I try to generate a couple blurbs based on the statistics I find compelling from each game/team. Really, there’s no formula. This is just a very paper-based, statistical approach to evaluating teams. And, also, sometimes I watch a little bit of film if I don’t believe the statistics and want to know what the heck is happening (see: Drew Allar).

Note. Since I had a bunch of free time this Sunday, I decided to try to get the Michigan content done and published before all the hard work the guys do makes my stats/takes irrelevant. You can think of this as the first released single to the album I'll drop later this week.

MICHIGAN defeated INDIANA (52-7)

THE WOLVERINES STAND ALONE

Even more so than in weeks prior, the analytics make one thing abundantly clear: Michigan is playing like the best team in the country.

• F+ hasn’t been revealed yet this week, but they’ll be first by a healthy margin.
• PFF gives them their best overall grade (97.2) by a pretty healthy margin, too (the second highest graded team is Air Force at 95.6) .
• College Football Data has them with the best net predicted points added (0.572) by yet another healthy margin (Oregon [0.407] just edges Washington [0.405]).
• They have an average victory of 39.3 to 6.7.

WORSE AGAINST NOBODIES

If they wish, talking heads can continue to parrot the narrative that Michigan ain’t played nobody because, in all fairness, it’s kind of true. But guess what happens when the Wolverines play teams that are slightly better than nobody: they win by more. In the four games they’ve played against teams ranked worse than 80th in SP+ (ECU, UNLV, BGSU, IU), Michigan’s average victory is 37.0-5.8 (+31.2). In the three games they’ve played against teams ranked in the 50s in SP+ (Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota), Michigan’s average victory is 42.7-8 (+34.7). The only logical conclusion is that when Michigan plays Maryland (32nd in SP+), they’ll win by about 37 points, and when Michigan plays Ohio State (2nd) and Penn State (8th), they’ll win by about 40. That’s just how growth works.

MCCARTHY'S STATISTICAL HEISMAN CAMPAIGN

After yesterday’s results, Michael Penix Jr. will win the Heisman unless something (a) awful or (b) bananas happens. His raw numbers (384.3 passing yards per game) are too gaudy for the national media (who still thinks total yardage is a good way of determining who has the best offense) to ignore. However, on an efficiency basis, J.J. McCarthy is at least his equal, if not better.

I forgot to add it to the table, but McCarthy also bests Penix in QBR (which is opponent adjusted). McCarthy’s first with 92.6, and Penix is second with 91.7.

And that’s just passing data. What about what McCarthy brings to the table with his legs? He’s run the ball 24 times for 203 yards (8.5 Y/C) and three touchdowns. Penix has run the ball just six times for 20 yards (3.3 Y/C) and zero TDs.

It’s not going to happen. Hell, McCarthy might not even get invited to New York. But I’m going to keep beating the drum until my fingers bleed.

BLAKE CORUM'S USAGE

Last week, I discussed how a decreased workload for the star RB was probably optimal this year because last year he became optimized around 120 carries. He’s on pace to hit 120 carries around the end of the Purdue game (aka the last preseason game). Here’s a CHART that compares his yearly workloads.

ONE PLAY AND THAT'S IT

Each of the four Big Ten teams Michigan’s played this year have scored exactly one touchdown against them: Rutgers scored on a 69 yard catch-and-run slant on the opening drive; Nebraska scored on a 74 yard run in ultra-garbage time; Minnesota scored on a 35 yard prayer at the end of the half; and Indiana scored on a 44 yard trick play that fooled a young safety. Outside of these plays, Michigan has allowed its Big Ten opponents to gain just 3.65 yards per play.

ROTATING DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

In the comments section of the game recap post, one “bweldon” said: “One stat I found interesting was the number of snaps that the D-Line had that game as well as that not a single player on the DL is averaging over 30 snaps a game.  That is the sort of rotation and depth that Georgia had the past 2 years.    That makes a huge difference later in the season.” Here are two pie charts showing (first) the snap distribution amongst Georgia and also Michigan defensive ends that average 10+ snaps per game, and (second) the snap distribution amongst Georgia and also Michigan defensive tackles that average 10+ snaps per game.

The easiest thing to note is: “Georgia has one additional end and tackle that averaged 10+ snaps per game.” The easiest thing to question is: “Does that matter?” Is your team more efficient if you have six ends and five tackles to rotate? Or can we assume that five ends and four tackles keeps your team’s defensive line fresh enough that you’d rather play your five/four best rather than your six/five best? Or did Georgia just have more awesome players than Michigan? I think one day there will be enough good football players to answer this question, but I don’t really feel like that’s the case now. Also, how much does this change in the more challenging games? I didn't have enough time to figure that out.

See you all later this week for around the Big Ten stats!