How surprised are we? A look back at our season predictions
This season has exceeded my expectations. In August I thought 9-3 sounded about right given the staff upheaval and the disappointeing 2020 results. This got me wondering what others were feeling back in late August so I picked one of the prediction threads and logged the results. There were some interesting takes, a lot of hedging of bets, a significant level of BPONE, and of course heavy "discourse" about why one's prediction should have them blasted into the sun. So how did you do? Thread link HERE.
OaklandInPlay 8-4
Darker Blue 10-2
WichitanWolverine 7-5
blueheron 8-4
WolvinLA2 8-4
Darker Blue 4-8 Covering his bases after his previous 10-2 guess
Dean Pelton 3-9
mGrowOld 10-3 WichitanWoverine vows to eat a lemon out of his ass
ThadMattasagoblin 6-6
COLBlue 7-5
AlbanyBlue 6-6
ih8losing 8-4
East German Judge No prediction other than losses to Wiscy & Penn State
The Deer Hunter Agrees with EGJ
Michigan Arrogance 8-4
thisisnotrandy 8-4
unWavering 9-3
CJW3 7-5
Perkis-Size Me 6-6
OaklandInPlay 4-8
drjaws 8-4
Goblue89 8-4
NeverPunt 7-5
notinmyhouse 4-7
chunkums 9-3
TuffBammBamm 6-6
g_reaper3 7-5
Rxwolverine 9-3
swalburn 8-4
Julian 6-6
The Mayor 10-2
Don 9-3
Gardner FTW 11-1
Michfan777 6-6
jdib 9-3
MJ14 9-3
GoBlue419 10-2
joeismyname 9-3
StirredNotShaken 5-7
Crime Reporter 7-5
Hotel Putingrad 8-4
SouthOfHeaven 5-7
jabberwock 6-6
LabattsBleu 6-6
VaUMWolverine 9-4
bluesouth 8-4
mackbru 8-4
Qmatic 10-2
Panther72 10-2
Sllepy81 8-1 with 3 Covid cancellations
umich1 14-0 National Champs
stephenrjking 6-6
Vote_Crisler_1937 6-6
oHOWiHATEohioSTATE Fuck you!
LSAClassOf2000 7-5
B-Nut-GoBlue 4-8
JimmisGod 6-6
DoubleB 8-4
hammers 8-4
Slim Whitman 14-0
pendingperil 7-5
username03 5-7
Double-D 10-2
Woodstock Wolverine 10-2 with losses to WMU and OSU
Teeba 8-4
btn 5-7
kurpit 7-5
R.J. MacReady 7-5
Brandon Swatson 11-1
Code-7 7-5
MountainDew88 7-5
magonus 8-4
Dave B 7-5
lunchboxthegoat 8-4
OkinawaGoBlue 12-0
Brooklyn_Wolverine 12-0 National Champs
HollywoodHokeHogan 11-1 if Charbonnet transfers back
Perkis-Size Me 10-2 Changing his 6-6 tune
Golden section 8-4
Mglobules 8-4
I Just Blue Myself 6-7
butuka2193Or 12-0
MichAkronFan 7-5
Wolvie97 8-4
November 28th, 2021 at 12:39 PM ^
I was too confused to make a prediction. Talent said 9-3 maybe but the lack of direction and adjustment in 2020 left me thinking that 4-8 was possible. 11 wins was not on my list of possible outcomes.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
And probably half of them imagined Iowa State being 12-0 right now. 7-5 last I checked.
Love the one you're with...
November 28th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
My 9-3 was much worse than it might seem... here's what I said in that thread:
"7-5 with injuries to key players
9-3 if we stay healthy
Losses to OSU, PSU, Wisconsin; possibly also to IU and MD"
Ironically, one game I was reasonably confident we'd win was Michigan State.
So my prediction for the season was really completely and utterly wrong, as was my prediction for the OSU game.
I'm very happy about that.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^
I thought I was being optimistic at 8-4, and am reminded how different the work of coaches and players is from statisticians and prognosticators. It's the coaches' job to believe in their kids and their futures. Prognosticators can project, but they can only work from data already amassed.
There really is a difference, and I assume that any successful bettor needs to be working that raw space in between.
Anyone want to give us an overall average?
November 28th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
The average pick was: 7.8 - 4.2
November 28th, 2021 at 12:57 PM ^
Slightly above average! Just like always!
November 28th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
This reminds of 1997 to an extent, except moreso. That team was widely believed to be good, not great, and then... This year's team has been more underrated and even more fun than that one (to this point...winning the whole damn thing again would be nice). 1997 reinforced to me to just sit back and enjoy the ride rather than set expectations that don't help either way.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:57 PM ^
You’re right, but of course that team had one very special contributor. Not sure they would have run the table without him. There are some “Dudes” on this team but nobody like that.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
Yeah, if only we had anyone on this team that had received Heisman discussion...
Cumong, man. Hutch and Haskins shouldn't expect HOF credentials, but still.
November 28th, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^
It would be a crime against humanity if Stroud and Walker were invited to NYC, and neither of Hutch or Haskins were.
Think about it: a supposedly big piece of the Heisman debate is what you did in the biggest game of the season. Stroud and Walker will be watching the game next Sat on their couches. That's in part because of Walker's abysmal failure last week, Stroud compiling half his yards in garbage time yday, and most of all, Hutch and Haskins absolutely dominating The Game.
If anyone thinks this is a homer take, I'm fine with that...
November 28th, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
Ah, Dean. I read every one of his posts in the "Debbie Downer" voice.
Hey, Dean, hope you were smiling yesterday -- and are still smiling today!
November 28th, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
Well, I was sorta, kinda close --- thinking 9-3 to 10-2. Don't even remember if I bothered to mention that anywhere.
I was and remain a believer in Harbaugh. I'm curious to see if Warde sits down with Jim to renegotiate the current contract. It's a long shot, but hey, stranger things have happened.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^
Fun post, Yo_Blue.
I'm in the list. I figured they'd lose the big road games (Wisconsin, MSU, Penn State) and (of course) OSU. I missed all but one of those. On that one, I find it funny that Michigan did to OSU what Sparty has done to us several times (beat a team that's better on paper).
Yesterday was awesome and really unexpected. Recruiting does matter, and currently the difference between the teams is probably as big as it has ever been. It will be for the next couple of years, too. (I'm too young to address 1969. Anyway, it seems like another era.) It means that Michigan's coaching and ... intestinal fortitude, I guess, need to be that much better. They were yesterday. (The weather obviously helped, too.) It also might not be reach to say that OSU has lost some of its edge.
This was the biggest Michigan football win since the 1998 Rose Bowl. I don't think anything else comes close.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^
I agree with a lot of what you've said.
Interesting thought about recruiting: Yes, it does matter, but then think about underrated players like Hassan Haskins, who had only one other P5 offer (!), and turned out to be a star, along with other contributors to this team.
There are lots of intangibles to consider in evaluating recruits, apparently.
As to the weather, it didn't appear that OSU was hampered by it offensively. Both teams' offenses executed well in the passing game. Their QB had excellent stats yesterday.
We simply pushed their D-line around and Haskins did an awful lot of good things.
November 28th, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^
Through all of the chaos and excitement you must have forgotten the 67-65 3OT thriller with Illinois in 2010.
Other than that, I think you’re right.
November 28th, 2021 at 3:25 PM ^
That's one of the 10 or so games I've been to... 3 have been OT games weirdly enough.
November 28th, 2021 at 4:05 PM ^
It was an outstanding performance by Harbaugh and a John Cooper-esque performance by Day. This game reminded me so much of the mid-90s games where we beat OSU teams that were better on paper. We were simply more prepared, more focused, and kept our composure and intensity for 60 minutes. They seemed surprised by what we brought to the table.
FWIW about recruiting, I read a post on Eleven Wankers about Day primarily focusing on skill positions and not paying enough attention to the lines. Of course thats a random fan take and I'm not up to date enough on recruiting to know if that's accurate.
Finally, yes, absolutely the biggest win since the 98 Rose Bowl.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
Hope Wichitan Wolverine is hungry for overtaking ass lemons.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
Hey, nobody was supposed to find that!
November 28th, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^
It doesn't seem like Darker Blue was predicting 4-8 with their second post, but responding to the OP's 4-8 prediction and calling them a troll.
But maybe they can clarify.
November 28th, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
Having spent time with a spy for a while, I learned not to show my hand.
November 28th, 2021 at 3:25 PM ^
Iowa State is playing well in spite of the losses. Their record is returning to the mean. However, I think the fancy stats have ISU as a sound team and Matt Campbell as a fine coach (suitable for backfilling one of the elite moves (if there is one.)
Did any one predict a Michigan loss to MSU? Only in my worst scenarios did that happen again. And maybe we can agree that it in fact did not happen other than a travesty of replay interpretation.
November 28th, 2021 at 3:32 PM ^
i wonder how many of the 7-5ish prediction people have posted that they “knew it all along” in the snowflake threads. i guarantee they’re in there.
i wasn’t on the thread, which frankly surprises me. i know that i predicted 9-3 going in, but thought we could be better if we got good qb play. 11-1 sounded like a dream season, and it has been.
November 28th, 2021 at 3:42 PM ^
To be fair there was an or before my 5-7. Regardless, I didn't expect this in my wildest dreams. I'll do my penance by leaving the warm isolation of ruralish Alabama for the cold big city of Indianapolis while yelling myself horse for a big ten championship.
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