The 2021 Michigan versus Ohio State game, an exhilarating 42 to 27 victory, is arguably the biggest win in Michigan history since Bo’s 1969 takedown of the #1 Buckeyes.  The game has become mythological among Wolverine fans.  So much so that we may forget some of the details of how the game transpired back and forth, and how close the game actually was until the very end.

Here is an examination of how Michigan beat Ohio State last year, drive-by-drive, and how the results of those drives impacted each other as the game progressed.  There are some surprises when you look at the details.  (Spoiler alert, here is one of them:  The weather did NOT impact this game.)

And then the key question: Can Michigan do it again?

GAME SUMMARY:

On Offense:  Michigan had a perfect offensive game plan for Ohio State, and they executed it perfectly.  Michigan controlled the ball, took time off the clock, limited Ohio State’s offensive possessions . . . AND they paid off all of their scoring drives with touchdowns.  Michigan did not kick a single field goal all game.

On Defense:  Michigan played bend-but-don’t-break defense, held on for dear life, and broke serve on one extra stop (forcing OSU to punt 4 times versus Michigan punting 2 times and 1 interception that was a de-facto punt), and holding OSU to 2 field goals while Michigan scored 2 corresponding touchdowns.  That was it, but that was enough.

On Special Teams:  Michigan played clean, sound, uneventful special teams.  No Drama.  Ohio State did not get any short fields where they were able to start a drive in Michigan territory.  AJ Henning had 67 kick yard returns, including a couple of double-digit kick returns in the 4th quarter that set up vital Michigan drives with good field position.

Penalties:  Michigan had only 2 penalties for 20 yards the entire game, while Ohio State had 10 penalties for 66 yards.  Two of those OSU penalties on their defense converted 3rd downs into 1st downs for Michigan.  One of those OSU penalties on their offense led to a punt, and another of those OSU penalties on their offense likely led to a field goal instead of a touchdown, when it took 3rd and goal from the 3, to 3rd and goal from the 8.

The Weather:  It’s a fun narrative – tough, ground-and-pound Michigan dominates finesse, pass-happy Ohio State in near-blizzard conditions – but the weather was NOT a factor in the game.  CJ Stroud passed for nearly 400 yards at just under 70%.  Cade passed for 159 yards at 68%.  There were no errant passes caused by wind.  There were no dropped passes or fumbles caused by a slippery ball.  The snow dusting added to the mystique and drama of the game, but it did not actually impact the game.    

GAME DETAILS:

On Offense:

Michigan played nearly perfectly on offense . . . and they needed to. 

People forget how close this game was because of the final score.  But it was just a one score game (a TD + 2 point conversion difference) with only 2:30 left in the 4th quarter.  If Ohio State kept Michigan from scoring at that point, they would have had the ball down 8 points with a chance to tie the game.  But Michigan would not be denied, and they scored their final TD at 2:17 to go up 15 points and put the game out of reach.

Here are some of the highlights from Michigan’s nearly flawless offensive performance:

- Michigan controlled the ball, took time off the clock, and limited Ohio State’s offensive possessions.  Michigan had scoring drives of 10 plays for 75 yards, 13 plays for 82 yards, 3 plays for 81 yards, 5 plays for 78 yards, 9 plays for 66 yards, and 5 plays for 63 yards, ALL OF THEM TOUCHDOWNS.  Michigan did not settle for a single field goal.

- Michigan scored first, a touchdown, which put immediate pressure on Ohio State to keep up with Michigan.  Ohio State would feel this continuous pressure to keep up the rest of the game.

- Michigan never got behind by more than 3 points, and they were only behind by those 3 points for just over 5 minutes in the second quarter.  They did not trail the rest of the game.

- Michigan matched every single Ohio State scoring drive with a scoring drive of their own, except for one Ohio State drive in the first quarter.   

- Michigan only punted twice in the game, and those 2 punts were in the second quarter.  They scored on every single possession after that, all touchdowns.

- Michigan did have one interception, but it was in the first quarter and it was at the OSU 15, a de-facto punt.  The offense had no other turnovers after that.

- Even Michigan’s failed drives made it at least into Ohio State territory before punting (or interception), except for one 3-and-out-drive in the second quarter.

- Michigan “stayed on schedule” all game.  First downs were consistently 3 yard gains or more.  In spite of the ball-control emphasis, Michigan only faced 10 third downs the entire game, and only 2 of those third downs were for longer than 3 yards.  Michigan converted on 7 of those third downs (4 Haskins runs, 1 Cade pass, 2 OSU penalties).  They went for it on 4th down after one of those failed third down conversions and made it (a Haskins run).  So, Michigan failed to convert on only 2 keep-the-drive-alive plays all game.

- Cade McNamara was an efficient 13/19 (68.4%) for 159 yards.  Hassan Haskins had 28 carries for 169 pile-moving rushing yards (6 yards per carry).  Michigan as a team had 487 total yards against Ohio State.

Wow, what an offensive performance across the board.  I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it from Michigan in such a big game.

On Defense:

We all have such fond memories of this game that we tend to replay it in our mind’s eye as Hutchinson and Ojabo chasing a panicked Stroud around play after play, and sacking him for three-and-out after three-and-out in a quagmire of Ohio State offensive futility. 

But that is not what happened.  This was NOT a dominant shut-down defensive performance by Michigan.  But it didn’t need to be.

Ohio State had 458 total yards of offense, only 29 yards less than Michigan’s near-perfect offensive performance.  OSU had 23 first downs to Michigan’s 24 first downs.  Until the last 2 minutes, Ohio State scored on as many drives – five – as Michigan did.   Stroud was 34/49 (69.4%) for 394 yards, 0 INTs, and 2 TDs.  The weather was NOT a factor, that is a myth.       

The Michigan defense only slowed down Ohio State’s offense, they did not stop it.  But that slow-down was just enough to limit their possessions and win the game.

Michigan played the epitome of bend but don’t break defense.  They made OSU go the looong, laborious way to score.  The five OSU scoring drives took 12 plays for 64 yards (a field goal), 4 plays for 56 yards (a TD), 12 plays for 62 yards (a field goal), 17 plays for 82 yards (a TD), and 13 plays for 75 yards (a TD).  There were no truly explosive Ohio State drives.  OSU actually won the Time of Possession stat: 31:48 to Michigan’s 28:12. 

That might be the way Michigan wanted to play on offense, but it is not the way that Ohio State wanted to play on offense.  There would be no 49-point first half explosion like the previous week against MSU.  OSU was uncomfortable all game. They could never get in a rhythm and could never get separation from Michigan.  They were always in catch up mode.

The Michigan defense kept everything in front of them, Hutchinson’s and Ojabo’s heroics came at key times for key stops, and they held on just enough:

- Michigan forced one extra stop on OSU (making OSU punt 4 times versus Michigan’s 2 punts and 1 interception “punt”).

- Michigan held OSU to 2 field goals while Michigan scored 2 corresponding touchdowns for a net differential of -8 points (6 OSU field goal points – 14 Michigan touchdown points).

That one extra stop and those 8 lost points for Ohio State were the difference in the game.

 

THE FLOW OF THE GAME – DRIVE-BY-DRIVE:

All of those great stats only tell part of the story.  The way the game flowed across Michigan’s and Ohio State’s drives was just as important.  Michigan scored first to put pressure on OSU.  They never got more than 3 points behind OSU and that was only for a few minutes early in the game.  Michigan scored touchdowns while Ohio State scored field goals early in the game.  And then when Ohio State threatened to make a game of it in the 4th quarter, Michigan kept matching OSU touchdowns with touchdowns of their own, and kept the game out of reach.

Michigan’s 1st Drive:  Michigan receives the ball and goes 10 plays for 75 yards for a touchdown, taking nearly 5 minutes off the clock.  Hassan Haskins picks up 3 key third downs during the drive to keep it going.  The World Famous Statue of Liberty play – Cade fake pass to Edwards, handoff to Henning around the back – finishes it off for a TD.  The crowd is juiced.  Everyone knows now that Michigan has come to play.  M 7 – OSU 0.  Q1 10:12.

Ohio State’s 1st Drive:  This drive is a disaster for Ohio State.  They are clearly rattled.  They start the drive on the 4 after a very poor kickoff fielding decision.  Stroud fumbles on the first play (but recovers), followed by 2 incompletes.  OSU goes three and out with the ball on the OSU 5.  The crowd goes nuts.  M 7 – OSU 0.  Q1 9:25.

Michigan’s 2nd Drive:  Henning gets a 17 yard punt return to the OSU 39.  Cade completes a 24 yard pass to Wilson to the OSU 15, but the drive ends in a Cade interception on the next play.  That’s Not Great Bob, but it’s not horrible either.  It’s pretty much an arm punt.  The good news: Michigan has now shown that they can move the ball on Ohio State on the ground and through the air.  M 7 – OSU 0.  Q1 8:44.      

Ohio State’s 2nd Drive:  Ohio State finally wakes up and goes 64 yards in 12 plays, but only for a field goal.  Michigan makes them earn every yard.  The key play is a false start penalty on third and goal from the 3.  THANK YOU MICHIGAN CROWD.  That makes it third and long, and Aidan Hutchinson does his thing and sacks CJ Stroud.  No touchdown for you.  M 7 – OSU 3.  Q1 3:36.   

Michigan’s 3rd Drive:  Michigan moves the ball 30 yards in 8 plays to the OSU 45 but the drive stalls there.  Robbins gets a solid punt for 42 yards.  M 7 – OSU 3.  Q2 14:48.

Ohio State’s 3rd Drive:  OSU makes it to the 50, but their drive stalls on an incomplete third and nine pass (that would have been good except for a Mike Morris bat-down).  OSU is feeling snake-bit at this point.  M 7 – OSU 3.  Q2 12:14.

Michigan’s 4th Drive:  Michigan goes three and out at their own 13 after gaining just 3 yards.  Haskins gets stoned at the line on 2 consecutive plays – one of the rare times that happens in this game – leaving Cade with a third and long that goes incomplete.  A missed opportunity while Ohio State is struggling.  Now Michigan is getting a little nervous.  M 7 – OSU 3.  Q2 10:51.

Ohio State’s 4th Drive:  OSU strikes on 2 long Stroud completions for a touchdown.  Now the game is starting to look like everybody thought it would . . . Michigan starts off well on its scripted drive but then turtles, while OSU shakes off its slow start and begins to assert itself through the air.  This feels like it could get out of hand quickly if Michigan does not respond immediately.  M 7 – OSU 10.  Q2 9:12.   

Michigan’s 5th Drive:  One of the most important drives of the game.  Michigan desperately needed to answer OSU’s score, and answer they did.  Michigan went 82 yards in 13 plays for a touchdown, chewing up 5:21 on the clock.  The drive was highlighted by Cade’s 37 yard pass to Corn to the Ohio State 2 yard line.  OSU tested Cade with single coverage so they could focus on Haskins, and Cade burned them.  M 14 – OSU 10.  Q2 3:51.

Ohio State’s 5th Drive:  Now Ohio State needed to answer back, but once again they could only get a field goal out of their 12 play 62 yard drive.  On third and 7 at the Michigan 17, Stroud and Smith-Njigba could only get 4 yards.  Here is where effective Michigan offense helped the Michigan defense.  In a normal mid-season game, OSU would have gone for this on fourth and three.  But they were feeling the pressure of Michigan being able to move the ball effectively on them on long time-consuming drives, and were afraid to take the chance that they would not make it.  They felt they needed points and chickened out with the field goal.  M 14 – OSU 13.  Q2 0:09.   

Michigan’s 6th Drive:  With only 9 seconds until halftime Haskins runs for 3 yards from the Michigan 22.  M 14 – OSU 13.  Q2 0:00.

HALFTIME:  Michigan is feeling chippy and confident.  Michigan Tunnel Fight 1.0 commences.

Ohio State’s 6th Drive:  This drive contains arguably the play of the game.  Ohio State receives the ball to start the half.  They intend to come out, march down the field for a TD, and reassert their dominance over what they still viewed as an inferior opponent.  But Michigan had other ideas.  On 3rd and 2 from the OSU 33, Michigan LB Josh Ross penetrates the line and blows up OSU RB Henderson for a loss.  OSU has to punt.  You could smell the fear.  This is the point in the game where we all started to believe that this could happen.  M 14 – OSU 13.  Q3 13:05.   

Michigan’s 7th Drive:  If the Ross third and two stop is arguably the play of the game, this drive is arguably the drive of the game.  A touchdown here puts Ohio State in full freak-out mode.  And that is exactly what emphatically happened.  Michigan pounds it right at Ohio State and scores in just 3 rushing plays:  A Corum 13 yard run, the big Corum 55 yard run, and a Haskins 13 yard run for a TD.  It was like the OSU defense was not even there.  Now everyone knew Ohio State was in trouble.  M 21 – OSU 13.  Q3 11:50.

Ohio State’s 7th Drive:  Ohio State needed to answer, but they couldn’t, courtesy of a key sack by Aidan Hutchinson on third and 9 at the OSU 43.  Yet another false start penalty by OSU on second down set up this third and 9.  THANK YOU MICHIGAN CROWD.  M 21 – OSU 13.  Q3 8:19.   

Michigan’s 8th Drive:  The damn breaks.  Michigan scores another touchdown on a 5 play 78 yard drive.  This drive is interesting because it starts with three straight Cade passes for 6 yards to Edwards, 31 yards to Wilson, and 34 yards to Sainristil.  This was clearly set up by the three straight successful pounding runs on the previous Michigan drive.  Hat’s off to the Michigan coaches for not turtling here and staying aggressive and taking what the defense was giving.  M 28 – OSU 13.  Q3 5:49.

Ohio State’s 8th Drive:  Ohio State finally answers with a touchdown, but it takes them forever.  Michigan plays bend-but-don’t-break defense and makes OSU go the long and laborious way: 17 plays for 82 yards with almost 7 minutes of clock consumed.  M 28 – OSU 20.  Q4 14:05.   

Michigan’s 9th Drive:  Another important drive.  OSU’s defense has gotten a rest after their long TD drive and is looking to make a stop, down only a TD and 2 point conversion.  But that was wishful thinking.  The Michigan offense is on a roll now and they score a touchdown on 9 plays for 66 yards, and eat up almost 5 minutes of clock doing it.  The drive was set up by a 22 yard AJ Henning kick return to the Michigan 34.  From there the drive is all runs (including a 9 yard Cade run) except for one Edwards pass.  A key pass interference penalty on Ohio State on 3rd and 2 keeps the drive alive and takes Michigan deep into the red zone where Corum and Haskins runs finish it off.  It is clear by now that Ohio State is not going to be able to stop any Michigan drives.  M 35 – OSU 20.  Q4 9:14.

Ohio State’s 9th Drive:  Ohio State answers with another touchdown to once again get within one score.  But Michigan once again makes Ohio State go the long way to do it, on a time consuming 13 play 75 yard drive.  M 35 – OSU 27.  Q4 4:45.   

Michigan’s 10th Drive:  The Michigan offense is not going to be denied at this point.  They smell blood.  AJ Henning once again sets up the drive with a 26 yard return to the Michigan 37. (Note to 2021 Ohio State from the future – stop kicking it to him.)  The drive is all Haskins runs for 15 yards, 6 yards, 11 yards, 27 yards, and 4 yards for the walk-in TD that OSU gave up on.  Had OSU made a stop during this drive, they would have had the ball back with two or three minutes left, down only a TD + 2 point conversion.  But it never felt like OSU could ever make that stop.  Hassan Haskins and his O-Line were never going to allow it.  M 42 – OSU 27.  Q4 2:17.

Ohio State’s 10th Drive:  It’s just a formality now.  The Michigan defense can pin back its ears and go after Stroud.  They do . . . O-Ja-BO!  OSU’s final 4th down pass is short of the sticks and they turn it over on downs.  M 42 – OSU 27.  Q4 0:58.

Michigan’s 11th Drive:  VICTORY FORMATION!  M 42 – OSU 27.  Q4 0:00.

 

SO, CAN MICHIGAN DO IT AGAIN?:

On Offense:  Potentially yes, but with two big caveats. 

On paper at least, this offense should be the equal of last years.  Most of the stars of last year are back, and some are more refined now . . . Edwards receiving game, JJ’s legs, Schoonie’s possession receiving.  There are some new stars as well:  Rimington award finalist Olu Oluwatimi at Center, Colston Loveland at TE, a healthy Ronnie Bell.  The O-Line looks to be even better than last year.  This offense is built to be able to execute last year’s Ohio State game plan.  But there are two big caveats:

1) Blake Corum must be available, and be close to 100%.  The unquestioned hero of last year’s Ohio State win on offense was Hassan Haskins.  He made that offense go.  He kept all of those long multi-play possession drives going.  He kept Michigan ahead of the chains: He was good for at least 3 yards on virtually every 1st down.  He was also a third / fourth down machine, converting all of them that he ran.  He, more than anyone else, was responsible for Michigan’s scoring drives resulting in touchdowns instead of field goals.

Hassan Haskins seemed impossible to replace . . . but, by damn, Blake Corum is doing it.  Corum is not quite the pile-mover that Haskins was, but he is slippery, his micro-cuts find smaller piles and then he moves those piles with his thunder legs.  He is not replaceable against Ohio State.  As good as the O-Line is, it is not going to turn Stokes or Gash or even Edwards into Corum.  Michigan will go only as far as Bake Corum can take them.   

2) Scoring drives need to be touchdown drives.  Controlling the ball against Ohio State with long multi-play drives is the right game plan, but those drives need to be paid off with touchdowns.  A look at last year shows that as well as Michigan played on offense, if only two of its drives were field goals instead of touchdowns, it’s a tie game with two and a half minutes left in the 4th quarter. 

Michigan has not been good at that this year, but they are going to have to be against Ohio State.  We have to hope that Michigan really has been “saving plays” for Ohio State, because they are going to need touchdown scoring drives.  Field goals are a disaster.  Punts are death. 

As far as JJ goes, an honest evaluation would say that he is not where we wanted him to be at this point.  But we are where we are.  He can still do this.  He does not need to hit 40 yard bombs to beat Ohio State.  He just needs to replicate the kind of possession passing that Cade did last year.  He just needs to hit the open areas that the OSU Safety’s and LB’s evacuate as they try to shut down Corum.

Indiana and Illinois have now written the book on defending Michigan . . . go with the Don Brown plan.  Play man on our receivers that are not very good at getting separation, and come hard after the QB and RB.  Ohio State is going do the same thing.  We need to help JJ out by giving him some quick hitters – slants, bubble screens, quick throws when the DBs are playing off.

We should also get JJ involved in the running game beyond just QB scrambles.  He has made it to the Ohio State game healthy, now use him.  He would actually benefit from running the ball some and taking some hits.  He plays better when he is fully engaged in the game and not just managing it.  It keeps him from overthinking it.

Michigan should seriously consider receiving the ball to start the game if they get the choice.  They have been excellent on opening drives this season, scoring on virtually every single one.  Scoring first sends a message and immediately puts the pressure on Ohio State to keep up with Michigan, versus the other way around.  Michigan scored first last year and it got in OSU’s head.  It put them under continuous pressure to keep up the rest of the game.  OSU was uncomfortable all game, they could never get separation from Michigan.   

On Defense:  This is going to be a tough challenge.  Some breaks are going to have to go our way.

On one of the TV broadcasts this season they showed stats for CJ Stroud under pressure.  He regresses to a 50%ish passer under pressure.  He likes to get in rhythm in a clean pocket, he does not like to scramble and get hit.  Last year we had Hutchinson and Ojabo to put the pressure on him and sack him, and he still passed for 394 yards at 69.4% with 2 TDs and no INTs.  This year we have . . . ??  Michigan has not been good at getting pressure on QBs with just the D-Line.

Minter is going to have to reach deep into his bag of tricks to come up with some well-timed blitzes that get home before Stroud goes off.  He can’t let Stroud just sit back there and leisurely survey the field.  He will have to take some gambles that we hope pay off.  Fingers crossed.

Michigan will need to move Stroud around and make him keep his feet moving.  Pressure and movement are more important than actual sacks.  Michigan cannot over-pursue Stroud in search of sacks to the point that he gets away and has a clear field of vision in front of him.  He is deadly then.  He will also run, as we found out in their Northwestern game.  Michigan must always keep a defender between Stroud’s face and his receiver’s face. 

The other big concern on defense is how they will react to the crowd in Ohio Stadium.  And by “they” I mean the referees.  We have never gotten a fair whistle at Ohio Stadium, and it won’t start now.  This especially hurts us on defense because pass interference is one of the most subjective calls a referee can make.  You could probably call it on every play if you wanted to.  Given how much OSU passes versus Michigan, there are going to be a lot of opportunities for those subjective PI calls.  You can expect multiple Ohio State drives to be extended on phantom PI calls that would not be called in some other mid-season game.

All of that being said, I am more optimistic about our chances on defense after reviewing last year’s Ohio State game than I was before.  As well as Michigan played on defense, they were NOT dominant, despite the final score.  They played bend (a LOT of bend) but don’t break, and held on for dear life while they made a handful of key stops.  Michigan’s “successful” effort on defense last year came down to getting one more stop than Ohio State’s defense, and making Ohio State settle for 2 field goals instead of 2 touchdowns.  That’s it.  But that was enough.

That seems replicable, with some luck.  So yeah, the game plan is the same as last year: Play bend-but-don’t-break defense, keep everything in front of you, hold them to less than 100 yards rushing, and make them go the long way on dinks and dunks.  Hope for a hiccup along the way and if that does not happen, look to hold them to a field goal versus a touchdown. A handful of those is all you can expect, but like last year, a handful may be just enough.

In conclusion, if Michigan executes their game plan the way they should, this matchup will pretty much come down to who can have better red zone success.  Last year it was us.  This year that is not really a contest we want to be in.  But in it we are.  Hope for some 2021 Michigan red zone magic to rub off on 2022 Michigan.

GO BLUE!