From the maker of the weekly 'What Did I Just Watch?!?' I regret to inform you that I had time to do a Bowl Preview. 

Best viewed in native format:

https://peasanthandbook.com/2019/12/20/the-big-time-busters-bowl-preview/

 

The Peasant Handbook Presents:

The Big Time Busters Bowl Preview

2019

 

19th century armies were notoriously undisciplined. The relative novelty of being told to stand in a line across from some busters who were firing en masse at your static position has this wild effect of, oh idk, prompting a question of WTF R WE DOING GIYZ. Further, maintaining unit cohesion in the cacophony and smoke was even more difficult than enforcing line discipline. And when the enemy line had broken, the men are liable to forgo the all important rout and instead loot the carcasses of their foes. At Chancellorsville, a bloody spar in the Civil War, Confederate general James Longstreet had broken a gap in the Union lines, his men flooding through like blood through a broken scab. But when their proximal foes had sounded the horn, the men decided to loot the fallen. The gap in the Union lines then closed, and the breakthrough could not be exploited. 

 

Looting is an inherent facet of the human condition - made even more prevalent in armies, where the rich seldom find themselves on the front lines - but it is also a key facet of morale. Hey, catch your breath while you bundle up some okra from this fallen Ohioan. Look, I can take home this tattered picture of the family goat to my plantation…!

 WHY WHAT'S THIS CRACKER BARREL GIFT CARD DOING HERE

*Dissention in the ranks*

*Counter rebellion begins over possession of said gift card*

*New faction is known as ‘The Crackers’*

 

The Bowl games now remind me of the ritual of looting. A season of varying success is rewarded by the chance for plunder. The Bowl sponsors hand out gift bags. The youngsters get a well-deserved trip to somewhere fun, like uh Detroit in December or Mobile, Alabama(When a city is an adjective, something is wrong). But bowl season is less about the better team and more about the force more keen on exploiting the breakthrough. While the diminished importance of the bowl game allows the losers to wave it off and grumble about Christmas, a victory is akin to a breakthrough of a successful season, and when exploited, provides tangible results for the subsequent campaign.

 

With a bowl victory, the off season is populated with nifty adage of conquest. Succulent victory lingers on the tongue and sweetens the muchly worded football hiatus with hopeful suggestion. There is real juice to be squeezed from a bowl victory, and every drop serves to fuel the build to the following campaign. Bowl games are often a metric for the health of a program, and vacuous indicators of progress. Toss out the nuanced expectations of conference play and rivalries and ‘Oh well playing at Kinnick is like agreeing to bring potato salad to a dinner in HELL’ and provides a game with *shakes hand, purses lips* parity that offers a showcase of da yoof and fun trickerations that didn’t emerge during the season. 

 

The most damning criticism against the playoffs is that it has delegitimize the bowl games. Even the Rose Bowl - the venerable, sacred, magical Rose Bowl - has to reassert itself from time to time, something unimaginable to observers of the 10 years war or South Californian strumpets of the 80’s. And the playoffs is more of an invitational reserved for a group of at most 6 teams at the start of the year. There is an assured caste of semi-professional units whose success compounds recruiting which compounds success which compounds recruiting (OSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, Bama, welcome LSU, ect…) who are guaranteed a spot and then if the plebs are lucky they’ll sneak a team in, only to be obliterated when the contest starts. (And yet playoff expansion is a hot topic…) 

 

But here at the Peasant Handbook, despite our iconoclastic tendencies, it has become a personal mission to restore the bowls to their former glory, much like when I annually go through my 5th grade yearbook and reenact arguments with my newly bolstered emotional intelligence and maturity. (YAS MY DAD CUD STILL BEET UP UR DAD)

 

These are not meaningless games, because in College Football, no game is meaningless. My emphasis is always on the narrative of the season, the heartbeat of a program, the fears and worries and dreams of the institution behind them. And in such a scope, no event is lacking in weight. I’m just going to say it, guys. F&#@ the playoffs. We the commoners have long rebelled, be it at the Roman Forum, the storming of the Bastille, the nationalization of Iran’s oil reserves; why now would we surrender to the aristocracy and allow them dominion of our hearts and minds? If we concede the meaningless nature of the bowl games, we’re telling the big boys that they’re right, that we’re only fodder for their seeding resume. We’re eagerly agreeing that the 1% should have 99% of the goods. 

 

Nay, I say! Rise up! Fuck Red Lobster biscuits. Have you been to freaking Cracker Barrel, tried those Biscy’s? And fuck Cracker Barrel but dammit its dank. Long ago my waiter learned that he’ll make a dollar tip per biscuit brought. We the plebs must support each other, plunder the emotional monopoly from the self anointed chosen elite. Roar in victory and weep in defeat for your bowl bound team, I beg of thee! Surrender not to the apathy the elite wish to instill in us, to further obfuscate their insecurity at the realization that all good things must end! Do not allow them to quash our dreams, timid as they may be. IDK WTF the Boca Roton Bowl is, but fuck it, why not have a, uh, Boca Roton trophy sitting in the case? And should the winning team assume it means nothing, why then would anybody else think it worthy? Look at UCF. They made a bullshit claim to a national title a few years back and guess what? We’ve gotten so tired of explaining that the NCAA bylaw is outdated that we don’t even care anymore. They chose to believe in their self worth. And it got them a national championship*.

 

So please. Don’t perpetuate the myth that these games are meaningless. This is your team. These are your players. Is their sweat and blood and ambition meaningless to you? And should a no-show occur, does that not indicate their need for additional support, or condemn the lack of it leading up to the game? 

 

I got my cat another toy a few days back. It’s a banana filled with cat nip. And when he plays with it, its a thing of beauty. He throws it into the air. He snatches it with flexed claws. The drug-vapors fill the air (From, uh, his toy, of course) and I sit and pride swells into me. Somewhere in the world a tiger is shredding a wildebeest limb from limb. A jaguar is disemboweling a pregnant caribou in front of its family. A leopard is slaughtering a coven of peacocks during family reunion. My little Monty is not scoring divine felinity on a grand scale; but in our little world in my dim living room, he’s winning the most important battle of all, his battle against that damn ‘nana.

 

We could all learn a little something from Monty. 

 

--

 

You can find playoff talk anywhere. It’s inflated importance would have you believe that nothing else matters. I will not be spending any time talking about the playoffs. This is about the teams that are the meat and apples of College Football, the heartbeat of the sport. If you want playoff coverage, some excellent writers will no doubt spend a lot of time expressing their views. If you want nonsensical, over-emotional, vapid yet provocative coverage of everything else, you are in the right place. Well. The right place to be wrong. The wrong place that is right for you. The - you know. 

 

Buster Bowls

 

The Rose Bowl

#6 Oregon Vs #8 Wisconsin

The omnipresent ‘they’ (and most mothers) claim that no good deed goes unpunished. It's a rather self serving notion, hunting for pity and readily ascribing victimhood. But should we not punish good deeds? Would the deed not become all the greater for sustaining under strife, becoming a noble forbearance in the face of resistance? 

 

Nay, quacks Oregon. Verily the Ducks have been punished for their good deed, that of scheduling a respectable OOC game against Auburn. Despite *generally* playing the better game, they lost on a last second touchdown throw against a QB who spent most of the year struggling. Replace that game with a contest against Downtown Abbey A&M; the inevitable conference slip up - their loss against Arizona State - is summarily forgiven and with the PAC 12 crown and only one loss, a legitimate debate sees a coin flip to seat Oregon in the playoffs. 

 

But ‘twas not to be. Oregon and their bold schedule must be punished. And in our strange world, the Rose Bowl is this punishment. In what should be a lauded matchup between two rich programs is instead seen as the best of the rest, when verily, the Rose Bowl and all its magnetism should be center stage. And thusly shall the grandaddy of ‘em all be regarded in this here space.

 

Wisconsin began the season looking like a legitimate playoff contender. They ended it devoutly short of this position after being emotionally dominated by Ohio State. Yea, it sounds funny to say, but tell me how else to perceive it. It’s clear that from a mechanical footballing perspective Wisconsin could hang with the playoff bound Buckeyes. But the dread of ‘Oh no’ caused dropped balls and nervous coverage and when they lost their belief it all went to hell. But to Bucky’s credit, this could have happened much earlier in the season. After playing fodder to Illinois’ baptism Wisconsin could have decided cheese to be the better part of valor and pattered their way to mediocrity. Instead, they assembled a fine campaign that culminated in a definitive, assertive victory against Minnesota to retake Paul Bunyan’s axe, and with it, the West division.

 

Where QB Jack Coan was spectacularly efficient in the early season, he saw an inevitable dip in their two game skid midseason. While he never gained the explosiveness that the Wisconsin offense needs to evolve, he did regain his largely complementary play. Remember, Coan only needs to be threatening to allow the stellar RB Johnathon Taylor the space to torture opponents. But against an excellent defense, it’s hard to win when your offense cannot make explosive plays. Wisconsin would be the cream of the crop in the 80’s, but now they're more cream cheese to the gouda of the elite.

 

Oregon is, statistically, such a defense that could force Coan into winning football. While they don’t have any D lineman at the 300 pound mark, they do have a number of DT’s in the 290 range. Thus, they can likely prevent getting paved like Michigan’s undersized line was early in the year. This is a far cry from the nimble yet light Oregon defenses of years past, and the recency gives pause - but Oregon is indeed a fine defensive unit. They held seven opponents to under 10 points, and were victimized only by PAC-12 scramboozlery in a few games that saw opponents reach the 30’s, but never higher. Those offenses - the Washington’s, ASU, and Auburn - do have some thing  in common with Wisconsin, but also have some key differences. First is the more ready athleticism of the quarterbacks, who used their agility to escape Oregon’s talented DE’s, like 2018’s top recruit Keven Thibeduex. Coan isn’t exactly a beaver in the bath water but nor is he a velociraptor. I also can’t help but notice the run-first, pro style approach of the aforementioned offensive units. Thus, balance is key to attacking Oregon. Wisconsin can excel at this but it requires their receivers to make plays, as Coan is generally hesitant to attack deep. 

 

Any athletic shortcomings from the Wisconsin defense may not be punishable offences. Where Oregon made their ~Chip Kelley hay was with little squirrels who preformed orbit motion before receiving a screen flip and somehow teleporting 5 yard down the field in an instant. Oregon certainly has some playmakers, touting a whopping 7 players who have at least 10 yards per catch (at least 10 catches). And while receiver Johnny Johnson III is an overall stud, I don’t see the sideline slippage that can cause disaster for a more...stodgy than speedy defense at Wisconsin. In other words, Oregon more resembles a traditional pro-style spread than the jingle-jangles of years past. This bodes well for an overall excellent Wisconsin defense.

 

I expect Oregon will look to take away Taylor, and it is extremely difficult to predict the results of this venture, as it will depend entirely on Coan’s success. If Coan goes 16-19 but only hits fullbacks in the flat for 4 yard gains, Oregon will do what every good defense does - take away your strength. Safeties will creep, DE’s will collapse and fret little for scramble contain, and linebackers will charge through, all resulting in a bottled up Johnathon Taylor. If Coan at least threatens 20 yard routes down the middle to Quintez Cephus and his busters, the entire equation changes, and I can see Taylor wearing down an Oregon defense that hasn’t really had to deal with a power attack this year. Even one or two long completions over the Rose Bowl logo will drastically alter this game.

 

Of course, I’d be remiss to ignore a gentleman who will certainly be playing next year in College Football’s disgusting, over-eager facsimile, the NFL. Oregon QB Justin Herbert returned somewhat surprisingly, and has indeed been excellent, but I sense some mild disappointment from Ducks fans that he hasn’t exactly advanced as much as one would expect from a coulda-been NFL player. He seems to have little pockets of simply confounding play, like against ASU, when he spent a chunk of the third quarter throwing consecutive interceptions and generally missing everything badly. And then a few minutes later, he was a machine. Herbert will play ~30 minutes of good football, ~20 minutes of excellent football, and ~10 minutes of WHY. The ‘what’ and ‘how bad’ will go a long way in determining Oregon’s chances.

 

Unqualified Prediction based on emotional impulse, substance abuse, and confirmation bias:

 

Do we see a universe in which Oregon was actually named ‘The Mallards?’ It’s probably the same one in which I am Vice Chancellor of the UN and institute a law banning the NFL, make CFB Saturday a holiday, excommunicate myself vicariously through the pope, compel everybody to take a daily nap, make Apple Juice a national drink, and immolate myself after a long bout with scurvy caused by a ready access to limitless film of ‘inside the booth’ reaction shots from Verne Lundquist. As for the sports game, this Rose Bowl is emblematic of the cultural orgy the Rose Bowl has always been intended as. We have the spacious, charismatic Mallards of Oregon against the trodden stoicism of the Badgers. Cheese and...timber, or something. Will Coan be able to decompress the Oregon defense that Taylor is not subjected to the undivided attention of 11 athletic Oregon defenders? How bad will Herbert’s bad be? We hardly mentioned Oregon’s resurgent run game, because I expect Wisconsin will generally prevent it from being the impact facet of the game; Herbert will have to win this game for Oregon. Both teams have veteran presence, but I think Wisconsin’s run blocking is going to wear on the Ducks.  

 

Winner: Wisconsin

What to watch for: For years I thought a laundry Hamper was called a hampster. This...this explains so much. Johnathon Taylor and his ability to reach the linebackers; said linebackers and their depth of play and specifically watch them after/if Coan begins to hit throws over the middle of the field after playaction. Also if Oregon abandons the run game.

Do Goats pose a retroactive vector for ebola: AGENDA ITEM SET

The Citrus Bowl

#13 Michigan Vs #14 Alabama

 

He’s...he’s where? 

Well, I - why isn’t he in Cannes? Or Bruges? No? I mean, I guess. Ok.

*Shit gets real. Patton gets deployed back to the Western Front.*

 

During D-Day, Patton was eating tea and sipping crumpets on South Eastern England. Much like the prior sentence, the world was expecting something different. Surely the famed Patton must be at the front lines. Surely Cracker Barrel will realize how much money they could make if they build a location on my porch. Surely my ex-girlfriends will realize what they’re missing out on when they see my book “Scrample Von Le Scruff: The History of Yeast Infections in Pan Slavic Notary Agents” is published. 

 

But no. Patton was not present on they the famed sands of yore. The man who had become legend, dynasty, for his victories would not be in the field.

 

And so Alabama - to the delight of many, I imagine - is set to miss the seasons seminal battle for the first time. Where Patton was punished for slapping some soldiers, ‘Bama was left out for their second loss, though they too had an infraction: The ease of their schedule was somewhat dispiriting. Four comedic games against hopelessly overmatched #meatsax meant that their only games against ranked teams were must wins. They did not win. Those convinced of Karmas agency will proclaim it just that they lost their de-facto playoff game against LSU and again in the Iron Bowl, but we all must concede the tragedy of losing College Football’s most exciting player in Tua ‘I still don’t know how to spell this and stopped caring a long time ago’. Notably, Alabama was one missed chip shot away from taking the Iron Bowl into overtime, and this was with TWO pick sixes, one of which occurred in their own endzone. It is not difficult to imagine a world in which Alabama wins the Iron Bowl with room to spare.

 

But it does not change the primary flaw of this years rendition, which is that of a faulty defense. Sure, it’s not their fault; injuries have been absurd, and the coaching turnover finally appears to be leaving its mark (That it hasn’t already is testament to Saban’s immeasurable ability). They want not for talent. But the defensive line doesn’t simply swallow up players any longer. The young linebackers are tentative in coverage and this opens up the middle of the field for 4-6 yard rushing pops. And the secondary - victimized by a D-Line that simply hasn’t produced in critical moments - has been hammered at times. Saban has taken a more ‘don’t get beat’ approach and tries to force teams to drive the length of the field, more willing to concede yardage than in years past. And it’s probably the right play. They have ample talent that plays enough will be made against inferior competition. But Joe Burrow ravaged them (Granted, he’s ravaged everyone) and a balanced Auburn team found consistent success, even with their spotty QB play. They either out-talent everyone to such an absurd margin that scheme, injuries, and mistakes don’t matter. Or the aforementioned factors do, and it leads to points for the opposition.

 

Bama is a pretty flimsy 10-2; that is, they could easily be 13-0 and in the playoffs, even if they lack a signature win on the year. Michigan has good reason to be intimidated, as ‘Bama is still one of the best teams in the nation and somehow is relegated to a non-NY6 Bowl. Even with Tua out, backup QB Mac Jones has been prolific and effective. He’s not liable to throw two pick 6’s in a game again, which means that his 300+ yard outbursts portend well for Alabama’s absurdly talented receiver room, led by Jerry Juedy. RB Najee Harris is a monster, a clone of the ‘Bama Bo Scarbrough types who are too powerful for how agile they are. It's made even more impressive when considering that Alabama’s offensive line lacks its trademark tractor status. 

 

And this will come into play against Michigan’s undersized interior. The Wolverines hope that da yoof can step in - Chris Hinton particularly - and add some girth to a middle that was eviscerated in their two big losses on the year. It stresses Michigan’s defense and causes safeties to creep up - thus getting burned deep like they did against OSU, something that only happened once prior for the whole year, and against KJ Hamler at that. The linebackers, good as they are led by Cam McGrone, also get antsy and charge inside to compensate and find edge contain spoiled, which JK Dobbins and Johnathon Taylor abused to great effect. If Alabama is finding success between the guards expect a painful day for the Michigan defense, much to the tune of what we saw against OSU and Wiscy. If Mac Jones has limited exposure and Bama can maintain a balanced attack, it will get ugly.

 

I expect Michigan to find success with QB Shea Patterson and his late season emergence. He’s playing like the 5-star he was always touted as, and Michigan’s excellent receiving corps will find space between the boundary and the hashes. We haven’t seen many impact plays from Bama’s secondary on the year, and the ol’ Nico Collins jump ball should be a common attack point. Harbuagh’s calling card offensively is deceiving linebackers and we saw Michigan neutralize Chase Young; if Michigan can mitigate star Bama linemen Anferee Jennings and toy with Bama’s young backers, they too should be able to maintain a balanced attack. 

 

But as all bowls are decided, morale will be the most crucial factor. We saw it with Georgia and Michigan just last year; teams on the edge of the playoffs who expect to be in the final bracket and do not make the cut have a tendency to no-show, and this can be compounded by being relegated even further and missing out on a NY6 game, as Alabama was. This is like asking for a PS4 for Christmas and getting a faxer; too far a fall to comprehend. Michigan had the good fortune to play an unmotivated Florida team to close the 2015 season and won this bowl game in blowout fashion; the Gators returned the favor last year in the Peach Bowl against a flat Michigan. It’s extremely difficult to gauge the Tide’s interest. Their last non-glamor bowl showing was an evisceration of Michigan State in this very bowl about a decade ago. Their losses were dispiriting, particularly the Iron Bowl defeat. But they lack a signature win on the year, and this here be their opportunity. Michigan, on the other hand, knew early they weren’t playoff material. They have managed a signature win of sorts, but the season has hardly been validated. I’d guess Michigan is less delfated than Alabama, but betting against Saban’s motivational prowess is generally a terrible move. 

 

Unqualified Prediction based on emotional impulse, substance abuse, and confirmation bias:

 

I expect a shootout. Alabama will look to attack Michigan’s undersized interior, which will cause a chain reaction ultimately projecting to net the Tide some 400+ yards, with at least 150 on the ground. Juedy and his pals would present problems for an NFL secondary and will make significant plays, even against Michigan’s good/great secondary. Mac Jones must only look to limit his mistakes and allow Harris and the gang to produce. They will. And while I see Patterson hitting the 300 yard mark and the Michigan RB room managing 100+ yards, it won’t be enough. Alabama is athletic enough on defense even with their errors that they’ll only need 3-5 stops to put the shootout in favor of the Tide. Michigan will be able to hang close and I expect a spirited effort, even an early lead. But as Alabama realizes that, though they may not have come into the game wanting to win as badly as they would in a playoff game, they certainly don’t want to lose. A big second half from the Tides skill players closes the deal.

 

Winner: Alabama, 42-31

What to watch for: Michigan’s secondary strained in run support and thus being beat deep by Bama’s excellent receivers. Also, will Harbaugh wear khaki shorts. Khorts.

Is my life a lie: Yes, but I have resigned to a world in which there are youtube mice with more clout than me. I still aspire to be a freelance underwater log recovery agent.

 

The Outback Bowl

#12 Auburn Vs #18 Minnesota

 

It was a surprise when I discovered that the Confederate Ironclad the C.S.S Virginia was not the first ship of its style. Indeed, most Americans believe the innovation was first had in the muddy waters of the Mississippi, but it was in fact the French who first launched the Gloire in 1859. And while we imagine the ironclad as a squat bunker of seaworthy steel, the Gloire was, in fact, nearly indistinguishable from contemporary ships, aside from its iron lined hull. And in the moment the Gloire first slipped into the warm waters of Marseille, in an abstract sense, all other ships of all the world's navies had become obsolete.

 

And so P.J Fleck, he of nautical allegory and cosmic ascendancy, has constructed a vessel at Minnesota that finally appears a match for the other nationally steeled programs. The Golden Gophers are indeed seaworthy, and worthy to be seen. And while a season in which a program can aspire to championship games in November finds itself relegated to what convention would now dictate as a ‘meaningless game’ can be at risk for a letdown, it is in fact a vital game for the Gophers, and the Auburn Tigers. Yes, yes, we all lament the reduced vigor of the bowl games. But try telling that to the players at kickoff. And for these two programs, this bowl game signifies the launching of a new era. Fleck has enough steam that he won’t have to row this boat any longer, and Auburn is looking for more consistent success on the roaring waves of the SEC. This will certainly be a game to...monitor.

*Gives toothy grin, looking around room. No reaction. Cat gives dour looks. Andrew dejectedly looks down, remembering that 19th century naval history is not, in fact, considered casual parlance.*

 

It was not so long ago that the Outback Bowl was exclusively owned by Iowa seen as a quite respectable bowl, and as a proponent of restoring respectability to bowl games, I again posit the importance of any game played on New Years day. This is particularly true for Minnesota. For much of the year, their low ranking belied their lofty record; the argument, of course, centered around the fact that ‘they hadn’t beaten anyone’. This changed with Penn State, but a tough stretch to finish the year - a loss @ Iowa, and against Wisconsin - left the Gophers with a somewhat hollow record, though it does little to subtract from the amazing accomplishment of 2019. Thus, a win against Auburn would prove crucial in validating the season. It would prove immeasurably beneficial for Minny to end the year beating a respected SEC team, especially because everyone will likely get out their transitive-dar and conclude that Minnesota beat Alabama. But more important than perception will be the Gophers seeing their own program as one who can win these kinds of games. Their win against Penn State was excellent, but it was also a perfect storm of sorts and a favorable matchup(And a narrow victory). Minneapolis had nearly a decade of energy in that stadium - it was absolutely electric  and made Minnesota feel unbeatable - and it played no small part in pushing the Gophers to victory, and the Nittany Lions were ‘due’ for a loss(9-0 at the time), as some have said. This was followed by a tough loss in Kinnick, and then a disembowelment at the hands of a highly motivated Wisconsin team. This is forgivable. This is all forgivable. Unlike that time I attempted to steal 3 cats. Apparently “My cat told me to” is not considered a viable excuse.

 

And so a loss to Auburn would enforce in the minds of the Gophers that they aren’t ‘there’ yet. Minnesota needs - for their own confidence of a nascent program - a win against a team exactly like Auburn. And this Auburn team spent much of the year losing to the SEC’s best teams. Their year was almost exactly chalk, the Iron Bowl aside(account for rivalry scramboozlery accordingly). While many will expect Auburn to win, they too need validation for the year, though I worry their motivation will be lesser than that of Minnesota’s. The War Eagle won their most important game. They are playing what the SEC surely sees as an ‘upstart’ Minnesota program, thus robbing them the panache of a ‘program’ win. But they musn’t make the mistake of undervaluing a 10 win season. Guz Malzhan’s biggest issue on The Plains has been the flirtations with mediocrity, like the 2015-2016 stretch that saw them go 16-10. This is a fear that is, in many ways, worse than abject suckage. When your team is 3-9, you assume forces are conspiring to kick start things. A new coach will come in, an offensive system will be overhauled, the players are young, ect… But Auburn has to worry about being relegated to second class status in their own state. And a 10 win season, while devoid of the championships the Tigers so desperately wish for, is emphatically not mediocrity, even if expectations are so wildly exaggerated at some programs that it says at much.

 

While Auburn may lack motivation, thus mitigating any analysis performed, I see two teams who are generally well matched but for a physical advantage centered around Auburn’s defensive line. Minnesota’s line play steadily improved over the season but ran into its rough patches against the strong lines of Iowa and Wisconsin. Auburn’s D line may just be better. And if the Gophers can’t get RB’s Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith going, then they will once again be reliant on Tanner Morgan’s absurd efficiency. Sure, he’s generally come through, showing clearly to be the best QB the Gophers have had since...a while. But relying on a QB to hit 80% of his passes against a line that can generate pressure is not always a winning strategy, even if Morgan has two of the best Wide Receivers in the country to throw to in Bateman and Johnson. Fleck will have to call a masterful game in order to use Auburn’s aggressiveness against them, because I don’t see a conventional attack gathering consistent yards against Auburn. 

 

The last sentence probably triggered Auburn fans. Consistent. That’s all they’ve wanted from Bo Nix. While he played winning football against ‘Bama, every other loss Auburn sustained was due almost exclusively to Nix’s frustrating inconsistency with his accuracy. Against Georgia, it was a miss on a 4 yard flat route that drove the nail. Against LSU he wasn’t even hitting half of his downfield passes. Generally speaking, Nix hasn’t been able to hit 50% of his throws against good defensive units. 

 

Minnesota is... a hard unit to diagnose. They can play very sound team defense but also go through stretches of terrible tackling and can take poor angles in coverage. There have also been times when the defensive line merely exists. And this is despite having the excellent Antonie Winfield prowling at safety. Even an average amount of pressure could stir Nix into his usual troubles, which then leaves the game into the hands of Minnesota’s run defense. This unit, too, has been very inconsistent. In their marquee games, they’ve given up at least 110 yards, even to an Iowa team that has proven to be highly ineffective at running against good competition. While it is no surprise to see the Gophers stuff three consecutive runs and force a punt, so too do they regularly surrender 5-7 yard runs. Against an Auburn team that loves neutralizing defensive lineman and fooling around with linebackers, I’m concerned. 

 

Unqualified Prediction based on emotional impulse, substance abuse, and confirmation bias:

 

I think Morgan will have a classic Morgan game; 18-25, 230 yards, maybe find a hamster in the washing machine at the hotel. I also think the Gophers will manage to get tricky and squeeze out 80, maybe 100 yards rushing attacking the edges, as Fleck will earn his money and scheme some yards. But over the course of the game, Nix won’t have to be the catalyst for an Auburn victory. He’ll use the option game to wear Minnesota down and I see a fourth quarter in which Auburn is running quite freely. But this is IF Auburn is as motivated as Minnesota, and frankly, I’m not sure if that’s going to be the case. If Auburn was happy to conclude their season with that thrilling win in the Iron Bowl, then Minnesota can probably outhustle them to a 31-24 win. But if the teams are evenly matched, the more mature program will use its experience playing elite teams all year and log 70+ fourth quarter rushing yards en route to a 34-21 win. 

 

Winner: Auburn, 34-21

What to watch for: Is the UN a front for a global conspiracy centered around Pan-Slavic gift stores and their ready production of Apple Juice from Concentrate. 

Who am I: I don’t know, but one day, I hope to be a fireman.

 

---

 

Theoretical Bowls

 

The Genocide Bowl

 

Rutgers Vs Rutgers

 

This matchup is a severe test to a writers decency. I came this close to making much too intimate comparisons to certain genocidal events. I am already skirting the line in our outrage culture and will have to settle for some #MICROTRANSGRESSIONS, which already carry the weight of murder in our society. But none of my transgressions can match what we would see on the field when Rutgers would play itself.

 

Last year, Rutgers actually put together a decent defense. And relative to their offense, Rutgers has the Steel Curtain. But as a whole, Rutgers is an insult to evolution, religion and atheism alike, the universal order (including but not limited to the Big Bang, Quasars, the Event Horizon of a super massive black hole, and the expansion of the universe), family values, representative democracy, and the founders of College Football, Chet College and Steevon Football. I considered matching Rutgers up with UMass, UNLV, Connecticut, or a similarly despondent team, but I found all of them to be inadequate to the task of out-Rutgersing Rutgers, as none of them are in a major conference, 

 

This is not Rutgers fault, mind you. They were a homeless reject looking to bail from the dying Big East and took advantage of the lustful offer to increase cable subscriptions in the New York area join the Big Ten. And now, the only thing with a more certain death than Rutgers is cable, and the Big Ten has to live with having a team in their conference that loses to teams like the historically bad 2018 Kansas and Buffalo. When your team loses to a program that uses an animal driven into extinction as a mascot, it is telling.

Rutgers decided to remarry their ex-lover in Greg Schiano. This worries me greatly. Schiano jilted Rutgers and has has a somewhat dispiriting run of coaching in the interim, failing terribly in the NFL and overseeing one of the worst OSU defenses in recent memory. He was also unfairly executed by public opinion in the debacle of the 2017 Tennessee head coaching search, a thoroughly strange and troubling event in which the internet convicted Schiano of an offense he was exonerated of and forced Tenneesse’s administration into removing him from the coaching job. But as we now see, it may have been a sleeper cell of Rutgersians that had an eye on bringing Schiano back.

 

Will things ever get better? If by better we mean ‘go 5-7 and don’t lose 78-0 at home’, then probably. It can’t get worse. Schiano provides an appreciable floor but this is Rutgers ace. Imagine if he posts consecutive 4-8 years, even if their losses are by less than 50. What happens next? The program would fall ever further if their perceived savior is unable to replicate the success he had when Rutgers was in the Big East. And this is what concerns me the most. People are going to expect Schiano to replicate against Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and the rest of the Big Ten what he first did to teams like South Florida and Syracuse. Lets say Big Ten teams continue their current trajectory for the next to years, a not unreasonable assumption seeing as how the coaching situation in the East seems static. That’s a guaranteed loss against;

-Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State

-Highly probable losses against Indiana, Syracuse, Temple, Illinois, and Nebraska

-A sure win against Monmouth (Is this a school for dental months?)

-And toss ups against Maryland and Purdue

 

That is, optimistically, a 4-8 record. 

 

The schedule for 2021 retains the same bins of win/loss probability. Let’s be generous and say 5-7.

 

That means by year 3 Schiano will have to make a Bowl game before dejection and apathy ravages the program. Losing with Schiano will create a sense of ‘If our legend can’t win here, who can?’ 

 

This is not Rutgers fault. They would have been foolish to deny entry into the Big Ten. The young men who are on the team deserve better, because they show a lot of bravery showing up for games in Columbus and Ann Arbor, knowing darn well what the result will be. The roster would be middling for the AAC or another G5 program. And that will take at least 3 years to rectify, and that is no guarantee. In the interim, painful losses will follow and further mire the program in doubt. And if in year 3 Schiano can’t claw to a 6-6, 7-5 record, the program will have used its nuclear option and come up empty. And so the cycle will begin anew.

 

I think Schiano was a terrible hire. It’s no different than remarrying a wife who left you once. If he succeeds he’ll leave again. If he doesn’t - which is highly likely, given the context which sets everything against Rutgers - then the program will be farther back than it was before, which is saying something. Rutgers needed to raid a coach from Appalachian State or Memphis, one of the bright young guns who have already won at a program. Instead, they continue to gamble on also-rans and coordinators with little experience. Schiano will generate some first year nostalgia, but as they limp to another 3-9 record in 2020, that’ll quickly fade, and the expectations that an outside hire wouldn’t have will absolutely suffocate Schiano as Jersey bois wonder why ‘he can’t do it again’. 

 

The Big Ten added a built-in bye-week when they brought Rutgers in. They also added a team that is woefully inadequate for Big Ten play and will likely damage the reputation of the conference, for those concerned with such things. And it was all for a golden faucet that has long since rusted.

 

Rust. The desiccation of something that was once held strong. You can chip it away, but you can’t restore it. Once time has taken its toll, there’s no turning back.

 

Beaver Bowls

-Please note that I consider Beaver Bowls just as worthy as Buster Bowls. I am just as excited to see Indiana and Tennessee as I am about the Rose Bowl. But because the human psyche must cope via compartmentalizing and, more importantly, I am an unpaid peasant, I must make a separation. Know that I do so in good faith.

 

Las Vegas Bowl

Washington Vs #18 Boise State

- How, uh, fitting that such a poetic bowl would find itself in the cultured Sodom Gomorrah rapturous toboggan of sin known as Las Vegas. Washington coach Chris Peterson shocked the college football world by announcing his retirement from the sport about a month ago; Boise State is where he made his name, compiling a 92-12 record and scoring magical upsets, most notably his win against Oklahoma in 2007. No longer having the benefit of an expectations free underdog, Peterson has surely been stressed by the difficult year. Absent program legends Myles Gaskins and Jake Browning, Washington’s dominance atop the PAC-12 was challenged as Oregon ascends and errors not typically seen from a Peterson coached squad arose. Washington had fourth quarter leads in their most devastating losses of the year, home bouts against Oregon and Utah. Add in a confounding loss against a struggling Stanford and a bizarre early season loss against California - which seemed to shake the program - and the Huskies have had a disappointing year. 

 

At primary cause for their defeats is the inconsistent play of transfer QB Jacob Eason. Eason and the offense played exceptionally poorly in the fourth quarter of their losses. Against Oregon they managed only one fourth down as they saw a two score lead evaporate in the final minutes. They controlled the game against Utah until the offensive line evaporated and the offense was annihilated. The Stanford game was just...gross. And so a defense that is loaded with studs in the secondary and otherwise solid found themselves gassed and demoralized and regularly surrendering winning touchdowns late, also failing to make impact plays. They’ve lost as a team.

 

I wonder if Peterson feels that he has failed to reach his players, this being the primary factor in demoralizing him into retirement. His hallmark has been resilience, and this Washington team has not once staved off building momentum from an opponent. Boise State has, however. They lost their first string QB, Hank Bachmeirer, who led an early season 19 point comeback against a more talented Florida State team. Still, they only sustained one defeat on the year, to a BYU team that somehow manages to lose to teams like Toledo and yet win every big game they play(Ironically getting blown out by Washington, though). The Broncos are solid across the board; they lack the explosive offensive playmaking and size on defense, as most G5 programs do, but play disciplined and sound in every position; not many penalties, good change-of-situation defense, that sort of thing. Bachmeier may not play, which would decisively shift the game in Washington’s favor. The Huskies have the size and overall talent advantage, and were this not Chris Peterson’s last game, I’d say a deficit in morale. But Peterson is adored, and his players know what he’s meant to Washington. Boise State will be desperate for a signature win, angry that a 12-1 record is insufficient to put them on the radar. But the Huskies will be playing for Peterson. Boise State may hang around, but lacking their leading QB, won’t be able to stick.

Washington 35

 Boise State 23

 

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Pinstripe Bowl

 

Michigan State Vs Wake Forest

The hilarious reaction from all Michigan State fans was ‘Oh God, can’t the season just end?’ In fact, I think most Spartan fans would rather not have to watch their team play again. That should reveal just how demoralizing the last four years have been for Michigan State. I’ll again preach the importance of Bowl Games; after the Spartans lost a nauseating bowl game to Oregon last year by the inspiring score of 7-6, the entire prelude and season was filled with ‘Here we go again.’ It painted everything with the red smear of a bleeding program and that isn’t just because it was the Redbox Bowl. After another year of offensive futility, having only scored one signature win since 2015 and with a total record of 26-24, Michigan State fans feel that Dantonio has passed his zenith, a dispiriting irony in a year in which he claimed the record as the Schools all time winningest coach. But nobody cared about that as the Spartans only scored one touchdown in the month of October in the midst of a six game losing streak. 

 

Spartan fans also point to the internal aggrandizement of their nauseating win against Maryland, which was a form of benign masochism in every sense and for ‘normal’ people one of the most atrocious sporting events of all time. Dantonio labelled it as a ‘program win’. This is concerning. With recruiting ranked at 11th in the Big Ten - behind such luminaries as Northwestern and Maryland, teams that combined to go 6-18 this year - Dantonio has apparently told recruits that he plans to keep his staff intact. This is the same staff that has produced on of the worst offensive units of Dantonio's tenure two years running, the same staff that makes Spartan faithful bloodthirsty, and that is in extreme terms destroying his legacy. This Michigan State team is gutted next year; their all star defensive players depart, the quarterback room is terrifying, and only a few bright spots on offense give hope, like Cody White. For these reasons, Spartan faithful need to circle the wagon and cope with the importance of this bowl game.

 

Michigan State cannot lose this game. Wish away these lower tier bowls all you want, but for a program struggling to maintain relevance, this is a monumental event. Lost this and watch the flames lick and cackle as they devour any remaining confidence this program has. Win and see buckets of heavenly water douse those hungry sparks. The lowest common denominator for the desolate - hope - is also highest additive modulate to this teams outlook. The Spartans need to win, or else 3 of the last 4 years will be uniformly miserable. It’s hard to engender confidence or tout ascendancy when you’re failing 3/4ths of the time. It may or may not be fair to condemn the Spartans and Dantonio, but that doesn’t matter. He’s on the brink of making a decision that will lose the fanbase for good. A win here and there is a sliver of hope to justify it. MSU’s AD has been crippled by incompetence and corruption and Dantonio and Izzo effectively run the department. He won’t get fired. I don’t think anything can get him fired. But we saw what happens when the team checks out. It showed as an elite defensive unit floundered into mediocrity for the back half of the year and a senior day stadium in a game fighting for bowl eligibility was less than 35% full, with 95% of the student section empty. It was painful to see. These kids deserve better, especially at a school like Michigan State where many of the starters have been passed over or were walk ons and have worked their ass off to become all Big Ten mention, like Kenny Wilikes.

 

But it’s the offense that is the problem. I can’t even begin to go into the issues. Terrible offensive line play, sporadic play from QB Brian Lewerke - who has regressed for two years now - and only two offensive players who bring any juice, RB Elijah Collins and the aforementioned Cody White. The rest of the players have severe weaknesses that, combined with ineffective line play and quarterbacking, make this an exceptionally poor unit. Lewerke has put up big numbers - posting 300+ yards against Illinois and Indiana for example, two decent defenses - but rarely captilizes with scores. Add in a bad special teams and MSU just doesn’t score enough to keep their defense motivated. 

 

But Wake Forest may provide opportunity. They surrender 400 YPG and allow opposing QB’s to complete 60% of their throws. The issue here is that MSU’s offense has been less about the opponent and more about their own self destructive tendencies. It’s weakness against weakness. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has a dynamic, aggressive, and exciting QB in Jamie Newman, who has thrown and rushed for a combined 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns on the year. The Spartans have struggled to contain such dynamism, committing to stopping the run - something they do well - but finding themselves getting mashed in the secondary. Newman will find his yards, and while Wake won’t be able to make a traditional run game work, they won’t have to. Newman will only need to put together a few scrambles to keep things opened up. The Spartans got beat by ASU and OSU in this regard as D-Linemen, desperate to make a play when their team is so starved of impact, loses contain and goes all out for sacks and strips. 

 

I’m sorely concerned for the Spartans. I don’t see any factors that would provide motivation enough to lift them to their potential, which is that of a solid team, certainly one with a defense that should lift them to a better than 6-6 record. Wake Forest should be hungry to reach 10 wins, a program with a checkered past of success who seems to be on the rise. They’ve got good coaching and a reason to care, a narrative to build. The Spartans, much like their fans, seem to want to get to the end. And it’s not a happy one.

 

Wake Forest - 30

Michigan State - 20

 

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Texas Bowl

 

#25 Oklahoma State Vs Texas A&M

 

The Aggies have been pummeled by a ruthless schedule all year. The Cowboys have been on the brink of some big wins but have overall fallen short, especially hurt when rising star QB Spencer Sanders went out. I can’t project who’s going to care more. The Aggies probably are thinking ‘fuck this, let’s get to next year’ as evidenced by their flaccid showing against LSU. Oklahoma State probably wants to hang onto a ranking and validate their season with a strong finish. OSU RB Chuba Hubbard should be able to hit 100 yards against an inconsistent Aggie front, one I suspect may be lacking motivation. OSU’s backup QB was also surprisingly effective against Oklahoma, so I think the Cowboys will be able to find success offensively.

 

Kellen Mond is a somewhat frustrating player. He’s capable of elite play in spurts but at times seems vapid and reckless with the gameplan. A lack of impact wideouts means that his 300 yard games are the result of throwing the play some 30-35 times. Against Georgia, Mond threw the ball 31 times in the second half in which the Aggies ran 33 plays; coach Jimbo Fisher is not afraid to abandon the run, though Oklahoma State hardly has the run stopping capability of Georgia. But whenever Mond is throwing 40 times a game, the Aggies seem to fall short. Blah blah balance, but they need it. It should be achievable against an overall average Cowboys defense, but I don’t think Mond can keep the lid on the turnovers with a month off from football. Top to bottom, the rosters are somewhat comparable in terms of how they’re playing right now, but A&M has more raw talent. But I just don’t know if the Aggies show up for this one.

 

Oklahoma State - 34

Texas A&M - 17

 

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The Holiday Bowl

Iowa Vs Southern California

A Holiday is generally defined by its departure from the norm. The contrast, if you will. And this year's rendition of the Holiday Bowl could not more accurately embody this.

 

Iowa. Corn. Squirrels. Battered midwestern housewife churning butter in ramshackle farms.

USC. Babes. Drugs. Unmatched coastal beauty. Skateboarding with a beanie on each ear and Wolverine-Claw cigarettes exuding from each knuckle.

 

We the heathen midwesterners look longingly at the intrepid hedonism of the Californians and sigh. Then we cane our horse and take stock of the winter reserves. And those West Coast busters - wait, I’m not sure they know Iowa exists.

 

And this may be their folly. They will certainly come to know the existence of the Hawkeyes when they meet on the field in a game that typifies the stereotypical PAC vs BIG matchup that we all so love. USC is loose and sloppy and explosive and variable and vacillates between indifference and near-erotic passion. Iowa is stern and simple and somber and reliable and barely strays from their baseline simmer. How can we make sense of this?

 

We know a few things. Kirk Ferentz has been planning his punts carefully. Clay Helton has been...what has he been doing? Certainly not recruiting. It’s hard to escape that drama in Los Angeles surrounding this team. Helton just wrapped up what may be the worst recruiting class in USC’s rich history on the heels of a dicey vote of confidence where many thought he’d be fired.  They finished with a solid 8-4 record but their losses were dispiriting and their wins scruffly. They flounder for long stretched on defense, commit foolish penalties, drop balls, blow blocking assignments. They also physically outmatch most of their opponents and display tremendous offensive skill and athleticism. When focused, USC is able to utilize superior talent and could, in theory, demolish most the teams they play. But they’re a total headcase.

 

Iowa is anything but. We know exactly what we’re going to get from Ferentz and Stanley and the great defense. Stanley is going to throw for 250 yards. He’s going to hit some gorgeous back shoulder fades and then throw a simple slant into the Earth’s core. The Iowa run game will produce well enough against a USC team that is either blasting into the backfield with little regard or being blasted back. But none of Iowa’s facets are game breaking. They’re game maintaining. They will push along the contest and provide a steady level of pressure, mounting 3-5 good drives that may or may not end up in touchdowns and forcing you to drive the length of the field.

 

Despite suffering QB injuries all season, USC still can field a devastating passing attack. Kedon Slovis has taken the reigns and set an all time USC record his last time out against UCLA, throwing for 500+. Iowa’s AJ Epenesa won’t allow Slovis the easy dancing that UCLA did but to some extent Slovis and his talented catches - like Amon Ra St. Brown - are going to get at least 250+, maybe more. I don’t think USC is going to be able to run the ball. They’ll be happy to let Slovis throw 40 times. But the pressure will mount as Iowa continues to break down pockets and play good enough coverage to make Slovis double clutch. And Slovis has shown a bad habit of making reactionary second read decisions and/or thoughtless first read laser throws. Iowa is coached well enough that their defensive scheme will manufacture at least one interception. 

 

Will it be enough? Iowa’s offense just isn’t prolific. They’re extremely reliant on field position due to Stanley's inconsistency. He’s good for two drives of any length per game. The rest of the time, he’s too scattershot to assure a 70 yard march. This is compounded by playing in the Big Ten, a league that is obsessed with run defense. I think Iowa’s ability to run will break this game in their favor. Stanley won’t have to carry the load, and with a healthy offensive line and two excellent tackles, Iowa should be able to get 5 YPC. But they have to limit mistakes - no turnovers - and have to get touchdowns when they get into the redzone. USC will seize any momentum they can, and as an emotional team, will be deflated if Iowa is putting together long running drives. That will ratchet up pressure on Slovis and force him into the errors we saw him make against Oregon and BYU. Iowa must take all the emotion and momentum out of this game and simply bludgeon away. They don’t have to be explosive. But they can’t allow USC to do so.

 

Will Helton’s guys show up for him? From everything I hear the man is adored. But the players know better than anyone the pulse of the program. The term ‘dead man walking’ has been applied to Helton for a few years running. Will this result in a highly motivated team that has more ‘talent’ than Iowa, or an anxious and uncertain group that falls victim to the disciplined consistency of Iowa? This is, by far, the hardest pick of the year for me. IDK who to choose.

 

Iowa - 27

USC - 21

Camping World Bowl

#15 Notre Dame Vs Iowa State

 

WTF? 

 

W     T F

T       T

F               F

 

#15 Notre Dame - 32

Iowa State - 26

 

Ok but actually, a 10-2 Notre Dame with a spat of solid wins gets stuck in this bowl? Listen, we needn’t pity the Irish. They’re just fine. But this is weird. And IDK what to say about it. The Cyclones are a good team that play to their competition level. Top to bottom they are slightly to substantially out matched by Notre Dame. ISU has a stud at QB in Purdy and a solid defense but doesn’t have the horses to hang with what I hope is a furious Notre Dame team. The Cyclones won’t fold easily but I expect ND to control this game from start to finish as the Cyclones refuse to create seperation where they can. But I can’t get over this odd placement. My best bet is that the Bowl Committee uses one sacrificial lamb a year and sticks a good team in a shitty bowl in order to raise the bowls profile. But guys, nobody is ever going to respect a bowl called ‘Camping World’. Just...WTF. Sorry to all involved. Two good teams with good seasons get stuffed in this weird ass bowl game against each other. 

 

Please refer to fractal WTF rhombus above.

 

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RedBox Bowl

California Vs Illinois

 

I dislike having to name sponsors in this bowl review. As if we aren’t assaulted enough in our daily lives by pervasive advertising. It’s normative to an extent that we have all been labelled aberrant. It’s destructive in that we’re told possessions are the only thing of value yet no amount of them is valuable enough. It wishes to cycle us into a lifestyle in which the 40 hour work week is the gateway to happiness but the inherent institution is in itself the antithesis of satisfaction as the goalposts for even the richest alive constantly slip outside of grasp because no money is ever enough money. 

 

*sigh* Oh Verne. How far we’ve strayed.

 

Redbox seems a somewhat suspect business model in the world of streaming. And I liken it to both of these teams. Illinois has had a wonderful year and California is enjoying a recent resurgence back to respectability. But I’m not sure how sustainable these teams models are.

 

Illinois used a program changing win against Wisconsin to enrapture themselves with confidence, further proof that College Football is, what, 90% mental? Take away that win and I bet the Illini scratch out a 4-8 year. Instead, they began to believe. That makes this bowl game crucial to the momentum the Illini want to establish. But it’s tenuous; at a certain point, the good feelings must be replaced by disciplined structure, and Lovie Smith’s reliance on transfers and some fortunate turnovers - like in games against MSU and Wisconsin - may not be sustainable long term, especially with how bad the run defense can be. Similarly, California has created a solid floor by building a team on good defense, but as we’ve seen, elite offense is needed to take the next step. Neither team is particularly close to this revelation.

 

California lost their starting QB, the solid Chase Garbers, about midway through the season. Dexter Modster stepped in as a run first QB with varying results. They barely made way against good defensive teams as his limited throwing prowess made the offense one dimensional. The good news is that Illinois has shown a propensity to be miserable defending the run, though they’ve improved substantially over the course of the year. As I don’t think Cal can muster more than 200 passing yards, the version of Illinois run defense that shows up will decide this game. Their primary issue is linebacker play that laughs at the concept of contain. This forces the cornerbacks inwards and allows speedy players to break the edge. I don’t see any impact offensive players for Cal who can regularly take advantage of this.

 

California has a good defense, overall. But they suffer the regular issues that accompany ineffective offense. Illinois has some standout receivers, particularly Josh Imaboratbehe, that will make hay against any unit. Illini QB Brandon Peters is wholly decent, but is capable of putting up big yardage. Illinois is going to need a little bit of juice in the run game to take the pressure of Peters, as he hasn’t shown that he can win games on his own. California will likely try to force him to do just that.

 

But I’m not sure the Bears can muster enough offensively to make it matter. Illinois will commit 8-9 players to the box on every play and live with whatever throws Modster can make. They’ve improved enough that I think they can hold Cal to >200 rushing yards. Cal’s line play has been uneven and they don’t have impact speed to blow the top off, and unless Modster stars hitting big throws, Lovie Smith will compress things. I like Illinois chance to present a more balanced approach. 

 

Cal has already established themselves as a respectable team, having pulled themselves from the doldrums. I also think they may have conceded this as a lost year due to injuries. I worry this’ll be a no show. Illinois, in their first bowl game since the War of 1812, should be extremely motivated. This would be a juicy win that would validate all the hype they’ve build this year, and polish this campaign from excellent to glorious. I think the Illini bring the fire, and while they’ll have some struggles against the athletic Modster and a stout Cal defense, they’ll start to pull away in the fourth quarter.

 

Illinois - 26

California - 20

 

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Belk Bowl

Kentucky Vs Virginia Tech

 

Kentucky could put a broadway musical on. They lost both their QB’s to injury this year. So they put punt returner Lynn Bowden at QB and said ‘do gud.’

 

And my. He’s dun gud.

 

It’s remarkable, really. Teams know Kentucky can’t throw. They stack the box. And yet the Wildcats won 4 of their last 5, putting up 29+ in each. And they’ve only completed a grand total of 17 passes in those games. For a team without the structure of a triple option program - like Army - to run the ball with this level of success against the SEC - granted, some of the lesser element - is truly impressive. 

 

But Virginia Tech, playing their last game with long time legend defensive coordinator Bud Foster, prides itself on stopping the run. And for much of the year, they’ve done so with decent effectiveness. They ended the year in absolutely demoralizing fashion. But this Tech team has shown an impressive ability to rebound. After their worst ACC home loss in program history to a miserable Duke team, VT was left for dead. New coach Justin Fuente - who dealt with a revolt in the locker room last season - seemed like the captain of a sinking ship. Instead, he turned it around the the Hokies were one win away from serving as Clemson’s appetizer in the ACC title game. Mind you, they went through 3 quarterbacks this season, and still managed 8 wins. Fuente may have issues relating to players but he knows how to coach a team up. 

 

I see no clear advantage in motivation one way or the other. Kentucky ended the year with a decisive rivalry win where VT lost. The Wildcats surely have a naughty little excitement of ‘oooh we’re gonna get away with this’ where VT is likely somewhat dejected from losing a 15 year win streak in a rivalry that the nation undervalues but the state of Virginia imbibes voraciously. But I think Fuente keeps his guys together, even bolsters them. Neither unit inspires much confidence in the passing game. These are two run first teams, both on their 3rd QB’s. That means take the defense. And VT coach Bud Foster is a legend in Blacksburg. If nothing else, his players won’t be able to tolerate the idea of sending him out on a loss.

 

Virginia Tech - 24

Kentucky - 20

 

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Sun Bowl

Arizona State Vs Florida State

 

With similar records at 7-5 and 6-6, you could be forgiven for thinking these teams are close in overall narrative trajectory. 

 

Oh. Oh dear.

 

Arizona State began the year looking like a sweetheart. They dipped into an offensive slump that produced a confounding mid season disaster after scoring some nice wins early. They pulled off a monumental win over Oregon to right the ship and then cleaned up against Arizona. Overall, we can forgive their four game losing steak that began in late October. This is a growing team with young pieces. But where Herm Edwards was mocked upon his hiring, he’s instead proven to be quite competent, and with his excellent recruiting and magnetic charisma, it’s easy to prognistace a pleasing future for ASU.

 

FSU? They just fired their coach. Their star talent is sitting out this bowl game. They began the season by blowing huge fourth quarter leads and lost out on the chance for a signature win, limping to a 6-6 record. Though they did improve over the course of the year in nearly every facet, a loss to Miami in which the team was horribly undisciplined and exuded poor attitude got Taggart fired. This has been a recurring problem during his tenure. Though the interim stepped in and gave everybody the classic ‘oh shit if they fired him I could lose my starting role too’ jolt to scratch to bowl eligibility, I have serious concerns about the makeup of this Seminoles roster. The perception - which may be overblown - is that this team has terrible attitude, is abrasive and cocky even when losing, and lacks all the abstracts needed to win games, evidenced by their no-show games, blown leads, and penalties. And I can’t pick that team to win a bowl game that the team’s leaders have implicitly suggested is meaningless. 

 

ASU’s Jayden Daniles is ascendant. The defense has a lot of good pieces and should grow into a consistent top 20 unit. They have some powerful receivers and RB Eno Benjamin is excellent(His playing status is uncertain as of publishing). Everything for ASU is pointing in the right direction. Their Oregon win reminded them that they are, in fact, a quite good team. Nothing for FSU is looking up, currently. The technicalities seem irrelevant. For a taste, if we must:

-FSU won’t have the balance to run effectively, leading to a lurching offense

-The FSU defense is disciplined enough to clamp down on the dynamic, athletic approach that Daniels offers

-The ASU coaching staff has a decisive schematic advantage over an interim coach, and FSU’s OC - the talented Kendall Briles - doesn’t have the players who care to run his scheme

-ASU receivers shouldn’t have trouble beating FSU’s secondary deep

-Daniels should be able to rack up 60+ yards on the ground as the FSU DE’s decide they don’t care about contain

 

Arizona State - 33

Florida State - 16

 

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The Alamo Bowl

#11 Utah Vs Texas

 

The phrase “Remember the Alamo” is declarative. It would never end in a question mark.

 

Why, then, do both of these teams seem to be at an inquisitive, contemplative cross roads?

 

Texas coach Tom Herman has finally gutted his highly incompetent defensive staff. They have proven to be patently unable to coach the talented players and are at cause for two lost season. Short of an impressive 2018 campaign - made mostly by a magical rivalry win against Oklahoma, a win over a disinterested Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, and the gutsy Sam Elingher dragging Bevo’s limp carcass across the Texas prairie - Herman has been decidedly mediocre in his time at Texas, and it must be infuriating for Longhorns fans. 

 

At primary cause is the listless secondary and a defensive line that does little to help them. Their zone sees players more concerned with covering space than the man in that space, and they don’t use good technique in man, which results in receivers regularly getting a step. They’re decent in run defense but in the BIG 12 you cannot survive without decent play from the back seven and they simply haven’t had this at any point in Herman’s career. TCU and their freshman QB abused them on slot fades. Against Oklahoma they had to commit 8 players because no amount of pressure would reach Hurts, and he summarily scrambled in the off chance that nobody was open. These factors seemed to wear on the offense as the season went on, culminating in a listless performance against Baylor were the Longhorns didn’t score a single point in the competitive portion of the game.

 

I don’t see the defense taking a huge step forward, though if they play to their capability there’s no reason they can’t be average. The Alamo Bowl will feature two dejected teams, however. Utah was a win away from a shot at a playoff berth, falling short against Oregon in the PAC championship game. The concern regarding Utah is that they haven’t scored a signature win on the year, having 0 wins against top 25 teams. And yet I struggle to find a certain weakness. Their defensive line is excellent and regularly mashes play design. QB Brett Hundley and RB Zach Moss present one of the most impressive and dynamic backfield combos in the country. Utah coach Ty Willingham has long been one of the unsung few, and when his teams lacked talent due to their geographical disadvantages, he always had his Utes juiced up to play hard. Despite lacking a signature win, this is an 11 win team. And the Alamo Bowl is solid, but hardly used to hosting 11 win teams. Will Utah take this slight and internalize it, or allow it to anchor their morale?

 

Texas may have the higher recruiting rankings and Elingher is probably the best player on the field, but Utah has been better in every facet this year. Their ability to muck up the run and tackle consistently will limit Elinghers power and thus eliminate Texas’ best weapon. I don’t see the Longhorns running for more than 100 hard earned yards, and I imagine they’d need some 30 carries for that. And while Elingher is more than capable of winning a game with his arm, especially with studs like WR Devin Duvernay, Elingher has been deflated this year. Last year, his joy was infectious. He has a powerful gravity but this strain of carrying a weak defense an often-times underperforming offense has worn on him. I just don’t sense the same exuberance that he oozed in colorful bunches last year. And as the proverbial Davy Crockett of his team, I think we’ve seen them suffer as a result.

 

Wittingham is notorious for getting his players to execute schematics that limit talent differential, but this is one of his best teams. Texas has lost numerous games this year due to mental gaffes that bely a lack of focus, like when they jumped offsides on a missed game winning kick against Iowa State, giving the Cyclones another shot at the win (Which they made). I’m seeing a disappointed Utah team that has an inherent trait of resilience. I’m seeing a Texas team that has largely checked out on the season, and when coaches get fired, oftentimes players take a ‘wait and see’ approach in the bowl game. I think Elingher’s tamped fire is going to burn the team, though I can hardly blame him. I don’t think this is going to go well.

 

Utah - 40

Texas - 21

 

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Gator Bowl

Indiana Vs Tennessee

 

The Volunteers began the season looking like beaver meat. The turning point, though, seemed to be a game in which they played Alabama way closer than anyone thought. Their QB Jared Guartanmo fumbled into the endzone and it was returned 100 yards for a touchdown. That ended the game and Guartanmo got eviscerated publicly by coach Jeremy Pruitt. Since that time, Tennessee ripped off a series of wins that got them to bowl eligibility. They’re still on tenuous ground but will be highly motivated to prove that things are in the right direction. This is the second season in a row that Tennessee began dreadfully before righting things late, and I think the players are feeding off that momentum surge. 

 

The Hoosier usurpers, meanwhile, have burst onto the scene and claimed their finest season since the Magna Carta. They are legitimately good. Even after losing breakout QB Michael Penix Jr (I ran out of jokes in like week 5, so sorry), veteran backup Peyton Ramsey stepped in and played exceptionally well. Indiana has a fleet of excellent receivers, headlined by Whop Philyor, a solid back in Stevie Scott, and a generally competent defense. Tom Allen has proven to be a solid coach and seems to have little trouble motivating his players. 

 

Indiana is, and has been over the course of the season, a better team. Tennessee often plays with tenuous technique and always seems one error away from watching the game devolve into anarchy. While I think they will limit Indiana’s run game, the Hoosiers have proven themselves able to play to whichever style is available. Their preferred dink-and-dunk portends well against a Tennessee team that has struggled to tackle consistently over the course of the year. And yet the Hooisers have outdone themselves this year. I think Bowl season is a time when occasionally bad habits resurface. They’re not so far removed from a 14-21 stretch to begin Allen’s career. Despite the fact that I think the Hooisers are overall a better, more balanced team with plenty to play for, I think they underperform and Tennessee has some breaks go their way. This is a smoke and mirrors gut pick.

 

Tennessee - 33

Indiana - 31

 

Quick Hits because I’m out of time and unpaid

-I am sorry. Really. I try to give every team the coverage they deserve but guys I just can’t. 

 

Cotton Bowl

Penn State - 36

Memphis - 24

-Memphis just lost their head coach - again - and Penn State should see a golden opportunity to cap off a great season. I just don’t know if Memphis can hang with some of PSU’s more talented skill players, but their offense is good enough to make a first half out of it.

 

Sugar Bowl

#5 Georgia - 28

#7 Baylor - 32

-I think last year is going to repeat itself. An upstart Big 12 team shows up with more to play for than the Dawgs and Georgia is down so many players offensively and playing so poorly that a good Baylor defense should be able to give the offense enough chances to score.

 

The Orange Bowl

#24 Virginia - 35

#11 Florida - 34

-This is my upset pick of the Bowl season. I think Virginia is riding high, despite their loss to Clemson, and Qb Bryce Perkins will log a statement win to close out a magical career and season. 

 

Quick Lane Bowl

Pittsburgh - 27

Eastern Michigan - 15

-A rather odd matchup sees two up and down teams duke it out in the thrilling Detroit locale. Pittsburgh has much more physical talent and will easily overpower the Eagles.

 

Military Bowl

North Carolina - 32

Temple - 30

-Temple always plays up to better competition, but the Tar Heels may be to spasmodic to unequivocally qualify as such. NC has been in 9 one score games this year. They don’t win or lose big. I expect an excellent and hotly contested game that NC pulls out late.

 

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Life is pain. Football is over. I’ll be spending my nights in internet chat rooms masquerading as a 48 year old bowler eating cupcakes. Come to my house and light it on fire. I don’t care. Just get my cat out. 

 

Next:

Big Ten season report cards

Manifesto on Pan Slavism

Treatise on muskrat den making