The objective of this post is to offer some reasons for optimism despite the pending early departures of Jordan Poole and Iggy Brazdeikis from the basketball program.  There’s no question that the ceiling for next season just got a little lower, but I’m going to try and make a case for why the sky isn’t falling.

 

Before I do that, however, I feel the need to offer context.  I have been following Michigan basketball since I listened to the 1989 championship game as a kid in my parents’ minivan coming back from a spring break trip.  From that point until now I consider myself more likely to get worked up about early departures from the program than most people I know. After that championship game I remember being annoyed that Sean Higgins left early despite an unclear NBA future.  I enrolled at Michigan right after Chris Webber left early and was annoyed a few years later when the likes of Maurice Taylor and Olivier Saint-Jean left early.

 

In my darker moments I even rationalized many of the dreary Fisher and Ellerbe years by blaming the lack of tournament appearances on the inability to keep kids in the program. Despite the fact that most of the players were unlikely to have succeeded during that revolving door era of the program, I still wondering what might have happened if the likes of Albert White, Dominic Ingerson, Kevin Gaines, Avery Queen, and Josh Moore had been able to stay in the program.  In more recent years I got pissed at the NCAA when Jamal Crawford and Mitch McGary left and I was incredibly frustrated when Darius Morris left for the NBA without a jump shot.

 

Unlike most of those flawed former players from previous coaches, Beilein has faced a different challenge.  He has been able to develop players at such a rate that it is rare when we AREN’T coping with the early departure of a player who is off to a professional career.  Before we look ahead to next year, let’s look at what Beilein has had to deal with in the last decade:

In the last 11 years Michigan has had 18 players leave the program with eligibility remaining.  Very few of those were probably “expected” to the point where the coaches were prepared. In that same 11-year period Michigan has missed the tournament just once and that took injuries to both starting guards.  

 

Even more of a testament to Beilein’s player development is  how frequently he’s found strong contributors without having to rely on high-major transfers or top-50 recruits.  I think it is important to take note of a few late-additions who were able to make significant contributions.  In fact, I have to wonder if our opinion of the freshmen this past season would be different if one of them was forced to start even before they were ready. 

 

• Stauskas was the #110 ranked recruit who immediately played 30mpg and left early as a lottery pick.

• Spike was an older recruit ranked #221 and became a 4-year rotation player who shot 40 percent from three and was critical compensating for Burke foul trouble or Walton injuries.  

• Caris was #239 and is now a rising star in the NBA and just put a fellow alum on a poster.  He was able to play limited but regular minutes as a true freshman to round out the rotation.

• Aubrey was #396 and played significant minutes as a freshman and has had a solid college career.

• DJ Wilson was ranked #123 and left early to become a first round pick but was afforded the ability to redshirt - a rarity under Beilein.

• Rahk was ranked #434 and became a 4-year contributor and vital member of the team his last two seasons and was thrust into the rotation right away out of need.  Would he have cracked the rotation of this year's team with how established the top six were?  

• Duncan Robinson transferred from Division-III and just signed a $3-million contract in the NBA.  He started as a feel-good story but quickly joined the rotation and found a role.  

• Even guys who are thought of now as stars weren’t highly rated as recruits with Poole (#97), Wagner (#119), and Teske (#167) all being ranked well outside of the top 50.  

 

The final reason for optimism is the number of lottery tickets we have to replace Poole and Iggy.  While none of the names listed below are likely to step in right away and match their output from this past year, the fact that there are so many names means that Beilein is likely to find a combination that works:

 

Shooting Guard:  Eli Brooks, David DeJulius (in two-PG lineups), Adrian Nunez, Cole Bajema

 

Forwards:  Isaiah Livers, Brandon Johns, Jalen Wilson, Cole Bajema, and even Columbia transfer Jaron Faulds.  

 

I would expect Michigan to add at least one more wing player this off-season to add another name to that list.  Some of those players are not going to pan out - but there are enough on that list that to split up the available minutes.  While we may have had far more lofty expectations for Iggy & JP, there is no reason to panic.  John Beilein has been through this many times before.  Would anyone be surprised if Cole Bajema or Jalen Wilson is leaving early for the NBA in a couple of years?  

 

In Beilein We Trust

 

The useful websites I used to collect some of this historical info:

• 247 List of Michigan recruits
  https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Season/2019-Basketball/Commits/
   
• Michigan's database of past players/stats
  http://statsarchive.ath.umich.edu/VS-Basketball-M/basketstart.php