This Week's Obsession: You Missed a Slot
Every week we obsess about something. Is it just to drive ourselves crazy? Is it because you like roundtables and we're ready to promise anything to a 5-star reader? Are you sick of this rhetorical paragraph? Fine. Brian's out this week so here's the e-pinion board:
| Icon | Name | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
 | Sad Seth | The genre of player with unrequited interest in Michigan. Unlikely to receive offers; will finally get to touch the banner at the Bar Mitzvah at the Big House. |
 | Nefarious Acewardo | Player is a longshot. Popular opinion holds that they're likely to be too busy writing 10 Hello posts all at once. |
 | Mathlete | Players in this category maintain exquisite data. |
 | Happy Heiko | Players whom Borges has in a small group as a tenuous favorite. |
 | Mr. Blue in South Bend | Player is either a verbal or his Twitter account betrays a solid Michigan lean. |
And the question:
Right up until Signing Day 2012 certain bloggers were perturbed that Dennis Norfleet hadn't been offered despite being Steve Breaston wrapped up a little ball of hometown wonder that dances in end zones before kickoffs. Are there any guys in the 2014 class that you're eyeing and kinda wish these coaches would go after?
Seth: Answer my mailbag questions Ace!
Heiko: Dominique Booth? He's that four-star receiver from Indiana whose name we saw a lot on recruiting updates not too long ago. It seemed like there was significant interest between him and Michigan, but then he sort of fell off the map. Apparently Hoke and co. never came through with an offer. Now he's predicted to go to Tennessee. So ... what gives? I get that he's not the 6-3 minimum that Borges demands of his receivers -- at 6-0, he's basically a midget -- but he'd be kind of perfect for slot, no? He looks pretty fast on film, and he's really good at catching bubble screens ... Oh wait. That's why we didn't offer. Never mind.
BiSB: It's hard to be too geared up over any unoffered/untargeted prospects given the current target list. The coaches are making serious runs at a dozen or so guys, almost all of whom are somewhere between elite and EEEEEEEEEE. That said, one guy I'd like see the coaches give a hard look (especially if they miss on Dwight WIlliams) is Drue Tranquill out of Fort Wayne. I know he's the trendy name right now, but he seems like a guy who could provide some quality depth at SAM or strong safety. He also has the potential to be a special teams demon. Plus, if Michigan doesn't grab him, you just know he'll end up at Michigan State or Purdue or Iowa and he'll be a thorn in Michigan's side for what seems like seven years.
I'd also like to see Michigan expand their search for a pure OT prospect and offer a guy like Alex Bookser or Andrew Mike. But again, I'm not second-guessing the coaches right now. Not when they're in the position they're in with Da'Shawn Hand and Malik McDowell and Juju Smith and Adoree Jackson and... /breathes into a paper bag.
Ace: Through no fault of his own, Wilton Speight will be compared throughout his career to David Cornwell and Michael O'Connor, the two quarterbacks he earned an offer over in February after the coaches evaluated each prospect — Speight sealed his offer after a personal throwing session for Jeff Hecklinski. If the current rankings hold, his career will be pointed to by one side or the other as a critical data point in the "coaches vs. recruiting rankings" argument; Speight is currently the #22 pro-style QB (#370 overall) in the 247 Composite, while Cornwell (#4 PQB) and O'Connor (#13 PQB) are ranked significantly higher. (Speight has one major outlier, ESPN, which ranks him as the #5 PQB — he's no higher than #21 elsewhere. By the all-important Rank Our Guys The Highest measure, ESPN is your recruiting service of choice this year.)
Cornwell, who committed to Alabama last month, seemed especially keen on a Michigan offer; thus far his rankings, offer sheet*, and camp performances — Cornwell made the Elite 11 finals; Speight didn't after an up-and-down showing in regionals — indicate that he's the better prospect. I also think Cornwell's junior highlight tape is more impressive than Speight's, but I'm just a guy — Al Borges and Jeff Hecklinski are far more qualified to make that evaluation, obviously. I think Speight is a very good prospect and a good bet to start down the line; I'll also be very curious to see how Cornwell does at Alabama, and same goes for O'Connor at Penn State. I know this doesn't really answer the question — Michigan obviously isn't going to go after Cornwell or O'Connor at this point — but I think the coaches have done very well at filling needs and no other names immediately sprung to mind.
I do agree with BiSB that landing a quality OT would be very nice (this is a pretty obvious statement). As for Booth and Tranquill, I think Michigan has better fits for their system with Canteen (a taller slot at 6'3" but still very quick, and I think he'll rise in the rankings) and their current linebacker commits. I could see the coaches extending a late offer to Tranquill, whose film I like, if they miss out on Dwight Williams and Jimmie Swain; I'm okay with the coaches waiting on those two before using a spot on Tranquill when they're currently at a premium.
*An admittedly unfair comparison, as Cornwell earned most of his offers, including Alabama, after Michigan offered Speight — who had interest from several schools, including Alabama, at the time of his commitment. It's quite possible that Speight's offer sheet would be at least as good as O'Connor's if he'd stayed uncommitted.
Ace: Also, it's worth reiterating BiSB's point that recruiting is going so well these days that we're really picking nits here. No coaching staff is going to be perfect when it comes to whom they offer and bring in, and it doesn't really work that way anyway; gaining early commitments — yes, even from lesser-regarded prospects — allows the coaches to focus their late recruiting efforts on the Da'Shawn Hands and Malik McDowells of the world, and it's not like the coaches have much say about when certain prospects decide to make a commitment. Top-100 tackle Ethan Pocic is a great example from last year; he was a strong candidate to commit but wanted to take his time, Michigan filled up on the O-line early, and when an extra spot opened up Pocic had already committed to LSU. Michigan did a solid job of filling that sixth spot with Dan Samuelsen but certainly would've preferred Pocic, in a perfect world. So it goes.
Seth: I like Samuelsen, but then I'm also an unabashed lover of Nebraska's offense, which by the way won the sweepstakes for Zack Darlington, the next dual-threat Apopka quarterback. No, I'm not going there. I would go for Illinois quarterback Clayton Thorson. That's Northwestern's guy in this class. He's 6'4"/197 so he's way more Gardner than Denard. The entire Big Ten except for Michigan and Ohio State was after him. Speight is great, but I think it was a mistake to not recruit a quarterback in 2012 and would like another bullet in the chamber in case it turns 2015 and something's happened to Shane.
BiSB: I think armchair recruiters are more forgiving of the "process" misses like Pocic. Knowing how many spots will be available, and how many recruits they will need at each spot, is obviously pretty complex. Fans are much less forgiving of perceived "evaluation misses," even if the people doing the criticizing are working off of much less information than the coaching staff. If Cornwell turns out to be better than Speight, people will blame Borges, even though there's no reason to believe Michigan WOULD have landed Cornwell (also, people will overlook how good Speight has been for this class. See: Peppers, Jabrill). If Artavis Scott turns out to be better than Freddy Canteen, people will blame Hoke, even though Scott probably wasn't even a realistic possibility when they landed Canteen.
But back to the topic at hand, if this class shapes up the way we're hoping, I can't see any late offers (or lack thereof) that could cause anyone to bat an eye. Unless it's Speedy Noil. Yep, that's the new goal. GET SPEEDY NOIL.
Mathlete: It's pretty hard to argue with how this class has filled up and what's left on the board. Is it too late to offer Braylon's brother?
...hopefully it's no one and we hit on all of the guys left on the board (or at least enough to fill the class).
Question, approx. how many spots do we have next year? This is one of those years that I'd suggest "banking" a scholarship if it means not having 2 small classes in a row.
Anyway, I still think we're at 1-RB, 1-OT, McDowell, Hand, Westphal/Jackson/Smith, and 1 (best option available...likely a LB).
Personally, I hope we get the RB, OT, McDowell, Hand and 2 of the 3 DBs and pass on the LB this year.
I read around 15 somewhere. "Banking" won't change much of anything and our staff doesn't do it anyway. There is no avoiding another small class, but I don't understand why you'd want to anyway. Avoiding a small class would require Rodriguez-level attrition from the team. Also with 2 spots penciled in for RBs in the 2015 class, we probably won't land one this year. The coaches are only pursuing 3 and they're all longshots.
There are currently scheduled to be 12 spots in the 2015 class.
Having a small class isn't a bad thing itself. It means that we have more experienced players returning, counting redshirts 85/5 years of eligibility we could just bring 17 players per class counting on all of them finishing their careers at Michigan.
Small classes means seniors and juniors in the depth chart, of course that bringing 17 per class is utopic, but still, there's nothing wrong in retaining experience, it'd mean that the players are ready to take the field otherwise they'd seek a transfer, a small class right now would be around 20 give or take, that's the amount i'd expect every year at least.
...wins the OP by a landslide. Ace gets credit for admitting this is the case, but this is nothing more than an...
WRT Speight/Cornwell, IIRC Cornwell was massively upset that he was not the QB who received the first call on the day that Michigan extended its three QB recruiting offers. The staff had made it clear to the group that they would only take one commitment, so Cornwell's reaction indicated that he would have jumped at the opportunity to commit on the spot.
Is it possible that the coaches hedged on Cornwell because they were aware of the possibility he'd lose his last year of HS eligibility (an issue since resolved in Cornwell's favor)?
Are you basing your assertion that Cornwell was "massively upset" on the one tweet he made expressing his disappointment or was there more to it than that? If that one tweet is all you are basing it off of, then I think you are, well, massively overstating the situation both in regards to his disappointment and the probabilty of his committing on the spot.
Btw, re: Adoree Jackson...repeat after me: Jackson is NOT coming to UM...Jackson is NOT coming to UM. He has made it clear that track is just as important (if not more important) to him as football. He will be very likely be heading to the SEC with Florida or LSU being the most likely destinations as they have great track programs as well as great football.
Also, Canteen has confirmed that he is "only" 6'1", not 6'3".
...about the situation:
@DavidCornwell5 Tough Deal today thought Michigan would at least tell me. Still plan in calling at 12 today@DavidCornwell5 Not saying I would have committed to Michigan, but they were defiantly towards the top
@DavidCornwell5 “@netHokie: @DavidCornwell5 Things have a way or working out for the best! Better to find out now vs. later.” So true
@DavidCornwell5 Proud of my man @WiltonSpeight great to get to know him over the last week we will see each other soon!
@DavidCornwell5 Will come out with a new top 5 tonight, calls with Michigan, Tennessee, Bama, Virginia Tech today
@DavidCornwell5 The BEST Lesson I can learn from this is, don't get caught up in the recruiting, find a coach and program you love and commit to them
@DavidCornwell5 Because at the end of the day when the dust settles and everyone has signed, your a freshman again and you have to work your way to the top
He was quite clearly upset, then he composed himself and came out of it just fine. HS junior filter applied. Nothing negative meant when I said he was massively upset. Would he have committed to Michigan that day? Who really knows. Given the scenario that the coaches had laid out for their three top QB candidates, I'd say that either he would have, or he would have lost his chance to.
I'm going to assume your 2nd and 3rd paragraphs were not addressed specifically to me even though they appear in a reply to my comment. But since you did reply to me, I'll address them on their merits.
- Jackson is not coming to U-M for the reasons you state. You and I share the conventional wisdom on the state of his recruiting.
- Freddy Canteen is indeed a self-reported 6'1"
Per Freddy Canteen himself, he's 6'1" #endofdebate
— Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) July 1, 2013
to revisit the Spreight commitment. I know trust the coaches and all that, but I have some apprehension that we offered him first because 1.) he was suitable (as in he can do the job) 2.) he was most likely to commit early.
If #2 played a role, and I think it did, then we could have missed out on somebody with a much higher ceiling simply because we wanted someone who could do the job.
Maybe I am wrong, maybe not, but there is a definite drawback to filling classes so early and that drawback is that you miss out on late developers or you can get married to a player who was overrated (see: Morris).
idk,
jdon
necessarily say missing a year of football due to mono means Shane is overrated. You gotta give the kid a shot before you can say that. It isn't like he dropped way down either. Still one of the top PQBs in the class at the end of the year IIRC.
And if you're basing your opinion off the All American game, name a QB that had a good performance there. They have very little time to learn a playbook, and even less to form a bond with receivers. IMO Shane had the best pass of the day in that game, a back shoulder throw to Treadwell in the end zone, who dropped the pass because he was out-muscled by that freak of a CB Hargreaves III.
I don't want to bash Morris and I am sure he will do fine... The overated comment comes from the fact that his in game stats (all years of high school and all star) were not terribly impressive. maybe it is just splitting hairs but he seems much more of a four star QB than five star in my mind...
I shouldn't have even added that line because my main point is that you can't ignore the drawbacks of accepting commits early and earlier each year... a small drawback, but a drawback none the less...
jdon
Stats only tell part of the story.
Morris spent much of his high school career fleeing for his life because he had a colander protecting him on pass plays. I don't think anyone would put up great passing numbers in his situation.
The all star game was a bit disappointing, but I'm not sure how much those games themselves reveal. "Overrated" is the wrong term to use. Morris comes in with a bunch of hype, but that's different than being overrated.
lets call him overhyped.
deal
jdon
I know Cornwell and O'Connor were Speight's direct competitors, but what about David Blough? Was he ever being looked at by Michigan? He looked better than Cornwell at the Elite 11.
No, I don't think Blough was considered by Michigan. He's also 6'1", 180 lbs., which seems small-ish for what Michigan seems to want.
And he's committed to Purdue. I think the world might explode if we stole another commit from Purdue.
I thought we were required to take a recruit from Purdue every year. At the very least, it's a tradition.
I look for Tranquill to end up in the class if Williams, Swain or Yeargrin don't pan out. He could even end up as a Safety option as well.
I'd like to see Kalen Ballage get a visit in and see where we stand after that.
I'm not as high on our chances with Adoree Jackson and Juju Smith as alot of people are.
Tranquill has indicated that he wants to commit in the near future (by the end of July IIRC), so UM would probably only get him if they got him to flip. Interestingly, one of his Top 5 teams right now is Purdue and we all know UM's recent history of swiping Purdue players late in the cycle.
I, too, would like to see Ballage make it to campus. I think UM would have had a pretty good shot at him if he ever made it. Unfortunately, I have a sneaking suspicion (no evidence at all, just my gut) that Ballage won't ever make it out to UM. Not a total disaster as RB is not a high priority in this class but I liked his overall athleticism and nice hands.
I think UM has a "shot" at Smith...say, 10-15%. Not a good shot, mind you, but a shot. As I stated previously, UM has NO shot at Jackson.
I think people are really underestimating Michigan's chances with John Smith. If you look at his quotes, Michigan is repeatedly one of the first schools he mentions and one that he's very confident about exploring. He's wishy-washy about some others, but Michigan's up there. I think 10-15% is low, but I'm not big on giving percentages for kids.
Tranquill's not a safety.
I disagree.
You're wrong.
But I'm right.
What are you right about?
That thing.
Oh yeah.
I agree that concerns about recruiting at this point are probably based more on a need to find talking points than any true weaknesses. Personally, I think recruiting at QB is extremely difficult, and so I put more trust in the coaching staff than services when it comes to a specific player. With positions like WR and RB, you can usually tell by looking at a kid if he can out-run or out-muscle his opposition, if he can run a decent route or if he can block. But with QB, kids can benefit from great teammates, poor competition, and raw talent in a way that can disappear quickly as the competition increases. I'm not sold that Speight will be a great player at UM, but if this staff thinks he is a good fit I'll take it.
I'm not sure how the other quarterbacks are doing on the recruiting trail, but I will say that Speight seems to be doing a bang-up job of getting in other kids' ears. The coaches might have been looking for that sort of thing, leadership, etc. That's one thing that's pretty tough to gauge for recruiting services and internet recruiting gurus like myself.
To set up that bubble screen joke.
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