Upon Further Review 2021: Defense vs WMU
Substitution Notes: Forgot to do this for the offense. Smith, Jeter, Hinton, and Jenkins rotated at the 2-3 inside positions, with Mazi the nose when they had a 3rd guy and Julius Welschof coming in for passing downs. I didn’t see Jess Speight but Braiden McGregor got some run. Hutchinson was in and out with the other OLBs—Ojabo, Upshaw, Morris, and some Jaylen Harrell. Linebacker was Ross and NHG until backup hour, when Junior Colson and Kalel Mullings came in ahead of Michael Barrett. Dax played the hybrid nickel role or strong safety when they went 3-4, with Moten coming in as the extra safety with Hawkins. Cornerback was Green and Gray mostly, with rotations from Turner.
Formation Notes:
I used tech numbering for the fronts starting from the first strongside player with his hand down. So a standard odd front would be “404” for a nose guard (zero) flanked by 4-techs on the inside shoulder of their tackles:
…and a standard over front would be “32” for a 3-tech and a 2-tech. I didn’t bother with “3i” etc. (e.g. below) because that’s getting into the weeds and too hard to see.
Hi. I’ve shortened “Cover Look” and “x-high” to “Hi” and a number of DBs who are sitting at least 9 yards off the LOS to save space.
Expected Points Added. I’ve added a new column that shows the value of the play (to the offense). We’ll see if there’s value to glean from it later. Expected points are based on the points an average offense will score from that down/distance/field position on that drive. For example a two-point conversion attempt averages +1.1 EP. So if Jabrill Peppers intercepts an option pitch on an MSU 2PA and takes it back to the other end for 2 points, we calculate the result of –2 points for the offense minus the 1.1 EP they were expected to get, to call that a -3.3 EP swing for the offense.
[After THE JUMP: Good kids and bad vets]
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun 5w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Stop | Green | Inc | -0.70 |
Ojabo(+.5) gets push, Green(-2, Cov-2) forgets he's in Cov2 and brackets the slot fade instead of coming down on the stop route in the flat. Pass is INx and dropped. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 2nd | 10 | Pistol 4w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Slot Flat | Gray | 0(Pen+15) | 2.02 |
Gray(+2, tackling+2, Cov+2) attacks like he likes this. Ojabo(-2) taunts to turn 3rd and long into a 1st down. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 31 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Quick out | Hill | Inc | -1.12 |
Hill(-1, cov-1) doesn't get wide enough, pass out too quick for any PR, INx. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 2nd | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 31 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Out | Green | 6 | 0.29 |
Hutch(+1, pressure+1), around at 7 but ball is out to the hole in Cov3 under Green(-1, Cov-1) who has nobody deep to his side. | ||||||||||||
O46 | 3rd | 4 | Gun 4w | 5-2-4 | 404 | 1 | Pass | 5.5 | Fly | Green | 29 | 2.89 |
Blitz picked up (pressure-2) and Eleby has time to throw at Green(+1, cov+1) in Cov1. He's in phase, gets a good swipe, and has freshman Jourdan Lewis luck. Happens. | ||||||||||||
M25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Run | 5 | Split Zone | NHG | 1 | -0.35 |
Slant against the crosser is usually good for SZ but Hutch(+2) comes inside that guy who's literally trying to tackle him for the duration (refs-2) and Dax is out there to replace (RPS+1). As Hutch waddles over wearing a leg toddler there's some space backside because Smith(-.5) and Ojabo(-.5) got too upfield. NHG(+1, tackling+1) replaces and closes it down. | ||||||||||||
M24 | 2nd | 9 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Out | Moten | 6 | 0.16 |
Harsh minusing this because an Out vs Cov 3 is RPS-1. Moten(-1, cov-1) can't get over because he has to buzz the vertical threat first. Dax is blitzing and nearly bats it as the LT falls on his ass from looking at this. | ||||||||||||
M18 | 3rd | 3 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 23 | 1 | Pass | 4 | Bootleg | Ojabo | 13 | 1.00 |
Ojabo(-1) fails to chip the TE, NHG(-2, cov-1) has that guy in m2m and gets waaaay sucked in by the PA so this guy can make it almost to the endzone. | ||||||||||||
M5 | 1st | Goal | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 1 | Run | 4 | Arc | NHG | 3 | -0.18 |
Moten(+1) covers ground to induce a give where Jenkins(+1) has fought through a double and Jeter(+1) has shoved his G back. That should end it but Jeter grabs RB instead of Eleby, who can now escape to where Ojabo(-1) was set up but is starting to lose ground. Could string it to the sideline still but T gets a huge yankback on Ojabo (refs-2 or worse) and Eleby gets to the 1. Also Ross(-1) got blocked into Hawkins on the backside. NHG(+1, tackling+1) saves the TD. | ||||||||||||
M2 | 2nd | Goal | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 0 | Run | 6 | Arc | Hawkins | 2 | 2.07 |
Jenkins+2 fights through a double and could end this if Hawkins(-2) hadn't hopped out of his hole at the long mesh. Not a LB I guess. Jefferson forgets which team he's on and does the world's least earned Paul Bunyan pose. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 7-7. 6 min 1st Q. That was way more explicable than I thought it would be. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O10 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Run | 4.5 | IZ/Bubble RPO | Hinton | 2 | -0.17 |
Harrell in now. NHG(+2) blasts the C to remove half of a double that moved Hinton(-1), making a mess at LOS and freeing Hinton. Jeter(+.5) got push, and Ross(+1, tackling+1) disconnected from RT to stick this. | ||||||||||||
O12 | 2nd | 8 | Gun 2RB 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Flood Mid | Ross | 13 | 0.88 |
Ross(-1) and Hawkins(-1, cov-2) are spotting instead of passing off so this is wide open. Moten is going to cross Ross on his way to playing the trail, which means Ross needs to carry the flag of this Flood concept. Again: zone beater. Pressure-2, WMU has all day to do this. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun 2RB 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Run | 5 | ZR | Hawkins | 3 | -0.30 |
Smith(-1) moved by double and Hill-Green's attack is stoned but then Hawkins(+2, tackling+2) flies down and sticks. | ||||||||||||
O28 | 2nd | 7 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 23 | 2 | Run | 4 | Split Zone | NHG | 8 | 1.23 |
NHG(-2, tackling-2) gets outside to stuff this then whiffs the tackle. Hawkins(-.5) gives up a few more yards. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Mesh | Smith | Inc | -1.04 |
Smith(+1, pressure+1) push-pulls through blocker to force a chuck at his guy's feet. He's open under 4 defenders who all seem a little confused. Seems like it's Hawkins(-1, cov-1) unless Green went with the wrong guy? | ||||||||||||
O36 | 2nd | 10 | Gun 2RB | 4-2-5 | 404 | 1 | Pass | 5 | Seams | Green | Inc | -0.63 |
Morris is in and when they go to 3-4 he slides inside and Ross becomes the OLB. Hutch(+2, pressure+2) two-steps and past the RT, Morris(+.5) is through a beat later and about to hit. Green(+2, cov+2) in cov1 is in perfect position to rake this out if it's accurate. It sails and Hawkins, who's about to lay this guy out, can't redirect and bring in the INT. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 3rd | 10 | Gun 3w | 4-1-6 | 53 | 1 | Pass | 4 | Slot Seam | Ross | 22 | 3.52 |
Hutch(+2, pressure+2) is through the LT immediately and about to thundersack, if the first read isn't open. It is because Ross(-3, cov-3) let himself get crossed by the slot receiver without a chip and NHG(-1) was sticking close to the leaking RB instead of getting depth. Ojabo was coming through on a thunder sack. | ||||||||||||
M42 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 2RB | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Bubble | Hill | 0 | -0.91 |
They test Hill(+3, tackling+2) on the edge. He Peppers the WR trying to block him and makes the tackle himself. | ||||||||||||
M42 | 2nd | 10 | Gun 4w | 4-2-5 | 23 | 2 | Pass | 5 | Slot Seam | Moten | 3 | -0.38 |
NHG(+1, pressure+1) times his blitz well but RG, um, does whatever this is. Smith(+.5) is doing his push pull move. Eleby has nowhere to throw (cov+2) into Cov3 and has to run. Moten(+1,tackling+1) makes sure he doesn't get far. ESPN's yellow Score Alert pops up as a flag tease. | ||||||||||||
M39 | 3rd | 7 | Gun 3w | 4-1-6 | 53 | 1 | Pass | 6 | Deep curl | Gray | Inc | -1.05 |
Ross(+2) through immediately, Welschof(+1) shoving a G, ball has to go. It's well over a WR that Gray(+1, cov+1) seems to have well in hand. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 10-7. 14 min 4th Q. This drive felt considerably worse than I remember. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O46 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 5-2-4 | 404 | 2 | Run | 5 | Split Zone | Morris | 4 | -0.16 |
Morris(+1) as extra DT w Aidan and Ojabo and beats his T, who gives him a good yank to prevent a stuff (refs-1). Should be a stuff but Jeter(-2) has his back turned. Trouble. Ross(+.5) gambles by shooting past a blocker to get to Jefferson's legs but not before he falls forward (tackling-1). Moten(+.5) came down, removed a WR, and was there if Ross couldn't get there. | ||||||||||||
50 | 2nd | 6 | Gun 3w | 5-2-4 | 513 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Mesh | Ojabo | 4 | -0.16 |
This is where having a DE instead of a Viper hurts. Jeter(+1, pressure+1) shoves his G back. Morris(-1) can't get anywhere vs a double though so Eleby escapes. Flat defender is Ojabo(-1) who runs this out after a gain of 4. That's probably 2 if the "OLB" is a LB, zero if he's a safety. | ||||||||||||
M46 | 3rd | 2 | Pistol 2TE Tight | 4-2-5 | 404 | 1 | Run | 6 | Fake End-Around Split Zone | Hutchinson | -3 | -1.73 |
Hutch(+2) dodges his guy and sets up in the backfield. Frontside has been wrecked by Morris(+2) splitting a double. Hinton(+1) ruined a guard. Ojabo(+.5) plunked the kickout guy for good measure. Everyone meets at the ballcarrier. Nobody checked the end around and CBs were in m2m so good thing WMU handed off. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 10-7. 12 min 4th Q. Hutchinson is breaking these guys so easily it worries me that the others aren't doing so. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 2RB 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 1 | Run | 5 | Duo | Ross | 6 | 0.33 |
Don't like how down I am about Ross(-2) here but he gets got by Jefferson on Duo, stepping backside to do Moten's job as Smith(+1) holds up to a play-long double and NHG fires at the one Jeter's dealing with. Ross does get back to make a shoestring tackle(tackling+1 I guess). | ||||||||||||
O31 | 2nd | 4 | Gun 2RB 3w | 4-3-4 | 404 | 2 | Pass | 5 | Flood Flat | Hill | 0 | -0.87 |
You tried to edge Dax Hill(+2, tackling+2) how did that work out for you Part II. Colson on for NHG, M drops both "OLBs" (a DE and Dax) and brings both ILBs, Colson delayed. The first is picked up but not the second (RPS+1, pressure+1). Dax gets right where he needs to be to take away the seam then fires on the out to the flat for a stuff. | ||||||||||||
O31 | 3rd | 4 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 31 | 1 | Pass | 4 | Mesh | Hill | Inc | -0.44 |
Mesh owned. Harrell(+1, cov+1) goes with the RB and Upshaw drops into the middle of the mesh as M brings ILBs again. Ross(+1) gets in and loses his skates but it's enough to flush. Crosser hangs up to try to create a pick but now Colson(+1) and Smith(+.5) have beat their blocks, and Junior covers ground fast. Probably should be intentional grounding since WR wasn't to the numbers yet. Eleby faints and sits on the ground as if we don't have a photo of this very ref blowing his nose at a Terp who tried this. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 17-7. 8 min. 2nd Q. Finally some interesting coverages. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 5-1-5 | 404 | 2 | Run | 5 | ZR | Hutchinson | 5 | 0.09 |
Try to read Hutch(+1) who shuffles and isn't tested. Goes FS where there's a wad of bodies, a LT giving Upshaw a play-long facemask, and Jeter(-2) getting slow-motion ejected, which creates just enough space for the pile to lurch forward for a solid gain (tackling-1), with Ojabo(-.5) also in there not really sure what to do instead of adding himself to the wad. | ||||||||||||
O30 | 2nd | 5 | Pistol 3w | 5-1-5 | 404 | 1 | Run | 6 | Split Zone | Jeter | 3 | -0.31 |
McGregor(-1) in as a DT(!), is not one. Jeter(+1) has his G in the backfield and can make the tackle himself but shouldn't have to: Hawkins(-1) thought the QB kept it and was out the backside instead of helping. Not a linebacker. | ||||||||||||
O33 | 3rd | 2 | Pistol 2TE Tight | 5-1-5 | 404 | 2 | PA | 5 | Bootleg | Ojabo | 3 | 1.15 |
Ross(-1) is keying the RB and misses the QB's keep until he's already edged. Ojabo has the TE so it's all Ross. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Fade | Gray | Inc | -1.04 |
They double Aidan and take a shot at Gray(+2, cov+2) who's in phase and gets a chop at the WR as he's trying to catch it. Gray haters: WR was already dropping it. Haters are wrong. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 2nd | 10 | Gun 5w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Skinny Post | Moten | Inc | -0.63 |
They forget to block Hutch(+2) who gets upfield quickly to interrupt the throw. Good thing bc Ojabo(-2, cov-2) is backing out to replace Ross who blitzed. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 3rd | 10 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 23 | 1 | Pass | 7 | Fade | Gray | Inc | -0.32 |
7-man blitz. Ojabo through but LT grabs his facemask and jerks him back. Ross(+1) got in skinny and is going to thunk Eleby on the throw, which is a desperation heave deserving of an interception. We look downfield and yes there's a brief moment Gray(+1, cov+1) got the facemask (live it's half a second). He's in a better spot to catch than WR but can't do it. Refs pick up the flag: no facemask. Actually there were two. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 24-7. 4 min 2nd Q. Next drive starts with 6 seconds. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Run | 4 | Fold | Hutchinson | 1 | 0.00 |
Can't not chart this. Hutch(+2, tackling+1) swims inside LT and ends this at the LOS all alone. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Run | 4 | Split Zone | Hinton | 5 | 0.09 |
Hutch(+1) squeezes the crosser. Smith(+1) got in there. But Hinton(-2) and Ross(-1) shoved back and pile lurches for 5. Lot of this. | ||||||||||||
O30 | 2nd | 5 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Run | 4 | Counter Trey | Ross | 2 | -0.48 |
Great play by Ross(+2) finally. Hutch(+1) beat back the edge but Ross thunked a LB and came off to tackle. | ||||||||||||
O32 | 3rd | 3 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Flood Mid | Hill | 12 | 2.10 |
Hutch backs out as NHG blitzes. Called rollout and this throw is a foot off the ground and six inches from the sideline when caught. Hill(-1, cov-1) was step behind. Live I thought they were reviewing it but it was an injured WMU OL. It was good FTR. | ||||||||||||
O44 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 513 | 2 | Run | 5 | RPO Dive | Ojabo | 6 | 0.39 |
Ojabo(-1) or Ross(-1) doesn't exchange—shades of 2019 OSU communication issues. They're slanting so it's probably Ross. Moten(+1) comes from far away to limit the damage. I like him. | ||||||||||||
50 | 2nd | 4 | Gun 3w | 5-1-5 | 404 | 2 | Run | 5 | Belly | Ross | 3 | -0.44 |
Broadcast misses this play so thank you All-22! Tempo. Ross(+2), RPS-1 has to read this and get out there because they're playing 1 LB and Hutch(-1) got caved. | ||||||||||||
M47 | 3rd | 1 | Gun 3w | 5-2-4 | 512 | 1 | Run | 5 | Duo | Ojabo | 2 | 0.95 |
Bear front here. Upshaw(+2) fires into the T and this could be over but Ojabo(-1) gave up the edge just enough. Moten(+1) gets there a hair too late but again, I like him. | ||||||||||||
M45 | 1st | 10 | Pistol tight | 4-2-5 | 22 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Scissors | Ojabo | Inc | -1.00 |
Hutch(+2) is being doubled but he swims right by the TE and is about to Hulk smash the RB into Eleby. Too late because Ojabo(+1, pressure+2) is around at 10 and it's throwaway time. | ||||||||||||
M45 | 2nd | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 22 | 2 | Run | 4 | IZ/Slant RPO | Ross | 3(Pen-10) | -1.22 |
Smith(+1) stands up G at LOS to close lunge gaps, RB bounces into edge where Hutch(+1) has a TE controlled; that guy hugs as Hutch tries to jump outside and they flag him LOLOLOLOLOLL no I stopped counting these dumb refs a long time ago. Ross(+1) sifts through traffic and bursts outside to run this guy into Dax after 3 yards. | ||||||||||||
M45 | 2nd | 20 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 23 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Tunnel screen | Hill | 0 | -0.80 |
You tried to edge Dax Hill(+2) how did that work out for you Part III. Ross(+1) read it too. | ||||||||||||
M45 | 3rd | 20 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 55 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Fade | Gray | Inc | -0.48 |
Ojabo(+1, pressure-1) and Morris(+1) get through after a few beats. Gray(+1, cov+3) was there with it and everyone else had guys. NHG got away with some Def holding well short of the sticks. Glad they let that go. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 27-7. 11 min 3rd Q. Don't know how many more drives I have in me but I'll stick around for the Hutch strip sack. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Run | 4 | IZ/Fade RPO | Jeter | 4 | -0.11 |
Jeter(+1) stands up to a double so that's closed. But Ross(-1) hesitates and G comes off. Now there's room to squeeze out a few(tackling-1). Hinton(-.5) also gave up ground to play-long double | ||||||||||||
O29 | 2nd | 6 | Pistol Trips TE | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Pass | 4 | PA Slant | Green | 12 | 1.53 |
Green(-1, cov-1) doesn't carry the slant far enough for Moten to take over. Both DTs rip when they see high hat so Jeter(+.5) and Hinton(+.5, pressure+1) if this is covered. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | n/a | n/a | Yackety Snap | n/a | -2 | -1.52 |
C snaps it and nobody moves. Then M does because they're facing this and get to react first. No +s but nice to see the defense get the initiative once. | ||||||||||||
O39 | 2nd | 12 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 31 | 2 | Run | 4 | IZ | Ross | 22 | 3.04 |
RPS-1 as M blitzes Colson(+.5) who just can't quite bend in time (if the mesh goes any longer he would). Smith(-2) is a beat late wrenching the C to get back in his gap, and the RB goes by. Ross(-1) committed softly to one side of a G 5 yards downfield but fought back and ends this at a 5-7 yard gain if the G doesn't grab his shoulderpad and tackle him right in front of...I'm sorry you know. Anyway that's the other 15 yards. | ||||||||||||
M39 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 315 | 2 | Run | 4 | IZ/Bubble RPO | Morris | 18 | 0.51 |
Almost a nice play. Jenkins(-1) got turned in the backfield but Morris(+.5, tackling-1) two-gapped a G and nearly makes a monster play. This time Ross is there too...nope they yank him down by the collar and it's another gash. | ||||||||||||
M21 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 3w | 4-2-5 | 32 | 2 | Sack | 4 | IZ/Bubble RPO | Hutchinson | -7 | -1.21 |
LOL. Hutch(+3) walks around the RT, enjoys the quiet of the backfield for a moment, finds a quarterback still trying to decide if it's wise to test Dax Hill on the edge again*, then decides this QB doesn't deserve a ball anymore. RT violated "never turn around" rule and finds the ball. *[It is not.] | ||||||||||||
M28 | 2nd | 17 | Gun 3w | 4-2-5 | 23 | 2 | Pass | 4 | Mesh | Green | 5 | 0.04 |
Hinton(+2) does it to the LG now while they chip Hutch(+1, pressure+2) who also comes through after. Ball gets out to a guy Green(+1, cov+1) is all over and immediately tackles. | ||||||||||||
M23 | 3rd | 12 | Pistol Trips | 4-2-5 | 23 | 2 | Pass | 4.5 | Curl | Welschof | Inc | -0.88 |
Aidan is speed rushing and taking two blockers so Welschof(+2) gets to own a C, forcing a throw underneath that he bats. Ross(+1) and Hill(+1, cov+2) were all over that. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Blocked FG(40). 33-7. 6 min 3rd Q. Backups in and as much as I'd like to I can't do Kalel Mullings vs Dead WMU. |
I was mad for a moment but I do not recall why that was.
Yes, WMU scored on their first drive, helped by Ojabo committing a not smart taunting penalty and Gemon Green getting Freshman Jourdan Lewis’d on a 30-yard throw he had covered as well as you could hope for. What made it feel bad was the second drive moved the ball as well before Michigan was able to string a few good plays together and induce a punt from the 39. In order of annoyance:
- Ten-play, 75-yard TD drive extended by Ojabo taunting/Green whiff.
- Ten-play, 51-yard drive to a short punt extended by Hawkins dropping an INT then Ross failing to chip.
- Well-scripted 40-yard meatball drive at the start of the 2nd half that petered out at midfield on a questionable hold.
- Nine-play, 52-yard Late Game O’Neill Crew drive to a missed FG.
- One six-and-out, two three-and-outs.
Those first two drives were slow going, but also felt very vanilla. Michigan was running easily identified coverages and getting picked apart by zone beaters. They rarely changed their personnel group—the “2-4-5” that’s really just the Don Brown 4-2-5 with Dax Hill at Viper—or shifted their fronts while flipping between coverages. Eleby was clearly rattled at the beginning—when you haven’t played in front a crowd since 2018 and your first one is a packed Big House that’s understandable—and that saved the first drive from being worse.
And then Macdonald flipped to Page 2 of the playbook and the defense looked like a defense.
There’s our three-four! Daxton Hill is hanging out in the slot like he’s the SAM and there’s no safety over the top of the slot receiver. WMU checks to a play meant to punish Hill on the edge for doing that, and Michigan’s all over it. Third down:
This looks like Don Brown at first blush—LB over the TE, two LBs hovering behind a 4-man line, 1-high—but it is not. The ILBs are blitzing, the OLBs are backing into coverage, with Jaylen Harrell—a guy recruited to play defensive end—taking the running back down the sideline and into his safety help. The crossing routes of this Mesh play get routed right into each other as neither receiver seems sure of the coverage or what Hutchinson is doing there with them. They try to turn that into a pick by then Josh Ross has flushed the QB and it’s time to chuck the ball where a WR might plausibly be (he isn’t) but a defender won’t. The weirdness is the point.
Daxton Hill: Space Spacebacker of Space!
That’s right, he’s the Viper now, at least on the base “2-4-5” that we’re just going to call a 4-2-5 because it’s accurate. In that Peppers is less of a linebacker—like Peppers and Khaleke Hudson were under Brown—and more like Peppers in 2015, a pure nickel who squeezes the slot to temp you into testing it.
Because that messes up everything you’re trying to do in the box—who wants an extra player in there when you’re trying to meatball?—offenses are built to recognize this behavior and attack it. Go right ahead sirs.
Also the Hutchinson strip sack occurred on a play that was designed to attack Dax’s aggressive alignment again, and after Eleby read that was the play he appears to hold off because Dax was coming in to pick six it if he tried.
Collectively the four plays where the offensive concept was “Let’s try to edge Dax Hill” were worth –3.78 expected points. It’s not the *worst* idea in the world, but it was up there with running a no-read zone read on the goal line with under 10 seconds left in the half in ways to burn points in a football game. Like with Peppers circa 2015, the way Michigan has Dax Hill responsible for a huge swath of the horizontal space along the line of scrimmage will continue to encourage offensive coordinators to try to punish it. Washington’s John Donovan tried it a lot when he was running PSU’s offense in 2015. Check back next week to see if he tries it with Giles Jackson, who’s going to be more dangerous than Skyy Moore and Not Skyy Moore.
The zone coverage was bad and then suddenly it was not?
Early on WMU caught Michigan in a Cover 3 versus an out route. This almost always goes badly for the Cover 3, which is the first defense you learn in JV football, and why quarterbacks with the arm to make those throws are swiftly moved up to varsity. This continues all the way up, and against defenses with MUCH greater talent than Michigan’s.
Michigan shelved the Cov3 stuff after the first drive because WMU was looking for those quick outs. The Cover 2 busts were more concerning because they routinely involved the returning starters. Watch how new starter RJ Moten is playing this versus how Josh Ross and Brad Hawkins react:
Moten is the bottom safety, Hawkins the top safety, Ross the top LB
That is some hesitancy from guys who’ve spent years in Cover 1. I’m more comfortable with Hawkins staying back until he’s sure versus Ross, who freezes. That wasn’t Ross’s biggest mistake in coverage. This is a thing he should have known from all the Cover 1, which still plays its LBs in zone underneath:
#12, LB who backs out first
If you let that guy cross you without a chip there’s nobody to stop him until the safeties. And Ross isn’t even concerned; he peeks at the QB, who’s in the middle of getting blown up by Hutchinson, instead of trying to do anything about the guy he just loosed. Even a momentary chip and this is a thundersack.
It’s very frustrating to have your senior LB do this, but his job got harder than anybody else’s. It’s also got to get cleaned up because this is the kind of stuff that any offense can attack, and given the next guy is Junior Colson, a pretty raw true freshman, getting Ross cleaned up seems the most viable option. Not just because he’s a senior captain, but because his senior captainy stuff helps him to be in two places at once when Michigan asks him to be both linebackers.
This is the 5-1-5, a thing I saw a bunch with the Ravens when I wrote my Macdonald piece this summer. Michigan only dipped their toes but you can feel the water. Good: five defensive linemen for five offensive linemen, a man and safety help for all three receivers. Bad: one linebacker to deal with three guys in the backfield. Sure enough the RPO throw isn’t there because there’s plenty of coverage, and the line is instantly gummed up with dudes. Ross’s job is to clean up any leaks, and you can see him trying to guess where that’s going to come before it’s identified and he gets out there. Linebacking in this system is hard. At the moment, Ross is the guy who can do it.
To a lesser degree this goes for Hawkins, but as I said his caution in zone at this point is preferable to peeking at the running game. It also makes him a better run defender since he’s always had that underrated ability to fly down and make a stick that fan brains don’t contemplate:
The transition costs that set these veterans back were necessary but can still be frustrating.
Speaking of frustrating, Green was supposed to be Brian’s boy.
You’re not talking about this.
Because that can happen to anybody. German Green remains a good to excellent man-to-man cornerback. This has no linebackers in coverage and is expecting the ball to go to one of these WRs in all the space. Both CBs play right on their respective WRs’ hips, and when the throw comes Green flips inside where he can break it up if accurate.
Unfortunately he still seems a little lost in zone.
On the other hand at no point did I want to give Vincent Gray a gentle talking to.
Um yeah. By the end of the offseason we were calling BS on the program talk that DJ Turner II was the savior because what can you say about Gray that anybody is going to believe? I did believe they would start Turner anyways because very few guys ever come back from a JT Floyd 2010-like campaign. I was still ready to not believe my eyes or my charting on this one until Sam was like “No that was the fastest guy in the MAC" whom Vincent Gray was running with step for step without interfering.
Combine that with the play above and several throwaways at Gray where he was in position to intercept if the ball was catchable and you’ve got the beginnings of a Floydian turnaround. Caveat MAC but Gray also seems to be more of a natural when facing the offense. His stick that Ojabo wiped out wasn’t just a blast; Gray stayed over the in-breaking route that’s supposed to clear him out during the play-action mesh, read the QB’s eyes flip to the flat, and then broke.
This game was the best possible that could be hoped for from Gray. Next step is to put two good days together.
PFF didn’t like Nikhai Hill-Green’s debut but you like him?
I do. NHG’s job wasn’t as difficult as Ross’s. Most of the time NHG was tasked with seeing how the double in front of him was going and then activating to ensure his impact was felt. His impact was felt. He was also Ross-esque as a blitzer.
He had one bad missed tackle on La’Darius Jefferson after flashing outside to maybe TFL, and he was the LB who got caught peeking at the play-action when WMU was able to bootleg down to the goal line on the first drive. Those were big negatives that resulted in an even +/- day. They’re also fixable things. We didn’t see much of Junior Colson—just enough to know he’s fast—so it’s reasonable to assume he’s nowhere near Hill-Green at the read-and-attack stuff. I can see why the coaches like Hill-Green though, because he is willing to stuff his nose in there.
Do you have a favorite non-Hutchinson defensive end outside linebacker?
The “linebacker” who frustrated me the most was David Ojabo. His athleticism didn’t translate to pass rushing like Hutchinson’s, and meanwhile his rawness was very evident on a number of bounces to the edge that should have been TFLs. He was also getting held like a motha on most of those plays so I’ll reserve judgement. His athleticism also isn’t quite good enough to play linebacker.
This goes back to Michigan playing with a fifth defensive lineman instead of a hybrid linebacker on the weakside. A hybrid safety like Ohio State or Alabama uses would run that play out of bounds for no gain. A regular OLB from the Wisconsin ranks would probably keep it to two. It gets four because for all of his athleticism Ojabo is a defensive end, and not a Rashan Gary freak who can move like a linebacker at defensive end-size. He has to get a better feel for what he can get away with and not give up the edge, which will come with time, probably not in time for Ohio State.
If I had to choose one of the DE types to pair with Hutchinson, it’s probably Mike Morris. Not only does he seem to have the pass-rushing ability of the other guys—e.g. Taylor Upshaw—but his DE/DT positional flexibility allows them to switch between their fronts without changing personnel. Just put his hand down as a DT and you can quickly go 5-2 from 4-3 even if the offense is trying to tempo on 3rd and short.
#90 the 2nd guy down on the DL
Speaking of Don Brown anchors,
Aidan Hutchinson’s All-American campaign is on. They only had him on the field for about two thirds of the game, but in that time he did damage. You saw a few of the plays above already. Here’s the strip sack:
And you can search his name in the play by play and find four more instances I felt I had to clip to belabor a point I don’t need to make. The WMU tackles were vastly overmatched, and when they started trying to chip Hutchinson or double team him, it created single-blocks that the other DL—especially Welschof—were able to turn into pressures.
You know another way to quantify his play without making your readers search on their phones?
Chart.
Defensive Line | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Smith | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | Has a push-pull move. Needs another. |
Hinton | 3.5 | 2.5 | +1 | Thought this would be better. |
Jeter | 5 | 4 | +1 | Good against single-blocking, bad vs doubles. |
Speight | 0 | DNP | ||
Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | Encouraging. |
Welschof | 3 | +3 | Passing down DT, took advantage when Hutch got doubles. | |
Whittley | 0 | DNP | ||
Hutchinson | 23 | 1 | +22 | Did this on like 30 snaps. WMU just overmatched. |
Ojabo | 3 | 10 | -7 | See the athlete, expectations scaled way back. |
Upshaw | 2 | +2 | Good at DE things, but... | |
Morris | 5 | 1 | +4 | It's real. Anchor type can be 3-4 DT or 4-2-5 DE |
Harrell | 1 | +1 | OLB-ish. Took RB on Mesh. | |
McGregor | 1 | +1 | Got a snap as a DT :[|] | |
Newburg | 0 | DNP | ||
TOTAL | 52.5 | 23 | +29.5 | Hutchinson and Just Guys, hope this was a good MAC OL. |
Linebacker | ||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Ross | 12.5 | 12 | +0.5 | Tough job isn't enough to excuse Mouton play. |
Hill-Green | 5 | 5 | 0 | Not afraid to stick his nose in. Some fixable offenses. |
Colson | 1.5 | 0 | +1.5 | Bush-like speed, not given the hard stuff. |
Mullings | 0 | DNC because I stopped when he came in. | ||
Barrett | 0 | DNC | ||
TOTAL | 19 | 17 | +2 | Linebacker is hard but Ross was disappointing. |
Secondary | ||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Hill | 8 | 2 | +6 | Space backer of space. |
Hawkins | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 | Rough day in zones. |
Moten | 4.5 | 1 | +3.5 | I like him. |
Paige | 0 | DNC | ||
Kolesar | 0 | DNC | ||
Moore | 0 | DNC | ||
Green | 4 | 4 | 0 | Good in man, still lost in zone. |
Gray | 7 | 0 | +7 | Holy cannoli. |
Turner | 0 | DNC | ||
Johnson | 0 | DNC | ||
Seldon | 0 | DNC | ||
McBurrows | 0 | DNC | ||
Green-Warren | 0 | DNC | ||
TOTAL | 25.5 | 12.5 | +13 | Worried about complex coverages. Not worried about edges. |
Metrics | ||||
Pressure | 14 | 5 | +9 | Ball out fast, Hutch or guys freed bc of Hutch were coming. |
Coverage | 18 | 16 | +2 | Zones/pattern matches were shaky, Gray/Hill were good. |
Tackling | 14 | 6 | +8 | One whiff, DBs did work, front 7 leaked a lot of lurches |
RPS | 2 | 3 | -1 | Kept it pretty vanilla except the one interesting drive. |
Not a lot of surprises there.
Who’s Mr. Worldwide this week?
As a reminder, our criteria here are versatility, the ability to make your teammates better, being cool against long odds, and enjoying time spent under highway overpasses. This is decided after the second UFR. Your top three this week:
- Ronnie Bell. THE CATCH, which might actually be what we needed to finally get rid of John O’Neill. The Catch and Run which I remind you was a 3rd and 3. He also blocked on the Corum TD and had a big return. All of Michigan Stadium is his highway overpass, and the love that he was getting from 113,001 people in it as they carted him out was heart-stopping as well as gut-wrenching.
- Mike Sainristil. Michigan’s best tight end. From Eastern Massachusetts, which is just one big highway overpass.
- Nikhai Hill-Green. Earned the start in his first game as a redshirt freshman over returning starter Michael Barrett, five-star Junior Colson, four-star classmate Kalel Mullings, and a legion of former starters and never starters who left the program because they could see “the other guy next to Osman Savage” was going to get all their playing time. Made Mazi Smith and Chris Hinton and Donovan Jeter look cool by shooting into their double teams when they were starting to give way. Seemed to enjoy ending up buried by said double-teaming linemen who were indiscernible from overpasses.
Easy 3-2-1 point system so our standings:
3: Ronnie Bell
2: Mike Sainristil
1: Nikhai Hill-Green
All complaints about these selections should be directed to local author John U. Bacon, in person in a few hours.
You seemed to be getting upset about something on the radio today.
I had to stop charting the refs for my own sanity. I have never seen a group of people so consistently incompetent who weren’t doing so on purpose. John O’Neill, his fat side judge, and the sleepy umpire don’t know the rules. They don’t watch the game. They make it hard to enjoy because their wretched ineptitude is inserted into more plays than not.
You can tell the players feel like chumps if they don’t take advantage. I watched several Eleby games this offseason and never saw him take a dive before. It didn’t work for him but it did for his punter. Hutchinson fell down and they gave him a flag. Once again in an O’Neil game a team losing by a lot got escorted to the red zone chunk plays off of ridiculous non-calls. They blew the Bell catch. Nobody could possibly be enjoying this. Please get anyone else.
Heroes?
Aidan Hutchinson, Daxton Hill, and Vincent Gray. Just three totally alike dudes.
Maybe not so heroic?
Ross, Ojabo, Hawkins, Green not in man coverage.
What does it mean for Washington and the future?
Baltimore Rome wasn’t built in a day. The guesses about Macdonald’s defense were pretty spot-on, including the one about how Clinkscale’s coverages are going to take some time, and linebacker is a very hard job.
Aidan Hutchinson is a cheat code against WMU OTs. This could mean Hutchinson is every bit the Bosa as the Bosas, or that the WMU Ts are awful, in which case you are worried about the non-Hutchinson DEs when they face better competition, but still not worried about Hutchinson.
The DTs can survive a good MAC interior OL. There were no walk-ons. A day of taking on double-teams was mostly quiet, which again might spell trouble down the road. We’re going to have to adjust our points expectations for them now that they’re not being asked to be playmakers as much. Mazi Smith’s push-pull move is nice but needs to be paired with something or come out faster. Encouraging signs from Kris Jenkins, who wasn’t supposed to be a contributor until next year.
Cornerback not gonna die? Green has to clean up his zones but Gray’s performance was encouraging. WMU clearly wanted to Ricky White him and it didn’t happen. String two good games together then we can talk about breathing when a ball is in the air.
Nikhai Hill-Green and RJ Moten may start for four years. Strong debuts for both guys, who passed last year’s starting viper and third safety to earn starts in Year 2, which is Year 1 because of the COVID year.
David Ojabo not quite baked. Pulling him out of the oven for most of last year showed as much as the athleticism. He was the hidden (and not so hidden) reason for a lot of good defensive plays turning bad. Might be better suited to an Uche role this year while he gets a better feel for edge things offscreen.
Hill is your spacebacker. Much better use of his abilities than uncoached Cover 2 safety #analysis.
September 10th, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
The Bo and Mo teams... whenever a play was made, no fewer than two teammates would rush to the playmaker, the latter would also be waiting for it. Loved seeing the comraderie and playing as a unit. The Carr years I noticed that this was fading away and replaced by the player after the play celebrating in a look-at-me way and scant teammate congratulations..... It continues today, I see Hutch make a play, and he points to crowd etc. In his father's time he'd simply turn around and be mobbed by teammates. Seems trivial on the surface , but I don't think it is. Maybe because gone are the yelling hard ass coaches, and forges the players as a unit, but I doubt it that. My best guess that it's a sign of the times and generation.
September 10th, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^
I wonder how much D line rotation we will see as the year goes on. Would love to see more Morris, Jenkins and Welschoff, maybe some Whittley too, but definitely some McGregor!
September 10th, 2021 at 9:17 PM ^
Things didn't feel right with Big 10 refs before gambling. I don't understand how some of these guys continue to have jobs, other than no one else wants to. Make the position more lucrative and train these guys better. Refereeing is held up with too much sanctity: You can't complain about it or use it as an excuse regardless of actual impact, and it feels like Michigan football gets disproportionately shafted, regardless if home or away.
September 11th, 2021 at 1:05 AM ^
Dax Hill is a fucking physical savage. Top ten pick and future All Pro.
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