Unverified Voracity Is Panda, Hammers Comment Count

Brian

So this happened. This is going to get out of control.

I'm warning you to brace yourselves for how out of hand this is going to get.

This is where we got involved.

And then Smoothitron from the top rope:

I hope you lashed yourself to the deck before reading this collection of tweets.

A coaching carousel on deck. At the midway point of the season it's looking like this could be an interesting December:

  • Les Miles is already gone from LSU.
  • Brian Kelly is 2-4 at Notre Dame, is definitely losing to a service academy, and is unlikely to make a bowl.
  • Charlie Strong is running out of rope at Texas, now 2-3 and 0-2 in the Big Twelve while playing horrendous defense.
  • Baylor still needs a long-term coach.
  • Oregon is 0-3 in the Pac 12 and may be thinking about pulling the trigger on Mark Helfrich.
  • Both LA schools have two conference losses already and sit at 3-3; wholesale collapse from one or the other isn't out of the question.

All of these schools will be pitching Tom Herman, and either all but one or all of them will end up disappointed. Once you get past Herman, up and coming candidates include... uh. Harbaugh acolyte Willie Taggart's turned USF around, PJ Fleck's itching to move up for anyone who's a boat enthusiast, and that's about it. Gonna be some weird guys getting head coaching jobs at major schools this offseason.

The situation in East Lansing. It's not good if you're a Spartan fan, but you're not no matter how much you're scouring the RCMB for hilarity and then emailing me when Google naturally responds by popping up MSU ads on this here site. (You know who you are. You are legion.) So it is good.

Bill Connelly had a deep dive into the decline from a team that was technically invited to the playoff to one that S&P+ currently has at 20% to make a bowl game. I jokingly referenced it in the game column but it deserves some actually attention. The problems in approximate order of severity:

  • The OL is a "sieve." This has led to some ugly rushing stats ("85th in Rushing S&P+, 101st in rushing success rate, only 18 rushes of 10-plus yards (119th)") despite having LJ Scott, who I continue to believe is the truth. It is also getting Tyler O'Connor sacked a ton.
  • The DL is a nonentity, deep into the triple digits in sack rate and largely responsible for a rushing S&P+ that is just as bad as their offenses's. This was predictable to some extent since MSU took not one but two grad transfers on the DL in an effort to shore up their line after Craig Evans and Montez Sweat got booted.
  • It's an old team not likely to have a midseason turnaround as the youth gets their heads on straight.

The numbers figure to get a bunch worse next week, when S&P+ finishes whittling away the preseason projections that still make up a portion of their rankings. Without those projections MSU, currently 60th, would be 84th. Even now S&P+ has Michigan a 25-point favorite(!!!) on the road in East Lansing.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the season?

A couple more things about MSU. Their depth chart this week features an OR between their top three QBs. Also, instagram sleuthing by iSportsDave seems to indicate that Riley Bullough is out for the season. Or possibly another one of their linebackers.

Weekly fancystats love us update. Michigan is now 85%+ to win each game before OSU and an 18-point favorite against Iowa, the toughest remaining game before Football Armageddon II. S&P+ sees that as a dead heat, with OSU getting a slight edge because the Game is in Columbus.

In other S&P superlatives, Michigan is #1 nationally in:

  • field position
  • opponent success rate (at 19% Michigan is giving up less than half the number of successful plays than an average D-I D)
  • points per trip allowed once the opposition gets inside the 40
  • rushing defense, rushing success rate, and adjusted line yards
  • passing defense, passing success rate, and adjusted sack rate
  • standard down D, success rate, and line yards per carry
  • passing down D (they're top five in every other passing down category but not #1, shame)
  • third down D
  • havoc rate

The D is on pace to be historically good.

Ross Fulton on OSU's (relative) struggles against Indiana. OSU still won comfortably, but under 400 yards against a hurry-up team like IU is a sign that the Buckeyes are indeed mortal. Ross Fulton examines why that was so:

The simplest explanation for Ohio State’s passing problems was that J.T. Barrett was off. ... As he admitted after the game, he again refused to take the open underneath routes. For instance, below he does not get the ball to Curtis Samuel out of his break.

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He instead tried to force mid-range passes. But such throws were often late and with too much velocity, leading to inaccuracy high and outside. ... The game became reminiscent of other contests where Barrett was off, such as Penn State in 2014 or Michigan State last year, when Barrett missed open deep throws. As Meyer reiterated in his Monday press conference, Ohio State’s offense is based upon running the football and hitting vertical shots off play-action. Without such completions, opponent safeties can play aggressively downhill, resulting in a lower rushing success rate and a less efficient offense.

Things went from bad to worse last year because Barrett was decidedly not off, hitting two heavily contested bombs. Even so, if Michigan can put the game on his passing chops their chance to win goes up a great deal.

Perspective. The Rutgers game continues to generate thinkpieces, like this one from Inside NU:

The Romans at the Battle of Cannae, for example, were outsmarted and then completely destroyed by Hannibal’s Carthaginians. Rome’s armies took a full decade to recover. At the English victory over the French in the Battle of Poitiers in 1356, the entire French army fell apart and the French king was captured. Significant parts of France would remain under English rule for nearly a century.

Michigan 78, Rutgers 0 is worse than any of that. At least the French could claim that they brought an army to Poitiers. At least the Romans can take pride in the fact they had a plan whatsoever, even if it was incredibly dumb. Rutgers could not do anything. It was immobilized through lack of competence. The closest historical comparison is the Battle of Ulm, in which Napoleon was able to capture a huge Austrian army simply through highly skilled movement over the course of three days. And even then, it’s hard to compare. It took Michigan three hours.

Yes, it's a very Northwestern piece. I can't wait for The Only Colors to write one through the lens of the greatest Jerry Springer episodes they've seen or participated in.

NLRB is coming at the NCAA again. With the O'Bannon case now finished with no clear victory either way, but the NCAA did take hit as an antitrust violator. The National Labor Relations Board has now handed down a ruling that refers to football players as employees and bans certain practices:

In an unprecedented foray into college sports, the National Labor Relations Board has declared that Northwestern University must eliminate "unlawful" rules governing football players and allow them greater freedom to express themselves. The ruling, which referred to players as employees, found that they must be freely allowed to post on social media, discuss issues of their health and safety, and speak with the media.

The new rules apply to the football programs at the 17 private universities that play in the FBS, including schools such as Notre Dame, Stanford and Baylor -- but not public universities.

This is not a big thing right now but might open the door to more seismic items.

(HT: Get The Picture.)

Etc.: Grant Newsome hopes to return next year. Peppers now #4 in Heisman odds. The Daily on that. Tracking Michigan-Union hockey in depth.

Comments

WolverineHistorian

October 11th, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^

In my fantasies, the MSU game will be like it was during the Schembechler years. Sparty comes roaring out of the tunnel ready to dominate. In the first quarter, they're already down two touchdowns and they're hanging their heads on the sideline, taking cheap shots out of frustration and all the drama is over right there. In reality...that won't happen. As awful as they have looked, they won't give up and they will play better.

Same goes for Iowa. The Hawkeye team that was deadlocked with Rutgers 7-7 in the 4th quarter will be nonexistent when we come to Iowa City.

Even before Michigan football's nosedive to hell 8 years ago, it was hard not to notice how often teams play their crappiest games against the crappy schools and don't display those qualities against us.

These are going to be dog fights.



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FreddieMercuryHayes

October 11th, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^

I'll never discount MSU under Dantonio until a whole bunch of more years suggests I do.  But, man, this really could be the worst team Dantonio has ever had at MSU.  And this could be the best team UM has had in like 20 years.   I still think it will be a slog because MSU will be up for it and have weird things saved in the bag...but it also wouldn't surprise me a this point for it to look like the UM/PSU game either.  But without Barkley.

pkatz

October 11th, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^

Yes, it's a very Northwestern piece. I can't wait for The Only Colors to write one through the lens of the greatest Jerry Springer episodes they've seen or participated in.

Bando Calrissian

October 11th, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^

ThIs December's Coaching Carousel is just all an elaborte rouxse for the true reason for the season: The final and glorious ascendance of Da Coach Oeaux.

"DIS HERE BE MY MOMENT , AMERICA!"

Wolverine In Exile

October 11th, 2016 at 3:10 PM ^

LSU could do worse than Da Coach O. Considering the lack of top flight candidates and the fact that Auburn, Miss St and maybe Ole Miss may be changing coaches also, LSU could keep DACOACHO, he'll keep the 5-star recruiting pipeline going for at least 1-2 years, keep LSU winning 8-9 games a year, and leave the cupboard full for when LSU decides to go all in on the next hot thing coach (maybe after Saban retires). You keep Coach O knowing he's a placeholder that probably won't set the program on fire as long as you keep a bevy of quality assistants around him. 

 

And I say this having lived through the Hoke years.

oriental andrew

October 11th, 2016 at 2:17 PM ^

they're certainly many orders of magnitude better than RCMB, but they've also largely seemed to have given up on the season. They now have like 3 posts per week (one of which is an NFL Sunday game thread), haven't had a game recap since wisconsin, and comments are pretty pessimistic and mostly looking forward to (firing their coaches, recruiting better, basketball, maybe making a bowl game). 

FreddieMercuryHayes

October 11th, 2016 at 3:32 PM ^

Not entirely sure, but they used to have a guy, Chris Vannini (sp?) that managed their blog, and while obviously a big MSU fan, was actually able to analyze the team critically and objectively when needed.  He took a job at another sports site and the guy now managing the blog is the guy who predicted MSU would go 12-0 and lose in the natty game this year.  He appears much more able to completely ignore emprical evidence and go full on homer. 

DGM06

October 11th, 2016 at 2:07 PM ^

A huge reason for the drop off by MSU this season is turnover margin. They were +14, +19, and +13 in the last 3 years and this year they are -2. A lot of their wins the past few years have been 1 possession games, making those turnovers extremely valuable to their success.

Brimley

October 11th, 2016 at 2:12 PM ^

Waaaaay early in his head coaching career, but will he get a sniff or two just based off his first year recruiting at Maryland and the lack of obvious candidates?

funkywolve

October 11th, 2016 at 2:20 PM ^

if Maryland finishes strong, maybe.  However, they still have OSU and UM, road trips to Nebraska and Indiana.  By the time December rolls around I'm guessing Maryland is about a ,500 team, which probably won't get Durkin many sniffs.  

maize-blue

October 11th, 2016 at 2:27 PM ^

I think there is a chance Mark D. leaves after this season. It is a small chance, but I think it is there. Unlike others, I think UM will be super ready and focused for the game Oct. 29th and win easily. They will be foaming at the mouth to get even for last year's game. I think they win by 14+. It may be close for a little bit, then UM will blow the doors off of them.

What took years to build at MSU will be done this season. I don't think they are getting back to what they were.

The Legion

October 11th, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^

I like the optimism with this statement, but Mark D is not going to leave MSU for another job because he, among any other coach in D-1, has earned the right to have a down year. What he has done for MSU football is approching legend status faster then people may think. He had a down year when UM beat MSU under Hoke and came back stronger than before. He is just recharging. Will most likely need to shake things up with his staff after this season ....probably, but will come back from this season just as he did before. His hate for everything Michigan is what keeps him from taking another job and from MSU being what they were before he took over the coaching role. The result of this year's game will not undo what took him almost a decade to build up. 

The Legion

October 11th, 2016 at 3:38 PM ^

If he wanted to cash in his success for a job at an elite program the likes of ALA, LSU, UT, USC, etc he would have done so already. He has had several seasons where he did very well and could have taken higher profile jobs, but he has chosen to stay at MSU because he does not need elite level recruits to win games. He has beaten OSU several times, when OSU's recruting classes were far superior in talent in the previous years. The only way he is leaving MSU is an off the field issue (health, etc). Or, if the OSU job opens up of course...

South Bend Wolverine

October 11th, 2016 at 3:03 PM ^

Yeah, that's the thing with Harbaugh - especially with position coaches & whatnot, he's not looking for guys who want to spend the next 20 years of their life coaching WRs at Michigan or something.  He's looking for guys on the way up, and guys on the way up are going to know what an opportunity it is to be able to work on his staff.  Some amount of turnover among assistant coaches is actually a good thing, because it shows that the guys you're bringing in are desirable commodities who are earning promotions, rather than guys who have topped out at a mid-tier position.

South Bend Wolverine

October 11th, 2016 at 2:49 PM ^

Brown's a lifer for sure.  He's 61 years old, he's done a spot of head coaching at lower levels but if I'm reading wiki correctly, he voluntarily switched back to being a coordinator at the 1-A level.  He seems to be a career coordinator at this point.  I'd be very surprised to see him want to leave & take on a major project when he can roll with Harbaugh and be his right-hand man.

Drevno, you never know.  He's only 47, and he hasn't had a taste of being the top man anywhere yet.  He does seem to love working with Harbaugh, though, so I wouldn't be surprised if he stuck around at least for a good while.  We could have this troika at the helm for some time to come.

Brimley

October 11th, 2016 at 3:04 PM ^

Absolutely right on Brown.

If memory serves, when Harbaugh put his staff together, it was clear that several were ambitious and looking to move up (which is part of the reason Jim liked them) and that was true for Drevno.  I won't drop from shock if, as the carousel goes round, someone from a mid-major got a promotion and Drevno was in the mix to replace him.  Given the growth on the oline, that makes me sad, but JH has to have some ideas on replacements.  He seems like he's always a few moves ahead.

Blue Sharpie

October 11th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^

Harbaugh will always do great things with QB's. Drevno is so valuable for the OL and makes him more valuable than a passing game coordinator for our type of offense. I love having Jed as our passing game coordinator, but I think having Drevno around as long as possible is more important.

matty blue

October 11th, 2016 at 2:44 PM ^

god, i love it when sparty implodes.  question:  did riley bullough pull a...(hesitates)...pull a bullough and beat the shit out of someone?

also, i love a good jason and the argonauts reference.  nice.  you don't get that at RCMB.

 

evenyoubrutus

October 11th, 2016 at 2:45 PM ^

The best part about MSU: It's not like they're building for next year.  They lose 4 starters off the O line, TE Josiah Price, WR RJ Shelton, and as of now they do not have a proven QB.  The only upperclassman couldn't even beat out Tyler O'Conner.  The only good things they have coming back on offense are their center Brian Allen, LJ Scott and Donnie Corley.  On defense they lose just about everyone in the front seven, which probably includes McDowell, and possibly Ed Davis if he doesn't get a 7th year. and two starting DB's.  Even if Lewerke turns out to be a good revelation, I seriously doubt they will be much improved over this year.

South Bend Wolverine

October 11th, 2016 at 3:07 PM ^

I think what a lot of us predicted after Hoke's successful first season is now finally happening.  Sparty can only really be at their best when Michigan is down.  A resurgent Michigan means Sparty gets put back in their place.  As long as Dantonio is there, they'll have some success and they'll certainly always be especially prepared to face us.  They've had their time in the sun, and while they'll have a moment or two here and there going forward, it's pretty much going to be back to business as usual in this rivalry.