jim harbaugh
lolus
coaching fiasco 2014
stephen ross
steve addazio

SEARCHBITS XXI: THE TIELLUMINATI Comment Count

Brian

harbaugh-baalke[1]

Harbaugh wears ties for these kinds of events

IS IT HAPPENING? More unconfirmed reports that it's happening, including a number of people sending me a receipt for ties from Van Boven—a local upscale men's retailer—destined for one Jim Harbaugh in California. HE GOT SOME TIES is in the THEY'RE SHOPPING FOR A HOUSE vein of circumstantial evidence, except… somewhat less convincing. But I'm pretty sure Jim Harbaugh just got some ties from Ann Arbor. Or at least someone who knows him sent him some.

Please do not send Jim Harbaugh ties unless he's coming back, readers.

In less speculative connections: players on the team are pretty optimistic. Some recent grads have the same agent as Harbaugh and they are feeling good about it, and it's filtering out as they tell the people around them. The telephone chain is pretty long here (Harbaugh to agent to recent graduate to current player) and there's a natural inclination to turn "it might be happening" into IT'S HAPPENING along the way, but… yeah, players on the team are thinking it's happening.

I have totally unconfirmed reports that there's a verbal agreement and the only thing that could nix it would be an NFL team coming in with a ludicrous deal. I don't know if that should make you feel better or worse, because a ludicrous NFL deal is definitely a possibility. Conflicting reports on whether Hackett and Harbaugh have actually met/talked or if this is still at the agent stage. I don't buy the verbal agreement bit—too much telephone for that to be meaningful.

I can state that there is stuff going down at the regents/AD level, with meetings scheduled today and Monday. It is possible some of these meetings may turn into public events. Something is happening. Is it IT?

FWIW. I find the react posted by thosewhostay7 to be pretty credible; people have been questioning whether I still buy it. I'm not saying it's gospel, but it is a data point, one that agrees with other stuff I've heard: Harbaugh is just now seriously considering his future, Michigan wants this done by January 1st, and that even if an NFL team promises him the moon the fact remains that he has an owner who is likely to meddle. "Autocracy" is in fact what college offers, for the most part. Bayesian reasoning, man: this is not as good as getting a call from Hackett but it's enough to move the needle some.

This is in conflict with the done deal stuff, yes. I think the done deal stuff is less accurate than the above. I know you don't want to hear some of it; don't shoot the messenger. My current status: considerable, but fearful optimism.

ROSS IS NOT GETTING INVOLVED IN THE BAD WAY (FOR NOW). Ross puts it out in the media that he's not interested in being an NFL suitor for Harbaugh:

Despite widespread media speculation that the Dolphins will pursue 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, owner Stephen Ross has shown no indication that he has any interest in making a coaching change, sources told the Miami Herald on Thursday.

Furthermore, the organization has no desire to be used as leverage in Harbaugh’s upcoming negotiations — which some see as inevitable based on Ross’ previous relationship with Harbaugh.

Given previous speculation that he would jump in if Michigan was out, that's good news. For now.

MORE ON TIMING. December 23rd has been kicked around as a potentially important day; it is, but not because it's Harbaugh's birthday. I mean, it is important because it's Harbaugh's birthday. If he comes that's New Christmas. In terms of the coaching search, though, it's important because it's one of two scheduled meetings between Hackett and the team. That's a point at which we might get unofficial word, or at least a vibe on whether it's happening.

The second meeting is scheduled for the 28th. You will no doubt read something into that whether I tell you to or not.

THE PRECISE NUMBER. Bruce Feldman and John U Bacon both said the Godfather money mentioned by the NFL press is not accurate. If so it's not that far off, as I've heard numbers ranging from 45 to 49 pretty consistently and Webb is saying that is the number, period. PFT is on point with their article, noting that the offer is disputed "because of course it is." This coaching search, everybody!

The number that is likely in dispute is how many years it is, as that has ranged from six to eight. Have heard that in lieu of a traditional buyout, the contract is backloaded to encourage Harbaugh to finish out the deal.

Either way we are talking Saban money, enough that if Harbaugh does stay in the NFL it isn't about said money.

LET'S READ EVERYTHING INTO PRESS CONFERENCE QUOTES. Harbaugh did not say "screw you guys, I'm going home" yesterday, but in terms of reasonable presser outcomes this was pretty good:

-Q: Have you been offered a contract by the University of Michigan?

-HARBAUGH: As you know, I only talk about the job that I have. We’ve been together a long time. Always been my policy.

-Q: Trent mentioned recently that you and he met briefly this week and agreed that you’d talk about everything at the end of this season. Was that something you asked for? How did that come about?

-HARBAUGH: As you know, Trent and I have discussions every day. So…

-Q: You said in the off-season that your intention was to coach out this contract. Is that still your intention?

-HARBAUGH: Umm… Yeah, I’ve said I’m going to finish this ’til the end. My focus is the same as the players’ focus, it’s the same as the coaches’ focus, the focus on the practice field, the focus in meetings, by our players, by our coaches and by me.

That is our focus–this football game against the San Diego Chargers. And playing well and winning. That’s where our energy and focus is.

San Francisco beat writer and licensed internet troll Tim Kawakami thought there was something a bit different with Harbaugh:

You wont have Harbs to kick around anymore? Let's read into that excessively, okay? Okay. It's agreed. Based on a licensed internet troll's opinion of Harbaugh's body language, Harbaugh is a lock. Glad we could come to this opinion together.

YOU OWE US A DOLLAR. Steve Addazio signs an extension based on rumors that Michigan might be thinking about thinking about considering making him a part of their long list. This turns into:

This development removes Addazio from the search for a new coach at Michigan, where he was considered one of the prime candidates after San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan didn’t make direct contact with Addazio, but a source said the school reached out to gauge his interest.

My eyes roll so hardcore at that. Yes, Michigan pinged Addazio's agent. They pinged David Cutcliffe. They pinged a number of people who aren't in need of an extension right now. None of that means anything except you are on the long list. Football Scoop of course took this as evidence that their previous take on Addazio was gospel and I mean… cumong man.

A lot of this is people talking to coaches. Why would coaches know anything about Michigan's search unless they are actively involved in it? Coaches are not sources.

I AM NOT IN HARBAUGH'S BUSHES. I had to miss my weekly spot on WTKA because I'm out of town, leading to a joke about how I'm in San Francisco. I am not, please don't blame me if everything falls apart. It is not because I'm creepin'.

A REMINDER. Chatsports is not credible, even if they've moved on from the Ace Williams moniker. Good luck at prom this spring though.

ETC.: I RTed Scott Paterno saying something really dumb. RIP to da mentions. Lesson learned. Miles says some more stuff that's not quite about not coaching Michigan. Harbaugh the recruiter.

Comments

Blue Mike

December 19th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

To me, I don't see how the NFL guys could have any "insider" information on this.  Their sources tend to be either agents or people who work for an NFL team, neither of which are in play here.  Harbaugh's agent doesn't need to leak anything at this point, because there aren't any other bidders for JH's services.  He'd be playing his cards too early.  No other NFL teams are going to have any insight, because nobody in the NFL is involved yet.  SF probably doesn't even know what is going on yet.

That's why I would trust the Michigan guys more than the NFL guys.  That, and they seem to be reporting information that hasn't already be disproven, or at the least is totally illogical.

I do think this all changes if this saga makes it to the end of the NFL season.  Once those teams can get involved, the NFL guys will be all over it.

Joined: 12/12/2012

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Chitown Kev

December 19th, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^

it's simply from the the NFL POV and only the NFL POV, it seems, with all of the requisite spin.

 

and i do think that these NFL insiders and whatnot DO have information even though it's not the end of the NFL season. They probably know things that we don't that aren't being reported.

They really don't have the UM end of the story and aren't working all that hard to get the UM end of the story because that is not their agenda (not that there isn't anything wrong with that...at least the advocacy sports journalism that Brian does here is honest).

 

 

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Chitown Kev

December 19th, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^

it's simply from the the NFL POV and only the NFL POV, it seems, with all of the requisite spin.

 

and i do think that these NFL insiders and whatnot DO have information even though it's not the end of the NFL season. They probably know things that we don't that aren't being reported.

They really don't have the UM end of the story and aren't working all that hard to get the UM end of the story because that is not their agenda (not that there isn't anything wrong with that...at least the advocacy sports journalism that Brian does here is honest).

 

 

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Go Blue in MN

December 19th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^

If I'm the Jets' owner, and I want JH, I call the 49ers and begin a dialogue with them and seek their approval to begin a dialogue with JH's agent about a long-term contract, personnel control, etc.  In fact, I would have done so last week or even earlier.  Thus, the Jets would be "a bidder for JH's services" under this scenario, and we can't rule out that this is occurring and being leaked to the NFL reporters.

I retain optimism because the info from the NFL media has tended to be a little internally inconsistent (like why has Michigan apparently been sitting on their hands and doing next-to-nothing with Plan B candidates if JH initially "rebuffed" Michigan; makes no sense) and has not floated details specific enough to indicate that another NFL team is seriously in play at this point.

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jmdblue

December 19th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^

but I'm pretty sure the last presidential loser was basing his confidence more on his "gut" and his outwitted campaign staff that any actual "reasonable" sources.  I also remain doubtful of Harbaugh's arrival, but every day that passes without leaks of other serious candidates is good for us.

Joined: 12/01/2010

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stephenrjking

December 19th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^

I'm not talking about the presidential loser's confidence, but also the confidence of many who shared his political slant and had rational reasons (such as real issues with polling assumptions that became significant last November) for doing so. Perhaps you were only reading coverage from one side of the spectrum; that's fine, of course, but then you sound like Joe Average NFL guy who reads none of this stuff from he M perspective but bases his prediction on Harbaugh on only what Rappoport and Schefter tweet. Reasonable people can disagree. That's kinda the point.

Joined: 03/15/2012

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Chitown Kev

December 19th, 2014 at 3:20 PM ^

not to get into politics but...

There seems to have been an expectation based one one type of electorate showing up at the polls. Another electorate showed up and an electorate least favorable to that candidate.

The reverse happened in 2014 (and 2010).

 

All available information needs to be considered and reconciled in order to achieve a reasonable prediction...

 

I still think it's 50/50 that we get Harbaugh...OK, maybe 57.5/42.5 or something like that. I'm optimistic...but cautious.

Joined: 10/01/2011

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Ghost of Fritz…

December 19th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^

...in the national sports press than I do. 

I agree with your general point about avoiding confirmation bias.  But I think that you place way too much confidence in the reliability of national ESPN and NFL network reporters. 

ESPN and NFL network 'reporters' are not Woodward and Berstein types.  They are, at best, hybrids between real journalists, mouthpieces for brands, and providers of entertainment/infotainment. 

Their job is not to be 100% accurate and circumspect in their reporting.  Instead their job is to provide enteraining talking points, drive clicks, eyeballs, twitter followers, etc. 

Market forces will not punish them for being inaccuate (except in very extreme cases).  To the contrary, market forces will punish them for for admitting that they do not have much information on the topic of the moment.   Who clicks on a link titled "Harbaugh?  We got nothing!"?

In other words, no one will "swoop in and supplant them" if they are fast and loose with the 'facts' and otherwise fail to use journalistic bast practices.  Instead, they will be replaced if they engage in the most responsible forms of jounalism and, therefore, fail to attract clicks, viewers, generate interest, etc. 

Also, the statistical models that correctly predicted the last Presidential election are not really a useful analogue for confirmation bias in the Michigan search.  Elections present a wealth of very good data and very robust models (which some choose to ignore at their peril).  In contrast, the Michigan coaching search is characterized by a paucity of good data.  We are stuck with rumors whispered by unnamed sources.  And those whispers are transmitted by people who want clicks, not Woodward and Bernstein style responsible journalism. 

I agree with you other point, however.  We should not place much confidence in the "IT'S HAPPENING" edge of the internet whispers either. 

 

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stephenrjking

December 19th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^

You've got this wrong, because you're conflating two different kinds of talking heads.

Your typical guys that get most of the screen time are guys that are producing talking points, driving clicks, producing quotes, and all that. Quite true. That's where you get things like Kirk Herbstreit (who I like) calling Miles-to-Michigan.

But guys like Jay Glazer and Adam Schefter are engaged in a cutthroat battle to break real news first and best. They are not analysts, though they might occasionally venture in some analysis for tv/radio purposes. They report. They cultivate sources. They, unquestionably, know more than they can actually write or say on air. Sports news orgs pay significant cash for them to produce, and if another guy is better, that guy gets paid too. Schefter is a good example--he got hired by ESPN because he was scooping Mort and everyone else on their staff.

So I'm talking about the specific set of guys who really gather the hard information. If they get stagnant, they will open a space for someone else. If they are inaccurate, they lose significant prestige and their networks suffer. They are incredibly careful about what they report on, because (as we've seen in other spheres recently) being seriously wrong is a problem.

 

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Ghost of Fritz…

December 19th, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^

You are in part correct.  Some guys are just there as entertainers (Lee Corso, etc.).  And other guys are in fact reporters (of a sort) that have to develop and protect sources, and generate real reporting.

The part that I believe you are missing is that even this latter set of guys are not really only (or even mostly) pure reporters.  They also pay a big infortainment and brand advancement role, too.  And if they fail to perform this infotainment and/or brand advancement role, that too will cost them their jobs. 

Shefter is a good example.  It is certaily true that a guy like Shefter can advance his career by being the first the break accurate stories.  And if he never has any real breaking stories, or is never accurate, etc., then he might be let go at some point.  so he does have to develop and be careful with his sources.

However....  A guy like Shefter often also functions as a talking head used to fill space in a segement.  The segment must be filled and it does not matter much (or at all harm Shefter's career) if that something falls well short of high jounalistic standards.  It does not have to be a piece of high quality reporting.  It just has to fill a space in a segement with something that sounds authoritative.  

The network is doing a segment on Harbaugh.  The need someone to give a sound bite or two.  Cut the Shefter stating that he spoke to some unnamed source who said X ...  

Does not matter much if X has no idea, or if X is a blind person touching just one leg of the elephant and then guessing that it is a tree. 

In short, yes, superb reporting can be part of what guys like Shefter do (or are supposed to do).  But most of what they do is fill space in segements with stuff that is in fact of low quality, as judged by professional jounalistic standards. 

High quality jounalism gathers a significant body of information.  It waits until a full picture comes into focus.  It cross checks multiple sources.  And only after all of that does it publish.  Woodward and Bernstein were not forced to say something everyday about Watergate.  They had the luxury of waiting to publish until there was enough new information, and enough corrobiration and careful fact checking, to justify a new piece of reporting.  It took months. 

But that does not fit the ESPN or NFL network business model.  There are topics that must be discussed right NOW.  There is no waiting.  No allowance for multple sourcing and delaying until a full and accurate picture comes into focus. 

Instead it is 'Everyone is talking about X (say Harbaugh) and we are going to talk about X, too.  Put Shefter in front of a camera to play the part of a reporter.  Have him say something--anything--about X.  Is it accurate?  Complete?  Don't know.  But it sounds and looks the part, so role it.  Tomorrow we'll be on to the next hot thing anyway...'

 

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htownwolverine

December 19th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^

I want to apologize in advance to my three sons for what will not transpire this weekend.

We will not be able to make our Xmas cookies, go to The Five Armies, see the Santa Village or basically anything else this weekend. You can go ahead and play your wii u for 72 hours stratight as your daddy will be F5'ing every keyboard in the house like a pavlov mouse on crack. 

If Santa brings daddy his Harbaugh I will make it up in spades next week.

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carlos spicywiener

December 19th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^

The rumor that Harbaugh, should he come here, would have to come here for the long haul - that actually gives me pause.

He likes doing quick 4 year rebuild projects it seems, and honestly it increases our chances if Harbaugh knows that coming to Michigan doesn't have to be permanent.

I would prefer that he comes here (if he does) with the knowledge that he could go back to the NFL if he wants to.

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gwkrlghl

December 19th, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^

but I thought the terms sounded like they'd be better for someone who wanted to hop ship quicker

Have heard that in lieu of a traditional buyout, the contract is backloaded to encourage Harbaugh to finish out the deal.

That says to me that it's actually easier to leave, but you have to leave a lot of money behind. Presumably if he's leaving, it's because someone offered a f*ck-ton of money and he wouldn't miss his last 2-3 years pay at that point, no?

Joined: 04/13/2012

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M-Dog

December 19th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^

Makes me nervous that there may be no actual buyout.  Makes it easier for him to leave when/if an NFL team with an ideal situation finally does occur.  

But on the flip side, this make me think even more that it is a done deal - Harbaugh to Michigan.  This is a creative way to address the Michigan or NFL question.  It leaves open the door to the NFL, making it easy for Jim to follow his heart and go back to Michigan now. 

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aiglick

December 19th, 2014 at 2:00 PM ^

It essentially is a buyout built into the contract. Aren't these type of contracts usually evenly spaced out so that if it's $49 million in 6 years he would get $8.1 million per year. If the back load the contract it would maybe look something like this $6 million for the first four years and then $12.5 million for the last two. If he leaves after four years in this scenario he's be leaving half of the money behind and we'd be saving about $8 million over the four years that we otherwise would have paid under a different structure. Even if there's no official buyout that looks implicitly like a great way not to get screwed, yet still gives him lots and lots of money may not be the only motiation here but it is important.

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alum96

December 19th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^

I don't think you can read much into his small sample size on what he "likes".

He was at San Diego, a FCS school.  He got a chance to coach in a Power 5 conference.  So he changed jobs.  He did all he could do at Stanford in 4 years short of winning a NC.  He had an offer to go to the NFL in the exact same "town" (region).  He changed jobs.  He was undercut by management this year in the NFL - so he is changing jobs.

There are specific reasons for all these, with 2 of them being natural promotions.  The last could be for a myriad of reasons - one theory being Jim just burns so hot he can't stay in an NFL situation with the same players for that long (which is not an issue in college)

So I'd be wary about making any broad assumptions of how he just likes to stay someplace for 1 presidential cycle.  Most aspiring head coaches that move up thru the ranks stay 3-4 years at place X before moving up the next place in the ladder.  Until they get to the place they ultimately want to be.  For all we know he wanted to stay in San Fran for 15 years and be the next Bill Walsh.  Or be the next Bo here.  We have no idea.

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blueinbelfast

December 19th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^

I'd be very surprised if some version of "In the long term, the NFL will continue to be an option for you, but this is almost certainly your only chance to coach Michigan" doesn't make its way into Hackett's discussion with Harbaugh.  Sure they'd love him to stay forever, but the best way to fend off the desire to win the Super Bowl objection is to make sure he understands that that dream will still be plausible. 

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Ray

December 19th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^

In hearing him speak about Bo, the program, and the history, I really think he'd be here to rebuild the program, become a part of the lore, and see his statue put up next to Bo's.  

If that happens without having to put 20 years in, put me down for a thousand bucks towards building the statue. 

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winterblue75

December 19th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^

So people have been sending Brian copies of receipts from Van Boven because people at UM have purchased maize and blue tie(s) from there for JH to wear at a press conference? Am I reading this right?

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stephenrjking

December 19th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^

It's all circumstantial. Like the house shopping. It just means this is a real possibility. Why does this have to be a done deal for someone from Michigan to say, "Let's ship a nice tie down for Jim for a presser, show him we mean business." It doesn't have to be a done deal for a spouse to call an agent to find out what kind of houses are available should a move be made (indeed, that seems almost a pre-requisite for a spouse if she is being consulted in the decision). It just means that the offer is legit. And, apparently, that it is getting real consideration. But we already knew that.

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Moe

December 19th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^

That you lead with ex players (and recent grads) who have the same agent as JH finding out some of the info.  They you talk about thosewhostay7 in the next paragraph.  Maybe thosewhostay7 is one of those people?  That's the first thing that came to mind...maybe Brian even knows this person.

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