Mailbag: QB Is Not The Major Problem, Revenue Increases, Oregon's Thing Comment Count

Brian

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[Bryan Fuller]

Quarterback is not the only difference.

Brian,

Something you may not wish to address in season but in watching this team I had this thought:

Solid run defense, inconsistent pass defense, an offensive line with talent struggling to gel, solid backs, receivers and tight ends.  Hmmm, sounds like 9 or 10 wins from Carr again. What is missing is a solid, low turnover, accurate, quarterback. Completely unfair?

Thanks

Dunder

Cumong man, that's completely unfair. You're comparing this offensive line to those featuring Jake Long or a half-dozen other NFL players, with zero freshmen of any variety on them unless they're Hutchinson-level talents. The backs don't make the right cuts and almost never make yards on their own. The tight ends are not good right now except for Butt, and Butt is still working his way back from an ACL tear.

There's no part of this team not subject to mental breakdowns that are hard to accept four years in. This includes quarterback, but since it seems like any QB under Hoke goes backwards it all ends in the same place.

BUT IS HE BETTER THAN A WISTFUL ORANGUTAN?

Brian,

In the wake of the ND game i have found my anger directed more at Dave Brandon than anything for whatever various and stupid reasons. The conventional wisdom seems to be, "hey, but revenues are increasing so, even though football is terrible and the stadium experience is horrible, Dave Brandon is great at growing the business." I think that is non-sense. I looked at revenues from 2002 through 2013 (graphs and numbers in attached spreadsheet) and the trendline attached to the revenue data shows Brandon has not out performed Bill Martin. Growth in revenue looks very on trend from Martin's tenure.

Screen Shot 2014-09-15 at 12.37.20 PM (1)

If you look at Michigan's AD revenue from 2005 versus some other athletic departments (texas, OSU, florida, Alabama, Oklahoma) our athletic department hasnt outperformed them either. Those five ADs revenue increased 84% from 2005 til 2013, Michigan's increased...83%.

Screen Shot 2014-09-15 at 12.37.45 PM (1)

Look, the data i gathered isn't perfect, I don't love the way USA today presented the 2005-2013 data. I've sort of cobbled together the 2002-2004 data from U-M budgets. The way i have presented the data is somewhat problematic (i should index 2005 to 100 then see the changes from there), but I don't think it changes the overall picture.

The point is I am really bothered with the conventional wisdom saying Brandon is doing really well increasing revenue. He is merely riding a wave that started long before here was hired and affects all of college football. Raising ticket prices doesn't make you a business genius. He gets zero credit for increased television revenues, which are the two overwhelming drivers of the whole enterprise.

These are things I am sure you are aware of but i have not seem them articulated on the blog.

Go Blue!

Nate

It should also be noted that the portion of the surge from 2009 to 2011 not due to increased BTN payouts was largely the luxury boxes coming online. Michigan offered them for cheap the first year and then increased the price to the regular level in year two.

So even if you are measuring Michigan athletic department success by revenue—a completely bonkers thing to do—Brandon is completely average in this department while being literally the worst AD in the country at public relations. A wistful orangutan could have been Michigan's athletic director since 2010 and revenue would still be way up. And students would love him!

[After the JUMP: Manning plausible as a CB coach over time? Mysterious red clad team-thing. Where to go in the event of an apocalypse. (The real apocalypse, not bad football.)]

Hi Brian,

There's been lots of talk about coaching issues, from the head coach to individual position coaches. Do coaches get better over time? Do they adapt to new concepts, become better playcallers, become better blitzers, etc.? For example, is Roy Manning a great coach who is new to cornerbacks and needs reps in his new gig to become competent and then good? Or will Roy Manning never be a good CBs coach because he hasn’t played the position and there are things you can only learn by playing the position?

Best,

Stephen Bowie

Manning certainly could become a good CBs coach in time. You see guys flip from one position to others plenty early in their career. Some guys even go from defensive coaches to the other side of the ball—Rich Rodriguez was a defensive back. So it's not out of the question.

Making him a CB coach right before a drastic shift in your defensive philosophy is going to get a cocked eyebrow when it really, really does not work out, as it hasn't. But at least Jourdan Lewis is playing well?

Hi Brian et al,

Not that it's really relevant to anything, but I was wondering if you noticed that blotch of fans adorned in red in the southwest corner of the stadium, about halfway up. There must have been 30-40 of them all uniformly wearing red. It seemed like they sat there as statues do, and then left in unison with about 10 minutes left in the game.

Any idea what that was all about?

Thought you might know.

Best, 
Ryan

That was the Fairfield lacrosse team, which was in town to play Michigan and stuck around to watch the football game.

Brian,

Longtime read and great blog.  I like UM's tradition uniforms and not a big fan of Oregon or Maryland craziness, but a recent "conversation" offered a different view.

My son (8) and nephews (8 and 11) are really into sports. I asked one of them (who's really into football) who his favorite team is?  Answer:  Oregon.  Why?  They have the coolest uniforms - it's all "swag" (the kids term for bright colored tees, shorts, socks - and they HAVE to be UnderArmour or Nike, no Adidas or Reebok) color.  I saw some link on your blog mentioned the disadvantage of being Adidas, but didn't have to read.  Anyway, hooking kids early like this surely can't hurt a program.  BTW - we're in the Chicago area, where ND and B1G alum rein supreme.  Didn't matter to these kids.

When I flipped on the Boiler/Sparty game on I thought it was some sort of Oregon/MSU rematch when I saw their unis.

Chris

Oregon's marketing works for Oregon. They should do what they do; they had no identity before they became the truck-bed digital-clock-with-wings swagmasters. It makes sense for Oregon.

But if you look at most places that have an identity, they don't do this stuff. The NFL outright prohibits frequent uniform changes and their throwback uniforms actually have to be throwbacks. Meanwhile, alternate uniforms for the college football old guard are either nonexistent or rare and subtle: Texas, USC, Oklahoma, Alabama, Penn State… IIRC these teams have almost never deployed alternates. It is a viable alternative to be you as hard as you can be you.

Michigan's got a thing. Hit up a poll about the best uniforms in college football—hell, in sports—and Michigan's home blues will be high up the list, often #1. They should emphasize their thing, because I've yet to see an alternate uniform that looks as good as the real McCoy.

I asked this question on a thread on the board but I thought I'd asked you directly.  Maybe you could shed some light for me.

I know he's been around UofM since Mo, and I'm sure he understands the whole "Michigan Man" thing and what Bo meant to this program, but I'm just sitting here watching the weekend highlights of the different Michigan schools and I see Thomas Rawls. I know he's playing MAC schools and what not but why all of a sudden is Rawls breaking off 121...155...220...229 and 270 now that he is at CMU? When he was even given the chance to be on the field, this guy couldn't find a hole to run through for Michigan. 

Another guy, Mike Cox, couldn't make his way on the field either.  Then he played his last year for UMASS, put together a good enough season to get a look from the pros and now has been playing for the Giants, off and on the practice squad, since he graduated.

Put that with how we haven't had a great running back here since Mike Hart and I wonder if Coach Jackson is really not what he used to be or was he ever that good of a coach? Don't get me wrong I love the quotes over the years you've had had fun with (Jackson talking up recruits), but what keeps him here? Is he that good of a recruiter?

Do you want to see him retained assuming Hoke is canned?  Thanks for any insight you can shed on this.

-RuebenRileyonRye

I don't know what it is about Fred Jackson that makes him unkillable but I do know that when the zombie apocalypse happens I'm driving to his house and pledging my fealty to to him.

As far as your question, yeah it's looking like he's hung around long past the point at which he's an asset. Tailback performance has been general dismal since Hart's departure and development just about impossible to see in anyone aside from Chris Perry. Meanwhile, the guys Michigan has gone out and recruited have been disappointments since Hart. Drake Johnson can't see the field at all even after Green got knocked out; he was a total flier with an EMU offer before Michigan stepped in for some reason. That Rawls and Cox have performed after leaving is another strike.

There would appear to be no reason to retain him in the event of a changeover, especially with Ty Wheatley and Mike Hart waiting in the wings. But keep him in the athletic department so it survives nuclear war.

Comments

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

October 16th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^

No offense to the letter-writer, but "8-year-olds like it" is kind of a crap reason for doing swaggy uniformz.  I used to really like the Carolina Panthers when I was in, oh, late elementary to middle school, because neat colors.  I grew out of it within a couple years and had long since stopped caring by high school.  (I do still like the colors, but didn't exactly replace my Carolina Panthers Starter jacket with another one.)

Besides, the fact that the gentleman saw Purdue and thought it was Oregon is all the more reason why Purdue was making a huge mistake.  If you've done your job, anyone can turn on your game and know who's playing without needing to be told.

Also, who wants to bet that Fairfield was offered free tickets to the game as part of the incentive to make the trip, with the thought of "anything to make sure we hit 100,000"?

@TheDanHagan

October 16th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^

I don't think that Rawls and Cox just showed up at CMU and UMass and became really good running backs overnignt. The talent was there to begin with, they just never got a chance at Michigan. Cox could only get carries in the 4th quarter of massive blowout wins over Delaware State and Bowling Green after everyone else had gotten a chance. I remember admiring how hard he ran and wondered why he never got carries in real situations. Rawls never had that many carries either and didn't get a chance to develop a rythm in a game.

I don't think it's all on Jackson though. In the Rodriguez years the running game mostly centered around the QB and the running backs were secondary. Brandon Minor was a good back when healthy. Fitzgerald Toussaint had a 1,000 yard season when David Molk was around and the offensive line was competent. Vincent Smith was an excellent blocker and 3rd down back.The past 3 years have seen we've seen really bad play from the offensive line and that definitely has hurt the running game. Darrell Funk probably deserves more blame for the lack of development upfront.

Magnus

October 16th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

"Tailback performance has been general dismal since Hart's departure and development just about impossible to see in anyone aside from Chris Perry."

Hart left after the 2007 season. Brandon Minor was a pretty darn good running back in 2008-2009. Carlos Brown was arguably a good running back. Fitzgerald Toussaint was good in 2011. Otherwise, the offensive line has been pretty bad from 2012-2014.

Personally, I think Jackson gets a bad rap. Green came in overweight in 2013. Is that Jackson's fault? De'Veon Smith is slow. Is that Jackson's fault? Drake Johnson just doesn't seem very good and never has. Is that Jackson's fault? The offensive line was terrible last year and slightly better this season. Is that Jackson's fault? I'm sure Jackson has a hand in recruiting running backs, but it's not always the position coach's decision on which running backs to offer and pursue.

As for Michael Cox, I've said this over and over again: he is/was clearly a talented back. Once again, it's not necessarily Jackson's decision of whether to play him or not. Personally, I felt Rich Rodriguez was a little too enamored with the mediocre talents of Vincent Smith. I can't really speak to behavior/attitude issues, but the fact is that Cox ran the ball 19 times for 169 yards (8.9 yards/carry) and 2 touchdowns. That ought to warrant more of a shot at playing time with the starters. As far as I know, Cox was never suspended or in trouble with the law. He goes to UMass, has decent success behind a terrible OL, gets drafted, and is in his second season in the NFL.

How do we dole out credit? Cox spent four years being coached by Jackson and then earned an NFL job with his play during the fifth year. Does Jackson deserve some credit for 4/5 of his college development? Does Rodriguez deserve blame for not playing him more? If Cox is the only one who deserves credit (for having talent), then we shouldn't blame/credit running back coaches, period.

Fred Jackson didn't forget how to coach running backs. I think we need to look at the talent brought to Michigan (some of it has been questionable, and even the top-rated guy had serious question marks), the scheme, the people calling the shots (Rodriguez, Hoke), and the offensive line development/coaching.

pescadero

October 16th, 2014 at 3:11 PM ^

Hart left after the 2007 season. Brandon Minor was a pretty darn good running back in 2008-2009. Carlos Brown was arguably a good running back. Fitzgerald Toussaint was good in 2011.

 

Ugg... THAT is your bar for good?

 

Hart was a pretty darn good (but not great) running back.

 

Brandon Minor and Fitz Toussaint were mediocre.

 

Carlos Brown wasn't even that.

Magnus

October 16th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^

With a patchwork offensive line and crappy passing games, Minor averaged 5.0 yards/carry for his career and scored 20 touchdowns. Both numbers would have been better if he could have stayed healthy and/or had better talent surrounding him.

Toussaint averaged 5.6 yards/carry and had a lot of big plays in 2011.

Carlos Brown put up good numbers and had some impressive games. You could argue that he was a good running back (the offense's limitations were the same as Minor's).

If you think Brown was less than mediocre, then I think your standards are a wee bit high.

Magnus

October 17th, 2014 at 8:15 AM ^

By the way, the great Mike Hart averaged 5.0 yards/carry with a better offensive line. And he scored 41 rushing touchdowns, twice as many as Minor but on three times as many carries.

If you project Minor's rushing stats onto Hart's 1,015 carries, you get Minor as the all-time leading rusher (tied with Hart, since they have the same YPC) and with about 62 career touchdowns. I know that's not a perfect comparison because of health, offensive lines, offense, etc., but it's something to consider.

pescadero

October 17th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^

Longevity and peak performance both matter. You can't just "project".

 

I'd say during my lifetime Michigan has had

 

 "great" backs:

Butch Woolfolk

Tyrone Wheatley

Rob Lytle

 

Very Good backs

Mike Hart

Jamie Morris

 

Good backs

Chris Perry

Tim Biakabutuka

Anthony Thomas

Tony Boles.

Magnus

October 17th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^

It's all semantics. I disagree with you about categorizing a couple of those players. But really, it just depends on my own personal interpretation of what the word "great" or "good" means.

All I'm doing is comparing statistics, and Minor compares favorably with Hart. I wouldn't say that Minor is a superior back to Hart because obviously Minor had health issues, and he wasn't the same type of leader. But if we're talking about pure ability to run the football, I would say that Minor is at least as good as Hart, if not better.

pescadero

October 17th, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^

It's all semantics. I disagree with you about categorizing a couple of those players. But really, it just depends on my own personal interpretation of what the word "great" or "good" means.

 

Absolutely... and in my opinion, if you weren't at least in consideration for "best back in the country" during your tenure - then great doesn't even apply.

As some sports writer said - It's the "Hall of Fame" not the "Hall of Very Good".

 

All I'm doing is comparing statistics, and Minor compares favorably with Hart.

 

No, all you're doing is comparing SOME statistics, while not comparing a bunch of others.

Minor compares favorably with Hart in YPC and carries per touchdown.


Hart had many more carries (staying healthy is a talent).

Hart was B1G Freshman of the Year, Minor wasn't.

Hart was 2x All B1G, Minor never made all conference.

Hart had 12 games over 150 yards (28%), Minor had 3 (6.5%)

Hart had 5 games over 200 yards (11.6%), Minor had 0.

Minor also fumbled the ball as many times a season as Hart did in his career.

Magnus

October 17th, 2014 at 2:42 PM ^

Fine. But many of those statistics are dependent on the one statistic - carries. I also disagree that staying healthy is a talent. Part of staying healthy is simply genetics, body build, etc.

I'm not really sure what this argument is about, so I'm going to stop here. I think some people are good/great. You disagree. There's not much more that needs to be said.

pescadero

October 17th, 2014 at 3:46 PM ^

I also disagree that staying healthy is a talent. Part of staying healthy is simply genetics, body build, etc.

 

Is running fast a talent? A majority of running fast is simply genetics, body build, etc.

Is good balance a talent? A majority of good balance is simply genetics, body build, etc.

 

Talent: a special ability that allows someone to do something well, the natural endowments of a person

Number 7

October 16th, 2014 at 3:12 PM ^

IF M were to breakout a chrome version of the iconic winged helmet, it would be the most awesome chrome helmets ever  - should south Ann Arbor wihtstand the storm of flaming meteorites that would surely ensue.

Mpfnfu Ford

October 16th, 2014 at 10:18 PM ^

No tinkering with that. But the away uniforms have traditionally been tinkered with well before the uniformz era, so I don't see any reason why they can't play around with those a bit. I for one loved the Alabama game uniforms with the old fashioned shoulder deal. I'd love to see them come back on a regular basis. 

Year of Revenge II

October 17th, 2014 at 10:09 AM ^

I enjoyed this post and the opinions of the commentors.

As for Gardner, it is helpful IMO to remember he was recruited as a dual-threat quarterback.  Dude has great legs, but has his limitations as a passer.  As a decision-maker, I am not impressed at all.  He seems to make a lot of bad decisions, stares down receivers...I could go on, but I wont.  I have a lot of respect for him.

Dude is unselfish, changed positions without whining, conducted himself with class, etc., etc.  Pocket quarterback, not so good.  Denard as pocket quarterback, not so good.  Devin has has a few games showing a lot of potential in the pocket, but it ain't happening with him.  Time to salute him, and move on when the season is done.

His color is irrelevant, or at least it should be.  If Morris had been used like Hackenberg from the start, we might be ahead of the game now, but that did not happen.  Gardner gives us best chance for present wins, but I would get Morris some PT if I were these coaches, but they do not seem to able to see the forest for the trees, and that is being kind.  

I have no idea if Fred Jackson is a good coach or a bad coach.  How would I, or how would anyone else except those playing for or coaching with him, and you won't get the truth from most of those.  I just think it is time for us to bring in some fresh blood, and Jackson is definitely part of that problem.  Running backs have underperformed since Hart, Touissant included.  I would blame the backs, the OL, and the coaches designing and calling the plays, not necessarily Jackson.  But it is way past time for us to thank him and move on.

umfanchris

October 17th, 2014 at 3:09 PM ^

 

Sorry I know I am late to the comment,s as I am just catching up on the last couple of days of articles. I was glad to hear Brian defend Gardner from the first question in the mailbag and think the person asking the question gives the rest of our offense WAY TOO much credit. Solid backs, receivers, and tight ends? Our backs are average, they barely have any Yards after contact and constantly pick the wrong holes to run through. Other than Funchess we don't have a consistent receiver. And Funchess has been hurt since the 2nd game of the year. We've seen key drops from the receivers and not one of the receivers other than Funchess is a big play threat. Jake Butt is a good Tight End, but is still slowly working his way back to the Jake Butt of last year with his ACL injury. Other than him, no tight end on our roster has impressed me at all. You also have to put some of that blame on Nussmeir and Hoke as well. There has been lots of bad play calls and the coaches inability to get the team up to the line of scrimmage early has cost this offense (and Gardner) on many plays. When the offense gets upto the line with 9 seconds left on the play clock that means Gardner doesn't have time to read the defense and definitely no time to call an audible. By no means do I think Gardner hasn’t had his own issues that have hurt us, but he also is not the majority of the reason for our struggles. Almost any QB would struggle with our offense right now.