LSU 77, Michigan 75
via Alejandro Zuniga
I'm starting this a little before 2 am, so this won't be a standard recap. Some scattered thoughts following a loss that may have a big impact on this season in several directions.
The schedule impact is rough. Michigan's tourney fortunes may end up tied closely to the fate of this LSU team if the Wolverines end up on the bubble. While LSU has looked good early on, they were terrible last year—this could wind up being a bad loss on the resume, though I suspect Tremont Waters is going to get the Tigers respectable soon. The bigger deal is having an opportunity to play Notre Dame replaced by a date with D-II Chaminade, a no-win game for Michigan. Instead of getting three quality opponents out of this week, they only get two.
The point guard situation is the team's biggest problem. Let's get the bad out of the way. While there were some flashes of talent from Eli Brooks, who canned a pull-up three and had a nifty drop-off assist to Moe Wagner, the point guard position is still in major flux. John Beilein put his trust in Brooks down the stretch; Brooks missed a couple crucial shots, got pickpocketed by Waters, and had a difficult time staying in front of Waters down the stretch.
Those are growing pains you expect from a freshman point guard. The problem is that Brooks is being relied upon in the first place. Zavier Simpson almost wasn't playable because of his passivity on offense—he didn't attempt a shot in ten minutes—and he had his troubles with Waters as well, picking up four fouls. Jaaron Simmons went 0/1 with an assist and a turnover in 15 minutes. Even if this team is going to run through the wings, which it sure looks like will be the case, they need way more production from this spot.
Duncan Robinson's defense is one, too. LSU mimicked Oregon's game plan from last year's tournament, isolating Robinson when they got the opportunity and attacking him off the dribble. To little surprise, this worked.
Far more concerning was Robinson's offense, which was all but nonexistent. He was unable to shake lanky 6'5" wing Brandon Sampson, scoring his only points on a transition three and getting nothing in the halfcourt. Michigan will be in trouble against bigger, more athletic teams if they're unable to find ways to free up Robinson for shots.
Charles Matthews looks like a star. There was still plenty of good in this game, none better than the performance of Matthews: a game-high 28 points (9/15 2-pt, 1/2 3-pt, 7/10 FT) with six offensive rebounds and two assists while playing his usual strong defense.
Michigan's offense was at its best when it ran through Matthews, especially when he paired with Moe Wagner (24 points, 6/7 2-pt, 3/7 3-pt) as a screener. The most effective play was the side pick-and-pop, which opened driving lanes for Matthews to sky for short jumpers and easy midrange opportunities for Wagner. It took the team most of the first half to find this offense, however, and they strayed from it at times in the second; I'm excited about the future of a team that makes this their identity.
Other quick notes:
- While Jon Teske didn't make a huge splash tonight, he still looked good out there. He batted another offensive rebound back out for a reset, engulfed a shot off a drive, and dished out a pretty assist. His post passing looks like it could be special—it's already quite good.
- This was a rough game for Ibi Watson, who chucked four shots, making only one, in eight minutes and giving up some easy blow-bys on defense. He's going to lose his minutes to Brooks and perhaps Jordan Poole, who got in for a minute tonight, if things don't get better fast. He may be a good player in practice but it's not translating to games.
- Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman had an uneven performance. He couldn't find the mark from the outside, missing all five of his threes. He was great at getting to the basket, however, and made 4-of-8 twos, including some tough baskets to keep it close down the stretch. MAAR was often the only Wolverine willing to assert himself, especially when Wagner and/or Matthews weren't on the floor.
- Isaiah Livers had a putback and a steal in 12 minutes. I noticed some trouble on defense and on the boards, though, and that type of stuff is going to hold him back from getting more minutes unless Robinson goes into an extended slump.
- Tomorrow's game against Chaminade tips off at 8 pm EST on ESPN 2.
[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]
November 21st, 2017 at 9:27 AM ^
Who does he advocate firing?
(In all seriousness, we're going to miss Billy Donlon being the "Defensive Coordinator" this year)
November 21st, 2017 at 9:32 AM ^
You heard it here first.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:18 AM ^
I said the exact same thing during the live feed last night
and the homers jumped all over me.
Don't get a good vibe from this team,
too many holes that will be magnified during B1G season
November 21st, 2017 at 9:33 AM ^
I'll admit I watch almost no NBA these days, but I would think this would be a liability at the professional level.
November 21st, 2017 at 9:40 AM ^
Let's see, everyone started bashing Beilein last year and then we went on a run late in the season to the Sweet Sixteen and nearly the Elite Eight. We then sent two players to the NBA including another lottery pick. This year we're replacing three starters and have two more potential draft picks on the roster. We also just signed our best recruiting class in years.
And yet a 2-point loss to LSU has now prompted the following gems from the comment section:
- This team is like all other Beilein teams - SOFT
- Rotating PGs is a coaching travesty
- This team is already in the NIT
- Let's watch out for the Division 2 team we play today
- We should play Rahk at the PG (without an explanation of whether that means Ibi Watson or Isiah Livers is going to start getting a ton of minutes and leave us with one true ball handler on the floor)
Yes, losing is frustrating. Yes, we have a long way to go before we'll feel confident in this team. Yes, it felt like the basketball gods were kicking us in the groin just like the football gods have with all the 50-50 plays/calls. But jumping jesus on a pogo stick - it is one loss by 2 points thanks in large parts to some frankly insane shots by their PG. The world is not ending. Please try to watch more basketball than 4 games before throwing in the towel on Beilein - I think he's earned it.
November 21st, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
PG play is the other concern. One of them has got to take over. I'm surprised that Simmons hasn't done that yet.
B1G play starts next week.
November 21st, 2017 at 10:07 AM ^
I think people are just getting a little fatigued by this process. We know Beilein will fix a lot of these issues, but it would be nice to have a good basketball team before the last month of the season.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:16 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 1:02 PM ^
Northwestern is literally coming off its best season in history, and this year they are supposed to be even better--a Top 20 program.
They are currently 3-2, after getting bombed by 37 points by freakin' Texas Tech.
This U of M team has always been expected to be somewhere in the 21-40 range. There are a lot of new players, especially at the most important position, PG, so there are going to be some ups and downs.
This woe is me after 1 game is a bit ridiculous.
November 21st, 2017 at 10:36 AM ^
Quite a few of the people on this thread probably didn't watch the game last night and are reacting to the final score and KenPom number. While I ultimately contend that the game came down to 2-point shooting defense (Michigan was awful) and rebounding (both teams got ~40% of available offensive rebounds!), the sheer number of bounces that LSU got was crazy. Of course -- there was no guarantee that Michigan was getting the rebounds if those shots hadn't fallen.
Also, the game was officiated completely differently between the two halves; I don't think either team adjusted well to that on defense, and I think it led direcly to the insane offensive efficiencies by both teams in the second half. (46 points on 32 possessions for each). Michigan was whistled for 7 fouls in the first 8 minutes of the half and two more by the 10:00 mark -- LSU was in the double bonus for half of the half. LSU was whistled for about the same number, so I don't think it was some kind of referee conspiracy -- just a completely different style that made both teams tentative on defense.
Finally, keep in mind that KenPom is largely based on last season's results at this point, and LSU was awful last year. But Waters, their freshman point guard and Top 50 recruit, had himself a heck of a game, and they're under a new coaching staff. LSU is not going to be a 10-win team this year. I'm not saying they're great -- they're not -- but this loss isn't nearly as bad as, say, losing at Penn State with the Big Ten title on the line.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:55 AM ^
Well, I'll speak for my part of your list. If you think rotating PGs is a recipe for success then...hmmm...I'll state it as "nicely" I can, "You don't know a damn thing about the game". "We" point guards rule this game and don't you forget it. You live or die with us. On the one hand we are fragile but on the other we are cold-blooded assassins and ice runs through or veins. Don't mess with the PG!!!
Otherwise, the better-coached team usually wins those 2 point games...and losing such a lead down the stretch is a tell-tale sign here as well.
November 21st, 2017 at 10:00 AM ^
needs to wake up. i don't think anyone was expecting him to replace walton, but he plays scared out there, especially on offense. his a 5th year guy. he needs to get aggressive. this is a guy who has scored 30+ multiple times and was all MAC. i'm shocked he hasn't taken over that PG spot.
November 21st, 2017 at 10:05 AM ^
I know Michigan lost a significant number of points, rebounds, assists, and defensive production from last year, so maybe a slow start to the year should be expected this year, but it seems like every year Michigan gets off to a slow start and doesn't really develop into a decent team until March.
November 21st, 2017 at 10:36 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
I think the PG play is going to hold this team back all year. I see a lot of things I like from the rest of the roster. It's to bad we couldn't have found a way to get Walton a sparty sixth year. With him I think they are in the notch below championship mix, without him they may be on the bubble.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:18 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:22 AM ^
could be a tough two years indeed.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:33 AM ^
Is he in his last year of eligibilty?
November 21st, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:25 AM ^
I'm trying not to get too emotionally wrapped up in basketball this year, but that was a huge choke. Aside from Wagner and Matthews, this team frankly doesn't have any above-average players. Watson and Davis were head-scratchers when recruited, and remain so today. Meanwhile, lightly-recruited Donnie Tillman is putting up double-doubles in his first few games at Utah, Quentin Goodin -- an elite 6-4 athlete passed over for Simpson -- looks very solid at Xavier, and Jamal Cain has a bright future too at Marquette. These were all very gettable guys with zero interest from the powerhouse programs who were passed over for less athletic system players. The team will no doubt get better but it probably lacks the playmakers to win the big games.
The looming home matchup against a shaky, young UCLA squad is looking like a must-win right now.
November 21st, 2017 at 12:00 PM ^
truth be told,
both football and basketball coaching has left a lot to be desired !!
Certainly not up to the expectations of MICHIGAN !!
November 21st, 2017 at 11:33 AM ^
The point guard position is disappointing but expected. Zavier is a division II player. Evident from the first moment he stepped on the court. He is a two minute per half player. You simply can't have a starting point guard who gives out 2 assist and has 0 points. Well I guess you can and then you go to the NIT.
When taking a transfer we have to be more careful. When Simmons said that he wanted to play a year of power five basketball because he wanted to go to the NBA we should have listened more carefully and would have heard, "WNBA". If this is a system adjustment then what kind of system do we have that takes a 15ppg scorer and make him a 2ppg scorer.
Note to self: When players (Simmons and Okorn) can't play at Houston, they can't play in the Big Ten.
Our freshman classes continue to disappoint. The "Great" recruiting class of 2016 has given us nothing. If we are focused on Teske's 5 minutes a half then that tells you how bad the class has been. This is 2017, young players have to contribute. 2017 looks slightly better pending Brooks stint at guard.
We were really fooled by a great last two weeks of the season in 2017. We then lost our best two players and expected improved results this year.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^
Are you at Applebess right now?
November 21st, 2017 at 2:06 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:50 AM ^
We'll get better.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^
I saw five minutes of the game, and what I saw was that I liked seeing Livers' size, but on defense he let his guy go by twice, as if he were a turnstile and simply turned his body. Beilien will fix this.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^
was terrible... it was team effort..
November 21st, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^
Another year where the coach doesn't have the team ready to start the year and another schedule that is so poorly put together that we are already squarely on the bubble. This is what Michigan basketball is most years under Beilein. Rinse and repeat.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^
...have to admit, was expecting more from this team
November 21st, 2017 at 12:10 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^
If so, I have no idea why we didn't use it. MAAR took a terrible, double covered running 3. We have got to get a better look than that.
November 21st, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^
I thought the second half was pretty good offensive execution with good ball movement. What I can't figure out is why M continued in man against a team clearly built to create dribble drive penetration wth lots of isolation.
But LSU had a mini run at the end, taking full advantage of poor defensive effort by Zavier and Brooks 1 on 1. Zavier came in and gave up back to back scores with nary an effort.
MAAR forcing a bad shot at the end without dribbling to the middle of the floor was not good for a senior. Not sure I'm a fan of MAAR being a primary source of scoring but whatever.
November 21st, 2017 at 2:16 PM ^
We had 19 more shot attempts than LSU. We still lost. Seems to be a once a year trend for Beilein teams. Last year it was South Carolina. Hopefully this is the one time this year. I don't think this team is soft. Mathews and MAAR had some awesome takes to the basket. We lost because we shot 25% from 3. They shot lights out--especially Waters who was frustratingly good.
November 21st, 2017 at 7:04 PM ^
We shot about the same number of shots as SC last year: one fewer FG and 14 more FTs for just 6 more shot equivalents.
We were 2/26 which is truly abysmal from three last year but last night we were 26 percent. That's not horrible. It'll happen again this year, probably multiple times that we shoot that poorly.
They shot just 42 percent from three, which is good, but certainly not lights out. They won because they made 20-29 two pointers which was allowed by our poor perimeter play and lack of rim protection/help. Waters was really good, and he made the one circus shot/layup but all the other twos were in the flow of the offense that our defense didn't do much to prevent.
November 21st, 2017 at 6:08 PM ^
LSU looked really good. That freshman PG is a stud. We have lots of good pieces but we don't look like a team yet. This looks like another tense bubble year where we get better as the year goes on and things are close at the end. This game would have helped a lot to get us on the right side of the bubble.
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