same [Paul Sherman]

All The Reasons This Basketball Team Is Pretty Bad Comment Count

Brian January 20th, 2023 at 12:05 PM

I am ready to call it: the tourney streak is over. Michigan is currently the 25th team out on Torvik, currently estimated to have an 0.1% chance of receiving an at-large bid. They've got about an 8% chance to sneak in by winning the Big Ten tournament, largely because the league is very very bad this year.

This is quite a fall for a team that is coming off four consecutive Sweet 16s and was a one seed two years ago. How did we get here? Let's assess.

The Number One Recruiting Class In The Country was fool's gold. Michigan's heralded recruiting class of 2021 has one player in a meaningful role: Kobe Bufkin.

The two five-stars were essentially busts as college players. Caleb Houstan was a mediocre, streaky, defensively-meh wing who contributed nothing when his shot wasn't falling—which it almost never was outside of Crisler. Moussa Diabate was less frustrating but was a 20% usage guy who had middling efficiency. He had a lot of promise as a defender, but offset that promise with a lot of freshman mistakes. Both guys left to be second-round picks and are currently buried on NBA benches, so Michigan ended up playing a couple of middling players for heavy minutes—Houstan especially was inexplicably un-benchable—and those growing pains are benefiting this team in no way whatsoever. You can argue that having Houstan and Diabate around last year is worse for this year's team because other players would have more on-court experience.

Meanwhile, Frankie Collins transferred away from a near-certain starting job after Michigan added Jalen Llewellyn in the transfer portal. Collins is not exactly good at Arizona State. He's shooting 40% from two and his TO rate is over 20. But he's improved his shooting, adding 20 points to his FT% and hitting 33% of his threes; he's also got a massive assist rate that's 24th nationally. He's ASU's highest-usage player; his ORTG of 100 is bad… but it's 10 points higher than Dug McDaniel.

The other two players, Isaiah Barnes and Will Tschetter, were always long-term projects. In year two it appears neither is ready to take on a significant role. They're both averaging 4 minutes a game. This in and of itself isn't a big problem except for the fact that the aforementioned three players are not here.

If there's a lesson to be learned here it's that certain five stars aren't worth it. You have a guy headed for the lottery? Ok, get him. One-and-done second rounders are not worth bothering with. Also, try to avoid players who have not spent more than one consecutive year anywhere since middle school. 

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[Campredon]

Bufkin is good, and it's probably not a coincidence he's in the recruiting sweet spot that hits around #50. He was the #46 composite prospect, which is out of the range that the NBA is going to take you even if you're not any good yet because there are only so many people with NBA-capable bodies in the world. It is in the range where you can expect to at least get the "hey, NBA, check it out" year from a player.

[After THE JUMP: more bad things! No good things!]

Admissions shot down Terrance Shannon. There have been rumors about how hard it is to get non-grad transfers into Michigan for years but never a case where a player has more or less explicitly been denied. Shannon is the exception. If Michigan's transfer process was not idiotically onerous he would be on campus:

Shannon is an efficient, high-usage wing for Illinois instead, shooting 54/34/77 from the floor with a massive FT rate. He's also a 6-6 wing stopper the likes of which this team badly needs. Illinois is just 4-4 in league play but is about 30 spots higher than Michigan in Kenpom and is projected as a 9-seed on Torvik.

Not letting in a potential paradigm-shifting basketball player because his credits won't transfer is the kind of Queensbury rules thing only Michigan would do to itself. Let's hope this sort of thing doesn't happen under Santa Ono anymore.

Hunter Dickinson isn't Hunter Dickinson this year. These numbers have come up a bit but there's still a stark dropoff from last year's Dickinson in tough games versus this year's. Last year Dickinson's numbers were impressively flat when the going got tough. His ORTG was 120 in all games, 120 against Kenpom top 100 opponents, and 120 against Kenpom top 50 opponents. This year he's at 115 against everyone and his ORTG drops ten points in tougher games. His assist rate is down, his FT% is down, and in key games his performance has not been up to par. In Michigan losses Dickinson has posted ORTGs of 84, 106, 94, 81, 98 (against CMU!), 100, and 108 before a 144 yesterday against Maryland. Given the narrow nature of almost all of those losses—only Arizona State was more than six points in regulation—it's probably not an exaggeration to say that the metronomically efficient sophomore Dickinson pilots Michigan to four or five more wins this season.

I don't get it. To me, Dickinson is not fighting for good post position and getting the ball way outside the paint too often, where he then settles for jumpers. Per Synergy he's lost almost 0.2 PPP on post-ups this year, dropping from a 94th percentile player to a 70th percentile player, and that's with tomato cans occupying a larger portion of the schedule 18 games in instead of 32.

But also this bullet point leads into another…

They've either been unlucky or not clutch. Michigan ranks 308th in Kenpom's luck stat. The aforementioned Arizona State looks to be coasting to a tourney bid at 15-4 but its ranked exactly one spot in front of Michigan on Kenpom; they are 17th. Michigan is 2-8 in games that are six points or closer at the end of regulation. They lost to Virginia by 2, Kentucky by 4, UNC by 4, CMU by 2, and managed to turn a 4 point lead with the shot clock off into OT against Iowa. There is an alternate universe in which Michigan is a pretty mediocre team that is nonetheless safely in.

Llewellyn tore his ACL. Llewellyn was off the a horrible shooting start but you have to figure that would have leveled out somewhere considerably more reasonable than 19% from three, and the last two transfer point guards Michigan has brought in have all improved significantly over the course of the season. It's reasonable to assume his presence would improve Michigan somewhat, and "somewhat" is all it would take. See previous bullet.

----------------------------------------------------LINE OF DEMARCATION------------------------------------------

The five things prior to the line of demarcation are about 95% of the problem. There are a few smaller issues.

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[Campredon]

Terrance Williams hasn't stepped up. I remember frothing at the mouth during the Tennessee game last year that Williams was stuck on the bench while mope mode Houstan was giving Michigan nothing. Williams finally got in down the stretch and immediately got two crucial putback buckets. That dawg in him, etc.

Williams has about the same level of usage this year as a starter and has backslid in every shooting category. He got benched for 19 minutes against Northwestern after a couple of back-to-back hustle plays he did not make. He's just a guy.

Most of the 3/4 defenders are hideously bad. I did not expect Jett Howard to be prime Charles Matthews but he's come in under even modest expectations defensively. Joey Baker is hitting 46% from three and can't get starters minutes because he's a walking blow-by. Williams has been okay, mostly; when he's not giving Michigan much they turn to Will Tschetter, who is not a plus player on D at this point in his career. Michigan pulled out Tarris Reed to check Kris Murray for big chunks of the Iowa game and while that went surprisingly well it says something about something.

Nobody from the deep bench is a pleasant surprise. It was possible that Barnes, Tschetter, Jace, or Khayat would pop up and be an interesting 15 MPG bench guy. Doesn't look like that's happening.

Reed's free throw shooting is abominable. Reed looks like a player but Michigan had to take him off the floor for key stretches of the Iowa game because he's currently a 23% free throw shooter(!!!). You expect high TOs and iffy FT shooting from a freshman big, but this is another level.

Dug McDaniel is a yet another first year point. For the love of God, please stay on campus. This is the fourth straight year Michigan has had a new-to-the-program point guard after the Simpson era ended, and I hate it. I just want someone to run the Michigan offense like he knows what he's doing.

Comments

Blue Vet

January 20th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^

Williams looks as if he needs confidence. 

Dickinson may need to worry less about playing the villain in other arenas and pay more attention to each possession. 

Maybe a little less hero ball from Jett.

And aren't there techniques to help Reed increase his FT %? 

Gustavo Fring

January 20th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^

I am a little higher on Jett’s defense than this blog.  He has miscommunications and mental lapses at times but those have decreased dramatically.  He’s along with Kobe probably Michigan’s best on-ball defender (and it’s not close).

He leaves something to be desired as a rebounder, fails to communicate, and sometimes gets caught ball-watching.  But he’s a very good isolation defender and a solid event generator.  Miles ahead of Caleb Houstan and better than the huge liability he’s made out to be in this space.  If he was really that bad, he wouldn’t have a 7.0 BPM on one of the worst teams in the country (his offense is good but not enough to be that much of a plus if his defense is as bad as is suggested here).  

NJblue2

January 20th, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^

I disagree, Houstan as the season went along was a better defender than Howard. If you want to say he's the second best perimeter defender on this team, fine, but they're absolutely awful at defending the perimeter besides Bufkin anyway. 

Howard is an awful rebounder, but that seems more like a mental/desire thing. He's clearly athletic and big enough to be an effective rebounder, but he doesn't seem to try very hard. Overall, though the team as a whole is bad at rebounding as well so he's not the main culprit or anything.

Gustavo Fring

January 20th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^

I legitimately don’t think there’s anything Caleb did better than Jett as a defender (or basketball player) at any point in his Michigan career.  He got blown by constantly, he was also a weak rebounder, and he missed plenty of rotations.  Even when he made rotations he closed out so upright that he got blown by.

Jett is an athletic defender who moves his feet well and can guard multiple positions but makes mistakes in team defense.

Caleb is an unathletic defender who can’t move his feet well, can’t defend any position well, and still made a lot of mistakes in team defense 

ak47

January 20th, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^

I disagree with your take on Houstan in regards to team defense. He absolutely knew where to be and was a solid team defender. Its one of the primary reasons he played over Williams last year and you can see it in the defense Williams plays this year. He is out of control and often overreacting.

Goblueman

January 20th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^

1.Overall poor defense.Specifically on ball def.and def.rebs.                              2.HD not getting ball on low block, post entry or PNR. HD gets ball at wide mid post and is doubled.Easy to defend perimeter shooters on pass from that spot,only pass is long diagonal.                                                    3.Three starters are not shot creators.Jett,Dug,Kobe are shoot first,aimless dribble players.                4.T.Will simply doesn't have a Big 10 skill set.                                                   5.Limited bench compounded by Juwan's sticking to pre game sub rotation plan.A guy gets semi hot but is benched because it's time to sub. 6.The well documented poor roster construction.

JMK

January 20th, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^

Caleb Houstan might be my least favorite Michigan player ever. (Based on his performance, of course. I know nothing about him personally.) Two questions: 1.  No issues with the coaching? 2. Does limited NBA prospects + NIL = less engagement for Hunter? Alternatively, is HD’s performance being hampered by the cast around him? He has so much gravity—if the guys he’s kicking the ball out to could actually hit shots (like in his first year), maybe his performance looks a whole lot better?

colonel

January 20th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^

My sense is that Hunter is bummed about the talent around him and has let his frustration get the best of him. He needs better spacing to be effective and that's difficult when there isn't any reliable three-point shooting on the team. Having Shannon and a healthy Llewellyn totally changes that equation, as far as I can tell. 

Regardless, Hunter's up-and-down attitude is born out of understandable frustration, but it's still something he has to account for. He's got to be a better leader. Honestly, I am not sure he has it in him, and there were indications of that last year. We'd probably win less without him, but I think the team would be more fun to root for if he had moved on.

Gustavo Fring

January 20th, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^

I think the lack of engagement from Hunter at least in part can be attributed to Michigan's perimeter players not finding him early in the shot clock.  

Yesterday, he repeatedly ran the floor, did his work early to establish position or even outrun his man, but Dug and even Kobe couldn't find him in those spots.  After a while anyone would get frustrated.  

enlightenedbum

January 20th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^

Plus side, last time we left them for dead for reasons other than "Caris and Walton are hurt" Novak bled all over everyone and they finished 8-3 and made the tournament for the first time in forever?  Eh?

Which I guess would have to be Jace in this context?

cp4three2

January 20th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^

Throw in a lot of the fact that Juwan doesn't seem to be able to develop college guys, but can scheme well when the guys know what they're doing. Really explains year 1 and 2 versus the last two years. 

 

Frighteningly similar to Kevin Ollie. 

MGoBruski

January 20th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^

I feel bad for Llewellyn getting injured - never want to see that. That being said, from a roster perspective, I don't know what they saw in him as a starting B1G caliber point guard. He was right hand dominant while dribbling, predictable in his ball reversals and slow on his shot. He did not seem to have the quickness to guard the point. Yes we lost a needed ball handler, but that also speaks to suboptimal recruiting and/or use of the portal. From a game management perspective, I don't know how Hunter is always double-teamed yet we cannot free up Jett (unless he is also double teamed leaving one guy to cover our other three players, LOL).

remdog

January 20th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^

This is a great summary of all the current problems.  There are significant roster deficits due to injury, a transfer, early NBA departures, a lack of experienced talent and less than elite recruiting.  The majority of the roster is new this year and there is only one returning starter.  Instead of the expected three point guards this year, two with experience, they have only a freshman point guard.  Of their two transfers in, one is out for the season with injury and the other is a little used backup.  Their two best recruits from last year's highly rated class are gone.  Howard's recruiting has been very good.  But he has had trouble reeling in truly elite 5 stars and other recruits have been misses at the college level.  This team is talented with some elite or potentially elite players (namely, Hunter, Jett and Kobe and maybe Reed and McDaniel) but it will be difficult to overcome these roster deficiencies.  The point guard issue may be the biggest.  It would take a great coaching job to overcome them.  Howard hasn't proven capable yet with questionable talent development and a lack of fundamentals.

I haven't given up on Coach Howard but he's definitely trending towards the hot seat.  He deserves more time but a poor finish this year and then another poor year would put him on the hot seat, in my opinion.  

vondonation

January 20th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^

The Beilein and Howard comparisons are interesting. They are almost complete opposites. B was never an assistant. H was never a head coach. B had decades to refine his leadership and system while H is learning on the job. B was not a "player's coach" but H is much more and their recruiting reflects accordingly. It takes time as a leader to develop your voice, especially as a player's coach implementing X's and O's and especially discipline. Consider how B dealt with Jordan Poole versus how H dealt with Houstan. B was Mr. Integrity and H has had a few scrums reminiscent of Fab Five. 

AC1997

January 20th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^

I don't think there's much to disagree with here other than I think TWill was always projected to be a role player ideally settling in as "20 min off the bench" and brings very little as a starter because he's stuck without a natural position or marketable skill.  The best compliment you can give his game is "junkyard dog" but he's not big enough to be good at rebounding or defending 4s, he's never been a good shooter or ball handler (don't let his small sample size last year fool you).  The ideal Michigan roster has Shannon starting at the 4 and TWill getting all the backup minutes.  

I would offer up a few other "second order causes" as well:

  • PG recruiting in general from both the portal and HS is a concern.  Smith was an ideal fit for that team, Frankie was always an odd fit given his desire to dominate the ball and not be able to shoot, Jones figured it out eventually but couldn't shoot or defend, Llewelyn likely gets better but his shot and ability to run ball screens was always in question, Dug is interesting but will always be 5-9.  
  • The roster construction has too many forwards (and too many of them are "projects") and too few guards.  We papered over this by getting Eli to stick around last year and this year it blew up when Frankie left.  Even then, the fact that they didn't trust Frankie/Dug enough to recruit purely a 2 or 2/3 tells you what you need to know.  Now we have to let Kobe/Dug play 30+ minutes no matter what.
  • Meanwhile let's talk about those forwards. Houstan had to play all those minutes because we had no other 3s on the roster.  This year Jett makes 5 bone headed plays per game and never comes off because he's the only one of the EIGHT forwards who's a starting caliber B10 player.  Baker & TWill are solid depth guys but not starters. Barnes, Tschetter, Jace, Yoyo, and Glenn are not ready to play for a competitive B10 team.  That's a LOT of scholarships for forwards who can't play.  Somewhere along the line one of those scholarships should have gone to a guard or even a transfer upper classman.  Shannon sucked...but why wasn't there a plan B?  Granderson from Illinois?  Ryan Young?  Another 2-guard?  (Either Jace should have always been a walk-on or they shouldn't have signed Glenn or Yoyo when they have 3 other projects on the bench)
  • Beilein didn't exactly leave us much.  Juwan also lost Castleton, Zeb, Johns, and Bajema to the portal from Beilein's era. Colin has had a good career but is redundant to Hunter.  Zeb barely plays for a lower level team.  Johns is.....Johns.  Bajema finally learned to be the Beilein wing shooter we always thought, but would basically have Baker's role on this team.  
  • Probably due partially to youth and turnover, Michigan's defense has collapsed the past two years.  Juwan has not recruited one good defensive player besides Frankie.  (He doesn't get full credit for Franz and Diabate wasn't a good defender last year like this blog thinks.)   

What is so frustrating is that we get glimpses of what this team could be.  Prior to the Kobe collapse against Iowa, we were playing well.  UVA/UNC/UK were all competitive games.  We played really well in a couple of B10 games.  The mental mistakes are gruesome and not having Llewelyn or Shannon to provide veteran depth means there's zero margin for errors.  Teams are going to double Hunter and play a lot of zone because they don't respect our 19-year old guards (Kobe is a lot better.....still throws out clunkers like last night) and our PF can't shoot.  Feeding the ball to Hunter is a chore this year with the three young guys trying to do it instead of Eli/Jones.  

M-Dog

January 20th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^

The pieces of this team DO NOT fit well together.  We were being naively hopeful that they would.  We are getting what we should reasonably expect to get.

The team is made up of very streaky erratic young players, and older underwhelming TWill and HD.  HD has been figured out by opposing coaches . . . double him, double him, double him.  And none of the other players can consistently punish that.

No much you can really do at this point, and the deck gets substantially reshuffled next year.

It's not clear what the plan is . . . 

 

umchicago

January 20th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^

you nailed my biggest gripe about dickenson, post up within 6-8 feet from the basket so it becomes a one move bucket, not 3 or 4 dribbles with a higher chance of turnover or bad shot.

alum96

January 20th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^

Dickinson has nothing to fight for - his destiny is set past UM.  Greece, Turkey, Israel... whichever.  When your motivation is gone it changes you - any job.  And this is basically a job for him at this point.

With that said imagine the cluster if he left early as well.  It would be peak Rich Rod type level in bball.

Shop Smart Sho…

January 20th, 2023 at 2:21 PM ^

My new preferred conspiracy theory about the Houstan minutes last year is that they had to make sure he left because there was no way he and Jett could exist on the same team.

As for the Dickinson issues, I wonder how much of it is not having someone competent at getting him the ball in good spot leading to him not putting the effort to continually get good position. He knows he's the best player on the team, so that just leads to him taking less efficient shots.

I feel like him hitting his first post bucket is identical to needing Moe to hit his first 3. 

MGlobules

January 20th, 2023 at 2:22 PM ^

Well, if only Juwan had a crystal ball. Diabate looked like a two-year guy, and--honestly--calling a guy who goes to the league after a year a bust. . . dunno. That's kind of a post hoc assessment, and arguable. 

Houstan looked like a guy who was gonna be buckets and go after he was lights out from the corners. 

I don't think that if we went back and looked we'd say that Hunter was ever remotely good on D. He just had better defenders funelling players toward the rim, where he could jump straight up. 

Steve in PA

January 20th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^

Juwan is a good coach with someone else's players.  That fits with being an NBA coach.  Michigan basketball now sits in the same place Beilein had it after putting out the Amaker dumpster fire.  JB's teams started to regress and so are Juwans.

JB cleaned house and hired better assistants then his teams became elite.  Juwan inherited elite and it is becoming good.  I do not think Juwan will clean house.

My prediction:  Jett is one-and-done, Jace finishes his degree on the bench, and Juwan takes a pro job after not making the tournament.

ak47

January 20th, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^

The idea that Howard inherited elite is the biggest false narrative. Here is the roster Beilein left behind

PG: Simpson, DeJulius 

SG: Brooks, Nunez

SF: Livers

PF: Johns

C: Teske, Castleton, Davis

For folks at home, that is a team with literally no division 1 level backup guards, no wing depth, and a 4 who is proving himself to be more mid-major level at best with nothing behind him. The team also had a freshman Franz and a freshman Cole Bajema and you can blame the timing of Beilein's departure for what was a lost recruiting class. That is absolutely not an elite roster. And yet Howard actually had them playing extremely well before Livers got injured and the complete lack of wing depth sent them back to a team in the tournament but without a lot of hope for a great run. 

PeteM

January 20th, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^

Great column.

 

A lot of what I read in comments on Twitter and elsewhere is some version of "Juwan just won with Beilein's players" or "He can recruit, but can't coach."  

While I agree that the verdict may still be out, but last year's team got to the Sweet 16 with really just one Beilein guy -- Brooks (yes, I know Beilein was involved in recruiting Hunter). And I wouldn't call last year's team Fab 5 like in terms of talent, but they had a success post season.

I don't know if Juwan will ultimately be judged a success, but given his record of a sweet 16 and an elite 8 in consecutive years he deserves at least another year no matter how this one turns out. 

 

HollywoodHokeHogan

January 20th, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^

Howard could be an excellent coach and still not be JB.  That’s an unfair standard to use.  JB was the best coach in program history.

But, if Dug transfers after Howard takes a transfer PG from Dartmouth or some shit I’m going to lose my mind.

bronxblue

January 20th, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^

I cited this stat earlier in the year but I remember an announcer or a reporter noting that once Llewellyn went down Hunter Dickinson career minutes on the court were equal to the combined totals for the other 4 nominal starters and was only slightly below if you included Baker.  It's an almost comically young team and they also don't have a ton of depth at key spots.  Some of that is on Howard and recruiting and some is just bad luck.

They really are 4-5 plays away from being a mediocre-but-in-the-tourney team, and I really do wonder if they can piece together even 2-3 coherent games in a row if they can't find themselves back on what is looking like a really soft bubble.

Team 101

January 20th, 2023 at 3:39 PM ^

I agree with most of what Brian says.  I'm not sure the team would be better with Llewellyn - I think forcing Dug to learn under fire isn't any worse and may be better.

Not only is this basketball team pretty bad, they aren't much fun to watch.  I've been around long enough to see some really good Michigan basketball teams and some really bad ones.  The good ones are always fun to watch but some of the bad ones were too.  The 1981-82 squad was the worst that I can remember - they won one game in non-conference but they fought to go 6-12 in conference.  The three teams that won NIT championships were fun to watch too.  So were the Stu and Zack teams.

This team is about as fun to watch as the team we had the year Tommy Amaker got fired.  It doesn't have the chemistry that you look for.  I like the comment by the guy who tapes it and checks to see at have time whether he can stomach to watch it.

There is still a lot of season left and I hope there is the next Derrick Walton who can change the chemistry and build a champion.  I'm not wagering on it.

PeteM

January 20th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^

I don't know if this is never fun to watch.  I thought the Iowa game was fun at least from the offensive perspective. 

You make an interesting point about Llewellyn. His absence might be good for Dug's development longterm, but I think there would be games where having available (Iowa, Maryland last night) could have made the difference.

username03

January 20th, 2023 at 6:01 PM ^

We seem to have a complete disinterest in guards and perimeter players. It was obvious last year we needed more help there and would be desperate for help this year and we still stapled Frankie and Kobe to the bench. This didn’t seem to pay off much in the short term and slowed Kobe’s development and probably played a part in Frankie leaving. Now we’re doing the same thing with Barnes, I’m not saying he is great but I’m saying it doesn’t matter.

I’m not sure what’s going on with Hunter other than I don’t think it’s a coincidence no team at any higher level of basketball runs their offense through the post. I believe we’re just seeing why.

HenneGivenSunday

January 21st, 2023 at 12:33 AM ^

Lots of really good stuff in this article, and a lot down in the comments.  I’m no hoop-head in that I played the sport, but not primarily and wouldn’t consider myself a student of the game.  My comment is more simplistic, and one Juwan has to figure out along with his staff.  Too often the last 2 years, but this year is worse, it looks like these guys are a collection of puzzle pieces that just don’t fit very well.  Seemingly every game this year I find myself saying out loud, “Have these guys ever played together before?”  They just seem to have a huge lack of chemistry with one another to where they don’t look like the the sum of their parts.  We are spoiled though, because JB’s teams always seemed like they were more than the sum of their parts.  

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

January 21st, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^

This team has significant roster issues, including too much youth. A true frosh PG with no real backup who runs a complex offense … serious growing pains. Regardless, the defense and defensive effort are bad and that is 100% on Howard to fix with the current talent.

At this point, there is minimal improvement over a long stretch this season and even regression. I was sorely mistaken to state optimism after the opening game, especially about the offensive flow and potential with defense. Losing Llewellyn hurt on both ends, but nowhere close to causing all of the significant issues on the floor.

Howard has a lot of work in the off-season and next year to get the program back on track.