Basketbullets: Adjusting The Defense, MAAR's Quiet Resurgence, GRIII Dunk Contest Preview
[Speechless]
Before and after. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
At the 17:35 mark of the second half last night, Ethan Happ backed Moe Wagner down from just inside the three-point line all the way to the charge circle and hit a baby hook. That marked his ninth field goal in ten attempts; he had 20 points, five assists, no turnovers, and no fouls. Up to that point, Michigan had been content to let their big men try to handle Happ on their own, as they'd done much more successfully in the game in Madison. It wasn't working. John Beilein adjusted (thanks to UMHoops' Orion Sang for saving me the transcription work):
“We looked at our numbers last time that we played this — Northwestern just double-teamed him the whole game and it was a point per possession, and when we didn’t double team him last time it was 0.6. So we said we can have it in our package, but we’re not going to do it unless we need it. Not all of those were post-ups — he blew by Mo a couple times. Mo’s 21 points, I’m really happy about that. He’s got to improve his defense too, he got sloppy a few times. He’s just got to get better there. Happ is really good. Part of where Wisconsin is so successful with us and others is there’s just so little low-post game in college basketball. … It’s unique for people to guard.”
“(Happ’s) good. He missed some shots from four or five feet. He didn’t miss them this time. He’s a good player. But we weren’t going to change just to change knowing we had our package, and save it for the second half. Just save it for the second half and see if we need it.”
From that point forward, Happ went 1-for-3 from the field with one assist and three turnovers. He also committed five fouls, two of which came on the offensive end of the floor. His fourth foul came after Moe Wagner and Zak Irvin combined to force a miss; Happ was visibly frustrated after unnecessarily hacking Muhammad-Ali Adbur-Rahkman on the rebound.
Eric Coughlin of the Detroit News tweeted a useful chart displaying how Michigan's defensive adjustment—and Wisconsin abandoning the pick-and-roll—had an enormous impact on Happ's output:
How did @umichbball hold Ethan Happ to four second-half points last night? pic.twitter.com/typcHIJwLx
— Eric Coughlin (@EricCoughlin1) February 17, 2017
Mark Donnal looked overmatched in the first half; in the second, with some impressive help defense from Zak Irvin, he more than held his own. Irvin's offensive resurgence would've been for naught if Michigan didn't make, and execute, a mid-game scheme change on defense. It led to one of the most unexpected plays in recent memory:
My coverage of Donnal has been rather harsh at times; last night was his most encouraging game in a long time. Yes, he struggled to guard Happ one-on-one in the first half, but so did all of Michigan's big men; Jon Teske's disastrous two-minute stretch put a serious damper on the #FreeTeske movement. Donnal's seven minutes in the second half were impressive, even more so because he made a positive impact without taking a shot, which isn't exactly his norm. In addition to the block on Happ, he had a nice tipout offensive rebound and perhaps the most forceful blockout of his career:
If that's the version of Donnal we get going forward, there won't be any more controversy about who should back up Wagner.
[Hit THE JUMP for MAAR the quiet killer, updated bracket watch, and more.]
Rahk Steady
Before I get into any sort of analysis, let's all admire this for a moment:
That is, first and foremost, a great play by Walton. He recognized the late clock situation, used the threat of his outside shot to get Happ off his feet with a pump-fake, caused Wisconsin's defense to collapse, and found the open man in the corner.
What's gone largely unnoticed, however, is MAAR's improvement during Big Ten play. He started 1-for-6 beyond the arc in conference games; since then, he's 14-for-23; while shooting 61% on threes is unsustainable, his shot looks pure and he's clearly gained confidence in it. With a 50% mark on two-pointers, he's also finishing well, and he's been a reliable free-throw shooter (78%) who doesn't commit many turnovers. Albeit on limited usage, MAAR now boasts the tenth-best ORating in the Big Ten.
After showing a disturbing penchant for falling asleep while playing off-ball defense, he's been locked in on that end during Michigan's defensive resurgence, too. After Walton and Wagner, MAAR has been the team's most consistent player, even though his raw point totals wax and wane based on game flow.
More Derrick Walton Stats, Because Those Are Very Fun
Even following a 1-for-8 shooting night against Wisconsin, Derrick Walton's efficiency is a delightfully extreme outlier among top players on Big Ten teams:
I tried this for each team's "top player" based on ORtg, Minutes, and Usage in B1G games. Had to make some judgment calls in my selections. pic.twitter.com/HCAP6ns68c
— snwman (@bkbtNUmbers) February 17, 2017
He's also way out ahead of the field in a stat created by The Only Colors (PORPAG: Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game) way back when they did such things. He's now fifth in KenPom's B1G player of the year standings, too.
Post The Wagner Dunk GIF Already
Yes, bolded header alter ego.
ESPN should be prosecuted for never showing a replay of the dunk. Thankfully, our photographer Marc-Gregor Campredon got a phenomenal series of shots from the play:
There's so much to love here: the dunk itself, Zak Showalter getting tossed aside (after committing an obvious foul), MAAR's reaction, and the appearance of Zak Irvin's emoji head in the stands at the end—it was Irvin, after all, who got this all started with his post defense on Happ.
Quick Bracket Update
As you'd expect, last night's win did wonders for Michigan's tourney projections. The Bracket Matrix hasn't been updated to include projections factoring in last night's results (that should happen tonight), but there are plenty of individual updates: CBS's Jerry Palm bumped Michigan to a nine-seed, as did Yahoo's Bracket Brad, and Crashing The Dance has the Wolverines as an eight-seed(!).
These last two wins have moved Michigan's projected conference record from 8-10 to 10-8 on KenPom. CrislerSpidey's win probability graph based on those projections looks quite different than it did even heading into last night:
Winning a coin flip game will do wonders for your win probability graph: pic.twitter.com/0iFTyZ895z
— Crisler Spider-Man (@CrislerSpidey) February 17, 2017
They're not locks yet. A win on Sunday at Minnesota would get them darn close to that status barring a collapse down the stretch, and the Gophers haven't exactly been impressive even during their recent four-game winning streak; they eked out a one-point home win against Indiana on Wednesday in one of the uglier games I've watched all year.
I've Been Provided An Excuse To Post GRIII GIFs
NBA All Star Saturday Night is one of my favorite sports events of the year (don't @ me). The dunk contest is, of course, the headliner, and this year there's even more reason to watch than usual: Glenn Robinson III is one of the participants. He looks ready:
don't sleep #allstarweekend #dunkcontest pic.twitter.com/qvMgttFxKZ
— Glenn Robinson III (@GRIII) February 10, 2017
In honor of his participation, here are my five favorite GRIII dunk GIFs from his time at Michigan. These are in the old GIF format, so click the stills to open each GIF in a lightbox:
5. AHHHHHHHHH
Included as much for the situation/opponent as anything else. That said, he did damn near hit his head on the backboard.
4. Dunked Into Oblivion
Charles Buggs never played basketball again. Don't fact-check me on this.
3. Reverse Oop
I've never seen someone do that so casually before.
2. The GR360
I don't know what GRIII had against the state of Minnesota. I'm fine with the grudge, though.
1. Hang Time
A controversial choice, perhaps, but I absolutely love this dunk. Between the hang time, the MJ-esque leg kick, the off-hand behind the head, and the clean, powerful finish, there's a lot to love here.
I put together this list rather hastily. You're encouraged to rectify any errors of omission in the comments.
February 17th, 2017 at 4:55 PM ^
GRIII's time was way too short, but we at least are blessed with these gems.
February 17th, 2017 at 5:04 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^
Isn't that more of a triangle?
February 17th, 2017 at 5:07 PM ^
Not a dunk, but probably one of my favorite memories of him was the shot to win it at Purdue (pretty sure it was Purdue). his athleticism was on full display with that shot.
February 17th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^
That was the biggest shot I remember for him. Just huge.
February 17th, 2017 at 10:51 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 10:11 AM ^
Floor angle:
February 17th, 2017 at 5:09 PM ^
What really gnaws my grains watching highlights from that group of players, is how few games we got to see all 5 (Trey, Caris, Nik, GR3, Mitch) play together.
We'll always have Kansas and Syracuse (and Florida, VCU, SDSU, and an epic Championship game).
February 17th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^
No love for Tim Hardaway Jr? Cumong man.
February 17th, 2017 at 10:13 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 5:13 PM ^
The increased effort lately is making it much easier to root for this team. Thanks guys for saving the basketball season for me.
February 17th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^
I always liked that one at the NCAA game at the Palace (VCU?) where a guy ripped his jersey but he still threw one down.
February 17th, 2017 at 10:20 PM ^
Was that the one where Spike had a crazy bounce pass between two defenders?
February 18th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
That game led to an epic column by Brian afterward.
Let's do it again.
February 17th, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^
Is there a reason that's the old GIF format? I might be in the minority, but that format is so much cleaner to view. It also has the added benefit of letting the post load a hell of a lot more quickly.
February 17th, 2017 at 10:21 PM ^
Probably because they are old gifs.
February 17th, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 6:00 PM ^
from the post game presser? Really interesting that they considered our 0.6 ppp from the first game when evaluating the strategy because Happ missed a few really easy point blank shots that game and that's a small sample compared to what's worked and not worked for other teams. I'm shocked they don't adjust for that and just consider how easy it was to get certain shots and apply a players "standard" percentage for those shots, sort of like Brian's UFR catch chart that actually adjusts for difficulty. Just because you miss a couple easy looks doesn't mean the defense was good.
And Beilein said, Mo's defense was iffy, as it often is, so I'm really surprised they took so long to bring out the doubles, especially since Koenig was out so the leverage on Happ was even greater (meaning we were less likely to pay for doubling if there was a successful kickout). Although, thank Wisconsin for going away from the pick and roll and letting us double standard post-ups. It is painful that he pointed out that sometimes Happ blew by Mo so fast there was no time for a double!
February 18th, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 5:47 PM ^
i would rather have an 11 seed
February 17th, 2017 at 5:59 PM ^
If you're already at an 8 or 9 -- and people seem to think we are -- then there is plenty of time to move up to a 6. Let's just do that.
February 17th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
let's finish with four or five wins and grab a 6-seed.
February 17th, 2017 at 6:06 PM ^
I think a 5-2 finish (4-1, 1-1 in BTT) would put us right in that range. That would mean 2-1 against Minnesota/NW/Purdue plus no bad losses.
February 17th, 2017 at 6:22 PM ^
this team can get to the sweet 16, seeding would help, and if we're in the East regional at MSG...we seem to play very well there! Finish strong, boys.
February 18th, 2017 at 8:27 AM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 6:05 PM ^
I miss that team.
February 17th, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^
First Team all Big Ten.
February 17th, 2017 at 7:46 PM ^
I know it's not the dunk of all dunks, but the Spike left-handed bounce pass to a newly-disrobed Robinson for the dunk goes into my list of favorite Robinson dunking moments.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2013/3/23/4139354/michigan-v…
February 17th, 2017 at 9:42 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 10:28 PM ^
Agreed. So many fond memories of those teams. DEATH FROM ABOVE!!!!
February 17th, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^
Thanks for finding that - brings back good memories. A bonus was the story had a link to a great Mitch McGary moment, his screen in the VCU game:
February 18th, 2017 at 8:54 AM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 8:52 AM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 9:15 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^
at least, according to the transcript on UMHoops, he said "he can't learn in practice as much as he learns in games" ... which, ok, sure, but woof. If a guy is going to tank your team's chances that badly in such a short period of time, is the brief learning experience worth the cost to the rest of the team?
Hopefully he matches him up the the opposing backup bigs so as not to kill his confidence (he just looks scared out there) and to not hurt the team too much.
February 18th, 2017 at 4:26 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 10:42 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 8:31 AM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 10:27 AM ^
on whether I love the dunk or the pass that set it up. Both executed with such precision, if he waits .0001 second longer to send the pass it never gets through. I have decided that catching that pass while running top speed and getting up for the dunk is not something even the pro's can do with much regularity. So that dunk was the play of the play.
February 18th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
Albeit not the most electrifying dunk, I gotta go with the oop against Sparty.
On an entirely different note, I remain entirely befuddled by the team. There are moments of "guh," followed by moments of "wow." I was very, very impressed with this team's second-half performances on the road at Indy as well as against Whisky. For the first time all season, it appeared the staff made appropriate halftime adjustments, and the team executed them well over the course of the final 15-20 minutes.
I'm not sure what prevents the staff from making these changes more "on the fly" during the games, but hopefully it's a positive trend that carries through tomorrow too!
Go Blue!
February 18th, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^
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