Fee Fi Foe Film: UCF
Opposing QB drops ball for no reason, UCF turns it into a FG. Why did I watch this?
This week's FFFF came with an added degree of difficulty, as UCF's opener against FCS squad South Carolina State was broadcast only on ESPN3, a terrible video service that might as well not have fast-forward/rewind capabilities. As you can imagine, that makes breaking down film a bit tougher. (EDIT: AAAAAARRRRGH.)
Also making it tougher: this was a terrible football game. SCSU is not good at all, but it took a while for UCF to put them away because they couldn't finish drives; kicker Matthew Wright tied the school single-game record for made field goals (4) with over ten minutes left in the second quarter.
So, yes, this FFFF is a day late and condensed into one post. Brian literally ordered me to stop taking notes once I got through the first half. This non-conference schedule sure is something.
OFFENSE
Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread, spread, spread. Scott Frost's last job was as Oregon's offensive coordinator.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Mostly zone blocking; just about every run play involves a read/option of some sort.
Hurry it up or grind it out? UCF isn't quite up to Oregon speed yet, but they still move at a brisk pace. They caught SCSU unprepared on a couple quick snaps on third-and-short situations to get easy first downs.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Justin Holman averaged seven yards on his nine non-sack carries, including a 17-yard speed option keeper for a touchdown—while SCSU played it horribly, he showed good speed. Holman isn't a guy who's going to juke defenders in the open field; he had a promising scramble end abruptly when he was one-on-one with a safety in space, tried a move, and kinda just fell down. Michigan just has to keep him from going north-south. He gets a 7 because of his straight-line speed.
Holman had some trouble making the correct read in the read-option game, as well; he had a few gives that ran his RB right into a wall.
Dangerman: While he didn't do much in this game—and you'll see why when I get to the Hennechart—sophomore receiver Tre'Quan Smith is the reigning AAC offensive freshman of the year. He's a boom-or-bust type who only caught 54% of his targets in 2015 but averaged 14 YPC on the ones he hauled in. He's a pretty good representation of the offense as a whole right now: a good athlete who hasn't quite put it all together yet.
Zook Factor: Nonexistent. UCF was very aggressive in fourth-and-short situations, converting three-of-four in the game largely because of tempo.
HenneChart: So. I only charted the first half because, again, Brian lectured me about proper time management when I mentioned I had four-plus pages of notes on the first half. That was more than enough to get a read on Holman's passing ability. Reminder: this happened against FCS competition.
Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR | SCR | DSR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Carolina State | 0 | 3 (1) | 1 | 5** (2) | 2** | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 25% |
That might be the worst half I've seen from a passing perspective, especially given the level of competition. Holman didn't get a lot of help from his O-line, but he exascerbated that by holding onto the ball too long in the pocket, and on a couple occasions he sensed pressure that wasn't there and scrambled for minimal gains.
Holman had two very late throws underneath: one should've been intercepted by a linebacker undercutting a quick hitch in Delano Hill-like fashion, the other was a tipped ball two yards downfield that somehow wound up in the hands of a UCF receiver who wasn't the intended recipient. He consistently underthrew receivers on downfield routes. He missed back-to-back opportunities for touchdowns on a late first-half drive, first leaving a flag route short to allow a beaten defensive back to catch back up to the play, then winging this throw three yards wide of his open target despite zero pressure:
all screencaps today, since pulling video from ESPN3 is far more diffiicult than expected.
To top it off, Holman had a Hackenberg-esque performance on screens, turfing two of his three attempts in the half to turn potential big gains into nothing. A lot of his short throws either took receivers off of their feet or made them go to the ground.
OVERVIEW
I don't think I need to cover the passing game too much more given the last section. Holman really held them back, and that game doesn't appear to be an anomaly: he completed 51% of his passes for 5.1 YPA with 7 TDs and 14 INTs in 2015. UCF has some good athletes in the receiving corps—co-stater Tristan Payton is a former top-250 recruit and backup Dredrick Snelson was a UA All-American last year—but with even screen passes an adventure, they don't have many chances to show their skill, and Michigan's defensive backs will provide a much greater challenge.
I wasn't impressed with the offensive line, which had a tough time opening holes in the running game; after removing sacks, UCF averaged 4.2 YPC on 52 rushes, and that was with SCSU occasionally forgetting to check the QB on option plays. They didn't pass-block well, either, giving up three sacks and several more pressure. This was a designed rollout against a three-man rush on which the center somehow managed to get beat to the rollout side and the guard chipped, um, air.
That resulted in a sack, and it's tough to blame Holman for not expecting to face any pressure in that situation.
The guards were routinely overpowered in both run- and pass-blocking, which doesn't bode well for their ability to handle Michigan's defensive line. As a result, the running backs as a group didn't have many opportunities to hit the open field. Freshman Jawon Hamilton looked like the most dangerous of the committee; he's small and very quick to hit the hole.
At least the kicker is money.
DEFENSE
the increasingly rare pure 3-4.
Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
Base Set? A pure 3-4 front. UCF tends to stick to their base personnel. OLB Shaquem Griffin is a former defensive back who plays the Darron Lee walkout linebacker role when there's a slot receiver on the field.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Man or zone coverage? A lot of two-deep zone, especially on standard downs. They mixed in a fair amount of man, however, especially when blitzing, which...
Pressure: GERG or Greg? ...they did a lot, especially on obvious passing downs. It's tough to tell how much of this was because of the opponent; UCF had great success with zero blitzes (man coverage across the board, no deep safeties), but I'm no so sure running those is a good idea against Michigan. SCSU managed to get some deep shots off against those blitzes and couldn't connect; their QB wasn't good and the receivers aren't future NFL draft picks.
Dangerman: I was especially impressed with Shaquil Griffin, who had a second-half interception and made two first-half PBUs on deep shots when he was left on an island on zero blitzes. He's got excellent size and the plays he made on the ball will translate against any competition. I wouldn't be surprised if UCF tasked him with shadowing Jehu Chesson. (Side note: yes, the two Griffins are twins, and they've got a heck of a backstory; Shaquem, the spacebacker, was born with amniotic band syndrome, which cost him his left hand. Shaquil had some interest from bigger schools but only considered the ones that would take the twins as a package deal.)
Freshman DE Trysten Hill made his presence felt in the backfield often. He had a TFL and would've made a bigger mark on the box score if he had more help up front; he moves very well for a 295-pounder. He's also the only starter in the front seven who's appropriately sized for his position.
OVERVIEW
I have to throw up my hands for the most part here since SCSU was abject on offense. Both cornerbacks, especially Griffin, looked like they could provide a viable test for Michigan's receivers; the other corner, DJ Killings, didn't get tested much in coverage but had an authoritative stop on a receiver screen—he had four TFLs last year, so that appears to be a strength in his game, and one he'll need if he's matched up on Amara Darboh.
The other Griffin, Shaquem, may only have one hand, but that didn't stop him from getting good pressure on edge rushes. While he'll have trouble holding up against the run, he'll test M's tackles with speed rushes, and he's got a decent size/athleticism combination for holding up in coverage against the TEs.
The front seven features undersized players who can be disruptive—the nose tackle had a couple Mike Martin moments—but they're so undersized that I have a hard time seeing them replicating their success against the run when they face Michigan. One of the starting inside linebackers weighs 217 pounds; I kept thinking he was a very aggressive safety.
While SCSU's QB was often incapable of taking advantage, there were usually some big windows to throw into when UCF dropped into a cover 2, even though they tended to play soft at the line. There are a few individual players here who could provide some trouble; on the whole, though, I don't see Michigan having much trouble moving the ball against this squad.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^
I was 4 minutes into watching this game on YouTube, thank you for saving me. Your sacrifice is appreciated.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^
September 8th, 2016 at 1:53 PM ^
I hope they both go by Shaq.
September 9th, 2016 at 10:08 AM ^
SHAQ ATTACK! SHAQ FU! HACK-A-SHAQ!
September 8th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^
What were we talking about again?
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September 8th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^
Don't forget good ol' Tommy Rees
September 8th, 2016 at 2:22 PM ^
Will Hagerup approves of this message...
September 8th, 2016 at 5:55 PM ^
Dalvin Cook has this year's edition covered.
September 8th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^
They will get the chance to practice Don Brown's offense against legit spread concepts, yet lesser athletes.
A spread rehearsal before OSU is a very good thing.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:05 PM ^
So I put this game on my tablet to get a bead on the Knights, and could not make it through the second quarter, when it was 9-0, and I consider myself a college football lunatic. Seeing Ace struggle through it and Brian telling him to not bother with the second half makes me feel better.
I do think C Florida will be more potent than Hawaii on offense, and I can see a guy getting loose once or twice for a score, but not expecting this to be a game by any means. I do think that by November the Knights will be much improved by then.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
If we have learned how to play against a spread team, our talent advantage should allow us to crush their offense. That will be a real feel good moment early in the season, one tempered by the knowledge these guys apparently can't pass the ball.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^
It'll be a nice opportunity for the new DEs to practice the finer points of defending a zone read. Gary, in particular, blew one pretty spectacularly last week.
September 8th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^
Though, if I remember correctly, he did end up catching up to the runner from behind and making the tackle on that one.
September 8th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
I agree with this and similar sentiments. Great points. This is a valuable exercise for Brown's defense against athletes who shouldn't be a threat to surprise us. Even if there are some problems it gives Brown time to fix things.
My hope is that the Brown defense, combined with the athletes on the roster, is the ideal defense to defend both power offenses and a variety of spreads. Two different spreads are on the menu in the next two weeks; Wisconsin will test the power.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:09 PM ^
I think I need to revise that upward.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:20 PM ^
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September 8th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^
September 8th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^
September 8th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^
September 8th, 2016 at 1:27 PM ^
This.
I'd give Wormley the NFL draft shield, but Glasgow is the engine making our defensive line/linebackers most effective.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:34 PM ^
...in the chart, but his criteria for that is a player who's projected to be a potential first-round pick or very close to it. Wormley fits that right now; Glasgow is every bit as good, if not better, as a college player, but at least right now his draft stock isn't as high.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^
is the D diagram up to date? Do you know something about Jourdan Lewis resting for another game?
September 8th, 2016 at 3:36 PM ^
Don't know, but it's worth noting that Ace had Speight as the QB in the Hawai'i preview. Like other position battles it was seen as a guess and didn't draw any comments (IIRC), but probably he knew. Just couldn't say.
September 8th, 2016 at 5:08 PM ^
Didn't that preview come after UMBig11 told us that Speight had been handed the keys?
September 8th, 2016 at 6:31 PM ^
I don't know -- I missed that
September 8th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^
So, by how many points does the Michigan defense outscore the opposing team this week?
September 8th, 2016 at 1:45 PM ^
3 pick-sixes and a safety
September 8th, 2016 at 1:55 PM ^
Three pick-sixes is ridiculous. At least one of our three defensive touchdowns will be a fumble returned for a TD, obviously.
September 8th, 2016 at 2:15 PM ^
It's possible the defence out-scores the offense this week.
September 8th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^
Assuming either the defense or the punt return team scores on each of UCF's possessions (reasonable assumption), then the offense should get only one possession. That's if we don't onside kick at all, of course.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^
I think its good they run a spread purely from its a good thing to practice against spread teams thing, so at least there is that
September 8th, 2016 at 1:21 PM ^
So they are much worse than Hawaii, is what you're telling me?
September 8th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^
...to compare. Hawaii at least played a Power 5 team their first week. I think UCF has better athletes and a slightly higher talent level, but they're changing systems on both sides of the ball and it showed even against a FCS squad.
I will say I expect a similar outcome.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:22 PM ^
I can still remember the Oregon game in 2007 AFTER the horror where we got freaking destroyed by the spread. I sat there thinking "we're not getting any pressure on the QB and we're also not covering anybody. Where the fuck do our defenders GO during a play?"
I am very much looking forward to seeing how a talented defense, coached by someone who clearly knows what they are doing, handles the spread. This should be fun.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:59 PM ^
To be fair, that 2007 Oregon squad was truly great until Dixon got hurt. That was far and away the worst beatdown Michigan has experienced since I've started following (and maybe ever?).
September 8th, 2016 at 3:02 PM ^
September 8th, 2016 at 3:50 PM ^
OC was Chip Kelly, in his first year there. Kelly hired Frost in 2009 as WR coach when he became Head Coach, and Frost became OC in 2013 when Kelly left for the NFL.
So yeah, it's the same offense.
September 8th, 2016 at 6:49 PM ^
Not a stretch to cut that Michigan team a bit more slack wrt that game, with hindsight. I knew it was Kelly's offense, but didn't realize it was his first year there. So Michigan kind of in the wrong place at the wrong time, historically. Not easy to prepare for that.
Also not a stretch to argue that game led to the Rodriguez hire.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:29 PM ^
September 8th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^
Holman didn't get a lot of help from his O-line, but he exascerbated that by holding onto the ball too long in the pocket
That doesn't bode well. I'm guessing he transitions to this sooner rather than later:
he sensed pressure that wasn't there and scrambled for minimal gains curls up in the fetal position
September 8th, 2016 at 1:41 PM ^
I assume this is a Spread-to-run offense, given your analysis and Frost's work as Oregon's OC. Is that right?
Moving forward, it might be helpful to include that distinction for spread teams when you're doing these write-ups (which are great, by the way).
September 8th, 2016 at 2:25 PM ^
Sorry, sometimes we forget that stuff like "Oregon Spread" isn't a term that everyone immediately can identify.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^
I cannot get over the fact that their Center is 5'11" 288 lbs.
And is a Senior starter no less.
Why, oh why did I not listen to coaches who asked me to switch to center?
September 8th, 2016 at 1:53 PM ^
If Onwenu ends up playing NT, he'll have close to 100 pounds on him. That's probably not going to go well for them.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^
Seth, I think we can all agree that Glasgow deserves a shield behind his star.
Make it happen, big fella.
September 8th, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^
But, maybe I'm still trying to recover from a decade of being reduced to the fetal position as a result of losses to teams who should have been cupcakes, or barely getting by the same.
I so want to believe that we're going to hang 100 on Scott Fucking Frost, but I know I'll end up holding my breath for the duration on Saturday.
September 8th, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^
A first year coach introducing a complicated spread offense while playing on the road, in front of 100,000 fans, against a much faster and more physical team? You can breathe easy, my friend. This one will be over by halftime.
September 8th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^
Who doesn't need a little sunshine up their skirt every now and again? Thanks!
September 8th, 2016 at 1:59 PM ^
I am very curious to see how this defense performs vs a spread. That is why I put my prediction at 42-14. I think UCF will see the end zone a few times. If not against our #1's they might get a few garbage TD's against our 3's and 4's.
September 8th, 2016 at 2:07 PM ^
Glad we get to practice playing D against an up-tempo team that sucks before playing a good team that can go up tempo.
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