Lorenz Crystal Ballz Delance to UM
In yesterday's "Davis to Maryland" thread I had mentioned that the absence of Lorenz and Wiltfong - guys who are usually in on every highly pursued UM recruit - in the crystal ballz section for 247 was a bit head scratching. Well, we finally saw movement on that end as Lorenz has finally broken for the good guys. A few hours earlier some twerp who follows OSU put him in for Texas but I choose to believe in Lorenz.
So that gives us 2 of the big 3 - Acian (Brace?) ... the combined ball of Brian and Ace, and Lorenz... one more to go.
($$) http://michigan.247sports.com/Bolt/Michigan-Crystal-Ball-Jean-Delance-4…
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December 29th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
This is good news, correct?
Go Blue!
December 29th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^
Only if you want Jean Delance to be a Wolverine...
December 29th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^
I guess I can cross this off my Christmas wish list. Still have Gary, Crawford, Long, and Jackson on there.
December 29th, 2015 at 1:47 PM ^
In some cases they are, in others, not so much. There is no confidence level: the ballz are a gimmick and prone to echo chamber effects of guys reading each others posts. Sometimes people are just making more of guesses than probably should be made.
People who get first-hand info (via talking with coaches or recruits) like Webb and Lorenz are typically good sources, but most of the people putting in predictions aren't doing that.
In other words, it's no "gut feel".
For guys who don't talk much to the media, these things should be taken with a big grain of salt.
December 29th, 2015 at 1:53 PM ^
I think that Crystal Balls shouldn't be allowed to change. If you pick TEAM A then you have locked in your vote. That way, the race to forcast it first is balanced against not wanting to be wrong. It gives a better indication of where a recruitment is.
December 29th, 2015 at 1:58 PM ^
The problem with that is that there would be no indication very much before an announcement. If prognosticators can't change their picks, then they're going to wait until a day or a couple hours before the announcement (if it's a planned announcement). So you go from having percentages on which to base your opinions throughout a recruitment, to a point where you have no clue until 24 hours beforehand.
December 29th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
Michael Jordan from Michigan. Why did he commit to OSU? Was he pursued by U of M? Didn't have the grades? I didn't tollow it much but I didn't hear much about his recruitment.
December 29th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^
Michigan offered him early and pursued pretty hard. I haven't heard anything about grade issues, and I don't think that's a risk OSU would take, either, since they have their pick of athletes (in many ways). There's not much of a reason to pursue a good player/academic risk when you can get a good player/academic non-risk.
Jordan is pretty quiet on the recruiting trail, so he never said very much. He just seemed to be enamored with Ohio State and their trend of winning lots of games. He ended things pretty early.
December 29th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^
Because things change on the recruit's end and so on the 'insider''s end you'd get a lot of waiting around until close to signing day so that they can look right more often.
In other words, your accuracy gains would be offset by less information and less entertainment - which is kind of the point of the whole gimmick anyway (clicks).
December 29th, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
Just noticed that Texas doesn't have a single top 20 recruit from Texas.
Has that ever happened before?
Wow...poor Charlie Strong.
December 29th, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^
Well don't jinx it
December 29th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^
It's going to be hard to outrecruit Oklahoma, LSU, TCU, Baylor and A&M. Kids have options when it comes to playing big-time football close to home.
December 29th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
Charlie Strong has also lost 7 games in both seasons at Texas.
December 29th, 2015 at 8:16 PM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^
and now I'll just leave this here...
December 29th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^
Hope he's right. Delance is considered a clear 5 star by the staff and they want him as much as Gary.
December 29th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 1:40 PM ^
Did the staff really say this? I thought they aren't allowed to talk about recruits until they sign.
December 29th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^
So you'll not find that quote somewhere in the media. They do obviously speak about them though.
December 29th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
How do crystal ballz differ from crystal balls? Are they made of alternate, uglier glass?
December 29th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
Therefore
Ballz>Balls
December 29th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
Doesn't each squad in these type of all star events have maybe 2 running backs? Pretty hard to bench anyone even if you wanted to and I dont think "discipline" is the job of any coach at these events, its supposed to be a place to show off.
December 29th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
off.
Except in this case, defense is actually played: Indeed, one can even show off by playing defense.
December 29th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
No worries bro.... he is back in consideration for the Heisman next year; just needs to add 15 lbs btw now and next Sept.
I always did like his tape more than Kingston Davis' - well at least in the past 15 minutes.
Two solid plays in a row for Walker. Good feet. Doesn't look 210 pounds though. Looks really light.
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) December 29, 2015
December 29th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 1:56 PM ^
I sure wish we all had the problem of needing to put on weight.
December 29th, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
Let the "I always liked Kingston Davis' tape more than Kareem Walker's...and I was telling everyone that 3 years ago!" revisionism begin!
Maybe the real Mike Hart curse was towards our own running backs....
December 29th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
You mean he fumbled when he got hit in the backfield by two D linemen during the non-contact 11-on-11? Oh well.
December 29th, 2015 at 12:55 PM ^
always have to be about balls? Crystal balls, deep balls, long balls, ball carrying, etc, etc.
/sausage fest
December 29th, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
Because chicks dig the long ball.
December 29th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
What about Big Balls....
December 29th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 1:18 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
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December 29th, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^
Lorenz is usually pretty good on Michigan targets. He doesn't use it unless he has knowledge that a team is a heavy favorite. Wiltfong is also pretty good and more plugged in nationally. The Ace/Brian account is solid and you can consider to be a combination of Scout, Rivals, and 247 info, along with occasional inside info.
Outside of those 3 I don't pay much attention to specific guys but the general trend or percentage to a certian team is a good indicator. But sometimes they are way off like with Delance, where most of the crystal balls are old but no one has had a great feel if he favors Michigan or LSU so they haven't put in thei votes.
December 29th, 2015 at 1:46 PM ^
The big misses on Crystal Ball predictions seem to come when a kid commits early in the process.
December 29th, 2015 at 1:56 PM ^
Farnn pretty much covers it.
I might have started the whole "ballz" nomenclature a few years ago here just because it was a bit tongue in cheek . I do agree there is a lot of echo chamber stuff and some people who know little to nothing about a specific school tend to piggyback what "school experts" do and often at the last minute.
The "dialed in guys" are often 80%+ success which is quite good considering these are 17 year olds who often make changes on a dime - see Mike Weber. Then certain guys are dialed in to certain schools etc so you just sort of triangulate. You can also reverse engineer a bit if a guy is dialed in for the recruits other "top 3" for example so with Bush Jr the version of Lorenz there (Brewster- whose dad is on the staff) thought he was going to FSU until 12 hrs before the announcement. He is a good Noles informant so once he flipped Bush to UM you had to feel great. Now was he "useless" because he had Bush to FSU for weeks? Not at all - the FSU insiders and UM insiders both felt very good about that recruitment.
tl;dr not all ballz are alike - you really have to look at who it is and their connection to the school or for guys who are more regional/national like a Wiltfong.
December 29th, 2015 at 2:30 PM ^
not all recruits are alike. Some don't share much.
I'll never forget how damn sure every insider was about Ronald "Rojo" Johnson to Michigan but nobody and I mean NOBODY ever got a quote from the kid directly. In the abscense of info you had falt-out guesses (based on location I guess) turning into "things I'm hearing" turn into 'momentum' turn into basically a 'lock'. It was echo chamber all the way and nobody was 'triangulating' very well on that one. It wasn't a Weber situation where there was a change of heart there was just a kid who didn't talk to anyone.
Sometimes we just have to admit we don't know until the kid says something, but the recruiting insiders can be reluctant to say that and/or get asked over and over and over again to say something about it and then eventually submit a guess which gets blown out of proportion.
Point is: yeah, context matters.
December 30th, 2015 at 12:11 AM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 1:50 PM ^
December 29th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^
Delance is one of the four guys I want to finish out the class. I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll give us reason for a Hello post in a few days.