Hoops Hello: Ibi Watson
John Beilein landed his third commit of the 2016 class this afternoon when Pickerington (OH) Central swingman Ibi Watson tweeted his decision to join the program. Watson blew up during the latest evaluation period, earning offers from Indiana and Michigan in the process. He joins big men Jon Teske and Austin Davis in the class.
GURU RATINGS
Scout | Rivals | ESPN | 247 | 247 Comp |
3* SF | NR SG | 3*, 79, #41 SG |
3*, 87, #41 SG, #201 Ovr |
3*, #39 SG, #213 Ovr |
Watson is a low three-star or unranked on the recruiting services, though we'll see if that holds up when the rankings are updated to reflect his spring and summer performances; as you'll see, he's been very good of late.
Rivals, ESPN, and 247 all list Watson at 6'4", 180 pounds. Scout has him an inch taller and ten pounds lighter. He's got the look of a two-guard who could play the three if he fills out.
SCOUTING
There was pretty much nothing out there on Watson until the spring. The only report I can find on him from before the most recent evaluation period is at Land Grant Holy Land. They caught him last spring's Spiece Run-n-Slam, where he made a sigificant impact off the bench:
On a team full of superstars, Athens sophomore wing guard Ibi Watson can fly under the radar with King James Shooting Stars. After an impressive showing all weekend long in Fort Wayne, Watson should not be overlooked much longer. Averaging 7.8 points per game for the tournament (second on the team), all while coming off the bench, Watson showed an increased ability to finish strongly at the rim, while also continuing to be a confident perimeter shooter.
One thing about Watson's game that I was consistently impressed with was the 6-foot-4 guard's increased athleticism and decision-making. King James' highest IQ wing, Watson rarely turned the ball over, while refusing to settle for low-percentage shots. Helping lead the King James rally late in Sunday's championship game, Watson made several key plays on both ends of the floor, showing the confidence that King James' coaching staff has in the rising-junior combo-guard.
This May, Watson led the All Ohio Red AAU squad to a tournament win in the All-Ohio Nike Super 16 with a 41-point onslaught in the title game. As he garnered increased recruiting attention, he stood out at Michigan's College Practice Camp, per Dylan from UMHoops:
The Pickerington native had a great camp. He’s a smooth and explosive wing who plays for All-Ohio Red and was part of the reason that John Beilein gave out a shout out to the Columbus players in attendance. Watson can hit the triple or attack off the bounce and played well throughout the camp.
Watson earned MVP honors at the Best of the South tournament in June over his more heralded teammates, per HoopSeen:
Ibi Watson, 2016 SG, All-Ohio Red: From Wednesday to Sunday, Watson may have been the most consistent player throughout the entire tournament, ending in him being awarded the 17U MVP. The 6-foot-6 shooting guard was a threat from behind the three-point line with his shooting ability, but he showed spurts of his sneaky athleticism with some plays at the rim. He consistently hit shots and made smart plays for his teammates. Watson’s MVP award speaks volumes about his play over the course of the week, as he plays alongside Michigan State commit Nick Ward and Dayton commit Trey Landers.
He was also All-Ohio Red's top performer at the NY2LA Sports Summer Jam, where they took home the tournament title:
Watson lifted All-Ohio Red to the 17U finals with an 18-point performance during a semifinal win over Playground Elite. Watson was also instrumental in the title game victory over Boise Hoop Dreams. Scoring 12 points, Watson also turned the game with a couple of back-breaking baskets to end scoring droughts and put a stop to two large Boise Hoop Dream runs. Watson was also active defensively, blocking and altering shots and getting on the glass.
As the EYBL season got under way recently, Watson continued to pick up steam while playing in front of coaches from Michigan and Indiana, per Rivals' Sean Williams ($):
Wisconsin Playground Elite controlled much of the first half and held a 28-22 lead at the half, but that's when All-Ohio Red came storming back with the help of shooting guard Ibi Watson, who dropped 17 points as his team lit up the second half and secured a 69-58 victory.
The 6-foot-4 Watson showed off his full arsenal of talents by dropping three 3-point field goals, driving to the basket and creating, being active on the glass, and using his length to be a disruptor on defense by blocking a couple of shots and forcing a couple of steals.
Watson is a shooter first and foremost, but he's shown recently that he can contribute in several facets of the game.
OFFERS
Watson holds offers from Akron, Dayton, Indiana, UMass, Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo, and Western Kentucky. Before anyone complains about that offer sheet, consider last under-the-radar Pickerington Central prospect to make his way to Michigan: Caris LeVert.
VIDEO
Junior highlights are at the top of the post. Here's that 41-point title game performance:
And here's a single-game reel from a matchup against four-star wing Seth Towns:
Dude can shoot.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
With Caris LeVert gone after this upcoming season, Watson is in line to see some early playing time if he's ready; when he gets to campus in 2016, Zak Irvin, Aubrey Dawkins, and MAAR will be the only true wings on the squad, and that's assuming Irvin is back. If Watson doesn't crack the rotation as a freshman, he should as a sophomore after Irvin graduates.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
Michigan is technically full for the 2016 class but they're not finished recruiting. Point guard has been a priority from the beginning, with four-star in-stater Cassius Winston—whose recruitment should come down to M and MSU—as the top target on the board. If attrition doesn't create room for a point guard, there's a possibility Austin Davis reclassifies to the 2017 class.
Is this the 3 star that'll have a better career than Jaylen Brown?
Nope. Battle was at least a 4 star.
Any sense of which five star kid will eventually commit to MSU because of this?
Doesn't matter as long as we keep beating 'em.
We've lost the last three to them, all by double digits (one in OT, granted). Even by the most charitable timeframe (since 2011), we're 6-5 against them, with several of our wins by a whisker and several of theirs by blowout. Where does this idea that we own them come from?
We were 6-2 prior to the 3 game losing streak with 2 of the losses happening because of a depleted team.
And in case you want to mention that 2014 Michigan State wasn't fully healthy, I'll remind you that we didn't have Mitch McGary for the conference regular season games or conference tournament game in 2014.
Watson looks solid. We will see where things wrap with his ***/**** but I like what I see, particularly since we don't need him to run the offense through him on the first day.
The kid is a shooter, but honestly I can't say I love his shooting form. His stance is a bit wide and his release point looks a bit low. But he appears to be very accurate so who am I to argue. I imagine his form will tighten up a bit as he fills out with college weight training and conditioning.
What I really like is his attitude, which hopefully will translate to the college game. Obviously he isn't afraid of contact, whether on D or when driving. And he has a couple nice step-backs in that 41 pt game, I particularly like the shot at 0:50-0:53 seconds when he catches a pass, takes a dribble to get outside the arc, and then knocks down a 3. Baller!
His release point is VERY low. Not sure that will be correctable.
I would definitely want to have someone rebuild his shot from the ground up for the NBA, and maybe that is exactly what will happen under Beilein. But at 6-4 I think he could be a very productive college player simply by adjusting his current shooting form.
Rewatched some of the tape and it looks to me like his catch and shoot footwork also needs a bit of work (see 0:48). Again, this seems like a matter of upper body strength and coaching. If he can develop a faster release as a senior in HS or freshman in college he will be really nasty.
Steph Curry has a similiar release point (but without the chicken wing)
Seth Curry has a higher than average release point.
The thing I like even less about Watson's shot is how slow it is, not how low it is. Not sure how true this is, but I've also heard that Beilein doesn't do much with a player's shot once they get to college except work on footwork and balance.
Most NBA players have an extremely high release points. Take for example Lebron James and Dell Curry, they place the ball above their heads then start their release motion. Even Ray Allen places the ball above the head before the release motion.
Steph Curry on the other hand starts his release from about the chest level and eyes his shot with the ball still at face level. He developed this as young kid shooting threes from waist level. He raised his starting point, but compared to most NBA and College players, it is still low. Now granted he releases the ball high but the motion starts low. Same thing here with Watson.
Your comment comparing Steph Curry and Ibi Watson's release points intrigued me. I found some stock graphic of Curry's jumper and did some quick photoshop to make a similar sequence for Watson's shot (taken from 2 minutes 41 seconds in the first Youtube video from Ace's post).
So looking at these images your point is well taken, the actual vertical point of release (or where we might extrapolate it to be based on these images) is pretty close between Steph and Watson. That said, there are a lot of wasted movements in Watson's shot. Also, when Watson cocks the ball to shoot it is noticably farther out in front of his body than in Steph's shot. I would guess that this is vestigial from a period in his youth when he really needed to launch the ball at the hoop. But if Watson is going to be a college-level shooter (and that is certainly how I imagine him getting on the court during his freshman year) then his whole shooting motion will need to be elevated higher and become much more compact. Hopefully this will help him develop a faster trigger (also footwork!). As his it stands, college athletes who are able to rotate faster on D will have lots of time to get in his face while he is shooting.
I'll echo the points made elsewhere on this thread and on the MGoBoard: Watson is clearly talented but he is an unpolished shooter—not surprising for a high school junior. Thankfully he has lots of time to develop. Curry is actually a great point of comparison since he famously remade his jumper during high school.
Pretty Neat that you were able to put this together so quickly.
I swear I have a real job
Edit: I mirrored the images of Warson to more easily compare to the Steph images. Warson is not actually left handed.Wow, dude. Quality post!
His release is not that low, you are way overstating it. Almost no high schoolers have had their shot examined and refined by a shooting coach; Beilein will have no problem turning this kid into a lights out shooter.
I agree his 3 point shot release is far too low. But it is so obvious that Beilein and staff must be confident that its a fixable thing. And they have some history of doing so.
Looks real young. He'll have another year to grow stroner and longer and maybe another star next to his name.
Welcome aboard, but I'm not fired up about the trajectory of the hoops team any more. You can't expect that Beilein will take 3 stars and turn them into national player of the year, Trey Burke types with regularity. Disappointing that the recent success we had has not translated into any major recruiting bump. We used to have a higher recruiting ceiling. Let's hope Beilein finds a way.
Welcome aboard, but I'm not fired up about the trajectory of the hoops team any more. You can't expect that Beilein will take 3 stars and turn them into national player of the year, Trey Burke types with regularity. Disappointing that the recent success we had has not translated into any major recruiting bump. We used to have a higher recruiting ceiling. Let's hope Beilein finds a way.
A lot of people expected that after 2 years of prominence we would recruit at a 5 star level. I had hoped so as well. Unfortunately, the reality is that Michigan is just not at a class in which it can get every (or apparently any) 5 star player. Beilein is not like Calipari or Krzyzewski. Nor is he like Bo Ryan. He's somewhere in the middle in that our recruits are likely going to be high 3 stars/low 4 stars with some high 4 stars/low 5 stars thrown in. These players are likely going to be there for multiple years and we will have bad years once in a while when we're rebuilding. That's just how its going to be.
This guy doesnt look like hes going to be a 3* for long.
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Bro. Mouzone please believe after his performance this summer, a drastic rise is coming.
"This is the next Michigan legend".
When a player that we feel is a lock or a player decommits, I look at that as a huge missed opportunity for that player. (Name some and their fortunes).
This miss would be both academically and athletically. This guy looks special.
Love that name.
like dang
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1.Major caveat. I have only watched highlight tapes and what I can find on the internet. Data limitations always cloud judgments.
2. Major caveat two. JB's track record. Brilliant assistant coaches, too. See #1. They don't have data limitations.
3. Major caveat three. I was slightly skeptical of MAAR and Dawkins last year. Not justified. However, I loved Burke's HS tape and Stauskus and Caris coming in (but I had seen a lot more of them). I was concerend about the Mitch McGary/Nerlens Nowel matchup. I was wrong to have this concern and it took Sam Webb (more data) to talk me out of it. I liked Larry Nance Junior a lot more than Max, and didn't get that one. Still don't. So my track record is, more or less, checkered. OTOH, and I may still be wrong, I was a bit bummed by the Chatman recruitment. Saw him live and didn't think he was anything but a major project. I wouldn't have had him in a top 200 and couldn't believe the top 30 assessment. I still think that he is a project. But, I hope I am wrong and hope I eat crow on that one. Love that crow.
4. Above things admitted, I have a hard time seeing Ibi Watson, though there are positives and much can be fixed, perhaps. On the plus side he seems a good defender or a pretty instinctive one, at least, on limited data. Since he isn't very strong, I could see him making big strides as a defender/rebounder. I have read he is careful with the ball, smart, and doesn't force bad shots. On the tapes he seems to keep his head up and is aware of open guys on the court. All good. Looks like he might be a willing rebounder, at least. Seems like a team guy, from all accounts.
What is bothersome to me is that he has no left hand around the basket. At least as far as I can see on the several plus videos I have watched. That's a hard skill to gain late in the game. And while, in highlight tapes, his shot goes in, his left arm flies out of the shot, he tends to shoot to jump versus jump to shoot, and his shot is released pretty low. I saw one commentator say his release is slow, but i didn't really see that but, I will look again. Another says his "stance is too wide" but I actually think that's OK, it tends to minimize right/left error, at least IMO. There have been a lot of really fine shooters with funky shots, some with a lot worse form than Watson, but his stats (about 33% from 3 I saw some place and in the low 40s overall), assuming these have any meaning or viable context, aren't all that great. If the numbers are somewhat better well, less concerned, because some players with weird shots manage to continue to figure out how to make it work.
5. We were, apparently, under the gun with Watson, that they had to take him or lose him to Indiana. I don't see much difference between Watson and Cumberland (sp?) but from what I saw I might lean to Watson. However, Kevin Huerter, Amir Coffey, maybe the Bailey kid, seemed better propects to me, though perhpas these were all longshots. I assume Miles Bridges has always been a pipe dream. Bridges is there with Langford, to my eye, and, of course, Tyus Battle. I would rank them, Langford, Bridges, Battle, but close.
6. Hopefully, Tejon Lucas will not committ before Cassisus Winston. Limited data, but i like Lucas a sliver more than Winston (tape only) at least as an offensive player. Winston, however, is bigger, stronger, and probably a better defender. If we lose Winston and Lucas it is primal scream time for me---since we can get Lucas now (pretty sure) though there are other legit. PGs out there with interest in UM. But, no doubt, Winston is worth going to the mat for.
7. My fear is that we jumped on Watson too soon (passing on Huerter, Coffey, Bailey and, pipe dream, Bridges) and will let the Winston string play out too long, losing (maybe) a near alternative.
8. My paranoia is manifest after the Battle deal. I have conspiracy theories weightier than the Stevie Wonder deal.
Craig
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...me too.
I actually think Watson is a decent prospect, but I totally agree the timing is off. I think they could have gotten a similar level of prospect later, with Huerter, Bailey, etc. This does feel kind of rushed, but on the other hand, it's not like they weren't checking out those other prospects. Perhaps, Beilein felt like he was a take regardless.
I also think Winston is one of the more overrated players I've ever seen. I don't think he's bad, I just can't believe he is a top 50 player on all the ranking sites. His shot is all kinds of broken, his athleticism is really limited, and I don't think a lot of what he does will work again college defenders. I like a couple of the other PGs Michigan has been looking at better. I really like CJ Walker's game, but obviously that ship has sailed. I like Lucas and Bruce Brown, but what do I know.
....I see some of the same things in Winston. But the kid just seems so productive and outplays (see Thornton) guys who I think might be better. Winston just always seems to get it done. I like CJ Walker, also, but lean to Winston but remain most intrigued by Lucas.
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