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Wondering If The Fire Is Still Hot
11/21/2020 – Michigan 48, Rutgers 42 (3OT) – 2-3 Big Ten
If there's one thing I've tried to incorporate into my brain over the course of writing about sports it's this: performances are not consistent.
Over a relatively long span of time a player can be expected to do X. Over shorter spans a player can wildly exceed or underperform his true level. And "shorter spans" can be astoundingly long, from the perspective of someone drawing meaning from a single game. The best example I can throw at you now is Strauss Mann, who has ~120 games of .930+ goaltending bookending a brief season-long disaster:
Mann also had 14 USHL playoff games at .932 for people double-checking the ~120
In basketball, Tim Hardaway Jr is a career 35% three-point shooter in the NBA. At Michigan his performance there went 37%, 28%, 37%. Duncan Robinson has a solid case for the best shooter on the planet in the Year of Our Lord 2020; through the first 10 games of his senior season he was shooting 30% from deep and everyone was writing him off.
You want curling examples? I've got curling examples. USA Curling more or less explicitly told John Shuster to die in a fire after finishing 10th and 11th out of 12 in consecutive Olympics. Shuster cobbled together a crew of ne'er do wells, won the national championship repeatedly, and then won an Olympic gold medal.
Football? Let me google some details about this obscure sport. [typing sounds] …interesting… [more typing] …it's like rugby except discrete… well. Let me show you some idiot talking about a Foot-Ball Quarter-Back replacing the starter mid-game during a year of worry and discontent:
Basic stuff... that felt like a revelation. O'Korn's quick, open throws stood in contrast to Speight's struggles to identify open guys the last few games. Twice Michigan picked up catch-and-run conversions on outs that had to be thrown with accuracy and timing to provide YAC. They were. Ditto Gentry's mesh touchdown, which O'Korn knew was open before he even turned around off of play action. This is basic quarterbacking being executed very well. That's huge progress for O'Korn, and apparently the offense.
And then he got dialed in. I gave him 6 DOs in this game, which is a lot on just 26 throws, and I shorted him one on his scramble escapades. The others were no-doubters. This throw is not only between two guys in a tight window but leads Gentry upfield and cannot be better placed for a catch and run:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wd7-D0sd9bE&feature=emb_logo
One 15 yard penalty later, Michigan faces first and 25 with Purdue breathing down O'Korn's neck. O'Korn stands in, takes the hit, and gives Gentry a chance to make a play.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moYO8YubAYw&feature=emb_logo
1) Yes, throw it at the Ent. 2) He even puts this outside of the defender. Given the circumstances this about as good as it gets.
O'Korn leapt off the bench in relief of an injured Wilton Speight, completing 18/26 passes for 10.4 YPA, was the future of the position for one (1) week, and was thereafter a small child lost in a department store. Bet you wish I stuck with the curling examples.
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Now we must consider Cade McNamara. McNamara came off the bench, sparked the offense, and led Michigan to a win. He was calm; he sprinkled in some tough throws in the face of pressure. He looked pretty good. I think we should hold off on expectations that he will continue being pretty good until we see some more. Let's play Pick The Box Score Against Rutgers:
- 31/43, 319 yards, 7.4 YPA
- 27/36, 260 yards, 7.2 YPA
Door #2 is McNamara. Door #1? Rocky Lombardi. (Lombardi did have two interceptions. One was his WR running the wrong route; the second was Lombardi forcing the ball in desperation mode.) Rutgers may not be very good at football.
To be explicitly clear, this is also what I was advocating after the Minnesota game:
Now tell me about Milton. Be EFFUSIVE.
First I want to pump the brakes
I TOLD YOU TO BE EFFUSIVE
This was a beautiful way to break in a new quarterback against a team that didn't really know what was coming and the number of different things Michigan asked him to do was relatively limited. We don't know how good he is at throws that aren't screens and wide open slants/posts across the middle.
Post snap reads were minimal. These days it's extremely hard to tell if something is a genuine RPO or a called pass …there weren't even many opportunities to puzzle about it. They kept it simple.
Michigan never put in any reads, presumably because Milton wouldn't execute them consistently. Maybe McNamara can. Maybe he's the answer. But expecting QB3 to suddenly blow up when the rest of the program is in the shape it's in… well, it's optimistic. We literally just did this. Water status: holding.
[After THE JUMP: we soldier on]
AWARDS
Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week
you're the man now, dog
#1 Cade McNamara. See above. Did lead Michigan to all of their points, give or take some special teams adventures.
#2 Hassan Haskins. Grabbed hold of the RB1 job in the second half by grinding out tough yards in unlikely situations. 25 carries(!) seems like an impossible number given the way things have gone thus far this season. 4.4 YPC against Rutgers doesn't sound amazing. Unfortunately, it kind of is.
#3 Giles Jackson. The foremost amongst Michigan receivers because he did not fumble one, as Johnson did, and also chipped in a kick return touchdown. Had one tough back shoulder opportunity he did not bring in but otherwise very good. Needs more touches.
Honorable mentions: I'm dubious anyone on defense qualifies. Johnson does despite the fumble thanks to the sell-job he put on the safety for the wide-open TD; Bell caught a few passes and had some critical blocks that were either on screens or not technically OPI.
KFaTAotW Standings. (Scoring: 8 points for first, 5 for second, 3 for third, 1 for HM. Points from ties adjudicated by an ankylosaur named Sharon.)
14: Joe Milton (#1 Minnesota, #3 MSU, #3 Indiana)
11: Giles Jackson(#1 MSU, #3 Rutgers)
10: Dax Hill (#2 MSU, #2 Indiana), Ronnie Bell (HM Minnesota, #1 Indiana, HM Rutgers)
8: Cade McNamara(#1 Rutgers)
7: Hassan Haskins(HM Minnesota, HM MSU, #2 Rutgers)
5: Kwity Paye(T2 Minnesota, HM MSU, HM Indiana)
3: Aidan Hutchinson(T2 Minnesota), Michael Barrett(#3 Minnesota)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM Indiana, HM Rutgers)
1: Ben Mason (HM Minnesota), Jaylen Mayfield (HM Minnesota), Roman Wilson (HM MSU), Brad Robbins(HM Indiana),
Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week
Michigan intercepting Rutgers on fourth down to win a triple overtime game. Wait, come back!
Honorable mention: Johnson torching a Rutgers DB and McNamara hitting him; the untouched Jackson return; the semblance of a run game.
?MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.
Rutgers getting to overtime when their stick QB dragged multiple Michigan defenders into the endzone.
Honorable mention: All field goals; the fourth-down TD to set up the two point conversion; playing with no free safety against a post
OFFENSE
Changing what you call. I'll get into this in more detail but McNamara's entry coincided with a change in playcalling. Michigan ran a lot more quick stuff to the outside and found a ground game. With limited exceptions it didn't seem like the QB switch enabled those changes. (McNamara scoring a short touchdown on a bonafide zone read stands out as an exception.) The QB certainly benefited from them.
Haskins finds the cutbacks. McNamara also benefited from the Michigan ground game ceasing to be nonexistent. First half rush yards: 33. Second half: 129. Much of this was Hassan Haskins finding himself surrounded in the backfield and squeezing through cutback lanes while batting away arm tackles. Other parts were bonafide RPS+ plays, like a counter trap:
That may be the first time since the Minnesota game that Michigan got rushing yards based on play design.
And then things get put together. Michigan followed that up with a little pop pass for a TD:
These are not opportunities afforded to you when you can't run the ball one iota.
Imprecision, eventual improvement. Michigan's pick game has been weak all year, with missed opportunities early in this one. Things did get a better. Bell executed a perfect pick on a slant touchdown where he located a defender and turned around, butt out, to eliminate him.
Then he jumped up and down like Pat Fitzgerald about it. So we value these improvements.
It happened! Chris Evans. Split wide. Gets a linebacker.
Michigan borfs the pick route(see above) and Evans still barely gets touched by that linebacker. I can now fade into oblivion. It took five years, but it happened. o
DEFENSE
Also in performances are not consistent. Ye gods, Dax Hill had a disaster. He was directly responsible for both of Rutgers's longest pass plays. On the first he tried to catch an arm-punt in his chest instead of high-pointing the ball or running through the wide receiver.
go get the ball
On the second he was Bartleby the Free Safety: asked to play the deep middle against a post he said he would prefer not to. He also got victimized on the Vedral completion from the sideline. He did do better at high-pointing the ball on the final snap.
It is notable that almost all previous Dax Hill events have been Hill in man coverage and not Hill trying to play a deep zone. This doesn't mean that he's incapable of doing so—when you play a deep zone correctly the ball generally does not get thrown at you. But yeesh.
Various walk-ons. Michigan played Jess Speight at DT, Adam Shibley at LB, and Hunter Reynolds at safety. All acquitted themselves fairly well. It's still a major issue that Michigan's top backups at DT, LB, and S are walk-ons because this team has almost no experienced depth. The only scholarship backup linebackers are true freshmen. It's not quite as raided at safety, but the only non-true freshman scholarship backup options there are German Green and Quinten Johnson, who is coming off a serious injury and may as well be a true freshman.
I don't have to tell anyone that Michigan's roster management has been a disaster, but here's the latest manifestation of it.
Reynolds did a thing. He got over the top of a slot fade to Bo Melton.
This has not happened in a long time. You can only get over the top of route on the edge of the field if you cheat to it; that's what Reynolds did. Since the color guy was saying "this is going to be a slot fade to Bo Melton" and I was thinking "oh man this is going to be a slot fade to Bo Melton" this wasn't the most out-there thing to anticipate. Still nice to see a safety make a play over the top.
Now it's slants. Rutgers's tying drive was a boatload of slants on which almost every member of the secondary got beaten so badly there was no contest on the catch. Green, Gray, and Hill all gave up first downs on third and long. Not great.
Not even mad about this one though. Rutgers's tribute to Vincent Smith could not have been better executed.
If that ball doesn't force the running back to catch it while going flat out Michigan likely tackles that in the backfield.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Well, he is fast. Giles Jackson had the world's easiest kick return touchdown. He caught the ball on the five, angled towards the sideline, and then ran straight. This is as close as you're ever going to get to a 100-meter dash in football pads and Jackson crossed the goal line at 14:50.
Maybe make some field goals? This is my advice. Kick it through, not around.
MISCELLANEOUS
A horrible spot. FWIW, the fourth and one attempt where Milton was ruled down was a preposterous spot. He easily made the 42. I can't complain that Michigan didn't challenge that, because they literally never overturn spots that aren't on the goal line.
The usual clock management. Michigan's two-minute drill:
:24 - 1st dn - incomplete
— Due# (@JDue51) November 22, 2020
:19 - 2nd dn - incomplete
:15 - 3rd dn - complete to Corum
:09 - 1st dn - complete to Jackson
:05 - 2nd dn - false start
:05 - 2nd dn - complete to Sanristil
01: - 1st dn - missed FG
This is a full-on Dead Dove Do Not Eat situation. Michigan ran four plays in the first 90 seconds of their two minute drill. This is never changing.
Frames Janklin of the week. Greg Schiano had a third and ten on his twenty five in OT; field goal wins it. So he has his quarterback kneel down for a two yard loss so he can center the ball. The ensuing field goal fades wide. 1) If it was kicked from the right hash it's good. 2) If the field goal is five yards closer because you ran for three yards on third down, it's good.
I'm supposed to have a joke about this or something but instead I can only gape at it.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
Schiano also really helped us out by calling timeouts during our two-minute drill at the end of the first half. He basically offered us another 3-4 plays worth of time, which we graciously declined to take advantage of.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:02 PM ^
Football is a game for gentlemen, sir. It was a courtesy that should always be extended.
November 23rd, 2020 at 3:29 PM ^
Maybe Schiano confused our coaches into thinking that he wanted us to score, so we said no, no, can't give our enemy what he wants.
November 23rd, 2020 at 5:57 PM ^
He was "advance freezing" our kicker.
It worked.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
The tweet on the “2 minute” offense has got to be one of the most depressing things to read. I’m not one of those people that thinks Michigan should be able to get every 5 star to play here or win every game but geez, is it too much to ask to be able use tempo and manage the clock correctly?
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
completely agree - i'm one of the least 'fire harbaugh' guys on this board, but that crap just makes my head explode. clock management should be a base competency.
November 23rd, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
As Brian always says, "every team should have a Madden kid on the sideline just for managing the clock."
November 23rd, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
100%. all he has to do is turn around and ask one of the student managers.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^
Tempo and game management are the least defensible items going against this staff at this point. These are things that high school coaches/kids figure out and do constantly. I hope it’s deliberate, but I’m not so sure.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
Hey Henne, good to hear from you. Sad we can’t tailgate this year.
Part of me thinks moving on from Harbaugh is the way to go, the other half says don’t risk it - how are you feeling?
November 28th, 2020 at 2:04 AM ^
Hey hey!! Good to hear from you, epic tailgates next year my dude. I’m torn also. As I look around the college football landscape, a lot of weird stuff going on around the country. As a rule, I try hard not to overreact to any one thing, but things are certainly troubling. Mostly, I don’t really know where Michigan would go from here. Major crossroads again.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
Yeah, the clock management is just broken for Harbaugh. The tempo stuff I sorta get just because you've got basically your only QB left and maybe there's some issues getting the plays set up. But yeah, one of the strongest arguments against Harbaugh is he just leaves points out on the field to end halves and it's a killer.
November 23rd, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
"The tempo stuff I sorta get just because you've got basically your only QB left and maybe there's some issues getting the plays set up."
So how do you explain the utter inability to go tempo in the previous 5 years? These are systemic issues for Harbaugh...
November 23rd, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^
I'm more just referring to this year in terms of tempo; generally speaking I agree they have never been great at it but Gattis and co. did run it a couple times last year to middling success. I think Harbaugh recognizes its value and has tried to incorporate it where he can but this year in particular my guess is the train wheels are really on the offense.
November 23rd, 2020 at 6:50 PM ^
"he just leaves points out on the field to end halves and it's a killer."
Harbaugh learned from a master in that respect—if I had a fiver for every time Schembechler sat on the ball at the end of the first half—regardless of what the score was or who we were was playing—I could take the wife out to the Chop House and still have money left over for brandy and cigars.
November 23rd, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
If you watched SNF last night when Mahomes led KC down the field for a game winning TD in less than 1:30 on the clock, there's a stark difference in tempo and urgency from KC offense. Yes, it helps that KC has the best QB in the league but when you compare it to Harbaugh, it looked slow and with zero urgency. I do not understand why Harbaugh is so bad at 2 min offense.
November 23rd, 2020 at 5:31 PM ^
You clearly don't remember Andy Reid in the 2:00 drill pre-Mahomes (in both KC & Philly). His offenses were every bit as incompetent at it as UM's currently is. The change is 1,000% due to Mahomes.
November 23rd, 2020 at 4:34 PM ^
Harbaugh has admitted in the past that offensive play calls are essentially "be committee". Sure, Gattis makes the actual calls, but it's a collaboration between Gattis, Harbaugh, and maybe even Warinner and/or someone up in the booth to decide what those calls are.
This may explain the lack of an effective tempo or 2-minute offense. Are they still collaborating to get play calls in? If so, that is atrocious, inexplicable, and just plain stupid. But it wouldn't surprise me. It also looks like it's not even practiced. Players were not sprinting back to get lined up and looked confused as to what the plan was. Pretty much every team scripts their first 1-2 possessions of every game. Aren't we supposed to have a scripted 2-minute offensive possession where players don't even need to look to the sideline for the play and just know the plays? Sure there can be tweaks and adjustments (particularly in timeouts or when the ball is spiked), but it is baffling to not have this and it has always been this way under Harbaugh. Mind-boggling.
November 23rd, 2020 at 7:07 PM ^
Harbaugh gets 4 and 5* players, coaches ‘em down and can’t keep them. Do you really expect JH to run the clock effectively?
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
None of the vids are working for me, anyone else? Or problem on my end?
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^
they're working for me. that said, the thumbnails are making my goddamned eyes bleed. why do they shout so?
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^
The timing doesn't work on any of them for me. They all start at the beginning.
November 23rd, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^
Everything fine for me on my desktop.
/Now back to work
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
Our 2 minute offense has looked the same since 2015 Utah, which is why I'll never believe Jim's paw prints aren't all over the offense still.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^
I don't know to what extent you consider "Jim's paws" all over the offense. But what I do know is that Cade said in his interview after the game that Gattis did the play calling.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:41 PM ^
A chef that directs his kitchen to cook their steaks well done and top them with pineapple and mac and cheese because that's what the owner of the restaurant wants served in his establishment is still the chef in charge of calling out directions to make that dish in the kitchen -- even if that's not what he'd prefer to do.
This is Michigan's offense. We keep expecting a nice mid-rare steak with a pan sauce, and keep getting served the well done pineapple mac disaster no matter which chef is in the kitchen.
At some point...it ain't the chef.
November 23rd, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
Well, that was a tortured analogy... I think it worked, though.
November 23rd, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^
Username checks out
November 23rd, 2020 at 5:16 PM ^
We keep expecting a nice mid-rare steak with a pan sauce
You get that pan sauce shit outta here.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
first, thanks for the o'korn rminder. on a related note, i honestly don't get the "how could they possibly have started milton over x or y" discussion. coaches since time immemorial have played a guy with a higher ceiling (which milton clearly has) over a possibly-less-talented but more "savvy" other player. you take the bad reps for some period in the hopes that the lightbulb goes on. when it doesn't, you yank them. every coach on earth has done this at some point.
the 'epic double bird' award clearly and without hesitation deserves to go to eubanks. good LORD he was terrible...looking forward to seeing a huge negative number on him in UFR.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:45 PM ^
See, I think you have to add this to the evidence against our coaching staff. I don't have a problem with looking at Milton as your starter because he might have the highest ceiling. I DO have a problem with the following:
- Letting McCaffrey leave the team....regardless of what the back-story is there.
- Over-hyping Milton in the QB depth chart race based on how he does without pads and 11-v-11.
- Not setting him up to succeed with the play calling....either because you don't trust him to run some plays, he is making wrong decisions with the plays you call, or you insist on calling certain plays for him, or you change your strategy game by game.
The second play they called for McNamara was a great RPO that worked. When was the last time Milton ran one of those? MN? They called multiple WR and RB screens with McNamara in the game....when did Milton get those?
This is my same gripe on defense, similar to what Seth has said. Stick with the system you want to run and know best. If you aren't talented enough to execute, live with what you can do. Don't try to change your system on the fly. If you want to run Reads, RPOs, screens, etc - run them with Shea, run them with Milton, and run them with McNamara.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:55 PM ^
fair enough, and no real argument here.
i would only say that the things you cite - the acknowledgement and positive talk about milton based on non-live workouts, mccaffrey leaving the team under admittedly strange circumstances, and keeping the training wheels on, for whatever reason - are either explainable or or defensible if the coaching staff is putting a couple of bucks on a lottery ticket. particularly in the weirdest season any of us will ever experience...this, more than any other season, is a year to do unconventional things.
i'm not saying it was right or wrong to start milton, only that, if you start with the premise that he's a beta version of cam newton (and i think it was possible to say that), the first five weeks might not be so crazy.
November 23rd, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^
After reading the post about McCaffrey's sickness at practice, his departure makes perfect sense. If you tell your coach you're sick and can't go, and he tells you to get your ass back in there, and you go and tell your parents, and it's during a pandemic, it's not hard to see his folks convincing him that playing for Harbaugh might not be the best idea for his future. Maybe he didn't even need that much convincing after that.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:09 PM ^
I thought Milton was good, and is good. He showed some legit ability in the first 3 games. But against Wisconsin he looked like...O'Korn. And he looked the way Peters did at the end of 2017. ANd like Patterson when he had terrible games and as he regressed all of last year. It's sad, man. I'm afraid for McNamara to get a lot of snaps with the first team offense - God only knows what they're doing to these quarterbacks (also - why was Rudock so good and Speight pretty serviceable? What the hell happened?)
November 23rd, 2020 at 6:39 PM ^
What they are supposed to run with Milton as the QB? What does he do well? As a coach, what would do they trust him with? After a few games on film, defenses figured out how to handle the Michigan offense with Milton as the QB. He'll make a wow play or two with his arm, hit a few good reads and slants that are easy to throw for some yardage and . . . that's about it. It's a pretty easy gameplan with him--stop the run at all costs and make him beat down the field. He can't do it. The only viable offense with Milton at the helm is the Peters offense: run for 250-300 yards, throw it 20 times for 150 and win 35-10. Michigan doesn't have that team this year.
November 23rd, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^
yes, exactly. and football is the one sport where it's not only difficult, it's usually outright not allowed for the defense to give a QB game speed experience in practice.
so you get high-ceiling QBs going against scout teams that are usually not even backups (they're third string and backups), they aren't nearly as experienced as opponent players, they don't give the QB the kind of looks that opposing teams can, and then they're literally disallowed from hitting the QB.
This doesn't happen in other sports because there isn't the same injury risk mitigation in practice. In basketball, practice is played at game speed. You find out real quick if the backup SG is tearing up the starters instead of vice versa.
Not as easy in football. Granted, the coaches usually get it right but there are plenty of examples of them either getting it wrong or waiting too long on the younger guy to give him a chance.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:28 PM ^
I'm fine with pumping the brakes but its worth pointing out that Cade McNamara was the QB Gattis recruited to run his offense while O'Korn was a reclamation project.
And for all the shit Rutgers is getting regarding their formidability, half their team is made up of transfers from better programs, including Vedral, who was a dual-threat QB coming into college (originally played at UCF where they have had their share of excellent QB play recently). Not saying he should plow through our defense but he isn't a traffic cone either.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
Mighty big of you to think a traffic cone isn't an obstacle to this defensive coaching staff.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^
I got into it a bit with the Best & Worst stuff, but people painting McNamara and O'Korn with the same brush are missing a lot of context. O'Korn had lost his job at Houston because he couldn't stop throwing picks (8 picks vs. 6 TDs in ~5 games), and was a guy Harbaugh sort of took at flyer on because he didn't have a ton of depth at the QB spot and saw some potential. O'Korn was also the #32 QB prospect in his class and barely in the top 700 players nationally. McNamara was a top-300 player who threw a ton in HS and was a top-7 QB in the country. He looked absolutely competent out there and the coaches wanted him. It's not remotely insane to believe that he'd be a good player.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:24 PM ^
I almost made my comment (from above) in your Best and Worst diary, or at least some facsimile of it, as I thought your point was excellent.
I saw a great comment in a thread a few weeks ago pointing out how Harbaugh did exactly what everyone screamed he should do: hire an offensive coordinator with a modern approach. Josh Gattis, for all his flaws and inexperience, is now working with a QB he wanted/recruited. Maybe the two will find a nice groove. I am incredibly disappointed that we didn't get to see McCaffrey get a true shot to run the team but at this point, for this season, I will take competency and McNamara seems to provide that. That and the Pistol they brought out with him in the game. I love the Pistol.
November 23rd, 2020 at 5:23 PM ^
I lived near Texas once upon ago and was able to catch a lot of Houston game. JOK was not good at Houston in his 2nd year as a starting QB. I was befuddled by the JOK hype when he transferred to Michigan bc a lot of them were watching highlight vids instead of actually watching how he played at Houston.
Same thing with Shea. He was bad at Ole Miss who was propped up by having a bunch of NFL WRs to throw when Ole Miss had DK Metcalf, AJ Brown and Van Jefferson. He lost his job to Tam'amu and was not going to be the starter so he transferred to Michigan. He was the exact same QB at Ole Miss as he was at Michigan. A lot of them simply looked at recruiting rankings and stats and think he'll be great.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
Well, Vedral certainly plowed through it on the 2-point play...
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:53 PM ^
A key point - Rutgers in the past was not competitive because they didn't have that much talent AND had poor coaching. Now, they got an immediate injection of talent from Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan, and they have better coaching - they aren't a great team but as someone noted on a local NJ podcast, they are now a typical bad college team.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^
Our weekly dose of humility.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^
I wasn't going to watch the game. I had no desire to watch the puppy bowl at night in Piscataway. For some reason (probably 2020 morbid curiosity), I turned it on shortly after halftime. Right after the Jackson return TD. I watched Rutgers promptly answer with their own TD. I told myself that if Rutgers scores again I would shut it off. Of course Michigan decided to take the lead on Cade's hope-inducing performance. I just knew Rutgers would tie it for OT, though. I tried to tell myself to turn it off probably 4 or 5 times in just one half. I couldn't, but I wish I had.
Here's to hoping Cade's performance wasn't a flash in the pan and the offense at minimum opens up for some wins.
I've reached the point where I want JH gone, but I never want to cheer for losses to aid that outcome. Saturday almost had me rethinking that stance.
Forever: Go Blue.
November 23rd, 2020 at 1:38 PM ^
Okay....let me be clear that I'm not trying to over-hype what happened with McNamara in the game or defend the dysfunctional state of the program or advocate for coaches to stick around. It is rational and safe for our emotional well being to keep any hope in check for the offense because McNamara may turn into a pumpkin against a good defense. With that being said.....I think there's more reason for optimism than Brian alludes in this or the podcast. Why?
First, as he sort of points out, the playbook opened. (That's a GREAT question to explore further since it feels like Milton has been running offense-101 after the MN game.)
Second, McNamara was able to operate like a QB where he made reads, reacted to pressure, spread the ball around, avoided big negative plays, etc. Nevada HS football is nothing to brag about, but piling up 12,000 career yards means you've seen some stuff.
Third, do PSU and Maryland count as "real defenses"?
Fourth, and most important is to put in context what he did compared to what we normally do to Rutgers. This site has laughed and pointed at how Michigan abuses Rutgers for five years. Now we're laughing and pointing at ourselves for needing 3-OT to beat them. But let's break down what the offense did once the change was made:
- He entered the game with 4:14 left in the second quarter. So he played about 2.3 quarters of regulation football.
- In that time Michigan scored 35 points. If he kept up the same success for a full game, it works out with some rough math to about 60 points.
- If you don't like rough math, you can look at drives. McNamara had 9 drives if you include OT but ignore the Jackson KR and the end of game few seconds. In those 9 drives we scored 6 TDs, missed two FG, and punted once.
- Milton had 5 drives with one missed FG all he had to show for it. If you estimate how McNamara does with five more drives, you probably get another 17 points or so - a little over 50.
- So if that were a full game, we're scoring 50-60 points with a couple of punts. While totally hypothetical....it is still logical based on how well we played after the change.
- The last five years we've scored 52, 42, 35, 78, and 49 points against Rutgers for an average of 51.2.
- So third string or not, Rutgers sloppiness or not, context or not.....with McNamara this looked like any other game against Rutgers on offense. And that doesn't even account for the fact that he was missing 3/5th of his OL after losing 4 NFL starters from last season and didn't have Nico either.
Now....don't get me started on the tire fire that is our defense.
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
I totally agree with your thinking. The kicking game (FG) is a dumpster fire right along with the defense.
While one game doesn't make a QB, I was really impressed with McNamara's play and perhaps more importantly, his energy and impact on his teammates. The offense was totally different after he came into the game. This Michigan team lacks leadership and energy everywhere. The comparisons to JOK are laughable. JOK was a good athlete but a terrible QB. Cade made throws from all sorts of arm angles and all sorts of types... He can throw a ball with touch and also zip in passes as need be. Give the dude a chance.
The only way the team wins another is to outscore opponents. The defense is just sad.
I will say I was impressed with Reynolds (27) after he replaced Hawkins. He was intense and came to play. Liked how he fought through a stiff arm once.
November 24th, 2020 at 3:54 AM ^
I am enjoying (and reading, for the 1st time since gm 1) mgoblog reader commentary.
There's been some very well documented stuff making me feel much better that Cade is not just JO'K 2.0!
But, not to belabor the literal & figurative obvious, they only way any team ever wins any game is to outscore the opponents!
So, yeah, let's do more of that!
November 23rd, 2020 at 2:37 PM ^
I'd also point out that with McNamara it is not just part of one game. His first drive against Wisconsin was as good of QB play as we have had in years. Now the next couple drives didn't go as well, but the weather turned, we were running out the string on the wrong end of a blowout, etc.
Does it mean McNamara is definitely a savior? Of course not. But we've seen enough to suggest that this won't be a repeat of John O'Korn.
November 23rd, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^
Yeah, I don't think McNamara is some kind of savior but he's almost certainly much better than Milton. It's odd that his game is being used as an example of a potential outlier here in the game column.
The data we have on Milton is far more damning. He had under 50% completion pct in HS. It's starting to make sense that he had no rushing yards: even his HS coaches didn't trust him to make reads. Milton's entire career when viewed objectively is terrible. The Milton Minnesota game - which wasn't all that impressive in context - was literally the only positive game in Milton's career.
McNamara on other hand was a record breaking HS QB that I'm pretty sure Alabama wanted and who immediately looked much better in both of his last two appearances.
Usually I'm of the mind that the coaches see them everyday in practice and know better but for QBs, they can't replicate what opponents are going to show and they can't replicate game pressure so coaches get those decisions wrong sometimes, especially when choosing between two young guys with no experience between the two of them.
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