good news: we have a new set of empty stadium photos [Marc Gregor-Campredon]

Unverified Voracity Is Thrust Upon Comment Count

Brian September 3rd, 2020 at 1:30 PM

Ah well so. The President is now involving himself with the Big Ten's decision to cancel fall sports, thus forcing this site to consider whether he is likely to have any impact on the situation. Here's a video of the president saying that people were throwing bags of soup at police. It seems unlikely this man will have any positive impact on the situation.

Is there a situation? Dan Patrick has a source saying that the Big 10 may reverse course and try to start up October 10th:

There's a lot of hedging in this item above, and other Sources are dumping on it pretty hard. Pete Thamel:

To say multiple sources denied the notion of the Big Ten playing immediately would not be strong enough. The sources heartily laughed at it. The notion of playing around Thanksgiving is in embryonic discussion, and there’s a desire among coaches to start as early as possible. But “immediately” is in another universe, especially with multiple Big Ten teams not even having players on campus right now.

Dan Patrick says this source was the same one who was out in front of the Big Ten's cancellation, but that resulted in a report of a 12-2 vote of some variety which apparently did not happen. I'd put Thamel's cadre of sources ahead of Dan Patrick's solitary, already wobbly one. Likelihood of an October surprise: ~1%.

Man I bet Kevin Warren thought this was going to be a cushy gig. Instead everyone's furious at him for other people's votes and he has to get on the phone with a [redacted] and listen to it blather on about all the strokes it didn't have and how antifa bought all the mulligatawny because it's foreign.

[After THE JUMP: presidential debates should just be Jeopardy! Fact.]

Doomed, if true. Penn State's top athletic doctor:

During a State College Area school board of directors meeting on Monday night, Wayne Sebastianelli — Penn State’s director of athletic medicine — made some alarming comments about the link between COVID-19 and myocarditis, particularly in Big Ten athletes. Sebastianelli said that cardiac MRI scans revealed that approximately a third of Big Ten athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 appeared to have myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle that can be fatal if left unchecked.

“When we looked at our COVID-positive athletes, whether they were symptomatic or not, 30 to roughly 35 percent of their heart muscles (are) inflamed,” Sebastianelli said. “And we really just don’t know what to do with it right now. It’s still very early in the infection. Some of that has led to the Pac-12 and the Big Ten’s decision to sort of put a hiatus on what’s happening.”

That is a big difference between the previous statements about myocarditis in Big Ten athletes. When the issue first made it to the public consciousness the fact that 10 to 15 Big Ten athletes had been diagnosed was cited. That rate would mean that Rutgers football alone would have 10 guys.

That's alarming, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's get a second opinion.

Truly the stupidest timeline.

More in stupidest timeline. Almost half of Power 5 schools will not disclose their COVID testing numbers. Many of them are citing HIPAA, which obviously does not apply:

Many of the schools that declined to give data to ESPN cited federal student privacy laws, university protocols and other confidentiality considerations, although legal experts say those laws shouldn't be applied to such a request because the data wouldn't identify specific students.

Michigan was one of ten schools that answered all of ESPN's questions.

Basketball plans solidify. Per the Athletic the Division 1 oversight council is expected to move the start of basketball season back two weeks to November 25th, which is the day before Thanksgiving. Many schools have altered their schedules so that students will not return to campus after the Thanksgiving break; hopefully the late reduces fiasco levels somewhat.

Also in the offing: bubbles. Michigan's neutral site tourney this year is run by these guys:

The Gazelle Group, which operates several events scheduled for Madison Square Garden and the Barclays Center, and the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame, which puts on the Hall of Fame Tip-Off and Hall of Fame Invitational, are proposing another bubble model with an intriguing twist. They are going to invite several teams to come to Mohegan Sun, the casino resort in Uncasville, Conn., during a two-week window in December. Not only would those teams have the chance to play games already scheduled, but they also would be given the opportunity to cross-pollinate with the other events and pick up additional opponents.

Rick Giles, the president of the Gazelle Group, says he is talking to additional schools that have expressed interest in joining up. If the season begins 15 days later than normal, schools around the country will be looking to make up games. Schools also are also anticipating cancellations of nonconference games that are usually held on campus, creating a demand for matchups made on the fly.

Michigan was scheduled to play two games at Madison Square Garden. Instead they might end up going to a bubble and get many of their nonconference games in that way. That two week window would probably have to be pretty rapid-fire if it is Michigan's main/only nonconference slate. Six games? Seven?

Also in the Athletic. Brendan Quinn previews the season. There is the requisite amount of Franz hype but I thought this was an interesting thing from Columbia transfer Mike Smith:

“I don’t know if I necessarily see myself like (Simpson) because I don’t need the ball,” Smith says. “I’m not a (ball-) dominant guard, where I need to come off ball screens to create. I feel like this team, a lot of these guys have played with each other and they have one more year in Coach Howard’s system, and it’s going to open up other doors for people to create for themselves, instead of one person having to create for them, which was what I saw when I watched the film. That’s why (Simpson) had nine assists per game, because he was creating for everybody else, which I can do, but, like, I don’t feel like I need to do that. I mean, if Coach tells me that’s what he needs me to do, then, hey, I’m going to dribble the ball like I’m James Harden and find everybody.”

When Smith committed to Michigan we noted that his mediocre efficiency had a lot to do with his giant usage and the team around him. He appeared to have the #1 translatable skill for an up-transfer: a sweet stroke. Smith was a 95th percentile spot-up shooter last year. If Michigan can find spot-ups for him that should go very well. Getting spot-ups for a 5'10" kid who's supposed to be your point guard is the trick.

Hello fast person. Hockey picked up a commitment from Minnesota forward Jackson Hallum recently. The Draft Analyst on his performance at the Minnesota state tournament:

The first thing you notice about Hallum is his speed – pound for pound, he could be the fastest skater in the entire 2020 draft class, let alone in the State of Hockey.

But having elite speed is just part of Hallum’s consistent contributions. He is a versatile checker but also a strong playmaker and accurate passer with good vision. One of the things I like the most about Hallum is that he makes heady plays while slicing through the neutral zone at top spot. All his movements are fluid no matter the direction, and he will peel away from pressure or execute a timely chip and chase rather than try to take on three or four opponents at once. Hallum also plays physical, is an in-your-face forechecker, and can anchor the top penalty-killing unit. There’s some Ryder Rolston in his game from a stylistic standpoint, but Hallum is more creative as a playmaking center than a shoot-first winger. He’s uncommitted but should have his choice of premier Division I schools.

Sounds like he could be in the Dwight Helminen/Carl Hagelin vein of extremely fast defensive centers with some offensive upside. Michigan gets commits from Minnesota high school players so rarely I have no context for his numbers. He had 61 point in 43 games last year, but he's in leagues where guys score well over 2 or even 3 PPG. There's a guy in his league who put up almost 4 PPG who Neutral Zone barely ranks!

Hallum's likely to be in the USHL next year after Green Bay took him, and that'll provide some context that's more useful.

Etc.: Kork Coupons self-Dragos. College players already sign all sorts of crazy crap that in any other context would clearly designate them as employees. Minnesota gets a waiver for a 7-foot Drake transfer. Max Bultman on hockey's incoming class, stay inside, sacrifice all for hockey. Good breakdowns of Matt Beniers and Johnny Beecher at the Daily. It's a post-X world.

This year's Madden is a doozy.

Upcoming vote of no confidence in the administration. More on myocarditis. One man's bad math ruined English soccer. What rescued it? A guy with a horn incessantly playing Earth Wind & Fire's "September" during all national team games, men's and women's.

Comments

maznblu

September 3rd, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^

I would argue that MGoBlog/Brian hasn't really changed, but that the political landscape has changed. 

MGoBlog/Brian has always been about trying to analyze Michigan sports with as much objectivity as possible. UFR's are an attempt to try to break down games by each play and analyze who did well or not. In other words, it is an attempt to not just rely on a subjective experience of a game, where "Michigan sucked" or "Michigan dominated" are just impressions formed by faulty data.

The availability heuristic suggests that we tend to pay attention to more memorable data. More memorable data tends to be emotional, so we often tend to remember the plays that frustrated us the most. So even in a win, fans often do not feel satisfied. We wonder why we can't be Alabama,  not realizing, however, that Alabama fans are probably often frustrated after wins for the same reason (they remember plays that didn't go well and frustrated them). UFR is an attempt to avoid that natural bias.

MGoBlog/Brian uses, in essence, a scientific approach. As a result, it is no surprise that he is making more "political" comments because of the nature of the arguments being made that do not take a scientific approach. The scientific method recognizes that confirmation bias will get in the way of finding the truth, and so it actively tests its ideas and attempts to disprove them. Trying to prove your own view is easy, but leads to false confidence. Being able to avoid disproving your own view is much harder, but actually leads to more accurate claims.

MGoBlog/Brian, such as in the example of UFR, is open to disproving his subjective feelings about a game. And I would assume listening to other people make claims based on subjective or political viewpoints probably drives him nuts. And he's going to call it for what it is. 

MGoBlog/Brian is being consistent and arguing for a scientific and fact-based approach to information. It's just that the world has politicized science even more than it had in the past. He's standing up for a scientific approach.

oriental andrew

September 3rd, 2020 at 2:26 PM ^

Many of them are citing HIPAA, which obviously does not apply:

Many of the schools that declined to give data to ESPN cited federal student privacy laws, university protocols and other confidentiality considerations, although legal experts say those laws shouldn't be applied to such a request because the data wouldn't identify specific students.

Given the ESPN quote, it looks like they're actually citing FERPA and perhaps state-specific student privacy laws. 

lsjtre

September 3rd, 2020 at 2:40 PM ^

If the vote is true, the Big Ten really needs to stop jerking us around. Either football is happening or it's not, I guess if it's definitely not people need Big Ten topics to talk about I suppose so these stories help with that but seriously, just make it one way or the other not MAYBE

Blue Vet

September 3rd, 2020 at 2:49 PM ^

Brian writes about people who are in charge simply because they're in charge, without any particular talent for the job.

The opposite seems to me to apply to President Schlissel, who knows what he's doing.

So if the University's football team isn't playing this fall, there are good reasons. And if it turns out they play, it's because new info or better testing makes it possible.

Teeba

September 3rd, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^

I agree about President Schlissel. I don't understand this faculty senate vote of no confidence. This exists:

https://www.uofmhealth.org/covid-19-update

Current inpatients that are COVID-19 positive: 8

I generally side with the, "better to be safe than sorry," crowd, but complete and total surrender to the virus is not right either. I know there are health risks to driving. I do it anyway. I bought a safe car, drive defensively, and wear my seatbelt. I know covid is out there. I social distance, wear a mask, wash my hands, etc. Life goes on...

Jota09

September 3rd, 2020 at 6:22 PM ^

I don't understand this constant chatter about how President Schlissel is so above reproach because he has an immunologist background.  This is the same person that brought back all the students to campus despite this board acknowledging how stupid that was.  It was the driving consensus around here that students on campus was the reason we couldn't have safe football or other sports.  Everyone saw campus outbreaks coming.  For all the credit he gets around here for being against football, he gets no condemnation for bringing those students back in the 1st place.  He is against football for a situation he is responsible for creating.  

There has also been a lot of talk about the students are back for money reasons.  And if that is true, everyone in administration should be ashamed of themselves.  This board freaks out about how in danger everyone is, so to place all the students in such grave danger just to charge them money and then go to remote as soon as the checks clear is so moral and becoming of the leaders and best. 

HarryBigCojones

September 3rd, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^

I thought politics didn't matter ?!  My wife once again is correct... "its always about politics" !!

Now if she would just make the meat-loaf she's been promising to make since Monday !!

cbutter

September 3rd, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^

Genuine question here, not trying to spark a debate, but if these universities aren't sharing their COVID case numbers, where did the PSU doctor get the information to determine that 30-35% had myocarditis? 

I read through the article and may have missed it. 

lhglrkwg

September 3rd, 2020 at 3:49 PM ^

I think this says a lot

Many of the schools that declined to give data to ESPN cited federal student privacy laws, university protocols and other confidentiality considerations, although legal experts say those laws shouldn't be applied to such a request because the data wouldn't identify specific students.

Maybe they genuinely think it's a HIPAA thing. Or maybe they don't want pesky positive tests to get in the way of footbaw

zh2oson

September 3rd, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^

he has to get on the phone with a [redacted] and listen to it blather on about all the strokes it didn't have and how antifa bought all the mulligatawny because it's foreign.

What a crap-tastic time to be alive.  

All'n4Michigan

September 4th, 2020 at 12:09 AM ^

Long time viewer of the blog, rarely post, but I thought I would say something this time.

I know the blog steers away from political views and such, but the innuendos in this article suggesting our President is not a positive presence in getting in B1G football going again are ridiculous. President Trump has been a vocal advocate for continuing a normal way of life (sports at all levels) while proceeding with caution and safety. I am not afraid to say I am an avid President Trump supporter on this blog and feel the negative press he has received, including in this specific blog, is unwarranted and not true. I hope President Trump can get involved and push for a start to the season sooner than later! Go Blue!

WestQuad

September 4th, 2020 at 8:17 AM ^

I just read that a new study predicts 411,000 dead by January 1st.   ...and I just signed my kids up for soccer despite the fact that they are only going to school in-person 2x a week.    I really hope Michigan gets to play this year and that Ambry Thomas, Mayfield, etc. get to come back, but it is hard to say if it is the right decision or not.  I only know one person who died and he was in his 80's and I don't know anyone else who's had it.   The whole thing feels like not wearing a seat belt, having unprotected sex, drunk driving or trying opiods.  Most of the time you'll be just fine, but it is risky. People are bad at assessing risk.  To compound it, wearing a mask or not having football protects other people which is even harder to get your head around.   I hope we have football AND put in the firewalls that prevent the kids and communities from getting sick.  Call me pollyanna.