Mailbag: Choose A QB, RPS Details, State Of Program, Partridge Mobility
Assuming each player is healthy, coached by a competent OC and behind a competent OL, which Michigan QB would you choose: Tate Forcier, Devin Gardner or Shea Patterson?
Bonus question: where does John Navarre fit in?
This is a tremendous question. None of these guys except Navarre had the luxury of a career where they got to stay at the same place and play the same position. Forcier bombed out after two years; Gardner got moved to WR for an offseason and half a season; Patterson transferred from Ole Miss after two years.
On top of that, both Gardner and Patterson got new offensive coordinators in their senior year, and on top of that Michigan's offensive line in the late Hoke era was so bad that it obviously broke Gardner's brain. You can make an argument that Ole Miss's OL did the same thing to Patterson—I still remember doing the Alabama-Ole Miss game when Patterson was a sophomore, during which I started abbreviating "Virtually Unblocked Guy Up The Gut" as VUGUG to save time. All three would have looked a lot different if placed in a stable situation and allowed to develop in one system over the course of four years.
All that said, I'm taking Gardner. Gardner's 2013 was the best season any of these QBs put up at Michigan, pipping Patterson's 2018. Gardner completed 60% of his passes for 8.6 YPA, 21 TDs, and 11 INTs. Michigan put up 460 yards against Notre Dame and 603(!!!) against Ohio State; Gardner hit 10 YPA in both. This was the same year Michigan put up 27 for 27 against Penn State and rushed for –48 yards against MSU.
[After THE JUMP: further justification of this take]
Gardner had a disastrous OL—36 sacks allowed that would have been 60 if not for Gardner's mobility—in an offense that straight-up refused to run a constraint play. He damn near singlehandedly beat Notre Dame and was a better two-point conversion call away from a 43-42 win over Ohio State. This season completely ruined him and he was much worse the next year, but if you're asking me which guy I'd take as a freshman this year with the idea that he'd be behind a Warinner OL in a Gattis offense it's him.
As for Navarre: he is the most accomplished college QB being considered but his near-total lack of mobility makes him a poor fit for modern college offenses. Unlike the rest of the list he did get a more or less stable situation. Michigan did replace Stan Parrish with Terry Malone before Navarre's third year, but Malone had been on Michigan's staff since 1997. He was not imported fresh from elsewhere as Doug Nussmeier and Josh Gattis were.
And if you're looking at stats, Navarre benefited from a ton of attempts to get the counting numbers that got him first team All Big Ten. As a senior he was 43rd in YPA on an offense with Braylon Edwards, Jason Avant, and Steve Breaston. This was in part because of the nature of Michigan's offense, which saw Chris Perry catch more passes (44) than Breaston (38). But I don't think I'm taking him over the more modern QBs. He would have had to blow them away as a passer to make up for annually having negative rushing yards.
Question on RPS in the UFR. Are you only grading out the M coach’s playcall, or are you taking a look at both teams to determine the overall complexion of the game?
For example, if the M coach has a great playcall against a certain (perfectly fine) O playcall, M coach gets +1.
If M coach has a poor/weird playcall against normal O coach playcall, that’s a -1.
But what about:
M coach calls a pretty standard play, opposing coach calls an amazing counter to that. Is that RPS -1?
M coach calls a pretty standard play, O coach playcall is unsound in some way. Is that RPS +1?
I’m trying to figure out if RPS is only intended to be a rating for the M coach, or if it’s all relative to the other coach. I’m confused because I expected the ND game’s defensive UFR to be a murdering in RPS, but it was kinda even. So I went and checked the Minnesota Defensive UFR from 2017, and it was a murdering in RPS, but mostly because Minnesota was being dumb, not because Don Brown was a one game playcalling god.
Just curious how you approach it.
CHRIS ALFORD
It is all relative. There is no rock without scissors or paper. So, yes, those also count as RPS.
That's why the Minnesota number was so huge. Michigan wasn't doing anything remarkable; they just blitzed Hudson when a tight end motioned away from his side of the LOS. This put him in unblocked about 15 times, and each of those was an RPS positive.
The Notre Dame game was not the same level of blowout largely because almost nothing I've ever done has approached that Minnesota game. A +6 is still a significant win—keep in mind that an RPS plus is usually at least ten yards worth of playcall and is often 30 or more.
ND fell behind massively in RPS as Michigan got up 17-0 but then there was a significant offensive lull that lasted for a quarter and a half, a portion of which was Michigan assuming ND linebackers had learned not to run full-bore at every outside action and being incorrect. It's all in the UFR.
Also, UFR grades have to be taken in context. It is usually a coach vs coach thing, but not always. Michigan's +6 is much more impressive when you remember that 60% of the game was played in conditions that made throwing the ball near-impossible; ND should have been able to tee off on Michigan runs and impose UFR minuses that I would have shrugged at post-game because of the conditions. Instead Michigan ripped them. I don't shift the grading system when a really good DE comes in or it rains; the numbers don't mean anything without context. The context of the ND game means that +6 was incredibly impressive.
What’s your overall opinion on the trajectory of the program? I was hoping going into the season with the talent on the offense and the rivals at home that this year would be a high water mark for the Harbaugh era but that’s obviously not going to happen. What’s your outlook for the future given the underclassmen, recruiting, coaching and state of the rivals? I sense we are permanently stuck in a plateau of better than most of the Big Ten but a step below OSU.
Michael C. Forster
I mean, yeah. We're Auburn without the absurd good fortune and thunderbolt Heisman JUCO transfer QB. There are many positives:
- Stability at DC and OL coach, two of the three most important assistant spots.
- OL stability in general. Michigan has a very good OL this year and next year it looks like they can plug Hayes and Stueber into two of three openings with little concern; finding a fifth starter means one of about six guys has to come through. Michigan took a highly-regarded six-man OL class last year and redshirted everybody. They have four more OL coming in this year and are looking for a fifth. This is a world away from the OL situation for the last decade.
- Continuity and evolution on defense; Michigan was able to take a massive personnel hit this year and has barely lost a step.
- Michigan's recruiting had a 2017 hiccup but even that class has proven to be good scouting: Vincent Gray, Michael Barrett, Luke Schoonmaker, Hassan Haskins, and Ronnie Bell are five of the six lowest-rated non-kickers in the class and all look like they're on their way to being long-term starters.
- Special teams has been consistently good.
On the other side of the ledger:
- Continual turnover amongst the offensive coaches left Michigan starting from square one in year five.
- Michigan's recruiting has been good but has settled in a tier below OSU's.
- Secondary recruiting has been especially concerning, with no blue-chip CBs since Thomas at a spot where blue chips come through at a high rate; scouting hits on Benjamin St Juste and Keith Washington are rather mitigated by the fact that those guys play at Minnesota and WVU now.
- The program is beset by goofy decision-making and an overall lack of organization that doesn't seem like it's going away.
- Patterson's lack of progress rather dents Harbaugh's reputation as a QB whisperer.
Everyone's much happier if Michigan wins the JT spot game or has Brandon Peters available for the O'Korn game, because while it seems obvious that OSU is a step ahead of Michigan the mountain seems much less insurmountable.
Hi Brian,
Reacting to today’s UV, specifically the part about the assistant coaches. Doesn’t it seem like Chris Partridge would be one to get a shot as a DC somewhere soon?
Great recruiter. Killing it as ST Coordinator. Successful HS Head Coach. Has switched defensive position groups with success at both. Has Don Brown understudy shine on him (like Gattis and Moorhead).
Seems like a rising star in the coaching ranks, and I would think he gets poached as a Coordinator sooner than later, no?
Thanks,
Daniel
It's possible, but one of the newer dynamics in college football is how difficult it is for lower-level schools to pry P5 coaches out of solid jobs. As of last year the top-paid MAC assistant was Buffalo's Rob Ianello, who made 223k. Chris Partridge got a bump to 500k after Alabama took a run at him last year. Buffalo's entire assistant salary pool is two Chris Partridges.
Unless Partridge wants to cut his pay in half the only potential departure routes are to other P5 schools, and usually those jobs go to established DCs or folks the head coach already has a relationship with. Partridge has no obvious coaching bro out there. Before Michigan he was at Paramus; prior to that he had a couple of years at the Citadel and one at Lafayette College.
The biggest threat is probably Rutgers: it's possible their new head coach would try to poach Partridge as a DC because he has a bunch of New Jersey connections. But even there the massive disparities in money make that a lateral move, pay-wise. Rutgers's top-paid assistant last year made 600k; their assistant pool is about half of Michigan's. Would Partridge take a job in which there's a solid possibility he's swept out with everyone else after three years for a minor-or-nonexistent bump in pay on the off chance Rutgers gets it together enough to springboard him into a head job somewhere? Maybe. Doesn't seem like that's the move.
November 12th, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
I think the choice of Gardner here is far and away the right one. My mom is still pissed at Borges and the rest of the coaching staff for screwing him up. She's convinced - and she's almost definitely not wrong - that Gardner had some of the best physical talent that ever took a snap, because there were definitely times he was allowed to show it, and that whatever the coaches were doing (like many people not on MGoBlog, X's and O's aren't her thing) it was a massive waste of his talent.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
Couldn't agree more. The 30 for 30 - Gardner is our 'Best that never was'. He was amazing and was just fucked because of incompetent coaching.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
Bonus question: if you scan the P5 landscape and look at all the programs doing good things to get the most out of their players and win ... which current program would be the best fit for Gardner at his peak? OSU? Oklahoma? LSU? Michigan?
November 12th, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^
Gardner would have been DEADLY in an Urban Meyer offense.
November 12th, 2019 at 4:13 PM ^
Braxton Miller but able to throw.
November 12th, 2019 at 8:43 PM ^
Or say even a...John Harbaugh type offense.
November 12th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
OSU, Oklahoma are no brainers. Those programs turn literally everyone into Heisman candidates (and it's telling how bad they then generally are in the NFL - a sure sign that the program is what's getting the most out of them). You might be able to add Oregon into this tier.
LSU and Clemson...probably. Still a little early to declare LSU's staff magicians but the Joe Burrow improvement from last year is staggering. And Clemson has had undeniably elite QBs such that it's hard to tell how much of this stretch is the QB and how much is the program.
Michigan? Still a no, unfortunately. They're not even close to Clemson, OSU, Oklahoma, or LSU as a program that would get the most of Gardner. Heck, Gardner would be better off with Illinois or Minnesota offensive coaching, which talent notwithstanding, is significantly better than Michigan's coaching.
Patterson has regressed this year. The second QB in a row to do that in his second year of starting which is...not a good sign for the program. Michigan hasn't had more than a half season of good QB play from anyone in Harbaugh's tenure. The offensive coaching has not been good.
November 12th, 2019 at 6:00 PM ^
Illinois or Minnesota? Minnesota has been good this year, but it will take a bit longer to see how good it is. Illinois??
I will take Jake's only year at UM as sign that the program can improve a QBs play. We have had too much turnover. Next year will be the make or break year. Dylan is a QB who has been here for 3 years and by next year will have been in the same system for 2 years.
November 12th, 2019 at 8:52 PM ^
Seriously, we must be the Power-5 program that does the least with the most.
November 12th, 2019 at 9:01 PM ^
Texas?
November 13th, 2019 at 8:37 AM ^
UCLA wins that one by far, but I'll admit Michigan has an argument there.
November 13th, 2019 at 11:45 PM ^
Sadly, we're certainly in the discussion;
Happily, we're almost certainly not that team!
November 12th, 2019 at 5:04 PM ^
Clemson and Ohio State would do wonders for him.
Homer plug here: Bryce Perkins at UVA is very much a poor man's Devin. Gardner would've looked way, way better in that offense than in the one he ran. (That said, UVA doesn't have the downfield threat at receiver that would unlock his potential to the fullest.)
November 12th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
Seems to my untrained eye that Devin Gardner with a solid OL and RB is Justin Fields.
November 12th, 2019 at 7:29 PM ^
IIRC, both were the #1 Dual Threat QBs in the nation in their recruiting class.
November 12th, 2019 at 11:12 PM ^
Gardner was a QB (not ATH) and #5 in the nation.
November 13th, 2019 at 8:51 AM ^
That's partially true. ESPN (regarded as the worst service) had as a QB and #5.
However...
- Rivals had him as a dual-threat QB and #1 at the position.
- 247 also had him as a dual-threat QB and #2 at the position.
November 13th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
Thanks!
I stand corrected; check em next time before I post.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
Yeah. Gardner is one of my favorite players. He was a great athlete and a great kid in a completely f*cked up situation. I know people have frustrations with Harbaugh but if Gardner had come in in '15 it would be fun to see him today; maybe he wouldn't get used perfectly but I bet he would be in 1000% better situation.
And on top of it all, from what I've read he's been nothing but pure class. Smart; he had his Masters before he got out of here. He knew how bad it was but has had nothing but good things to say about the University. Just a great representative of the university.
November 12th, 2019 at 5:37 PM ^
He was one of my favorites too, and runs away with Brian's comparison. How many players have we had play their very best in the biggest games since 2000? Not many, and Gardner was one of them. He nearly willed us to a victory over OSU with a mashed foot and powder for ribs.
November 12th, 2019 at 6:17 PM ^
Yep. He's my favorite Michigan player of all time just because of his composure in the face of adversity.
November 12th, 2019 at 9:04 PM ^
I like his weekly segments on WTKA. Very informative and smooth
November 13th, 2019 at 8:38 AM ^
Devin was great, he was a talented player, a hit in the community, and a great program ambassador. It would have been awesome to see him with a real coaching staff.
November 12th, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
Probably THE best physical talent ever at Michigan and a great attitude mentally. He's the biggest tragedy of the Dark Ages.
November 12th, 2019 at 6:45 PM ^
Devin Gardner had the upside of RG3 or Lamar Jackson. I will remain convinced of that forever, and blame Hoke/Borges for him not being a 1st round pick.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
This was a solid group of questions.
That last one, in particular, was good. In my opinion, it all comes down to CPs goals. If he wants to continue moving up the ranks and swing for those dolla-dolla bills as a top-end DC somewhere, he's probably going to have to take a financial side step or back step.
Then again, some people are more than happy to grind out a meager existence making a measly 500k while praying to (enter your divinity here) that their kid is an athlete and gets a scholarship somewhere.
So it goes.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
Brown won't coach here forever. Chris might be Michigan's DC in five years, in which case he might be Michigan's HC in ten years if he proves out as the DC.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
Beat me to it.
November 12th, 2019 at 5:00 PM ^
Exactly what I was going to say. Don Brown is the man, but he's getting up there in age for a CFB coach, I'd say he's got another 5 years max and I can definitely see Partridge taking over as DC when Brown retires. Would be great as he not only is very sharp, but having studied under Brown for maybe 8 years at that point there should be a large amount of carry over in scheme and verbage, so very little transition cost. It's a win-win for everyone if he can be a bit patient.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
Gardner was a Heisman finalist playing for a good coach. I don't know if he would have done anything in the NFL, but Hoke cost him at least a decent NFL rookie contract. It's very sad.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
Now I'm intrigued by the thought that Partridge may be the DC in waiting whenever Don Brown inevitably retires...
November 12th, 2019 at 3:15 PM ^
100% agree on Gardner. Still pisses me off.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^
603 yard against OSU and we lost the damn game. That's some Big 12 shit right there.
November 12th, 2019 at 4:03 PM ^
Keep in mind that was Greg Mattison calling the D against a good spread offense.
I hope Harbaugh and Gattis have that film.
November 12th, 2019 at 5:39 PM ^
I'll be pissed if Harbaugh and Gattis haven't already dialed up some great blitz beaters on 3rd and long for the game. Mattison is gonna blitz on every single one of them, he can't help himself.
November 12th, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^
Urban's offense wasn't complex. Their 2013 team was anchored by Braxton Smith and Carlos Hyde - perfect power spread guys. The two of them rushed for a combined 350+ yards in that game.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:30 PM ^
I'm struggling to see why anybody would take on a Rutgers coaching job. I mean, yeah ... if they offered a literal truckload of money it might be worth the humiliation, but otherwise there's almost no upside, while there's a considerable amount of downside. Can a promising coach take on the Rutgers job, fail spectacularly (as most will), and recover? I'm skeptical. Perhaps a decade or two ago, but I'm sensing programs are more risk averse now and won't take damaged goods.
November 12th, 2019 at 4:00 PM ^
The fact that they are in the B1G East makes it an extremely difficult job.
What I might do is try to be Army.
November 13th, 2019 at 8:42 AM ^
It depends, if you're getting a little up there in age, do you take the gig and the money? Get a HC position under your belt, then take a year off and then go for a head coaching job at a MAC-level school and basically use that experience for nearly endless job security at a place with lower expectations as long as you deliver and don't seem to be using the program as a stepping stone.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^
Heard Gardner on the radio a couple of times and he impressed me. Not sure what his real job is, but I'd like to see him get a shot at an expanded role commentating. If for no other reason, but to help atone for past sins against him. One of my all time favs.
I know it was controversial, but also thought it was cool that he wore 98 to finish out his Michigan career.
November 12th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^
Me and my avatar agree
November 12th, 2019 at 5:18 PM ^
I follow him on Instagram and he recently joined Fox Sports Detroit.
November 12th, 2019 at 6:05 PM ^
Is he still playing in Japan any?
November 12th, 2019 at 11:40 PM ^
Came here to say this. Devin apparenty just did his first stint as a color commentator for Fox Sports Detroit this weekend in the Ferris State vs. Grand Valley State game:
https://www.instagram.com/tv/B4tWjcMA60B/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
November 12th, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
As for Navarre: he is the most accomplished college QB being considered but his near-total lack of mobility makes him a poor fit for modern college offenses.
Question - is it now harder to win with a QB like that now than it was in 2003? If so, it is that defensive coaching has gotten much more sophisticated, or something else?
November 12th, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
I'm not knowledgeable enough to know for sure how Navarre would be today; but he's one of my favorites. All he did was throw for a ton of yards and take shit from people.
He also has one of the best nick names ever. "The Torso".
November 12th, 2019 at 11:45 PM ^
All he did was throw for a ton of yards and throw into the backs of offensive linemen and the hands of defensive linemen. Neg away, but he was bad.
November 14th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
The stats would disagree. Was he a world beater? No, but a very good B1G QB in the early 2000's.
November 13th, 2019 at 12:18 AM ^
I never heard that nickname for Navarre. But I have to agree that it fits him. The dude was all of 6'6" but his legs were about 2'6" tall.
November 12th, 2019 at 4:06 PM ^
A QB like that significantly reduces what you can do on offense. No RPOs (at least where the QB is a running threat), no zone read, option, etc. Unless you have an Andrew Luck type passer and a great pass protecting Oline, it would be much more difficult to win.
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