transition

It's a hybrid post today due to time constraints: in addition to the generally packed hoops schedule, your author is getting his first dose of the vaccine later this afternoon. First, a preview of the WBB Sweet Sixteen matchup with mighty Baylor; then, a look at how transition defense could determine the MBB Sweet Sixteen matchup with Florida State.

Preview: Baylor

THE OVERVIEW

This is another measuring stick game. Michigan has already cemented 2020-21 as the program's best season ever by reaching the program's first Sweet Sixteen and beating Tennessee to get there. If they can stay competitive with Baylor, a team that's made eight of the last ten Elite Eights and won three NCAA titles since 2005, including the most recent one in 2019—well, yeah, that'd be a massive step.

These programs have faced off once before when the Bears cruised to an 80-58 second-round NCAA Tournament win in 2018. While Michigan has closed the gap and won't have to play in Waco this time, that's a big gap. FiveThirtyEight gives Baylor a 90% chance at the win while Her Hoop Stats puts their chances at 84%.

THE US

Starting point guard Amy Dilk didn't make the trip to San Antonio last weekend because of a "medical issue" that we didn't receive any further details on after Michigan advanced. The Michigan Daily's Abbie Telgenhof writes that it's "unclear" if Dilk will be able to rejoin the team this weekend. In her place, Leigha Brown has taken on more of the lead playmaking responsibilities while Danielle Rauch has brought high energy and pesky defense filling the fifth spot in the starting lineup.

THE THEM

While Baylor is a two-seed, Her Hoop Stats has them as the #3 team based on adjusted efficiency margin, and they looked like a national title contender while pasting seven-seed Virginia Tech 90-48 (gulp) in the second round.

The Bears play bully-ball on both ends of the floor. No team in the country scores a lower percentage of its points on three-pointers, they make 52% of their twos (17th nationally), and rebound 46%(!!!) of their misses (2nd). Their defense ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted efficiency, first in 2FG% and eFG% allowed, fifth in rebounding rate, fifth in block rate, and tenth in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.

A quick rundown of the main players:

• 6'2 junior forward NaLyssa Smith won Big 12 Player of the Year, averaging 18 points on 55% shooting, nine rebounds (three offensive), and about an assist, block, and steal apiece. She's a force on the interior despite being merely average in post-up offense because she's remarkably productive on putbacks, cuts, and in transition.
• 5'6 senior guard Moon Ursin is the team's primary three-point threat and a fantastic all-around player. The all-conference second-teamer is excellent at running the pick-and-roll and posts remarkable rebounding numbers on both ends given her height. She also made the Big 12 all-defense team.
• Ursin isn't the most decorated defender in Baylor's backcourt because of 6'2 senior DiDi Richards, a versatile big guard who's made three straight all-defense teams and was one of two unanimous selections this season. Richards is a pass-first offensive player who leads the team in assists. She's at her best operating as a pick-and-roll ballhandler; she hasn't attempted a three all year, so she's not spacing the floor when the ball isn't in her hands.
• 6'3 junior center Queen Egbo is the main paint intimidator on an intimidating team. She averages 11 points with solid post-up efficiency, pulls down three of her nine boards on offense, blocks two shots, and even adds a steal per game. Her backup, freshman Hannah Gusters, is 6'5 and an effective inside scorer.
• 5'9 junior Trinity Oliver is the quiet offensive player who's out there for defense. While Oliver starts, she gets the slightly lesser split of a relatively even platoon with grad transfer guard Dijonai Carrington, who's second on the team in scoring and won the Big 12's sixth player award. Carrington is a volume scorer, though not the sharpest outside shooter, and she grabs two steals a game on the other end.

Head coach Kim Mulkey can reach deeper into her bench if needed.

It's going to be difficult for Michigan to win this game the way they normally do—by winning the paint battle and the boards. They probably need to have one of their best outside shooting performances, at minimum, to hang in this one.

The Wolverines also need to take care of the ball; both teams to upset Baylor—Arkansas and Iowa State—both held the Bears to seven steals or fewer and kept their turnover total relatively low. That's critical both for scraping points together and keeping BU out of transition. Naz Hillmon drawing some early fouls on Egbo could also change the course of the game. While Gusters is very tall, Egbo is by far Baylor's best rim protector.

Michigan has a puncher's chance. That's a lot more than you could say when these programs played in 2018.

[Hit THE JUMP for a look at Florida State's reliance on transition offense.]

Podcast apologies. I had a family issue and Ace is dealing with a severe allergic reaction, so there's no podcast today. Back at it next week. Silver lining: text content will be novel instead of also on the podcast.

The whiplash game. An alien observer given an oversized baseball hat, trench coat, inconspicuous sunglasses, and tickets to Michigan's two most recent basketball games must think he watched two different sports. One is a game of furrowed brows and vicious close-quarters fighting in which shots are precious and points even more so. The second is superficially similar to the first, but apparently has dozens of subtle rule changes that make it impossible to defend anything. Also your worth as a player is directly correlated with the size of your eyebrows.

I wonder if there's ever been a bigger game-to-game swing in Michigan's offense than going from 0.65 PPP to 1.39. If it's been exceeded it's not by much.

ope just gonna grab this from you for a sec [Campredon]

Johns: hello. One game after I asserted Michigan hadn't changed anything from John Beilein's OREB approach Brandon Johns swoops in for five OREBs and Michigan grabs 44% of its rare misses. Johns also swished a couple corner threes en route to 12 points on seven shot equivalents. Also he had a nice assist to Davis.

That's a breakout performance, and now we're waiting to see if that lasts. It prompted an Athletic article from Brendan Quinn detailing Johns's confidence issues:

“It was a huge problem,” Johns said Friday night, arms folded, standing in the Crisler Center lobby. “It was kind of heartbreaking because people would say how good I am, but I just didn’t see it. I never saw it. I never believed in myself like that.”

When it comes to former top-50 recruits such as Johns, the issue usually comes from the opposite direction. They’re convinced they’re good and need to be broken down. Johns, after a freshman year spent lost in a playbook, confused on the floor and fledgling outside the rotation, was the converse. The picture didn’t fit the frame. He needed to be reminded of who he is and what he can do. He needed to be reminded that he’s 6 feet, 8 inches and 235 pounds of potential. He needed to be told that he’s an elite athlete who can do things others can only dream of.

Johns doesn't have to do a lot more than bring a Mitch McGary vibe and hit open shots to make a big difference as Michigan's primary bench guy at the 3 and 4.

[After THE JUMP: it's raining points]

2/18/19 – Michigan 65, Maryland 52 – 23-3, 12-3 Big Ten

A year ago Ace and I had a disagreement about Zavier Simpson in which I asserted he'd probably never be a 20% usage guy. A year later I'm technically, barely correct because of rounding; Ace is spiritually and functionally correct. Simpson is simultaneously a 19.4 usage guy with a meh 106 ORTG and the source of panicked consternation whenever he's not on the court.

In my defense I did not foresee Simpson bringing the skyhook back, because I am not insane.