three pointers are a little out of control

[David Wilcomes]
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65

Penn State 83, Michigan 61
Alex.Drain • January 29, 2023 • 2:15pm

As a general rule in college basketball, it's never a good sign when reporters are tweeting about what the worst defensive performance in the KenPom era from your team is, with the implication that the game unfolding has a chance to statistically set the new record. That's what happened today for Michigan Men's Basketball in State College against Penn State, as a barrage of Nittany Lion three pointers had UMHoops' Dylan Burkhardt reminding us that Michigan's defensive results were currently worse than the previous record for the KenPom era, a 1.59 PPP against defeat at UCLA years ago. It was that sort of game. Despite being close for ~16 minutes, Penn State unleashed a nuclear arsenal of perimeter shooting to blow Michigan right out of the water over a ~10 minute stretch from the late first half to the early second. The lead stretched above 30 and it was never close again. 

Despite the disastrous final score, the game didn't start terribly for the Maize & Blue. They welcomed Jett Howard back to the lineup and he showed he wasn't feeling any worse for wear on the offensive end. Jett had 13 of Michigan's first 17 points on 5/5 shooting, helping Michigan keep pace with a hot PSU team, whose early offensive performance foreshadowed later results. Early on it was matchup nightmare Jalen Pickett, who did damage against Michigan the first time these two teams played, driving offense for the home squad. When Pickett converted on an and-one, he had 17 of PSU's 26 points, doing so on a sizzling 7/8 shooting. 

The score at that point was 26-19, a lead that would grow to eight (29-21) a few moments later when a Myles Dread shot clock heave went down from beyond the arc. Yet that wasn't the moment that the game spiraled. Joey Baker's jumper went down, Hunter Dickinson connected on a hook shot, and a Jett Howard jumper trimmed the lead back down. When Howard made another three, he was up to 18 points on the afternoon, and the score sat at 31-30 in favor of the Nittany Lions. There was 4:34 left in the first half and that's the moment when a seemingly competitive game turned into a potentially historic blowout in the history of head-to-head matchups between these two squads. 

[David Wilcomes]

What happened? To start, Penn State went through one of those "can't-miss" periods on offense. They held Michigan scoreless on offense for a couple minutes and during that period, they hit a three pointer on five straight possessions. It was simple: get a stop, go up the court, get a decent look from three, swish. Repeat 5x. Before you could blink, it was a 15-0 PSU run and the crowd inside the Bryce Jordan Center was raucous. Hunter Dickinson turned it over, and it led to an and-one on the fast-break for PSU's Andrew Funk. Kobe Bufkin's jumper just before the expiration of the first half mercifully ended an 18-0 Penn State run over ~four minutes of game time, but the damage was long since done. The score sat 49-32 PSU at the half. 

At halftime, Penn State was scoring at a scalding 1.68 PPP clip, which is what conjured discussions about the all-time worst Michigan defensive efforts. They shot 19/31 from the floor (61.3%) and 9/17 from three (52.9%), while Pickett was their leading scorer with 17 (Funk had 14). They had just two turnovers and with four OREBs, that represented a 42% OREB percentage. There is no way to describe this other than disaster for the Wolverines. Michigan was adequate on offense, 45% from the field and 31% from three, but it was really a one-man show: Jett's 18 towered over everyone else (Bufkin was second with 6). Not good enough to keep pace with what was going on at the other end. 

Michigan was not totally out of it at halftime, though it was going to take a hell of an effort in the second half to make it truly competitive. However, very quickly into the second half it became clear that said hell of an effort was not going to materialize and the Wolverines were indeed totally out of it. In an ominous sign, PSU swished their first three point attempt of the half, followed by a Michigan miss. Fast forward a couple minutes and the Nittany Lions nailed another triple and Juwan Howard called a timeout, less than three minutes into the second half. The margin was now 57-34 and the timeout did little to stop the bleeding. PSU stripped Michigan of the ball out of the timeout and Seth Lundy drilled a three. 60-34. 

[David Wilcomes]

Terrance Williams finally got Michigan a score but back came Penn State. Lundy made a layup and later would hit a pair of free throws to push the lead all the way up to 28. Michigan's defense started to hang in there better than they had previously, but the offense had gone ice cold. Jett Howard was starting to cool off and the same trends from the first half were there: if Jett wasn't scoring, not much was going on for the Michigan offense. They did nothing meaningful to whittle away the lead over the next 4 or 5 minutes and a quick spurt from Jalen Pickett around the halfway mark of the second half shoved the lead to an astronomical 32 points, 73-41. 

This was around the point when your author started writing, because the outcome was now decided. The last ten minutes were merely performative efforts, playing out the remaining time so the game would end and Michigan could start licking their wounds on the plane ride home. As is typically the case in KenPom Time, the team in a massive hole trims the margin down and Michigan did that, albeit very slowly. Isaiah Barnes, Will Tschetter, and Cooper Smith(!) got minutes in the closing stretch of the game and when the final horn sounded, Penn State had an 83-61 victory. 

[David Wilcomes]

Michigan ended up avoiding setting the record for the school's worst PPP defensive effort (PSU ended at "only" 1.34), but they did set the record for the largest margin of defeat against Penn State, surpassing an 18 point loss in 1999. It was a game to forget in every sense of the phrase, with few bright spots besides Jett Howard's first half. The next highest scorer was Bufkin with 8. The team shot 42.4% from the floor, under 30% from three, went 5/8 at the line, turned it over eight times, and every starter clocked in with a +/- of at least -21. Oof. 

PSU's numbers are not as terrifying because of the cold spell to end the game, missing their last nine threes in a reversion to the mean, yet they still shot 43.3% from three on 30 attempts. Pickett led the way with a dazzling 25 points, 8 boards, and 8 assists performance, followed by Lundy with 22 and Andrew Funk with 19, both of whom were 4/9 from beyond the arc. A burn the tape sort of game for Juwan Howard's crew. 

Michigan is now 5-5 in conference play halfway through the B1G slate, having lost two in a row. They're also now 11-10 on the season. They kick off February with a game against Northwestern on Thursday in Evanston. Michigan defeated the Wildcats in their first meeting, but going on the road this time will not be nearly as easy. That game is scheduled for 7:00 PM EST and will be broadcast on ESPN2. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

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Beilein demonstrates my facial expression if Indiana hires him [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
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Unverified Voracity Is Changing John Beilein's Phone Number
Brian • March 16, 2021 • 12:24pm

Welp. Wouldn't bank on a Livers return:

I'm trying to remember the last time Michigan went into the postseason with a significant injury. A meaningful one: not having Devin Gardner for the Oh God Tyler Lockett Bowl doesn't count. I guess Jabrill Peppers versus Florida State. Mitch McGary in 2014 sort of counts but he'd been out for a long time and Michigan was still really good.

Anyway, having the chair pulled out like this sucks.

this tweet: lol lol lol lolllllllllll

Stay away from basketball dad. The Minnesota and Indiana jobs just opened and I swear they're really going to chase me into the ocean this time if this dread prophecy is fulfilled:

Thankfully, early vibes don't seem to be pointing in this direction. Beilein did draw mention on Seth Davis's candidate list—was in fact his pick for the job—but it sounds like he's just guessing. Beilein was omitted from David Cobb's, and it doesn't seem like the fanbase is overly enthusiastic about a guy who would necessarily be a stopgap since he's 68.

On the other hand, some of these Indiana names are downright preposterous. Davis listed Scott Drew and Nate Oats, as did Inside The Hall. Oats already shot that idea down. Drew has spent 18 years at Baylor, which stuck with him through a 12-52 conference record in his first four years, and has finally turned the Bears into an outright power with what would have been back-to-back one seeds if last year's tournament happened. ITH did not list a singe mid-major head coach, instead focusing on two guys above and further extreme longshots (Eric Mussleman two years in at Arkansas, Oregon's Dana Altman)… mostly.

The exception? MSU assistant Dane Fife. This would be amazing. MSU fans want to run Fife out of town on a rail because they blame him for having Thomas Kithier and Foster Loyer on the roster instead of large, athletic persons. Fife is a former Indiana player, FWIW, but man there's no in-between here. Porter Moser now seems like a solid idea! Try that!

[After THE JUMP: even more Michigan connections to Big Ten coaching searches]

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