significant digits

On the basis of one somewhat and one very weird game, how would you revise the assumptions made in 2019 5Q/5A? Hopefully the answer is not at all, but … ugh.

-Dirk

I don't think anything about the defense has changed significantly. MTSU had 200 yards on an all-perimeter gameplan before Backup Events, and Army is a service academy triple option. If anything I think the situation there feels significantly better than it did preseason:

• Uche looks like a Winovich-level dude and seems set to be a full time performer going forward.
• The Ambry Thomas colitis scare is over.
• Jordan Glasgow grabbed the WLB job and looks like a player.
• Aidan Hutchinson is going from potential star to star.

The downers aren't downers at all if Michigan gets Dwumfour and Jeter back from injury. We knew Ben Mason wasn't going to be ready to be at DT. The one thing that is a bit concerning is the lack of immediate impact from Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith, and Uche might provide a way around that.

Offense… well. Uh. Missing DPJ and Runyan plus having a clearly dinged Patterson is a drag. But Patterson's main issue this season has been his decision-making, and that was his issue last season. If that isn't tracking towards an improvement for whatever reason (transition costs, that's just his ceiling) Michigan's not going to approach our optimistic preseason takes.

One thing that's probably making our offense takes more negative than they should be: fumbles. Michigan lost three all of last year. They've lost five already this year. They were probably due for an increase just as they regress towards the mean, but that's absurd.

Offense is stock down, but not as catastrophically as a lot of people seem to think.

[After THE JUMP: positive questions that reflect a faith Michigan will right the hahah no just more BPONE]