rpo

9/10/2022 – Michigan 56, Hawaii 10 – 2-0

There's a certain point where you're just unreasonably invested in some guy making a simple throw against a very bad team. JJ McCarthy rolled out on his second drive and had Erick All in the flat. Hawaii's safety was flying up at McCarthy, because McCarthy ran as much as he passed in Michigan's opener. All was open, and all McCarthy had to do was not screw up an easy play.

He did not. He flipped the ball out to All, who picked up a first down. Hooray.

I mean, what else was left? He'd just thrown a (nearly) in-stride bomb. As soon as he came in against Colorado State he ran for a touchdown, juking a safety along the way. He throws outs on a line, with velocity you can hear. He is a wide array of talents in one package. And so then there's just one thing left: don't be weird. Please, please, please don't be weird.

Don't be really good at the hard things and turf every screen. Don't have exactly one velocity everything is thrown at. Don't spend most plays bugging out of clean pockets. Don't call all your offensive linemen "Scooter 1," "Scooter 2," and so forth and so on. Don't watch defensive ends tear hell for leather at the running back and hand it off anyway. Don't throw the ball short, unless you should. When you throw the ball long, either throw it to open guys or give your guys a chance even if they're covered. Check into all the right plays. Have a mind like a diamond and eyes that burn like cigarettes.

That sort of thing.

You know, just be MechaGodzilla, the quarterback. Be instantly great, three standard deviations above the mean. Don't be one of those weird guys in the middle of the bell curve. Just throw the ball to the tight end so he can run. And do it every time, without variation, unless the defense requires you to vary. As they inevitably will.

Be perfect. Be fucking perfect. Be an unassailable tower of precision and might. Do everything right and nothing wrong and if you do something wrong fix it immediately. Make cacio e pepe without the sauce breaking.

And JJ McCarthy said "…ok"?

[Barron]

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This is the point where you dump out the caveats because someone in the comments is going to go "actually it was just Hawaii," but no, not this time. Go ahead, guy in comments. I acknowledge that other teams aren't going to accidentally run zero coverage on first and ten. I acknowledge that Roman Wilson is seven times faster than any Rainbow Warrior. Now you acknowledge, buddy. You sit there and say "holy shit" softly to yourself, just once.

Yeah, that feels real good.

I HAVE SEEN THINGS BUDDY

I have seen John O'Korn come in against Purdue and look like GOD HIMSELF. I have seen the NUMBER ONE DEFENSE IN AMERICA give up sixty septillion points to Ohio State crossing routes. I HAVE SEEN A SHIMMERING IN THE DISTANCE THAT SLOWLY RESOLVES ITSELF INTO A QUARTERBACK OF SUCH UTTER PERFECTION HE BEATS NOTRE DAME'S HEAD IN DESPITE SPOTTING THEM A VERY SILLY TOUCHDOWN AND HAVING NO OFFENSIVE LINE AT ALL. I have seen the ending of several LSU games.

I have perceived! Many times! I have built an entire persona around perceiving and relating things!

I'm ready. I am ready to make that call, the call no one ever mentions unless you're wrong and then every time you breathe a 16-year-old Michigan State fan puts a screenshot of it on your forehead. Well, screw you, @oldtakesexposed. I ain't afraid of you.

JJ McCarthy is it.

I'm in. I'm sold. He's never going to throw an interception. He's going to average 15 yards an attempt. He is going to slip out of a sack by detaching one of his arms and regrow it at halftime. He's going to NYC next year. Hell, maybe this year. Whatever. Make an outlandish prediction. I endorse it. JJ McCarthy is going to make Nick Saban quit football. He's going to invent shoes. He's gonna make Pluto a planet again. It's all happening.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

touchdown [Patrick Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 JJ McCarthy. If Ronnie Bell had caught that slant and picked up 11 yards—and he was probably getting at least 20—McCarthy would have averaged 20 YPA. Also he ran the ball once for 16 yards. That'll do, pig. That'll do.

#2 Blake Corum. Like last week, Corum is sort of a default pick in a game where almost nobody got to do a lof of stuff. On the other hand, nearly 10 YPC on nine carries will do nicely.

#3(t) Mazi Smith, Kris Jenkins, Mike Morris. Folks, if you set aside RJ Moten's four Michigan's leading tacklers in this game were Caden Kolesar, Micah Pollard, Deuce Spurlock, Jaydon Hood, and Kenneth Grant. My kingdom for a game competitive enough that someone can actually earn a spot for doing more than one thing. Most of the front gets this because Hawaii's ground game was picking one guy to double and losing to the other two guys every time. Two points each to marginally distinguish them from the HMs.

Honorable mention: Ronnie Bell had a drop and a fumble that knocked him down here but also caught six balls. Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson both hit multiple big plays. Donovan Edwards had a personal touchdown drive. Rayshaun Benny and Mason Graham looked more or less like starters. Makari Paige nearly had an INT and had a nice PBU.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

10: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU, T3 Hawaii), Blake Corum (#2 CSU, #2 Hawaii)
8: JJ McCarthy (#1 Hawaii)
3: Junior Colson (#3 CSU)
2: Mike Morris (T3 Hawaii), Kris Jenkins (T3 Hawaii), Ronnie Bell (HM CSU, HM Hawaii), Roman Wilson (HM CSU, HM Hawaii),
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Eyabi Anoma (HM CSU), Derrick Moore (HM CSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU), Rod Moore (HM CSU), Makari Paige (HM Hawaii), Rayshaun Benny (HM Hawaii), Mason Graham (HM Hawaii), Cornelius Johnson (HM Hawaii), Donovan Edwards (HM Hawaii).

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

McCarthy rips the ball out of a mesh point and fires a laser to Ronnie Bell for an RPO touchdown.

Honorable mention: Ten of McCarthy's eleven other throws. Davis Warren fires an eyepopping dart to Max Bredeson. Mike Morris busts through for a sack.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

People boo Cade McNamara. WTF.

Honorable mention: Rain delay. Hawaii rushing touchdown looks pretty bad for third stringers.

FORMATION NOTES: I've started some Serious Abbreviations about 10 years too late. How many times have I uselessly typed "shot" before "gun"? I don't know. No more. Shotgun is now Gun. "Trips Twin TE"…

two WR to one side, two TEs on the same side

is now TTE. "Trips Tight Bunch"…

three WR/TEs lined up in a bunch attached to the LOS

…is now TTB.

Anyway. M moved from their 1 RB, 1 TE stuff to a lot more 2TE or TE+Mason stuff in the second half, which radically improved the run game as the DTs shooting into the backfield were no longer that relevant.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: McNamara replaced Milton after five drives and went the rest of the way. OL saw Vastardis replaced by Carpenter at C, reputedly because of injury. With the starting OTs still out this went Barnhart/Filiaga/Carpenter/Zinter/Stueber. At TE Eubanks got much of the early action but severe blocking issues saw All and Schoonmaker more prominent later.

WR and RB were the same mix they've been, with a lot of guys getting snaps. The main exception was Haskins getting 25 carries and seemingly establishing himself as RB1.

[After THE JUMP: gonna be a lot of yelling at me about QB stuff, probably

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If you saw any highlights of Minnesota last year it was probably a long bomb to Rashod Bateman, or a 14-yard slant to Tyler Johnson. You probably kenned along the way that Tanner Morgan is one of the most efficient passers in the conference, with 10 YPC and a fantastic TD/INT ratio. It might surprise you to learn, then, that Minnesota last year was one of the most run-heavy teams with the most simplistic passing games in the country.

Mathlete and I recreated a lot of advanced stats over the offseason and Minnesota came out 13th in run rate and 14th in standard down run rate. They were also 48th in OL yards, 44th in run efficiency, and way down at 112th in run explosiveness, opposite a passing game that was 10th in efficiency and 5th in explosiveness. Of note they were also 98th in sack rate.

Usually that's the profile of a MANBALL team--an Iowa or Carr-era Michigan that runs until they see 8-man boxes and only then unleash their NFL arms and receivers. In PJ Fleck's case, however, it's not him choosing to run the ball but his opponents.

Minnesota's RPO offense is all about stretching linebackers' priorities and daring them to cheat towards one or the other. They have a big offensive line that doesn't pass protect very well, so the entire (effective) passing game is about throwing to covered receivers with just a little bit of leverage. That kind of passing offense works so long as the guy is truly in man and doesn't have help inside.

To take care of the help, they run RPOs. Lots of them. So much of them that you can almost force them into running the ball all game. Then they're running the ball so much you start cheating towards it and OPE, you let Bateman or Autman-Bell loose.

[After THE JUMP: How Minnesota throws it to the same three spots on the field and gets away with it]