juwan howard can coach

3/28/2021 – Michigan 76, Florida State 58 – 23-4, 14-3 Big Ten, Elite Eight

Michigan was up 11 at halftime and Twitter was unanimous: they weren't even playing that well. Twitter cannot agree on anything.

there’s always someone on twitter arguing with no one. saying stuff like “but I was told steph curry wasn’t a good shooter”

— Mambo No. Pfizer (@killakow) June 11, 2019

Twitter cannot agree what color a dress is or whether a Vehicle Miles Traveled tax is a regressive monstrosity or a good, urbanist idea. The only things Twitter has ever agreed on are 1) a boat stuck in the Suez Canal is extremely, extremely funny, and 2) the Michigan-Florida State score did not accurately reflect how deeply Juwan Howard and friends had dunked the Seminoles into a trash can.

When Twitter's right, it's right. The boat is amazing, and FSU was deep in a trash can. After surveying all available stats this one seem like the best indicator: Michigan had 34(!) shots at the rim. They had 14 other twos. That is a crazy ratio, and honestly it felt like making 23 of those 34 at the rim was cursed. We've got Austin Davis assisting Chaundee Brown out here.

"How good are they," Bill Raftery exclaimed after that. And yeah, the impression Michigan gave off in this game was a magnificent, implacable They. Scoring was distributed. Aside from the deep bench Michigan scoring went like this: 14-14-13-12-8-6-6. Five different guys had at least two assists. Davis didn't make that roster but he only played eight minutes, so he gets a pass.

Michigan followed up a first half where they shot 33%—they weren't even playing that well—by hitting about 70% of their looks in the second half, and that conversion rate was deserved. Michigan's second half shot chart is incredible:

One bucket outside the paint, and ~2 that aren't at the rim. That is against the tallest team in America, and a team that entered the game 10th in two-point defense. Michigan assisted on 15 of 18 second half baskets. Clinic. That was a clinic.

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There is something tremendously satisfying about winning a game where it's not about hitting shots. Michigan was 6/25 away from the rim, and it did not matter because half of Michigan's possessions ended either at the rim or in free throws.

Maybe LSU was onto something with their "give Michigan all the open threes" approach. Anyone can miss an open three. Michigan just had to hit a couple fewer and it was game on. Here there was no respite. FSU's ball denial and constant switching is on the completely opposite end of the defensive spectrum and all it got the Seminoles was the above parade to the rim.

On the other end, well… FSU got a bucket at the end of the first half. It was a pick and roll that evolved into an elbow jumper off the dribble. If you remember the preview, FSU is abominable—second percentile—at jumpers off the dribble. A bad idea shot that Michigan would give FSU all day which they will hit a quarter of the time. That's a win.

The larger win was encapsulated in the TV crew's reaction. Raftery exclaimed "they ran something! They ran something!" This is not a good spot to be in. When the color commentator is shocked that you did a basketball set more than nineteen minutes into a game, and that basketball set got you a not particularly efficient shot that you're particularly horrible at, you're going to be so far down the trash can that light reaching you from the rest of the universe is noticeably redshifted.

[After THE JUMP: Big Minutes Johns]

Scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Rutgers 51, Nebraska 72
• Illinois 76, Michigan 53
• Wisconsin 69, Purdue 73
• Indiana 58, MSU 64
• Minnesota 65, PSU 84
• Northwestern 60, Maryland 55
• MSU 50, Michigan 69
• Nebraska 64, Iowa 102
• Illinois 73, OSU 68
• Indiana 58, Purdue 67
• Rutgers 77, Minnesota 70 (OT)
• Michigan 64, MSU 70
• Wisconsin 73, Iowa 77
• Nebraska 78, Northwestern 79
• PSU 66, Maryland 61

As you're probably aware, Illinois closed strong enough to whinge about Michigan ducking, uh, Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana. Purdue, meanwhile, took advantage of Ohio State's tough late-season schedule to slip past them for the #4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. On the other end, Maryland stumbled to the finish line, though they're still in good shape for an NCAA bid.

The Final Regular Season Standings

Indiana and Minnesota are missing the tournament barring miracle BTT runs. Incidentally, there are rumors that both Archie Miller and Richard Pitino will be looking for new jobs this offseason.

The Actual All-Conference Awards

Are a debacle. They will be discussed in a separate post.

[Hit THE JUMP for awards that make sense.]

Mike Smith Starts Putting It Together

increasingly dangerous [Campredon]

As opposing defenses have placed a greater emphasis on stopping Hunter Dickinson, the court has opened up for other Wolverines to step forward. The primary beneficiary has been point guard Mike Smith, who's increasing his shot attempts from beyond the arc while slicing his previously problematic turnover numbers in half.

After removing the season-opening cupcakes, the statistical comparison between early-season Smith and the version we've seen since the Minnesota loss is stark. Everything has stayed level except for missing a couple more two-pointers (almost certainly a sample size issue), attempting an extra three-pointer per 100 possessions (given his numbers, great!), and trading off an assist or two per game to cut out an equal number of turnovers, which has been a very worthwhile swap. The result is an 11-point jump in O-Rating, per Bart Torvik:

The increased attention on Dickinson has helped Smith. The more important factor, though, is his improved comfort level against the size and speed of Big Ten defenses. A lot of his turnovers earlier in the year were passes that didn't make it through the crowd.

You can see the game slowing down for him. The little hesitation move on this pick-and-roll drive forces the defense to commit before Smith makes the pass, which allows him time to make the correct read to find the right angle to get the ball through clean:

Over the full season, Smith is posting strong numbers as a pick-and-roll ballhandler when you include his passes. He’s slightly above-average as a scorer but his passing puts him in the 85th percentile overall as a P&R ballhandler anyway. If he keeps the turnovers down, the efficiency of these plays will take a substantial leap, too:

Smith has done a nice job of spreading his passes between kickouts to shooters, dumpoffs to the roll man, and quick-hitters to the occasional cutter. Finding the big man on the roll is generally the most efficient way to end a ball screen for any team—save for hitting cutters, because when that happens the other team usually fell asleep, and that happens far less often—and Michigan is no exception with Hunter Dickinson usually on the receiving end of those plays.

Only two Big Ten players, D’Mitrik Trice and Marcus Carr, have hit the roll man more than the 44 times Smith’s posted this season and neither crack a point per possession on those plays while Smith’s in elite territory at 1.23:

Smith has increasingly gone to the bounce pass, which turns his height (or lack thereof) into an asset instead of a detriment as he threads the needle between taller defenders:

His skip passes are getting through more often, too.

[Hit THE JUMP for Smith's P&R scoring and lethal transition work, plus updates on the BTT, an injury to Ayo Dosonmu, and more.]