joey baker

The 2022-23 Michigan Men's Basketball season is mercifully over after today's crushing loss to Vanderbilt in the second round of the NIT. if there's one thing you can say about this team, it's that they died as they lived, collapsing late in games and rescuing defeat from the jaws of victory. Despite playing without both Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard, the Wolverines put together a solid game, leaning on the heroics of Hunter Dickinson and Dug McDaniel to get them to an ESPN calculated win probability of 96.7% with 1:30 to go. And then? Collapse. Again. Michigan turned it over on three straight possessions, allowed Vanderbilt to score each time off turnovers, and the last chance basket to win at the buzzer didn't go down. 66-65, a 9-0 run by the Commodores in the final 58 seconds to close. 

The first half had a few distinct chapters, the extended Vanderbilt run to take a lopsided lead, the extended Michigan run to close the gap, and then the back-and-forth last few minutes leading to halftime. Michigan began with a small 5-0 lead, which was immediately followed by a 17-0(!) run for the Commodores, who threatened to blow the Wolverines right out of the building. Michigan was held scoreless for nearly six minutes, their tires spinning in the mud but not gaining any traction, while the hot shooting of Vandy forward Colin Smith built the home team's lead up. Smith made three three-pointers and a layup for 11 of Vanderbilt's 17 points during this period of time. 

Michigan snapped the drought with a tip-in shot by Terrance Williams II and from there, it was the Dug McDaniel show, as the diminutive PG willed Michigan back into the game. He converted a three point play at the FT line and then started pulling up like Steph Curry, nailing successive triples and long twos. His three with 9:21 to go in the first half tied it at 20 and when Williams made a pair of free throws a few minutes later, the Maize & Blue had the lead back. For the final five minutes of the opening half, it was a competitive game, each team answering the other and the lead for both sides never more than one score. Ezra Manjon's jumper put Vanderbilt ahead 29-28, but Dickinson's hookshot propelled Michigan to a 30-29 lead going into halftime. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

At the break, McDaniel was the hero for the Wolverines, 13 points to lead Michigan (no one else had more than six). In the second half, the hero would be Hunter Dickinson, who began to exploit his size advantage inside to dominate in the paint. The teams stayed close through the first six or so minutes of the second half, but Dickinson began to control the game and gave Michigan padding. He scored eight straight points for Michigan to put them up 49-42 and he began the half a scorching 6/6 on FGs. Neither team was shooting well from the perimeter and so Michigan's presence of a dominant post player was what was giving them a chance to build up a sizable lead. At the halfway mark, Michigan led 54-47. 

The Michigan edge stayed pretty consistent as the final quarter of the game rolled along, Michigan playing a two big lineup and Tarris Reed Jr. starting to join in the scoring from the free throw line. Joey Baker also began to heat up, the first non-McDaniel perimeter presence for Michigan to come on-line. Baker's long two (originally called a three) left the score at 61-54 with four minutes to go. Vanderbilt answered with a three by Trey Thomas via great ball movement and the Commodores came back down the floor a little later with a chance to cut it to within one, but Thomas' 3PTA was off the mark. Michigan rebounded it down and McDaniel would slice into the lane, connecting on a pretty tear-drop shot off the backboard and in. 63-57 with 2:31 to go. 

The next minute was the period where it seemed as if Juwan Howard's crew was putting the game away. McDaniel drew a charge on Jordan Wright during Vanderbilt's ensuing offensive possession and that was followed by Joey Baker coming off a screen to catch-and-shoot a long two from the free throw line... swish. 65-57 with 1:45 to go. To improve the conditions even more, Wright missed another three after Vanderbilt went back up the court, which was rebounded down by Baker with 1:32 left. This was the point when the game was seemingly over, the 96.7% win probability moment I referenced in the opener. 

[Campredon]

Vanderbilt opted to play defense and let Michigan run roughly 1/3 of the remaining time in regulation off the clock on the ensuing Wolverine offensive possession. Michigan entered the post but Dickinson missed a layup in tight, a miss that would turn out to be fateful. Quentin Millora-Brown snatched the rebound, passed to Tyrin Lawrence, who drove the lane on the Wolverines, was fouled, but made the basket and was granted what appeared to be NBA continuation (Juwan Howard was not happy). Lawrence made the free throw to complete the three point play, leaving the score at 65-60. 

Jerry Stackhouse called timeout to dial up a full-court press defense, looking to force turnovers, and it would work wonders in a way few could imagine. The first time against it, Terrance Williams II made it across the center line before coughing the rock up. After turning it over, he fouled Manjon and with Vanderbilt in the bonus, the Commodores got two quick free throws (Manjon went 2/2). 65-62 with 49 seconds left. Michigan was in a position then where in theory they could wind 30 seconds off, but again they turned it over before it could happen. McDaniel got across mid-court and was trapped by two Commodores. Dug had a timeout and the possession arrow, but decided to hurl the ball towards Williams, which went out of bounds. Vanderbilt took it down the floor and scored on a Manjon layup, 65-64 with 20 seconds left. 

At this point, the collapse was palpable. Michigan called timeout to get set up, but yet again they gacked under pressure. Hunter Dickinson tried to pass it to Williams, the ball deflected off his arms and Lawrence would quickly get a layup. 66-65 Vanderbilt, with 12 seconds left. Michigan called their final timeout, were rather discombobulated getting up floor, but McDaniel got a look in the lane on a driving attempt, which ricocheted off the mark. Dickinson tried to tip it in, also off the mark. The horn sounded, Vanderbilt had won, and Michigan had blown an eight point lead in the matter of 58 seconds to lose in regulation. You'd say it was unbelievable if you hadn't seen this sort of thing happen a half-dozen times over this season. 

Joey's face here sums up the experience of watching this team [Wilcomes]

I'm not going to do a season wrap-up, because I did that in the Rutgers BTT recap. That was the end of the season for any goals that mattered; this is the official end. The narrative has not changed. Per Zach Shaw, Michigan lost seven games this season in which ESPN deemed them as having a >80% probability of winning at some point in the second half. They lost five such games where the win probability was >87%, with today being #5. We can say that not having Bufkin or Jett Howard, two capable ballhandlers, may have prevented this specific collapse, since it would have put the ball in the hands of players besides a true freshman (McDaniel) and a player who is not much of a ballhandler (Williams) and I don't disagree. The problem is, it's hard to make excuses for the fifth collapse of this magnitude. Each individual game can be explained away by one theory or another. In the broader picture, when it keeps happening, at some point it's just who you are. I don't think any Michigan fans were terribly surprised and that tells you all you need to know about the 2022-23 edition of this squad.

In terms of statistics, Dickinson led the way for Michigan with 21 points, while McDaniel was right there with 19. Had Michigan won this game, my intro was going to be about those two starters rising to the occasion to help pull the team minus two starters to victory. Instead, their efforts were for naught. The rest of the box score looks about what you'd expect for this team minus Bufkin and Howard. Joey Baker added 11 but was 3/10 from the field (0/3 from three), while the next highest scorer was Williams with 6 (2/6 from the field). Youssef Khayat, inserted into the starting lineup for Bufkin, made a three for his only points, while Reed added 5. Jace Howard and Will Tschetter scored a combined 0 points in 27 minutes of action. 

Both teams shot 43% from the floor and and around a quarter from three (M = 25%, Vandy = 26%). Michigan's 15 TOs to Vanderbilt's 7 loomed large, especially late, as Vanderbilt owned the "points off TOs" bucket 18-11. Tyrin Lawrence led Vanderbilt in scoring with 24 (10/17 from the field). Manjon had 17 and Smith added 11, the latter's points exclusively contained to the 17-0 Vandy run in the fist half. No one else for the 'Dores had more than 6 points. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Baker back? Interesting roster development for basketball after last night's Toledo game:

We’ll see what happens,” said Baker on if he would apply for a sixth-year.“Potentially.”

“Absolutely,” he said on if he would come back to Michigan. “If I got it, I’m back here.”

Baker played a total of 18 minutes as a freshman; bizarrely these all came in late February or later. Usually this would not be grounds for a redshirt, but who knows these days. The NCAA is in its Security Guard Meme phase. It could happen.

Grimace dot emoji. Sam Vecenie's latest Big Board has Jett Howard 20th and Kobe Bufkin 24th. Hunter Dickinson is 83. No commentary on any of them, so nothing to quote. But maaan this thing where the NBA grabs Michigan players before they have their AA-type season is getting old.

The guy who did the thing, nope. DJ Turner ran a 4.27 40 at the NFL combine, which is sort of impressive:

Michigan CB DJ Turner (5-11 178)

38.5 vert
10-11 broad
4.27!!!!

Big time day.

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) March 3, 2023

The Athletic had a piece on guys who rose and fell based on said combine and DJ Turner did not come up at all. I mean… I think… he's a corner? Right? One Michigan player did show up:

A lot of tight ends had big days, including Darnell Washington, who put on a show that will only help fans of his game build a case for his value and potential as a receiver. Sam LaPorta is an all-around football player that does a lot of things well and had a great day of testing. And even a prospect like Luke Schoonmaker continues to become more interesting because he’s a tight end who has shown he plays in-line and his testing numbers hinted there might be more to tap into as a receiver.

And fair enough:

Luke Schoonmaker is a TE prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 9.75 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 26 out of 1020 TE from 1987 to 2023. https://t.co/Jd1VNkpNhF #RAS pic.twitter.com/chng7ofvKI

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 5, 2023

Ben Herbert hive grows ever stronger. Rivals has a piece on Turner and Mazi Smith moving up in draft evaluators' eyes. If Smith blows it out of the water at pro day—which is likely—he'll move up further.

[After THE JUMP: CJ Stroud and words: never again.]

Whenever a major conference team with NCAA Tournament ambitions winds up in the NIT, the first question one asks about their trajectory in the upcoming games is "how much do they care?". Do they want to be here? Or are they going through the motions? That was the question in my head as I got ready for Michigan's opening round NIT game against Toledo tonight, especially upon hearing the news that Jett Howard would miss the game with an ankle injury.

In the first half, the answer looked ambiguous, perhaps leading towards "yeah, they're mailing it in". Michigan allowed gobs of points out of the gate amid a sloppy start and ultimately trailed at the break. But the first few minutes of the second half answered the question, swinging the pendulum to "no, they want to win" as hot Michigan shooters powered the squad to an 11-0 run to start the half and from that point forward, they never relinquished the lead. It may not have been the greatest outing wire-to-wire, but good shooting and ball movement on offense mixed with solid defense after the disastrous opening resulted in a 90-80 Michigan victory over the Toledo Rockets at Crisler Center. 

Toledo came in marketed as an excellent offensive team and we saw plenty of that in the opening ten minutes of basketball. RayJ Dennis knocked down a shot on the first Toledo possession, then they forced a turnover on Will Tschetter and Ra'heim Morris finished it off with a fast-break layup. Right after that, Joey Baker turned it over and Moss converted on a nearly identical fast-break score. After Michigan finally got their first score, JT Shumate went right down the floor and hit a three. 9-2 Toledo, just 93 seconds into the game with a 4/4 shooting clip from the field. 

[Campredon]

Michigan picked up the scoring on their end of the floor, Joey Baker making a layup to begin what was a strong evening for the transfer wing playing in his (possible) final game in front of the Crisler Center crowd. Will Tschetter and Dug McDaniel threes drew Michigan within one and a few minutes later they tied it on a Baker layup, 18-18. The blistering pace of scoring didn't slow down, with the Rockets responding to the tied score by pouring in nine straight points in just over two minutes. When Dennis turned McDaniel over and scored on the ensuing layup, the Rockets took a 27-18 lead and amazingly, there were still over 11 minutes to play in the first half. At that juncture, Michigan was on pace to surrender ~120 points in regulation. 

You had to imagine things would slow down for the Rockets on offense, and they did. Michigan began to settle in defensively, something that began with a block by Terrance Williams II on a Setric Milner Jr. three pointer, which set up a fast-break layup for Hunter Dickinson. Michigan held Toledo without a field goal for roughly four minutes, a period during which they clawed back to a tie, as the pace of scoring slowed down on both sides. Kobe Bufkin's personal 7-0 run, a pair of layups and a triple, were his first points of the game and they drew Michigan to a 29-29 tie. The Wolverines finally took the lead on a Dickinson dunk, 35-33, and it seemed like the team would go into the break with a lead after Baker connected on a triple, but a Shumate answer just before the buzzer gave UT a 42-40 going into halftime. 

[Campredon]

At the break, it felt as though Michigan had begun to settle into the game after a dreadful opening. The team was shooting over 50% from the floor and exactly that mark from three, but having allowed Toledo to shoot 47% on FGs was an area for improvement. The team also needed more from Bufkin, whose aforementioned personal run were his only points of the half. Michigan, as the better team, were still favored, but the Rockets showed they weren't going away. The opening of the second frame would say a lot. 

Indeed it did, indicating that the home Wolverines wanted to take the game by the horns and make some noise in this National Invitation Tournament. The Maize & Blue came out of halftime red hot, Baker, McDaniel, and Bufkin hitting back-to-back-to-back threes on the first three Michigan possessions of the second half, with a pair of Toledo misses in between those possessions. Moss turned it over and Will Tschetter knocked down a mid-range jumper and just 2:14 into the second half, the Wolverines were ahead 51-42, almost before you could blink. 

From there, the game more or less seesawed around an equilibrium of Michigan by 5-10. Toledo occasionally strung some buckets and stops together to narrow the lead, cutting it to 61-57 and 66-63, but Michigan would respond and widen the lead back up. The score sat at 70-65 Wolverines at the under eight media timeout, eventually trimmed down to three on an AJ Edu layup, 72-69 with 6:23 to go. Michigan turned it over, and Dennis actually had a shot from three to tie it, but the shot was off the mark and that began the period where Michigan put the game away. Dickinson snagged the rebound, passed it up to Bufkin, who scored on the fast-break. They repeated the exact same formula on the next possession, Dennis miss, Dickinson rebound, fast-break layup, this time from Baker. 76-69 Michigan. 

[Campredon]

With just over five minutes to go, Toledo was in need of points. They didn't get it on their next try, though, as Dante Maddox Jr. missed a jumper and Bufkin extended the Michigan run with a silky fade-away. 78-69 Wolverines. Toledo finally snapped a three minute scoreless drought on a Setric Millner Jr. jumper, but despite forcing a couple Michigan misses, they couldn't cut into the lead... EJ Farmer missing the front-end of a one-and-one loomed large there. With 3:36 to go, Joey Baker canned yet another trey and Michigan now led by double digits, 81-71, and it was getting late for the Rockets. Millner would get an easy layup off a turnover forced by Toledo's press, but Juwan Howard promptly called timeout to instill a disciplined approach to his players. From that point on, Michigan wouldn't have much problem with the press, getting to the free throw line and making most of their attempts. UT's once-mighty offense had dried up, and time ran out on 'em. 90-80 Wolverines. 

As we suspected, this was a high-scoring affair, but when it was all said and done, the final metrics indicate a respectable defensive performance for Michigan. After getting the doors blown off early, they held Toledo to 53 points in the final 31 minutes and the Rockets' final shooting percentage was just over 40%, only 8/24 from three. Millner and Shumate led the way with 19 and 18 points for Toledo, but only four Rockets scored in double figures. As for Michigan, a scorching second half (15/23 from FG!!) powered them to 90 points, and 13/23 from three for the game ain't too shabby. Joey Baker, elevated into the starting lineup for Jett Howard, scored 21 points (5/7 from three). Bufkin came on line in the second half to lead the team with 23, while Dickinson added 19 and McDaniel had 16 (4/6 from three), with eight assists. Youssef Khayat and Jace Howard both saw the floor, although they combined for two total points. 

Michigan is now into the second round of the NIT and, as repeated a nauseating amount of times by the ESPN2 TV crew, are still perfect all-time at home in NIT games. The next round won't be at home, as 2nd-seeded Vanderbilt knocked off Yale tonight, so the Wolverines will be headed down to Nashville to take on the Commodores. That game will be either Saturday or Sunday at a time TBD. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]