[via Duke University]

Hoops Transfer Hello: Joey Baker Comment Count

Seth June 18th, 2022 at 2:45 PM

Michigan basketball has filled a major hole in its roster—one in fact that they had all of last year, but exacerbated from Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate remaining in the draft and Brandon Johns transferring. Duke forward Joey Baker announced he will join Michigan as a grad transfer, with two seasons of eligibility.

Baker was also looking at Georgia and George Washington University. In his career thus far Baker has been more or less what Michigan's been looking for—a 6'7"/206 off-the-bench shooter who can help them guard 2-4. He's not a creator and shouldn't put the ball on the floor, though Michigan shouldn't need him to. He's also coming off a hip injury that required surgery and kept him out of all but 5 minutes of last year's playoff run.

[After THE JUMP: Houstan, basically]

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Offense: Just-a-Shooter, or Should Be

image

Comparison of Baker with Michigan's 2021-'22 forwards. Circle around his jersey number represents % of minutes he was on the court, not counting injuries.

Caleb Houstan, basically, right down to the slow release from a set point close to his forehead. Baker is a career 38% from three, where he takes two-thirds of his shots, and 80% free throw shooter. Synergy has him 80th percentile as a spot-up shooter, and 85th percentile on guarded catch-and-shoot opportunities, though he's more of a stand-in-the-corner type than the kind of distance weapon you design the offense around (just 12/29 career off screens). His best season beyond the arc was the last one, when he crested 40% (30/74), coming off a disappointing 31% (16/51) in 2020-'21.

Like Houstan, his shot isn't super quick, and he was much better at home (41%) and neutral (47%) courts than away (26%). He got 71 percent of his points off assists last year, the most of anyone on the team save Just-a-Shooter Bates Jones. The difference between Baker and Houstan was the former was 96th percentile on clean looks and transition. In other words Duke treated him mostly as a floor-spacer in the half-court, but he was money at trailing on transition, and burying the open opportunities that provided.

Also like Houstan, he will put the ball on the ground, will convert when there's enough space or in transition, and will probably cough it up if the defense recovers or contests.

Not a creator

Not that Michigan needs a secondary or even tertiary ballhandler, but Joey Baker's not going to be it. Even with his low usage at Duke, he was turnover-prone; his TO rate dropped 10 points between 2020-'21 and last season, but only because the competition level dropped; he had a 20% TO rate in the ACC, and 27% TO rate vs Tier A competition. That was all while maintaining a tiny assist rate.

Defensive Wing

Baker has the length to be an effective defender, but not the athleticism to be an impact one. He's been listed as tall as 6'8" (in shoes) with a 6'9" wingspan, however that hip injury could sap his quickness, which was already just okay. Synergy had him rated "Average" overall, and "Poor" in isolation.

Young for a Fifth-Year

Despite starting his career in the 2018-'19 class, Baker is just a few months older than Hunter Dickinson, having reclassified from 2019 to join Duke's 2018 class. Baker played in four games his freshman year, preserving a redshirt, and played a quarter of Duke's minutes thereafter as a three-and-D guy off the bench. Like everyone else, he has a COVID shirt for 2020-'21, thus Jr/5th eligibility for 2022-'23.

Side note: When can we start pushing the people who make rosters to use this same sensible notation for eligibility/year in school?

Projection based on flimsy evidence:

Off-the-bench just-a-shooter. Baker doesn't upset the projected post-draft starting lineup—he's not athletic enough to challenge the guards, few of them as may be, and probably wouldn't be as effective as Jett Howard at the three or Terrance Williams II at the four (Ace's The Bucket Problem had a great article the other day($) on how TWII shined there last year). Baker should however get plenty of opportunities to be on the floor, backing up the true freshman Howard and spelling Williams, and giving redshirt freshmen Isaiah Barnes and Will Tschetter more time to develop.

Outlook for the roster:

Michigan had too many forwards last year but three was too many to lose, and finding a guy who can more or less recreate what they got out of Caleb Houstan last year off the bench is a big deal. I won't say replacing the minutes of Houstan/Diabate/Johns with Jett/TWII/Baker is going to be a net improvement, but you could do a lot worse than replacing two draft picks and a veteran with the coach's freshman son, last year's 6th man, and a Duke backup.

Baker's transfer almost certainly closes the door on the chance Michigan takes another look at Emoni Bates. I've maintained Michigan was wary of the people around Bates, that rumors of interest were coming mostly from people talking to the Bates camp, and things were only likely to get serious if they struck out on their other targets. Michigan was interested in Northwestern's Pete Nance (committed to UNC), and Illinois transfer Jacob Grandison, who's replacing Baker at Duke.

The Wolverines still have an open scholarship to find help at guard, where they still only have transfer Jaelin Llewellyn, sophomore wild card Kobe Bufkin, and true freshman Dug McDaniel (unless Barnes can play the two). I don't know whom they're targeting there.

Comments

Blue Vet

June 18th, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^

A TOTALLY neutral observation, and not homer-ish at all: 

Isn't it remarkable how much better all players look in Michigan gear than in other school uniforms?

blueboy

June 18th, 2022 at 4:18 PM ^

Have we been linked to any other transfer guards? Not as far as I can tell.

 

I wonder if the plan is to use play 3 wings with a pg a lot nba style with Jett/baker/twill on the floor at the same time 

 

Edit: I think the Youssef pursuit all but confirms this. Expecting to see a lot of lengthy 3-wing lineups. Yeah maybe Baker/Twill/Howard don’t have ideal quickness for the 2 but with all that size and shooting out there there good things will happen.

blue in dc

June 18th, 2022 at 5:43 PM ^

I’d say:

Dickinson at the 5 is the only sure fire thing about this roster

Llewellyn getting most of the minutes at the 1 and Howard starting are also almost certain.

While Bufkin and Twill likely round out the top five, there is room for some surprises.  If that is the top 5, Williams has many pounds on Howard and seems much more likely to play the 4.   We’ve got multiple guys with some positional flexibility and if Barnes, Tschetter or Baker surprises, we could see a number of players spend time at the two.

I would pencil in Dickinson, Llewellyn and Howard for 30 minutes a game, but could imagine worlds where any of Bufkin, Twiill, Baker, Barnes, Tschetter or a surprise additional scholarship player are getting 20+ minutes a game.   If someone other than Bufkin or Twill steps up, my guess is that Bufkin is the guy losing minutes.

TrueBlue2003

June 21st, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^

I think you're probably right about Howard playing 30 min a game, but I also think Twill getting 30 min a game at the 4 is an even better bet.  Who else is going to play there?

The only way he didn't play 30 min at the four is if Jett plays the four and Baker the three.  But probably not as good as the chance that Jett and Twill are your starting forwards that play 30 min a game with Baker playing the other 20 min.

I guess this Yousef guy could come in at the four? His offer sheet does not scream immediate freshman starter (DePaul...)

Benthom11

June 20th, 2022 at 2:38 PM ^

Agreed. I don't get what he is trying to say there. Also weird that he lists the guards and doesn't mention Baker.  I think Baker should mostly backup Bufkin at the 2.  Bates could come in and battle Williams and Jett for a starting spot. Bates could even further help the 2 guard situation if they feel comfortable playing Jett at the 2.  

AC1997

June 18th, 2022 at 6:00 PM ^

I really hope we don't see Joey Baker defending twos.  He's a 3-4 who isn't good at defense and had hip surgery.  I think he's an ideal third forward for us because of his experience and shooting, but he's limited.  

Also, if you only read this site for your basketball coverage you probably think Houstan was as bad as Kam Chatman.  I am not saying he didn't have issues, but every post or pod takes a shot at him.  

For those who haven't heard, Juwan is also pursuing a Lebanese forward who is currently playing in France.  Sounds pretty serious and he's a 6-9 combo forward known for being good at offense.  Less developed as a prospect than Franz, but intriguing.  

Seth

June 19th, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^

Yeah, when we talk about guarding X to Y it's the range of players another team puts there. Often that's a "Just a Shooter." Just glancing through last year's opponents and whether I think Baker could guard him:

  • NO: Justin Moore, Villanova
  • YES: Santiago Vescovi, Tennessee
  • NO: Kendle Moore, CSU
  • YES: Parker Stewart, IU x2
  • NO: Malaki Branham, OSU x2
  • Maybe: Tony Perkins, Iowa x2
  • Maybe: Max Christie, MSU x2
  • NO: Alfonso Plummer, Illinois
  • YES: Caleb McConnell, Rutgers x2
  • YES: Brad Davison, Wisconsin
  • YES: Eric Hunter, Purdue x2
  • YES: Jalen Pickett, PSU
  • Maybe: Trey McGowens, Nebraska x2
  • YES: Ty Berry, Northwestern
  • NO: Eric Ayala, Maryland
  • NO: Darin Green, UCF
  • YES: Jalon Pipkins, PFW
  • NO: Dre Martin, Southern Utah
  • Maybe: Eylijah Stephens, Minnesota
  • NO: Keith Dinwiddle, SDSU
  • NO: Caleb Love, UNC
  • YES: Shamir Bogues, Tarleton State
  • YES: Dalen Terry, Zona
  • NO: Michael Nuga, UNLV
  • YES: Jared Rhoden, Seton Hall
  • YES: Jeremiah Gambrell, Prairie View
  • YES: Maceo Jack, Buffalo

That's plenty of teams a guy like Baker could be used to cover the guy playing the 2, opening up more lineup versatility (say, if you need to put Bufkin on the PG and cover a SF who drives a lot).

TrueBlue2003

June 21st, 2022 at 12:08 PM ^

Kam Chatman did have a better Ortg his sophomore year than Houstan had last year...

But yeah, Chatman used too many possessions given his low Ortg.  At least Houstan kept his usage in the teens and let other more efficient guys suck up usage and Houstan did have more of a clue on defense.

SDskyjammer

June 18th, 2022 at 8:02 PM ^

Baker sounds like downgrade from Houstan. Really hoped we could have landed a wing with more ability to create for self & teammates in addition to solid 3 pt shooter. But that is not going to happen. His reported lack of D is another downgrade from Houstan who was improving as the season progressed. Going to hope for more from T Will & see a big step forward from Bufkin. Maybe Barnes emerges as a contributor?
Increasingly ambivalent about potential for success next year.

AC1997

June 18th, 2022 at 9:41 PM ^

Again....I get that Houstan rarely played like a top ten recruit or the NBA first rounder that he's about to become and I know that he frustrated many of us....including me.  But the Houstan bashing here has become excessive.  

Despite his struggles, he lead the team in attempts and makes from three.  He played a ton of minutes at the wing when all other options couldn't crack the lineup there.  He got better on D all season.  He shot 48% at home from three on good volume and 38% in conference games.  

The way he's covered here makes me wonder why anyone wanted him back as a sophomore.  

blueboy

June 19th, 2022 at 2:23 AM ^

I wasn’t shitting on Houstan. I agree with you that he was a key piece on the team and catches more flak than he deserves. 
 

But I do think Baker will likely be better. What he lacks in raw talent compared to Houstan he makes up for with far more experience.

TrueBlue2003

June 22nd, 2022 at 3:00 PM ^

Both things can be true: he struggled as a freshmen and he might be a playable NBA player eventually.  People are just being realistic about the season he had and it's mostly out of optimism that his production can be replaced.

I don't know that taking the most threes is that special on a team that started two bigs and a PG that wasn't a great shooter.  And he made only four more threes than Eli despite taking 25 more.  Yes, he improved on defense but starting from a very bad baseline.  These are all backhanded compliments.

Again, it's ok to admit that he wasn't very good last year.

And the reason people wanted him back is that guys tend to improve a lot from freshman to sophomore year.  I think Kobe Bufkin has a higher ceiling and I'm more excited to have him back than I would have been to have Houstan back even though he was worse than Houstan last year.  I'm excited to have him back because I've seen what can happen to guys like Stauskas, Levert, etc as they come back and get better.

WestQuad

June 18th, 2022 at 9:48 PM ^

This.  Houston was predicted to be a one and done.  Unfortunately he was slow out of the blocks and didn’t really impress.  speaking for everyone I think we were all expecting to get that one awesome year next year, but he gone.  Which sucks.  Two years of Baker will be better than the one year we had of Houston.  
 

Still hope Houston is successful but bummed we didn’t get that awesome year.

mackbru

June 19th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^

I assumed the staff knew Houstan and Diabete were leaving and would quickly find able transfers. It appears I was wrong. This is kind of a mess.

ak47

June 19th, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^

As long as baker isn’t being asked to start he’s fine. He’s going to be worse on defense than houstan and potentially even less of a creator off the dribble. Houstan had games as a freshman last year better than anything baker has done in 4 years 

mtzlblk

June 19th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^

Seems like about the best you can expect for a pickup at this point, so yay!

I honestly wonder if the people in Emoni Bates entourage have made the realization that more than likely their net impact on his future is overwhelmingly negative. I mean, they have to be aware that anywhere he indicates an interest in playing, coaches/team/fans/pundits immediately start weighing whether or not he is worth the trouble/baggage/maintenance that seems an inevitable part of the package. 

Purely speculation on my part, but I'm going to guess he gets all kinds of mixed coaching messages, has missed out on many developmental opportunities, is pressured to play like someone he may not be, etc.

Gifted athlete with a lot of potential that flamed out at Memphis and may end up playing his college ball at EMU. 

Were I his father, I would be falling all over myself with a coach like Juwan and basically telling him I will promise 100% to stay waaaay away and STFU if he will coach my kid (and assure that Emoni is of the same mindset). 

Right now, at best I see Emoni possibly getting drafted way low, but going straight to G league to get caught up on the coaching/level of completion he missed out on in college. Hopefully his father can be contained as a negative factor at that level?

CaliforniaNobody

June 20th, 2022 at 10:51 PM ^

You might not say it, but I will. An upgrade over Houstan on paper. I think Houstan was overrated as a defender and infuriating as a shooter. Gladly will take the more well seasoned and efficient kid.