jim harbaugh

(Last because it needs a new name now). While updating my master roster database with this year's NFL Draft results I produced a rather striking analysis: Harbaugh's players were getting into the NFL at about twice the rate as his modern predecessors at Michigan. The data are here for anyone who wants to check my work, or you can go to my tweet storm to see the lists for Harbaugh, Hoke, Rodriguez, Carr, and Moeller.

Anyway today's goal is to explain this:

(Here's that same table if you're having trouble with the interactive version.) Blue means drafted, shaded by round. Yellow shades refer to undrafted free agents, with designations for guys who had full, long NFL careers (UDFA+), actually played in the NFL (UDFA), or just signed but never made a roster (UDFA-) with this year's guys in their own category of don't know yet. The sample includes counts scholarship players, transfers, and the type of walk-on who ascends to the Kovacsian Order of Glasgow. I also removed Xavier Worthy, though other non-enrollees who signed with Michigan are included, just because I didn't think it was right to count Worthy; YMMV.

Not counting guys still in college—and Hoke guys that Harbaugh's program probably deserves the credit for—Harbaugh's recruits are about twice as likely to sign an NFL contract, twice as likely to play in the NFL, twice as likely to be drafted, and twice as likely to be drafted in the first three rounds.

The social media explanation for this has been "player development," and there's truth to that, but it's hardly the whole truth.

What I'd like to do here is to use what we know of the players' stories to see if development was truly the big story. I suspect there's a lot more nuance here, that they were better at developing players than most, but also had some strategies for finding underrated talent, and geared their program in certain ways to make the players coming out of it more valuable to NFL teams.

[After THE JUMP let's talk about this.]

Tonight the football world turns its attention to downtown Detroit and the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the years of the Jim Harbaugh era we've grown accustomed to Michigan to having quite a few players drafted, but the next three days has the opportunity to be historic. Harbaugh himself was talking up the possibility of Michigan setting NFL Draft records in 2024 last summer and now with only a few hours to Draft Day, it remains plausible. Georgia's 2022 draft remains the record, with 15 players taken off the Bulldogs' national title winning roster. Can Michigan tie, or exceed 15? Today we'll go through each player, their chances of getting drafted, and what NFL Draft scouts are saying about the heroes from Team 144: 

Certain to be drafted (7)

JJ McCarthy

Consensus Big Board ranking: 23 

Likely Draft Day: Thursday  

What scouts are saying: In all likelihood, the first Wolverine off the board will be the QB, JJ McCarthy. Where exactly he goes is up in the air, as it could be as high as #2 (theoretically) and could be somewhere in the teens. The consensus of scouts seems to be more bearish on McCarthy when it comes to actually ranking him, as the consensus big board puts him 23rd, but the sense is that because QB is a premium position, JJ will go higher than that in the actual draft. 

Scouts seem to like McCarthy's athleticism, intangibles/leadership, and arm talent (velocity and accuracy). His winning ways in both high school and college, in addition to his raw tools and mobility as a passer are certainly tantalizing. However, McCarthy's reads and decision-making are seen as areas for uncertainty. The low volume of throws that JJ has made over his Michigan career relative to some of the other top quarterbacks are another example of that uncertainty, a bit more of a mystery component than other QBs posses. Some suggest that it may be best for JJ to sit a year behind an experienced QB, while he continues to develop as a QB reading through his progressions. We shall see whether whichever team inevitably drafts McCarthy in the first round has that plan in mind. 

Kris Jenkins

Consensus Big Board ranking: 49

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Jenkins has been on NFL Draft radars for several years now and he seems likely to follow Mazi Smith's path into the league. Smith was drafted 26th in last year's draft, a bit higher than anticipated, but Jenkins' profile and projected ranking is in a similar ballpark. Good, and among the best DTs in the class, but perhaps not an elite stud a la Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton. Jenkins generally falls in that second tier of tackles after Murphy and Newton, alongside Ohio State's Michael Hall Jr. and Florida State's (formerly WMU's) Braden Fiske.  

Jenkins' profile is a bit of an unsexy one to a lot of scouts, but with some safe projection. Like most Michigan players, he's lauded for his work ethic and intangibles, the sort of guy NFL teams want to draft. His run defense generally gets favorable reviews from scouts and he graded out very well athletically at the NFL combine. There's also more safety in Kris Jenkins' NFL pedigree through his father, even though the two are built rather differently. Jenkins' counting stat production and general pass rush is what grades out a bit more negatively to scouts, wondering if he has that explosive, home run upside. Still, for teams looking to beef up the D-Line with a safe run stopper who may still have upside to explore (remember Jenkins' body transformation at Michigan), Jenkins is a solid bet and I'd expect him to go in the 2nd round on Friday night. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: all the other guys]

According to reports, Michigan DL coach Mike Elston is headed to the L.A. Chargers to join Jim Harbaugh's staff: 

Michigan DL coach Mike Elston is expected to take the same job with the #Chargers, per source.

Elston, who previously coached at Notre Dame from 2010-2021, played an integral role in the Wolverines’ success the last two seasons. Now he follows Jim Harbaugh to L.A. pic.twitter.com/MQaUcoFS86

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 6, 2024

A player at Michigan from 1993-96, Elston had a long coaching career before joining the Wolverines in 2022. He coached most famously at Notre Dame, where he spent 2010-2021, first on special teams duties before moving to the defensive line. His work with ND drew wide acclaim and it was perceived as a major win when Harbaugh added Elston to the staff before the '22 season, after DL coach Shaun Nua joined Lincoln Riley's new USC staff. Over the past two seasons, Elston has helped coach and develop one of the most dominant defensive lines in Michigan history, one that ran roughshod over the Washington offensive line in the National Championship Game. 

The past week or two was a seeming battle between Michigan and the LA Chargers for Elston's services, but just like Ben Herbert, Harbaugh won out. Elston's vacancy means that's another coach that Sherrone Moore will have to hire, as the staff looks more and more like a nearly brand new one, rather than continuity from the previous regime. Moreover, Moore will have to work quickly to ensure that Michigan's defensive line is not raided by other schools in the portal, now that Elston has moved on. 

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