jim harbaugh chaos agent

If you’re following closely—and nine of ten doctors recommend not doing this—you’ve probably been convinced several times that Jim Harbaugh is going to one NFL team or another, or definitely returning. Balas at the Wolverine says morale has suddenly plummeted($) among the people they talk to. Poor Sam Webb’s “Harbaugh going or staying? What I’m hearing($)” is now on Part 11. The title of that latest edition is also the most ominous:

'if offered, he's gone'

The good news, groundhogs, is that we probably don’t have to suffer through another six weeks of this.

SO HE’S GONE?

Well, there’s an “if” in there. IF the meeting tomorrow goes well and the Vikings offer Harbaugh the job, it sounds like he’s going to take it. Sam said today that the Vikings have Harbaugh on the top of their list, but that he needs to address concerns held by others in the organization. From conversations with a reader who knows the organization well, I get the sense that “others in the organization” refers to the ownership.

WHAT CHANGED YOUR TUNE?

I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that Harbaugh’s offered the job tomorrow—I was at 60-40 yesterday when I made my hot take on this morning’s podcast that Jim was going to coach Michigan next year. I wasn’t worried this whole time because we’ve done Harbaugh to NFL bler bler so many times since 2015 that I’ve become used to NFL reporters using his name for clicks and NFL executives wanting no part of him. I think the hidden story of what’s changed is Matt Weiss was able to convince his friend (they went to grad school together at Stanford) and analytics soulmate Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah that Harbaugh is the only guy with a chance to turn around the fortunes of a team stuck in Kirk Cousins hell.

WHAT CHANGED HARBAUGH’S TUNE?

That’s for Harbaugh or those closer to him to answer. He’s always been a weird dude capable of pursuing one route with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind, then reversing course and going just as hard that way. There’s also a big difference between talk in 2016, when he was just getting started at Michigan, and in 2022, after seven seasons in Ann Arbor, a Big Ten championship, a defeat of Ohio State, a playoff appearance, and a young roster and durable young staff set up for future success if the next guy can fill a few holes.

I maintain that the 2021 negotiation shifted Harbaugh’s sense of himself in the grand scheme of Michigan. Warde Manuel and the Michigan administration were always behind him—Schembechler Hall does what it wants and Weidenbach Hall does what they can to help, as the saying goes—but it was clear after the 2-4 season that Harbaugh was no longer the toast of the town, or completely synonymous with Michigan Football. Once it got in everybody’s minds that Michigan had a future beyond Harbaugh, and maybe a brighter one, it must have occurred to him too. There was a time not too long ago that Michigan was still synonymous with Bo, and Harbaugh was the natural heir of that program. I think the fanbase has come around slowly on the sense that Michigan is Michigan, a mega corporation with some quirky values both quaint and admirable, and a history worthy of its brand. The Great Man Theory fell out of favor in the History Department when I was getting a bachelor’s from them. Recent events and revelations finally moved that idea all the way down State Street, probably for the better. But if you’re the Great Man in residence as that happened I have to imagine the experience was humbling.

I guess we should talk about this. Rumors starting swirling last week that the Raiders were going to offer Jim Harbaugh uncanny money to take over in Las Vegas, and that Jim is going to hear them out. People keep asking me what I’ve heard, and I’ve pointed them to the premium message boards because I’m not an insider. Other than some peripheral people who tell me things, I know dickety doo except what goes out in public, or what I get from 247, On3, and Rivals. If you want insider information you should pay the insiders for that.

Those insiders have done their best to keep up, but the list of sources who know anything here is small enough that real information is scarce. Both Sam Webb of The Michigan Insider/247 and Chris Balas from The Wolverine/On3 have reported that Raiders interest is real, and also that Michigan has a new offer on the table that rewards Harbaugh for last year’s turnaround and increases the assistant pool. Presumably there’s at least enough to bump up some of the young assistants on prove-it contracts and still have enough to play the field for a Nua replacement. The insiders are also convinced that a new contract will come with promises to manifestly change Michigan’s approach regarding changes in the competitive environment, which various people close to Harbaugh have suggested are more important than his own paycheck.

Harbaugh isn’t talking, whomever he’s talking to in Las Vegas isn’t talking, and what we’re getting are reflections of what he’s said to his staff, what people who know him well think, and then a lot of dubious third-hand stuff from a guy who knows a guy who thinks he knows a thing that he doesn’t really.

The latest from Sam Webb($) is that Harbaugh hasn’t told Michigan what he’s doing yet, but hasn’t stopped doing his job. Previous updates from Sam said Michigan is going to have to wait him out($), and that Harbaugh intends to listen($) to what the NFL has to offer. Balas has been tracking the ups and downs($) that staff inside the building have gone through. There are many interesting details about those points behind the paywalls. Most of the rest of the insider information matches what John U. Bacon et al. are getting from people they talk to, which is that money (for himself) isn’t what Harbaugh cares about.

That’s the end of information. Let’s speculate what it all means.

[After the JUMP: Live turkeys vs jive ones]

On the basis of one somewhat and one very weird game, how would you revise the assumptions made in 2019 5Q/5A? Hopefully the answer is not at all, but … ugh.

-Dirk

I don't think anything about the defense has changed significantly. MTSU had 200 yards on an all-perimeter gameplan before Backup Events, and Army is a service academy triple option. If anything I think the situation there feels significantly better than it did preseason:

• Uche looks like a Winovich-level dude and seems set to be a full time performer going forward.
• The Ambry Thomas colitis scare is over.
• Jordan Glasgow grabbed the WLB job and looks like a player.
• Aidan Hutchinson is going from potential star to star.

The downers aren't downers at all if Michigan gets Dwumfour and Jeter back from injury. We knew Ben Mason wasn't going to be ready to be at DT. The one thing that is a bit concerning is the lack of immediate impact from Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith, and Uche might provide a way around that.

Offense… well. Uh. Missing DPJ and Runyan plus having a clearly dinged Patterson is a drag. But Patterson's main issue this season has been his decision-making, and that was his issue last season. If that isn't tracking towards an improvement for whatever reason (transition costs, that's just his ceiling) Michigan's not going to approach our optimistic preseason takes.

One thing that's probably making our offense takes more negative than they should be: fumbles. Michigan lost three all of last year. They've lost five already this year. They were probably due for an increase just as they regress towards the mean, but that's absurd.

Offense is stock down, but not as catastrophically as a lot of people seem to think.

[After THE JUMP: positive questions that reflect a faith Michigan will right the hahah no just more BPONE]