black pit of negative expectations

10/1/2022 – Michigan 27, Iowa 14 – 5-0, 2-0 Big Ten

On the podcast this week we had a conversation about whether we were nervous. At any point, in a game against Iowa at Kinnick, did we feel the cold hand of death creep over us? Answers varied, with the Sklar Brothers on team "disaster may befall us at any moment" but the rest of the podcast crew fairly relaxed, with the occasional twinge of worry.

In Alex's case this is easily explained: he is twenty-three and has not had time in which to develop a truly deep-seated mania. A rat exposed to weird mistreatment may recover if negative external stimulus is replaced with fluffy rabbits in time. Alex was five when the Long Dark started, and presumably was more interested in fire trucks and ninja-kicking his (hypothetical?) sister than contemplating why the universe was an Akron teenager's NCAA Football save.

When Alex says the universe is not that and is instead an ever-expanding void filled with the occasional particle; when he says that events are not shaped around causing maximum misery to people who attended school in a particular bucolic Midwestern city; when he says that there is not a malevolent entity wholeheartedly dedicated to causing myself and people like me unreasonable pain… well, that is the naïveté of youth speaking. Hopeless, bountiful optimism. He is a child skipping through a field of dandelions, oblivious to life's cruel realities.

It is only we, his elders and betters, who know that all events are twisted around a fiendish core dedicated to nothing other than our mental dissolution and eventual destruction. So the question is: what is wrong with Seth and I?

---------------------------------

The story of the last 20 years of being a Michigan fan is gradually getting the arrogance beaten out of you. I remember being in the stands for that Northwestern game against Darnell Autry and the rest of those guys, the Rose Bowl Northwestern team. Northwestern had the lead, and I was irritated, because it would look bad for the voters on Monday. Northwestern still had the lead later, and there was the slight twinge of concern that if Michigan didn't get their butts in gear that they could actually lose. Then they lost, and it was incomprehensible.

Somehow that incomprehensibility-in-the-moment lasted and lasted and lasted even though Michigan kept playing games like this against their purported lessers. They had a special kink for losing 18-point leads under Carr. Michigan State started being a thing. Ohio State stopped being a Jon Cooper joint. And even through all that you thought to yourself "surely, this one can't be like that. This is Michigan."

But when things flipped, things flipped. That perpetual wave of ignorant optimism was replaced by a belief that as soon as one thing went wrong the avalanche was loosed. This space called it the Black Pit of Negative Expectations after a particularly dispiriting season-opening loss to Notre Dame:

The BPONE is a state of mind in which no part of a football game is enjoyable because it is merely a prelude to some pratfall made more embarrassing and or painful by whatever minimal, temporary successes are experienced prior to the pratfall. Thus a kick return touchdown—that rarest butterfly, one the game is steadily trying to erase—during which your author's only reaction was internal and, I quote, "whoop-de-damn-do." …

The flaw in BPONE operations is of course the impossibility of mining any enjoyment out of your experience. BPONE sufferers assume a football game is a negative emotional event and spread those negative emotions out more broadly. Only if the team should actually come back and win will any regret be felt, and pffffffffft. I'm in the pit, baby! I know for a stone cold fact that a punt snap will somehow lodge itself in the facemask of the punter. I feel it in my bones that the one time we jump a route in this game the ensuing interception will bang off the defensive back's hands and lodge itself in the facemask of the opposition 50 yards downfield.

Every season started with a guillotine at the end of it; the previous eleven games were merely a Cardassian trial where we discovered what the crimes that justified the sentence were.

And then, last year.

--------------------------------------------

Turns out it only takes one counter-example to flip that switch back. Maybe not all the way to considering the rest of the Big Ten to be useless peons, but back to watching a football game with some level of rationality. Back to watching Michigan fumble it backwards to their own two and thinking "wow, good thing Donovan Edwards was paying attention" instead of "oh God, here it comes."

Maybe this has to do with the density of mistakes prior. Michigan opened this game with an immaculate 10-play touchdown drive against SP+'s #1 defense, and prior to that event the only reason they hadn't scored on a drive against that defense was an offensive lineman stepping on the quarterback's foot. (Another event that could have caused a reality-breaking cascade in different circumstances.) Goobery pratfall type events were limited to that and one (1) delay of game penalty.

It may in fact be rational to expect Michigan to soldier through one mistake or three, because they no longer feel like a rickety wagon held together by the odd five-star, but rather a team that goes about its business efficiently. This is college football, so that feeling is an illusion that may well get blown up by, like, Illinois or something. But when this happens I will be surprised again, at long last.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

mmm flat person [Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mike Morris. An important part of a Michigan defense that strangled the Iowa ground game and despite limited opportunities turned in an eye-popping pass-rush line with two sacks and two QB hurries, three of them generated by beating blockers—just one stunt loop. A palpable blip as Michigan looks for organic pass rush in the back half of the season.

#2 Blake Corum. 29 carries, 133 yards, one All-American linebacker dusted and done on one of the few opportunities he had to do something without Iowa's passive umbrella of a defense coming down to prevent fancy long runs. Added to short-yardage/YAC reel considerably. Also caught a couple of passes.

#3 The offensive line. The steady drumbeat of advancement was made possible by Michigan controlling, and sometimes crumpling, a veteran, very good Iowa defensive line. Aside from a couple of what looked like Trente Jones missed assignments the pass protection was excellent, as well.

Honorable mention: Eyabi Okie was the other half of Michigan's obliterating pass rush on the four-and-out Iowa desperation drive; he also turned in a couple plays against the run earlier in the game. JJ McCarthy didn't put up big numbers but didn't put anything in harm's way and made the occasional capital-P Play. Mazi Smith, Kris Jenkins, and Mason Graham won pretty decisively against the Iowa IOL. Luke Schoonmaker was again Michigan's leading receiver and continued his string of excellent blocking performances.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

23: Blake Corum (#2 CSU, #2 Hawaii, HM UConn, #1 Maryland, #2 Iowa)
15: JJ McCarthy (#1 Hawaii, #2 UConn, HM Maryland, HM Iowa)
12: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU, T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, HM Iowa)
11: Mike Morris (T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, #1 Iowa)
10: Ronnie Bell (HM CSU, HM Hawaii, #1 UConn)
6: Gemon Green (HM UConn, T2 Maryland), Kris Jenkins (#3 UConn, T3 Hawaii, HM Iowa)
5: DJ Turner (T2 Maryland)
4: Junior Colson (#3 CSU, HM UConn)
3: Luke Schoonmaker (T3 Maryland, HM Iowa), The Offensive Line (#3 Iowa).
2: Roman Wilson (HM CSU, HM Hawaii), Max Bredeson (T3 Maryland), Joel Honigford (T3 Maryland), Eyabi Okie (HM CSU, HM Iowa), Mason Graham (HM Hawaii, HM Iowa)
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Derrick Moore (HM CSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU), Rod Moore (HM CSU), Makari Paige (HM Hawaii), Rayshaun Benny (HM Hawaii), Cornelius Johnson (HM Hawaii), Donovan Edwards (HM Hawaii), AJ Henning (HM UConn),  Caden Kolesar (HM UConn), Mike Sainristil (HM Maryland), RJ Moten (HM Maryland).

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Michigan's first drive is a clockwork marvel of bending and then breaking the Iowa defense.

Honorable mention: Iowa's last meaningful drive is two sacks and two not-quite sacks. Blake Corum dusts Iowa's star MLB for a cherry-on-top touchdown.

?MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

A missed assignment from Jones gets McCarthy lit up and causes a backward pass that 1) is Iowa's most threatening play of the game at that point and 2) sets up a failed drive and short punt that puts Iowa on the field in plus territory and sets up the touchdown drive that puts us in too-close-to-gloat territory.

Honorable mention: Zinter steps on McCarthy's foot to hamstring Michigan's second drive. Caden Kolesar gets hurt covering a punt. Mike Sainristil gets lost on third and twenty-two.

On the basis of one somewhat and one very weird game, how would you revise the assumptions made in 2019 5Q/5A? Hopefully the answer is not at all, but … ugh.

-Dirk

I don't think anything about the defense has changed significantly. MTSU had 200 yards on an all-perimeter gameplan before Backup Events, and Army is a service academy triple option. If anything I think the situation there feels significantly better than it did preseason:

• Uche looks like a Winovich-level dude and seems set to be a full time performer going forward.
• The Ambry Thomas colitis scare is over.
• Jordan Glasgow grabbed the WLB job and looks like a player.
• Aidan Hutchinson is going from potential star to star.

The downers aren't downers at all if Michigan gets Dwumfour and Jeter back from injury. We knew Ben Mason wasn't going to be ready to be at DT. The one thing that is a bit concerning is the lack of immediate impact from Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith, and Uche might provide a way around that.

Offense… well. Uh. Missing DPJ and Runyan plus having a clearly dinged Patterson is a drag. But Patterson's main issue this season has been his decision-making, and that was his issue last season. If that isn't tracking towards an improvement for whatever reason (transition costs, that's just his ceiling) Michigan's not going to approach our optimistic preseason takes.

One thing that's probably making our offense takes more negative than they should be: fumbles. Michigan lost three all of last year. They've lost five already this year. They were probably due for an increase just as they regress towards the mean, but that's absurd.

Offense is stock down, but not as catastrophically as a lot of people seem to think.

[After THE JUMP: positive questions that reflect a faith Michigan will right the hahah no just more BPONE]

Mailbag! Most of these are twitter questions. I'm not answering anything that's directly addressed in the upcoming season preview, so if your question didn't get picked maybe that's why. Maybe.

does BPONE fit under any of the categories of mental disorder listed in the APA's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders?

— RYCERATOPS ᕕ[ ᐛ ]ᕗ (@ryanmopo) August 20, 2019

The Black Pit Of Negative Expectations is not a mental disorder, it is a defense technique based on a rational extrapolation of past feelings to future events. BPONE trades lower highs for higher lows and is thus a wise approach for people who may wander into the streets to rend their clothing and wail without BPONE.

BPONE is therapeutic. Never tweet during BPONE.

If McCaffrey plays every game, is it a couple of 2nd Quarter drives, or is it a couple of one-off plays each game? Or something else?

— Jonathan Drouin (@JonDrouin) August 20, 2019

To me, "play every game" implies more than some goofy one-off trick plays. If I had to bet, we're going to see McCaffrey get one or two drives per game. This isn't a Henson/Brady situation where the starting job is truly being contested during the season—Patterson is the starter. It is a spot where Michigan has so much faith in their backup QB that it makes sense to get him some meaningful reps in case Patterson is unavailable at some point.

[After THE JUMP: quit asking me about worst case scenarios you BPONE maniacs]