Tate Forcier...
I cannot wait until he comes onto campus. I hear his dad is trying to get him to be Timbow like. His days consist of, getting up early to do water aerobics, goes to school, then has football practice.. AND THEN he does weight lifting. Thats everyday. People tend to workout 3-4 days a week, Tates been doing 5-6 days a week. I think hes gonna be very explosive from the get go. Hes not a very "big" guy, but hes probably getting bigger. Plus, hes enrolling early, so he has 9 months of working out with barwis before his first debut. Hes very accurate passer, #1 qb in accuracy in the country.
Also, he just looks sick when he plays(accessorie wise). His highschool teams colors are red and blue. He has diff combos with red/blue wristbands every game. One arm wil be all red with wristbands/under armour, other is all blue(for instance) with his feet all taped up(colors). And wears a clear visor.
Imagine him wearing maize on one arm, blue on other. Wrist bands on each arm with the tshirt underarmour. One maize sock, one blue sock. With taped up feet and a clear visor.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:26 AM ^
what I read, but he strikes me as a leader with an excellent work ethic. I think he will start by the 2-3rd game and generally rip it up.
November 24th, 2008 at 7:35 PM ^
no is that RR is going to pick the best Qb bc he wants to win.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:34 AM ^
hes gonna be really good 4 us.. im thinkin more like a colt mccoy rather than tebow... he runs wen he needs to... hes passed 4 almost 4000 yards his senior year (he is still in the playoffs)...
November 24th, 2008 at 12:41 AM ^
signonsandiego.com has his stats. He had 6 rushing tds his jr yr, he already has 11. He passed for more than a thousand yards more this season than last season (10 games so far this season to 11 last yr). Threw more interceptions this season but he threw the ball more... More tds this season too.
I think he'll start from day 1. Threet/sheridan proved that they cant lead a team. He has 8 months of learning everything. Plus, RR already said hes playing with the 1's the first day hes on campus.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:43 AM ^
wen did rr say tates playin with the 1s?? and yes i agree he will be the starter the 1st game nxt year he has an arm and good speed (something no qb at michigan has right now)
November 24th, 2008 at 12:43 AM ^
I've heard from a couple people that they thought his arm compared to Chad Henne. A couple coaches have said this also.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:46 AM ^
that's pretty awesome. i'm tempering my expectations because he'll only be a frosh next year but he should be pretty good.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:52 AM ^
Then the only reason he's low rated (relative) is because of his height? It's possible, but unlikely. Then again, given his 70% completion percentage as a junior and a Henne-esque arm, he should be in the top 3 of pocket passers. The only thing that would seem to be such a negative then is his height and the fact he can run? I'd be careful about saying his arm is Chad Henne-like because I seem to remember expectations set earlier this year around a defense that was 2006 esque because it had a sweet defensive line and was going to be Barwisized.
Also, unless he has a killer tatoo, he's no Chad Henne.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:29 AM ^
I don't want this to sound rude, but I don't get the comparison of a quarterback's arm to our defense.
Those star ratings a lot of the time are wrong. I said this in a different post, but I take those with a grain of salt. If you look at the other factors, he's very highly regarded. On rivals, his "rr" rating is a 5.9, which means they think he's a potential game breaker. He has offers from Michigan (obviously), Oregon, Penn State, Florida, Stanford, Texas A&M, and Arizona State. So he was highly regarded by the people that matter, the coaches. I'm not saying he's the best qb out there, but he's good.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:34 AM ^
That's kind of the point I was trying to make in my other posts in this thread. It isn't beyond plausible that Forcier will come in on day one as a true freshman and be better than either Threet or Sheridan will ever be in their entire careers. That's just a simple analysis based on natural talent.
November 24th, 2008 at 8:31 AM ^
Tom, with all due respect, I think Shock's point revolved more around setting unrealstic expectations for a kid we don't know much about, other than reading press clippings.
Sure. But there's a difference between "plausible" and "likely". It's "plausible" that the Dow will gain 700 points tomorrow, or that I'll randomly be promoted.
I'm not even saying that it's not "likely" that Forcier will be the starter. All I'm saying is that:
-Threet, no matter what people want to say, is physically talented. He also has made good decisions in this offense. He needs to improve accuracy, badly.
-Beaver, according to most talent evaluators, is roughly on par with Forcier, though he possesses a different skill set.
-It's generally unlikely that true freshmen are riotously successful at QB.
-Forcier's main knock, other than size, is that his level of competition in high school is thought to be sub-par.
So, I'm not saying that he won't be a good college QB, I'm not even saying he won't neccesarily be a good college QB next year. What I'm saying is that EXPECTING it to happen will, more likely than not, leave the person disappointed. THAT, I think, is where Shock's point comes in. Everyone thought that our defense was going to be god-awesome amazing. When our expectations weren't met, people freaked the fuck out and wanted blood.
I just hesitate to anoint a kid I've never seen play a second (other than a handful of highlights, which, by definition, are the best he has to offer, so not particularly useful for evaluation purposes - which is assuming any of us is qualified to evaluate a football player anyway) as our savior. ESPECIALLY when we have a decently-talented returning starter AND a classmate evaluated roughly as highly.
I'd say Forcier has about a 33% percent change of being our starter, and from there, maybe a 50% of being something we'd describe as "good", at least for next year.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:51 AM ^
how tall is chad? i kno tates only 6'0 thats y hes a "dualthreat qb".. hes alot quicker than chad
November 24th, 2008 at 1:04 AM ^
I don't know where this idea comes from, but you are listed as a dual-threat only if you ARE a dual threat. If Tate was 6'5" and had the same running skills that he does now he would still be a dual-threat, but higher listed because he is taller.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:51 AM ^
GoBlue00: I hope that he is successful at Michigan, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that his success or failure will have NOTHING to do with "he just looks sick when he plays(accessorie wise)".
And if we are starting a true freshman for the first game next fall, we will be very fortunate to have a winning record.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:12 AM ^
I completely disagree about the winning record comment. It is at least plausibly debatable that this years team "could" have had a winning record with a viable quarterback, freshman or otherwise. So, with everything else that much further progressed next season plus a viable quarterback, a winning record should be the minimum expectation (and no, I really don't think I'm setting my expectations too high).
November 24th, 2008 at 3:02 AM ^
We could have had 2 more wins this season just by not having such abysmal luck, and a couple more with better throwing ability.
November 24th, 2008 at 3:15 AM ^
make this comparison, but I don't see any reason why our 2009 offense can't be similar to OSU's 2008 offense. We'll have a serviceable line, an experienced power running back, and a talented true freshman dual-threat QB. Unfortunately, the other side of the ball is a different story...
November 24th, 2008 at 1:15 AM ^
Sheridan's lack of success can be directly tied to his lack of sick accessories.
It is a well known fact that Henne got his power from that panther tattoo.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:19 AM ^
Well i never heard the chad henne thing. Thats good thing though. Imagine if Chad henne has wheels is what i always thought, well i guess my dream came true because its tate.
U really think we'll have a losing record if we have a freshmen qb? Not so fast. Theres comments tate made about sheridan/threet, the things there doing wrong. Tate was talking about how when its 3rd and 2, the qbs just take a sack or throw it away when noones open.YOU RUN THE BALL he said.
Remember, chad henne and mike hart led us to a 10-2 record when they both were freshmen. and i know we had braylon, but he didnt win us the 10 games. Theres a new braylon in the making, and thats Daryl Stonum. Stonum and Forcier all day for 3 yrs. Thats championship after championship after championship.
November 24th, 2008 at 2:38 AM ^
I know Stonum is a Frosh and may well be very good at some point in his career at michigan. i hope he is anyway. but lets hold off on the braylon edwards comparisons just yet. nothing against stonum either, the bar is just really high
November 24th, 2008 at 1:20 AM ^
There are a lot of things that need to happen for this team to make the step up to 8 wins. The most important (in my opinion) is a major step forward in OL play. Its realistic to expect that.
The second most important is quality QB play. Not Chad Henne 2006, but no worse than Navarre 2001. And Navarre 2001 a redshirt sophomore in a system that he had spent two full years in and had started three games the year prior. Expecting a TRUE freshman to perform on opening day at the level of Navarre 2001 is not terribly realistic.
I can see a positive scenario whereby one of the freshman QBs can replace Threet during the second half of the season because they have had the spring camp, fall camp, and 1/2 season of practice to get to a point of being competent. But to think that they will be prepared to make all of the relevant decisions at game speed by the end of august is foolish.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:31 AM ^
No offense, but I don't see how it's foolish to think that. By the time that next August rolls around both Forcier and Beaver will have exactly the same amount of time that Sheridan and Threet had in the system this past August. The only difference is that both Forcier and Beaver have legitimate Michigan-caliber skills. I would be willing to bet good money that one of the two true freshmen starts game one next season and puts up significantly better numbers than either Sheridan or Threet did this year.
November 24th, 2008 at 2:54 AM ^
The number one reason the QB play will be much better next year is because there will be three viable options instead of maybe one. The best player out of Threet, Beaver, and Forcier is likely to be much better than the best player out of Threet.
November 24th, 2008 at 4:05 AM ^
Theyll be way more ready. For one beaver/forcier run the spread option type offenses in high school. For two, they can run, so it adds the running part of the offense,(and they can actually run) and they both got good arms.
November 24th, 2008 at 4:25 PM ^
Before this year 2001 Navarre stuck out like a sore thumb for worst quarterbacking at UM, I'm speaking Lloyd era not before. I think some athletes just have an intangible competitive edge, I'm avoiding saying Eye of the Tiger, Tate Forcier seems like this type. I think being at that Utah game he was convinced he could start here early. His scrambling ability is legitimate and that could be the difference. I'd be happy if Threet improves and starts. He has great arm strength, but terrible accuracy. Who knows maybe Beaver will start. Brian is right 3 lottery tickets are better than one.
You're right we should temper our expectations, but I feel a lot better about QB next season.
November 24th, 2008 at 4:26 PM ^
I'm just curious how you have any insight into Forcier's emotional makeup. This is projection of your desire, not an observation.
November 25th, 2008 at 4:05 AM ^
I certainly do desire him to be a fiery competitor. All I'm going by are a few things. Competition in college never worried him. When Newsome was a commit he still flew into town and attended camp. He committed right during his visit of the Utah game. I recall him saying "All I can say is that offense isn't for them, but it's tailor-made for me" in regards to Threet and Sheridan. Maybe he's just cocky, maybe he doesn't pan out, I'm just saying I like what I see from afar!
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/recruiting/football/2008-09-04-notebook-…
November 24th, 2008 at 1:32 AM ^
GoBlue00 -- I admire your optimism, but you are very naive. There is no receiver on the team right now that will recreate Braylon's 2004 production next year. Braylon was either the greatest or second greatest WR at a school that has produced a lot of great WRs in the last 30 years.
It is also unlikely that our OL will be as good as the 2004 unit. Here are some of the players that were up for preseason award watch lists in 2004:
Butkus: Reid and Woods
Walter Camp: Edwards
Thorpe: Jackson and Shazor
Outland: Baas
Not that pre-season rankings mean much, but they do imply some estimate of the team coming back. We were ranked 7th (Coaches poll) and 8 (AP Poll) and chosen as the Preseason Favorite in Big Ten. We are not that team next year.
Assuming Graham comes back, we will only have one guy to be on any preseason watch lists, and Mouton and Warren might get some publicity. THAT'S IT. We are not that team that could carry a true freshman to a conference title.
November 24th, 2008 at 10:18 PM ^
"Assuming Graham comes back, we will only have one guy to be on any preseason watch lists"
The Space Emperor is going to exile you from space with comments like this
November 24th, 2008 at 1:36 AM ^
Barring an injury to Threet, Beaver and Forcier will not have as much time in the system as Threet. Threet will be getting at least 1/3 of the practice snaps, if not more. Where threet split the snaps with sheridan leading up to this season.
Threet was also a year older than these two recruits and had been on campus an entire year. He had his feet underneath him when the new system came in. College will be a new experience for the two recruits, and I can't see their focus being on par with Threet's for that reason. And to think that they will pick everything up as quickly as Threet is optimistic.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:40 AM ^
I'm not sure how you can say that last sentence when Threet hadn't picked up the system well enough to be the starter in week one this past season. As for time in the system, what I meant was that both Beaver and Forcier will have as much time in the system at the start of next season that Threet had in the system at the start of this past season. Sorry if I wasn't clear on that.
November 24th, 2008 at 8:37 AM ^
Isn't the fact that an intelligent kid (Threet) COULDN'T pick up the system in that time more of an indication that it will also be difficult for Beaver and Forcier?
November 24th, 2008 at 11:02 AM ^
Not necessarily. Both Beaver and Forcier will be ahead of the game in that they've run it before.
November 24th, 2008 at 11:22 AM ^
In the film I've seen, what they're running isn't a read option. It's a generic spread.
November 24th, 2008 at 11:34 AM ^
Ok, and the problem with that is what? That means that they will have experience making the more difficult of the two types of reads (although against lesser talent). That's an advantage if you ask me.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:01 PM ^
It's not a problem - it's just that it's not "the same offense", as you claim.
November 24th, 2008 at 3:31 PM ^
I never said that it was "the same offense". That said, it's a hell of a lot closer to what either Threet or Sheridan had experience in when RR started, now isn't it?
November 24th, 2008 at 3:38 PM ^
Look 3 boxes up. You said they had run the system before. Now you're saying they ran "something like it". Threet ran a spread in high school. Again, if a smart kid (Threet) can't pick it up in the same amount of time, why would a kid who, according to his own father struggled academically magically be able to do it? The fact Threet COULDN'T is more of an argument for why Forcier will struggle with it as well, not that he won't struggle.
November 24th, 2008 at 3:45 PM ^
(1) Academic smarts doesn't necessarily translate onto the football field.
(2) Don't put words into my posts. I never said that they ran the same system. What I said in the box that you reference doesn't say what you claim. It just didn't.
(3) The fact that Threet COULDN'T isn't really an argument for why Forcier will struggle with it as well at all. It is only if your assumptions are true; which is particularly debatable.
(4) Try being a little more flexible in your reading of these posts. You nit pick at points that are addressed in other posts.
November 24th, 2008 at 4:30 PM ^
I would say that academic intelligence would highly correlate to the speed with which one can learn a playbook.
November 24th, 2008 at 4:34 PM ^
Why aren't you talking about his accessories? Clearly how pretty our QB is should be the biggest issue, not how well he "plays". Take a page from Notre Dame.
November 24th, 2008 at 4:36 PM ^
Look, to clarify: I hope you're right. I hope Tate is awesome. I think he'll end up being a good QB. I really do.
I'm not convinced that's going to happen next year - Henne was successful because he had Braylon. Being good as a true-freshman is hard. It just is.
I just shudder when I see these expectations being so high for him as a true freshman.
Just look to all the people calling for certian players to lose scholarships and certain coaches to lose jobs when hih expectations aren't met. Hell, look at Navarre as a Sophomore.
November 24th, 2008 at 6:10 PM ^
projecting a freshman that we haven't seen in person yet at the toughest position in sports in an offense that demands arguably more of a QB than Drop Back does is crazy. I understand the impulse (please God!) but history shows this is faulty thinking.
November 24th, 2008 at 11:59 AM ^
In Tate's highlights he does run the read a couple times FWIW
November 24th, 2008 at 1:39 AM ^
There are two positions on a football team that "natural talent" isn't enough to be competent, QB and OL. It takes time to learn what the hell to do.
And regarding talent, I question that either recruit will be as talented as Henne. And he struggled as a true freshman. What saved him was that he had a lot of excellent players around him for support. Who ever is QB next year won't have that supporting cast.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:46 AM ^
I don't disagree with what you are saying about talent w/r/t QB and OL, but there is a certain point at which all the experience in the world doesn't outweigh superior talent. I hadn't brought up Henne (I'm guessing that you're pulling that from another poster), but he's a good player to bring up in another respect. Yes, he certainly had his struggles during his first season. However, there is one important thing that Forcier has that Henne did not: mobility. I really think that's where the Henne comparison should end though. They aren't the same type of quarterback.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:45 AM ^
I know what you meant about being in the system, but I think a more nuanced analysis is required. there were two qb's taking the lion's share of snaps leading up to this season, Threet and Sheridan. Let's assume Sheridan is done. Now we will have three QBs taking snaps, Threet, Beaver and Forcier. So the two recruits will get less snaps to learn what to do than Threet had prior to this season.
And regardless of whether or not Threet started the season, he was making good decisions early on. He just had a fondness for Tacopants, fumbles and throwing poor swing passes.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:48 AM ^
Yeah, I know what you are saying. I don't disagree that Threet was making good decisions. I guess the difference here lies in whether Threet's improvement will supplement his lesser skill set enough to make him a more viable choice in week one next season than a player with a better skill set (I don't think you'd argue with that) and less experience.
November 24th, 2008 at 1:52 AM ^
GoBlue00 mentioned our success in 2004 with a freshman QB. That is the genesis of my Henne discussion.
I'm not going to argue that greater mobility would benefit Threet. But decision making is the trait that takes time and reps. And lets not forget that Threet was a highly regarded QB coming out of high school (top 10 rated as I recall). He may not be a perfect fit for the read option, but he has demonstrated an ability to make yards with his feet. so the recruits don't bring some ability that Threet lacks entirely.
But Threet has game experience that the recruits do lack entirely.
November 24th, 2008 at 2:07 AM ^
You're right, Rivals #9, 4 star, Scout #12. I didn't remember that for whatever reason.
Also, I do want to point out that I haven't clearly articulated to I don't believe that Michigan would be in that bad of a spot if Threet is the starter in game one, because as you said in your other post, there is no reason to expect that he won't make a typical Freshman to Sophomore transition. There are just some little things that I don't believe are readily teachable/learnable that Threet is quite deficient in (i.e. his short passing game). I just come from the standpoint that it is absolutely vital for the offense next season to have a downfield threat to loosen up the defense, and I'm not sure that Threet gives that (although he's CLEARLY more a downfield threat than Sheridan).