Safety of Michigan's Winningest Program Record
A previous post on the board (since deleted) got me thinking about the safety of Michigan's status as the all-time winningest team. Michigan has that title by either metric: by overall wins and by winning percentage.
We recently took the winning percentage title from ND (I think somewhere around 2003 if memory serves), but have had the all-time wins for as long as I've ever been aware (and probably as long as I've been alive since I'm in my 20s).
I thought I'd see what it would take to lose the records. The all-time wins is easiest: we have 50 more wins than Texas, who's in second place. If we never won again, and Texas won every single game, it'd still take over 3.33 seasons for Texas to surpass us, assuming they play a 12 game regular season, a conference championship game, and even with a plus-one playoff system
The percentage record is not nearly as durable, not surprisingly. If we lose the first seven games and ND wins their first seven, they would have earned back the record. It'd take a fair amount more before Oklahoma could catch up to us: we'd need to lose 23 straight games and they'd need to win 23 straight games for their percentage to pass us (Texas has a higher percentage currently but has also played more games so Oklahoma's percentage catches up more quickly).
It was pointed out in comments that Boise State has a more malleable win percentage having played so few games, so I ran those numbers as well: they can actually catch up in 13 games (again, we lose that many and they win that many).
(Updated to more accurate calculations--the originals were slightly off; the change actually increases the number of games needed to catch up)
Yeah, but this is the year ND returns to glory. They're totally serious this time. So there's that to worry about.
They finally have a coach without flaws of any kind. No way he can fail.
Don't forget the All-American QB as well!
Awesome QB + Awesome Coach =....
7-5 season??
You'd think with the advent of Google Maps, ND would've managed to find their way back there already.
Google took them to Jackson, MS and they can't find their way back.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hope-of-Glory-N-D-Church/328779160507017
Damnit, you made me spray my dink onto my screen.
Oh god... is dink one of those slang words I have been hearing about? All over the screen?
...are better left unspoken. Do not tempt any Michigan-Hating Gods of any sort, please.
This is just something that's kinda pointless to discuss. Unless Michigan wins every NC forever, there's always going to be a chance that at some point we are not the "winningest program" anymore. That said, our closest competitor is Texas, and we could NOT PLAY FOOTBALL for two years while they won out entirely and still not get passed.
Second of all... that thread title is HORRIBLE. My first thought was, "Jordan Kovacs is good, but he was here for our terrible 2008 and 2009 seasons. There has got to be one who won more while here."
The thread title should be, "Safety of Michigan's Winningest Program Record".
Definitely agree about the title--change made.
As to the other point, you're right, of course we won't be the winningest program forever, but I think your argument about why it's not worth discussing is actually the point--I think it's interesting that the most wins ever thing is pretty darn safe, and to understand exactly how safe the highest win percentage is.
damn sweet.
March 23rd, 2012 at 10:21 AM ^
There seems to be a pattern there...but I can't quite make it out. I'm thinking a few more ND losses may help.
I don't want to think about the shit that Hoke would flip if he ever has to stop saying "Michigan is the winningest program in college football". I don't know if his Michigan pride could take it at all during his tenure as head coach.
Let's just hope Bo and the rest of the football Gods continue smiling down at Hoke and any coaches that follow him and leave it at that?
At that time both M and ND were very sound programs and the thought of either having a losing season or missing a bowl game seemed impossible. No likely scenario yielded a result where we overtook ND for the all time percentage....Then Faust came and, although Skippy's old man got them back on track for a few years, we made back enough ground to put them in the crosshairs.
how quickly things can turn. In 1960 Minnesota would have still been in this conversation, and look at them now.
Oh, you mean 30 years before I was born? Wow, things do change fast... lol
But seriously, I agree with your point, probably could've picked a better example though.
Ummm... that was a pretty suitable example, if given the long term nature of these records.
It was a much better example then, say, OSU. Oh look, they got caught cheating and had a bad year. Scratch them off the list. No way they'll be good again.
You kids and your lack of perspective...
In 1960 Minnesota was still thought of as one of the great national powers. They'd had a mediocre stretch since the war, but they won a national championship that year and it was assumed they were returning to the glory they'd had in the 30s.
Some bad coaching hires and a shift in the demographics of the game, and they were about to start out on a 50-year stretch without even a conference championship.
It can happen. It might be happening to ND as we watch, or it might not. We won't know until it's already over.
Sometime I should do a diary comparing the condition and history of the football programs at Michigan and Minnesota in 1968. That they would move to opposite poles of the football universe--that wasn't easy to see coming..
I thought about this a lot when RR was hired, and again when he was fired. Fans tend to think the football world they've known is the one that has always been and will always be--and then a butterfly flaps its wings in China, or a coach retires without an obvious successor, and you have to roll the dice again.
It's going to take 25 years for them to catch us. And that's Texas going without any dips like the 80's....or now. So there's a good chance a lot of us won't live to see that one surpassed.
that Yale is actually in second place, with 863 wins (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_winningest_college_football_teams)
Of course this is counting FCS teams, and I don't see them passing Michigan either.
Yale is no threat to pass Michigan in all-time wins. They used to be number one (counting all divisions) until Michigan passed them in 2001. In the future, they are likely to keep dropping down the list, since they only play a 10 game schedule, do not participate in bowl games, and have averaged less than 6 wins per year over the past 15 years.
It's amazing how Mack Brown turned Texas around. They didn't do squat the 30 years before he was hired and they were the poster program for underachieving. If Michigan fans ever felt bad over an 8-4 or 9-3 season, we could always say, "Well, at least we're not Texas."
It's amazing they're just 50 wins behind us now.
If Boise state keeps its current pace, they could overtake the winning percentage in 15 years.
Boise State will probably go 8-4 in the Big East on a fairly regular basis. If Chris Petersen is smart enough to leave while he can still command a very nice contract at a football factory, they might end up a .500 team.
but I had forgotten about them--the fact that they've got such a high percentage and have played so few games means they could overtake us more quickly than anybody else but Notre Dame (at least, anyone that I've run the numbers for). I've updated the original post to reflect that.
Grand Valley State or Georgia Southern overtake us on winning percentage. Here is why:
GVSU and Georgia Southern have played far fewer games than Michigan, thus making it easier to boost their percentage for each game they win. If, for example, Michigan and GVSU were to win their next 35 games each (highly unlikely, but a decent example for simulation purposes), each team would have a total winning percentage of 75%.
This is likely because it would not mean that Michigan is failing, just that GVSU is doing well (which they are as of late). It is very probable that in 10 years GVSU will pass us on winning percentage.
There's a lot of things I worry about. A lot.
This isn't one of them.
I'm only concerned about the winning % of Team 133
Currently they are the leader... Have played 1/4 of the games, and obviously are in a weaker conference, but still are above us. Just found this out this year when d*cking around online... kinda sucks. Hopefully I'm missing something
From clicking on the Boise St link from within that table, it looks like the website isn't counting the years BSU was a I-AA team. Counting those lowers their win percentage considerably.
Win #900 will be coming this season, I think.
Assuming the world ends in December like I've been told it's supposed to, we'll be fine. Whoever's winning at the end of time wins. Go!
I re-ran the numbers and my numbers were a little off (I'm going to blame Excel's goal seek which seems to have called it good enough when the differences were small but not quite zero). Fortunately, they're off to our benefit. It'd actually take more games (7--again, us both losing that many and the other team winning that many) for ND to catch us in percentage and way more (23) for anyone else major (Oklahoma in that case). Texas, which I originally said was next would take 25. Boise State, as a successful team with much fewer games could actually do it with just 13, but I'm going to ignore them a little as a non-major team.
As a small bonus, Michigan State would need 172 games to beat us in percentage. That's 16.5 years where we do nothing but lose and they do nothing but win (they'd need 255 to catch us in number of wins).
Huzzah!
I think Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to believe him. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Michigan jerseys is a good start.
Something a bit OT but worth considering. If Michigan beats Alabama to start the 12 season, then our team would have beaten 3 of the top 6 programs all time (including Michigan) ....and also one of the most winningst programs since 1995 in Va Tech.
That would be an unprecedented win streak vs. top powers that i can recall in my lifetime.
March 23rd, 2012 at 10:39 AM ^
we should be granted bonus winning percentage points for that feat.
I'm in agreement with many here: There are far more important issues for which Brady and his bunch need to be concerned. Something that is not even remotely achievable in the next 25 years doesn't warrant our fear. Yeah, fine, the issue was brought up (again) for fodder. Time to refocus our talk about '12.