Alabama Def. vs Opponents' Off. Rankings (2011)
First a disclaimer - since the 2012 football season hasn't gotten underway yet, I had to use 2011 stats for this comparison. However, it was during the 2011 NCAA football season that I started getting a case of the red ass about this anyway.
I totally agree that the SEC, as a whole, has really good defensive teams. I feel like college football fans are beaten over the head with that on a fairly regular basis. What bothers me is that no one ever talks about the crappy offensive play that's going on in the SEC. (start the cause & effect debate here)
The OP last night from prevatt33 opened up this old wound, so I took a look at some offensive statistics on ESPN.
Alabama was touted as having the best defense in football last year, sent a bunch of players (several first rounders) to the NFL, etc.
Here's a look at the teams Alabama played last year, with their offensive ranking:
| Location | Opponent | Result | Ranked Offense |
| Home | Kent State | W 48-7 | 119 |
| Away | #23 Penn State | W 27-11 | 86 |
| Home | North Texas | W 41-0 | 105 |
| Home | #14 Arkansas | W 38-14 | 28 |
| Away | #12 Florida | W 38-10 | 98 |
| Home | Vanderbilt | W 34-0 | 88 |
| Away | Ole Miss | W 52-7 | 114 |
| Home | Tennessee | W 37-6 | 107 |
| Home | #1 LSU | L 9-6 OT | 57 |
| Away | Mississippi State | W 24-7 | 72 |
| Home | Georgia Southern | W 45-21 | FCS Opp. |
| SEC Championship | #24 Auburn | W 42-14 | 91 |
| National Championship | #1 LSU* | W 21-0 | 57 |
| Average: | 85.17 |
On average, their opponents ranked 85th in the country. That doesn't include an FCS (formerly 1AA) opponent. Alabama did play one top 50 offensive team last year, in Arkansas (#28), and held them to only 14 points. That is definitely worth noting.
As a comparison, I took a look at Michigan's opponents from last year:
| Location | Opponent | Result | Ranked Offense |
| Home | Western Michigan | 34-10 | 19 |
| Home | Notre Dame | 35-31 | 36 |
| Home | Eastern Michigan | 31-3 | 103 |
| Home | San Diego State | 28-7 | 32 |
| Home | Minnesota | 58-0 | 110 |
| Away | Northwestern | 42-24 | 34 |
| Away | #23 Michigan State | 28-14 | 35 |
| Home | Purdue | 36-14 | 59 |
| Away | Iowa | 24-16 | 62 |
| Away | Illinois | 31-14 | 73 |
| Home | #16 Nebraska | 45-17 | 58 |
| Home | Ohio State | 40-34 | 104 |
| Sugar Bowl | #11 Virginia Tech* | 23-20 OT | 24 |
| Average: | 57.62 |
To give this some perspective, the 57th ranked offense in the country last year was LSU. To be fair, LSU wasn't a great offensive team last year. The 85th ranked offense in the country last year was Miami of Ohio. Miami of Ohio was the 10th best defense in the MAC! That's, on average, the type of offensive team that Alabama played last year.
This post is meant to serve two purposes:
1 - debunk the myth that is "The Great SEC DEFENSE". They're good, but like most things SEC they're over-hyped.
2 - provide another reason to believe that, despite all of the experts' opinions, Michigan will win on Saturday night.
All things considered, I think Michigan's defense stacks up well against Alabama's.
You may continue your cause & effect debate below:
August 29th, 2012 at 9:01 AM ^
The problem with this analysis is that Alabama factors into the offensive ranking of every team they played in 2011. How good would these have offenses been if they weren't held from 0 to 14 by 'bama?
I'd bet they'd be about 10% better off, based on rough math. So there is still a gap, but not as wide as your analysis would indicate.
August 29th, 2012 at 9:19 AM ^
You are incorrect when you say they would be roughly 10% better off. You are saying that Bama held them all to absolutely no yards, which is obviously false. For instannce, let's say that Bama held most of their opponents to 250 yds, rather than their normal 350. That's a 30% reduction in offense, for one of twelve games.
The effect of playing Bama in one game is way less than you think. Even if Bama held every offense to no yards or points, the maximum effect they would have had on their opponent's offensive rankings would be by 8.3333%
August 29th, 2012 at 10:12 AM ^
Randomly picked Arkansas for an example:
- Last year Arkansas had 3,909 yards passing and 1,786 yards rushing (per ESPN.com's team page). Total yardage of 5,695 over a 13 game schedule, or 438 yards per game (475 yards per game if the Bowl Stats do not count).
- Last year Arkansas amassed 226 yards against Alabama.
- That is a 48% decline if stats include 13 games, or a 52% decline if stats include 12 games.
I rest my case.
August 29th, 2012 at 10:26 AM ^
Actually, I think you just rested my case. Let's say Arkansas got their normal 438 yds per game against Alabama. They would have ended up with 5907 yds on the year, rather than 5695. So Arakansas' offense suffered by a margin of abs(5695/5907-1)=3.6%. So, in the grand scheme of things, playing Alabama does not affect your offensive stats much at all.
August 29th, 2012 at 10:28 AM ^
you didn't pick Arkansas "randomly".
August 29th, 2012 at 10:44 AM ^
OK I picked Arkanas without knowing the stats, but did know "wow 14 points is low for them, given they had a decent offense last year I thought". You got me, gumshoe.
August 29th, 2012 at 10:28 AM ^
Yes, but that 48% decline is only what percentage of the total yards for the season? That's less than 4%.
August 29th, 2012 at 9:20 AM ^
"these have offenses been..." Strong with you the force is young Mr. Rager.
August 29th, 2012 at 9:13 AM ^
All those SEC teams had to play against that amazing SEC DEFENSE so, they would argue, that brings down all their numbers. I don't suppose there's anyway to get a tempo-free metric from the non-conference games for an entire conference then compare that is there?
August 29th, 2012 at 9:19 AM ^
I think that's a great idea. It'll require way more work than I'm willing to do, though.
August 29th, 2012 at 9:27 AM ^
are there any "tempo free" sytle football sites?!?!
August 29th, 2012 at 2:57 PM ^
All SEC football is "tempo free". BOOM MGOROASTED
August 29th, 2012 at 9:17 AM ^
@MrRager^^^You can say the same thing about our opponents.
August 29th, 2012 at 9:34 AM ^
Book it!
August 29th, 2012 at 9:35 AM ^
All of the above arguments are valid about both Alabama's D and our offense. However, I think the general take-home message here might be that the disparity between Bama and Michigan might not be as great as everyone thinks. I'm really getting tired of the "David vs. Goliath" theme surrounding this game.
August 29th, 2012 at 10:03 AM ^
Go Blue!
August 29th, 2012 at 9:45 AM ^
August 29th, 2012 at 9:52 AM ^
August 29th, 2012 at 10:06 AM ^
Skewed or biased, either way - separate WMU's scores versus their BCS conference opponents (Michigan, Illinois, UConn & Purdue); they scored 100 points against those four teams. Furthermore, their game against Michigan was called with 1:27 left in the 3rd quarter. It's very possible they would have scored more than 10 points had they played the full game.
WMU wasn't playing against top competition all year, but when they did face BCS level opponents (save your comments about UConn), they lost by an average score of 31-21. That's 21 points against teams who recruit significantly better players.
Say what you want about WMU, but I think they had a pretty good offensive team last year.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:25 PM ^
A Michigan man defuses hype with statistics. Love it.
Anyway, what's missing from this is the other side of the coin, namely how each offense stacked up against opposing defenses. How well Michigan stacks up against Alabama, and whether we are unfairly being labeled a huge dog in the game, is really dependent on an unbiased look at how our offense stacked up against solid defenses (you can claim 'Bama's D wasn't as epic as it would seem, but they were still a top D, and will still be a top 25 D when we play them), as well as a look at the reverse, how did 'Bama's offense do against a Michigan caliber D.
'Bama struggled offensively with Penn State a little. They would've still won, but sans turnovers on PSU's part, 'Bama didn't have a monster offensive output. The same goes for when they faced LSU. A good D that forces their offense to face a long field can hold them to under 24.
Conversely, Michigan's Offense was stymied by ND (1st 3 quarters), MSU, and VT. A good D can cause our offense to sputter. A solid run D can hold michigan to under 24.
I tend to feel that this game will be a low scoring affair. One of 'Bama's main strenghts is their depth, but depth isn't that important in game 1. Everyone will be completely healthy. This game will come down to turnovers (and by association, Denard's passing efficiency). If turnovers go in Michigan's favor, I could easily see Michigan get up by 14, and then hang on to win by 4. If they go in Alabama's favor, I think we end up losing by 10 to 17, depending on if we get some late garbage points or not.
August 29th, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^
Great point about our offense versus good defensive teams last year.
I'm going on the assumption (yeah, that's right) that Denard's growth, in year two of this offense, will put us over the top.
The games you referenced (ND, MSU VaTech) were mostly great games. Our defense kept us in the game and our offense (mostly) made plays at key times to put us over the top.
I think Denard's growth will prevent him from making the same mistakes that cost us the MSU game.
And in conclusion...Michigan wins 27-23!!!
Man, the closer this game gets, the more fired up I get.
Can I get a Rick Flair - Whhhewwww!!!
August 29th, 2012 at 1:15 PM ^
The main thign people are failing to see here is that this is not the 2011 Alabama defense. It's a completely different secondary, LB core and they also moved some guys around on their defensive line. They won't be a dominating defense the first game of the year. It's going to be the first meaningful snaps 70% of their defense has ever seen. It's going to be the first time they played in front of a packed stadium ( i'm sorry but mop up duty against Kent state doesn't count. Most of their fans probably left early anyways)
I wouldn't say ND's defense stymied Michigans offense. They did manage to score 35 points during the game. It was the first full game the offense had played under the new system and 3 quarters of growing pains is to be exspected. What also should be exspected is for Michigans offense to improve over last year
August 29th, 2012 at 1:27 PM ^
28 of which were scored in the foruth qtr in improbable fashion. They shut us down. As did MSU. And VaTech.
The stuff about Bama's D is legit rebuttal. But I can't see how Michigan's Offense is better off today than it was against VaTech. We're actually worse off. Saban and Co have had 7 months to scheme and prep for Michigan, dude...
Our Defense is worse off too. Their O? The line and QB are back, McCarron isnt a joke. Skill players...we all know how Bama recruits.
I'm looking for a game like the OSU game last year with us coming up short.
August 29th, 2012 at 3:00 PM ^
Look at the offense from the first game through the end of the season last year. Most of the improvement was from players learning the system and coaches understanding what their players where capable of. We've grown another year since that.
We lost 5-6 players who played a lot last year. The returning 16-17 are a year stronger, faster, smarter or whatever you want to say but they are all a year more familiar with our offense / defense.
Everyone is scared about our WR's since Hemmingway graduated but, Bama has an entirely new corp of receivers who wheren't good enough last year to play when their receivers where considered mediocre.
Their O line is scarey sure, A true sophmore Left tackle coming off a season ending injury, Jones who is playing his 3rd position on the line and 1rst year at center and 3 other behemoths. Their tailback missed most of their camps with an injury and is in questionable shape. They have just as many questions as we do. I'm not buying it that we can't win or whatever this defeastest crap is.
We scored on (and plenty ) some good defenses last year and even 2 of your 3 examples of defenses that "shut us down" we won the game.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:36 PM ^
This.
And I like our offense better than any SEC offense from 2011. I won't try to downplay how awesome Alabama's defense was last year. It was legitimately incredible. But it is not what we're going to see Saturday. Everyone's talking about Alabama's offensive line. What about ours? Three fifth year seniors and two fourth year juniors, one of whom will be picked in the first half of the first round of the draft if he wants to leave early. Our rushing attack has averaged 220+ yards per game for the past two years. We have arguably the best running QB in the history of football (it's either Denard or Tommie Frazier). We have a receiving corps that is at least as recruiting guru-approved as the guys who play for upper middle tier SEC teams like Auburn or Arkansas.
Two years ago, Alabama was replacing as much on defense as they are now. South Carolina beat them. Arkansas came really close. We are a legitimate underdog, but they aren't invincible.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:26 PM ^
Would be to use tempo free stats and compare how well Alabama did compared to other teams against those opponents. Either way, just taking an overall average is pretty useless when each team only plays about 12 other teams.
As I've been told about stats before: "Stats are like a girl in a bikini, what you see is nice and all, but what's underneath is what's really interesting." You can skew you stats to tell pretty much any story you want, but it's not always the truest or best way of showing the whole picture.
August 29th, 2012 at 2:28 PM ^
You can't completely disregard the offensive rankings for those teams that played Alabama in 2011.
Sure they're slightly affected by having played Alabama, but it's not as though they played Alabama (or even Alabama caliber defenses) every week. The majority of defenses (SC, Vandy, UT, UK, UF, Ole Miss, Ark., Miss. St.) in the SEC are not Alabama.
August 29th, 2012 at 3:06 PM ^
Alabama Opponent Offenses:
(Michigan 9)
Kent State 119
Penn State 81
North Texas 111
Arkansas 14
Florida 84
Vanderbilt 42
Mississippi 114
Tennessee 77
LSU 17
Mississippi State 88
Georgia Southern (FCS)
Auburn 47
LSU 17
Michigan Opponent Defenses:
(Alabama 1)
Western Michigan 95
Notre Dame 18
Eastern Michigan 82
San Diego State 62
Minnesota 106
Northwestern 85
Michigan State 6
Purdue 79
Iowa 44
Illinois 8
Nebraska 53
Ohio 22
Virginia Tech 31
Feel free to copy/paste wherever you want, anyone that wants to use this.
August 29th, 2012 at 2:56 PM ^
This whole discussion would have been much more interesting (and had more revealing data) if Bama and LSU had played teams from outside the SEC in their bowl games instead of each other.