2017 Preliminary Projected S&P+ Rankings
Bill Connelly has put out a preliminary projected 2017 S&P+ rankings after Signing Day. Uses recent history, returning production, and recruiting to make the rankings.
Michigan is #10. Our 2017 schedule:
Sept. 2 vs. Florida (Arlington, Texas) (#15)
Sept. 9 CINCINNATI (#75)
Sept. 16 AIR FORCE (#116)
Sept. 23 at Purdue* (#87)
Sept. 30 Open
Oct. 7 MICHIGAN STATE* (#44)
Oct. 14 at Indiana* (#39)
Oct. 21 at Penn State* (#8)
Oct. 28 RUTGERS* (HC) (#92)
Nov. 4 MINNESOTA* (#47)
Nov. 11 at Maryland* (#72)
Nov. 18 at Wisconsin* (#11)
Nov. 25 OHIO STATE* (#2)
On a side note in the fancy stats, Michigan has made a huge leap in the Program FEI Ratings (PFEI) to #6. PFEI is a weighted rating of FEI drive efficiency data and W/L record over last 5 years and is a fundamental component of their projections for preseason FEI.
I was a little surprised how low MSU was, but I guess a 3-9 season will do that to you, especially when it is replacing their 2011 11-3 year.
http://www.bcftoys.com/2016-pfei/
Big Ten + ND PFEI
3 Ohio State 60-6 .262
6 Michigan 40-24 .190
9 Wisconsin 46-19 .175
16 Penn State 40-24 .125
20 Notre Dame 43-21 .119
38 Northwestern 33-25 .074
39 Michigan State 43-20 .069
40 Iowa 35-25 .068
47 Nebraska 40-23 .056
49 Minnesota 33-28 .047
71 Indiana 21-37 -.012
93 Maryland 22-36 -.080
106 Illinois 15-41 -.117
112 Purdue 10-46 -.144
115 Rutgers 24-34 -.145
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:23 PM ^
The PFEI looks about right with MSU at 3-9 I mean 39.
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:28 PM ^
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:32 PM ^
I think they have taken as many QBs as Michigan in the last 2 recruiting cycles. But they have no upperclassmen QBs and Del Rio is going to be out for a while.
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:33 PM ^
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:36 PM ^
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:38 PM ^
I don't like the 2 year recruiting average of using 2017 and 2016 to project 2017. Aside from a few schools and a small % of players, most of 2017s kids sit across the country. To use something where 80% of the kids won't be playing or at most playing small minutes as part of 25% of your projection is a bit aggressive. For year 2017 using 2015 + 2016 class would have been more appropriate.
That said nothing shocking or new here - last year we thought it would be a 3 game season which was Iowa, OSU, and MSU. (Colorado ended up surprising to the upside, and MSU to the downside)
This year it's a 4 game season which is Florida, Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU.
It's going to be about how quickly this staff can get a lot of young people ready to play and avoiding a few key injuries such as starting DTs, any functional OL, etc.
Longer term with the loss of Wilson and addition of Debord Indiana goes from chaos team and now with the uptick in 'crooin, Maryland will probably be the next chaos team.
p.s. PSU is killing it in early 2018 'crootin; another 5 star RB just landed. They have 5 of the country's top 88 players already locked in.
p.s.s. I just noticed that Cal grad transfer OT just followed a bunch of MSU twitter accounts. Bugger. UMBIG - tell UM coaches to contact him!
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:43 PM ^
The problem with looking at 2015 rankings is that some of those players are already accounted for in returning production. I think possibly using a weighted average of the recruiting rankings may be a way to look at it.
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^
Or weight 2016 class much heavier than 2017 i.e. 75%/25%.
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:45 PM ^
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:49 PM ^
I am not saying 25% overall is not adequate, I am saying 12.5% attributed to a 2017 class makes no sense. At many schools 3-4 kids might play from 2017 and certainly not start or do much more than be a backup or special teams player.
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:42 PM ^
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:45 PM ^
We should have gotten OSU's schedule: OSU home alternating with MSU & PSU home in the following year.
February 3rd, 2017 at 10:57 PM ^
I'm still not convinced that PSU is back. Franklin lucked out in beating OSU, was down to IU in the 4th quarter, and couldn't get a TD against Rutgers until the 2nd half. They certainly could be good going forward, but I think it's still to early to say they should be alternate home games with OSU.
February 3rd, 2017 at 11:02 PM ^
I don't believe in James Franklin, but he is recruiting well and has a good team on paper for 2017. I think their program trajectory is better than MSU and the gap is widening between OSU, Michigan, & PSU from the rest of the division in recruiting.
February 4th, 2017 at 12:40 AM ^
February 4th, 2017 at 8:16 AM ^
February 4th, 2017 at 8:50 AM ^
but they did have some impressive victories (Iowa, Wisconsin) and I thought they'd get blown out in the Rose Bowl.
February 4th, 2017 at 2:39 PM ^
that was their most impressive of the year. OSU was, of course, easily the best collection of talent they beat. But they did that, as we all witnessed, as staying close enough, even though, and I'm guessing here, that OSU probably had a statistical edge in most of the usual categories. Then, BOOM, the type of play you need to finish your upset bid happenedand suddenly PSU, and as it turned out, earned the right to be considered a dangerous team.
It was the WI game though that proved more than any other game. The importance of that game, and what it could have done to both teams from a national persepctive was obvious. WI, by virtue of playing their best half of toofball all season, took a lead that caused me and most of my friends watching to come to the same conclusion at halftime. That was, of course, the PSU's streak had come to an end because that game, except finishing out that last 30 minutes was over. And what happened in those thirty minutes was the most important half of football Franklin has coached at PSU. The manner in which they came back, and based on WI's defensive prowess alone, should have been enough to easily protect a lead of that magnitude. But what PSU did was for more impressive that staying close enough to OSU to allow for a ST's blunder to give them their biggest victory in their new era of football. Then facing the only other team that was constantly discussed as being a completely different team that the one that started the year was USC, diplaying what to me, was a level of play equal to any other qb in the nation, including Watson's, because Sam's was done every weekend, without an outing that was clearly below the level he had been displaying. And as OP stated, when the trigger man is playing at an extremely high level, your chances for victory rise dramatically. I know I am making an analogy that is quite strong here, but Darnold's play at the collegiate level was close to that of Rodgers on the pro level. Sensing and avoiding the pressure he felt, he almost always allowed himself to manipulate the rush in a manner that allowed him to be in the absolute best position to throw the ball without being forced to throw it in a manner other than maximum power. That is one hell of a skill. Avoiding pressure is a great asset, but to do it, as if you are setting them up, always ending is a position to not be forced to throw in anytling less than your absolute maximum throwing motion is an ASSET+. And, of course, while a qb is scrambling. the defense will break down due to nothing more than the running theat an athlelic qb causes, almost always allows an eligible receiver to end up being virtually uncovered.
So hell yes, even a loss to a team, based on Arnold's emergence to complement a roster dotted with stars was impressive. I am not sure about Peters,but I know Harbaugh is aware of Dylan's athleticism, something he possessed as well,allows him to escape trouble in a manner most qbs can't. If he is able to, after avoiding such, finish it off it the same manner as Sam, we're in for some very exciting times. Being human, I despise PSU for the same reason many others do. Even though we are talking about an entirely different sfaff, players, etc., the ease with whch that fan base has sidestepped the questions, basically statements that paint them in the light they deserve does not set well with me. But on a purely football note, PSU is going to step into the role as 3rd best team in the east. I don't know McSorley's eligibility status, whether he has 2 or even 3 years left, but with the RB they are bringing in, they won't miss a beat with the departure of Barkley when that occurs. They will be dangerous.
February 4th, 2017 at 12:01 PM ^
February 3rd, 2017 at 11:02 PM ^
2016 season hypothetical: How do you think this past season would have played out if we had OSU at home and MSU & PSU on the road like OSU did this year?
Personally, I think Michigan would have gone 11-1 and in the playoff with the only loss to Iowa on the road.
February 3rd, 2017 at 11:26 PM ^
If The Game was at Michigan Stadium, we would have won by 10 points.
We would not have had refs trying to play up to the home crowd.
February 3rd, 2017 at 11:36 PM ^
I still point to the Iowa game as the game that changed the Big 10. We'd have been a 1 loss team with an overtime loss to OSU as our only loss, had we won at Iowa. OSU would have gone to the Big 10 championship game if that had happened. Had OSU won vs Wisconsin, then our only loss would have been to the Big 10 champion at home in overtime. We'd have gone to the playoffs in that scenario. Coulda shoulda woulda....
February 4th, 2017 at 5:05 AM ^
In that scenario I believe we would have won the East because we would have had the tiebreaker in the three way tie between us PSU and ohio.
February 4th, 2017 at 11:16 AM ^
No, OSU would have gone. PSU would have been knocked out of the 3-way tie with their additional loss, then it goes back to head-to-head between us and OSU. If our 1 loss was Iowa and we beat OSU, that's where we would have won the 3-way tie.
February 3rd, 2017 at 11:33 PM ^
February 3rd, 2017 at 11:55 PM ^
Shit, I never realized that '12-'17 UM and PSU have identical records. That's really depressing.
February 4th, 2017 at 12:06 AM ^
February 4th, 2017 at 8:18 AM ^
February 4th, 2017 at 8:59 AM ^
Actually, fancy stats have looked at one of those things you mentioned already.
February 4th, 2017 at 8:56 AM ^
Ill have more confidence if we get any OL transfers to Michigan, which is a strong possiblity. The OL is the engine for all our fancy nice new and returning high octance toys.
February 4th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^
Didn't expect to see Air Force that low, they are usually a top 50ish team.
February 4th, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
Air Force was hit hard by graduation. The service academies usually have a lot of turnover in their starting lineup, but they had an unusually large senior class of starters graduate. Low recruiting ranking also contributed to this. I think they will outperform this as the service academies are harder to quantify based on their different recruiting profile and systems, but I don't think this will be one of the better Air Force teams.
I think Brian covered this in one his posts recently, but Bill Connelly looked at returning production for FBS, and Air Force was dead last at #129. Michigan is #127 BTW.
February 4th, 2017 at 2:43 PM ^
Thing I hate is Wisconsin the week before Ohio State. Wisconsin is always physical. They'll wear you down. Defensively they'll expose you if you're offensive lineman aren't top notch. Beating Wisconsin and Ohio State in back to back weeks is a tough task for any team in the Nation based on the combined physicality of those games.
If Michigan survives week 1, they should be in good shape until Penn State. This is a young team with some new schemes so they'll be a lot better at the end of the season than the start. I expect them to beat Ohio State this year if they stay relatively healthy. Once their young recievers are consistent with their routes, they should put up a lot lot of points. Penn State will probably be the most difficult matchup this season because they'll test Michigan's young secondary more than Ohio State will and they have Michigan at home.