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The Monday Ten Goes on Vacation
Alex Cook •

tourneys

College basketball starts in earnest this week with a series of early-season holiday tournaments, where some Big Ten teams will face their staunchest tests so far this season. The destinations – Maui, NYC, Cancun, the Bahamas, Vegas – add an element of quirkiness that is singular to college basketball; fanbases from various corners of the country get to watch their teams play a few games in a unique environment over the span of a few days. It serves multiple purposes: teams get to go on vacation, often add quality opponents to their non-conference schedule, and practice quick turnarounds that they’ll later see in conference tournaments (and possibly the NCAA Tournament).

This week’s ten:

  1. First-round opponents
  2. Projecting second- and third-round opponents
  3. Five possible games I’d love to see
  4. James Blackmon, Jr. to the rescue
  5. Indiana wins a battle of extremes against SMU
  6. Tough opponents and expected losses
  7. Somebody rushes the court against Nebraska
  8. Penn State (barely) goes 2-1 in Charleston
  9. Chucker Watch
  10. Saluting Shannon Scott

* * *

1. First-round opponents

In an (admittedly arbitrary) order from most- to least-intriguing games. Rankings are via kenpom.com from late Sunday night.

  • 17. Michigan vs. 30. Oregon (11-24, 9:30, ESPN3)
  • 26. Maryland vs. 68. Arizona St. (11-24, 7:00, ESPNU)
  • 38. Purdue vs. 55. Kansas St. (11-24, 2:30, ESPN2)
  • 34. Minnesota vs. 47. St. John’s (11-26, 7:00, ESPNU)
  • 40. Illinois vs. 144. Indiana St. (11-28, 5:00, FS1)
  • 128. Rutgers vs. 86 Vanderbilt (11-28, 7:00, NBCSN)
  • 101. Northwestern vs. 248 Miami (OH) (11-25, 9:30, CBSSN)
  • 4. Wisconsin vs. 203. UAB (11-26, 7:00, AXS.tv)
  • 14. Michigan St. vs. 198. Rider (11-28, 6:30, ESPN2)

Monday features some of the best early matchups, as Michigan, Maryland, and Purdue each face their first real tests of the season. The Boilermakers face former Illinois coach, Bruce Weber, and Kansas State to kick off the Maui invitational: the Wildcats are coming off of an upset loss at Long Beach State. Maryland draws Arizona St.; neither team has been seriously tested by weak schedules thus far and both teams are featuring plenty of new faces all over the court. Michigan plays the late game against Oregon – a team that’s replacing nearly everyone from last season.

 

2. Projecting second- and third-round opponents

By using Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean value for each of the teams in a log5 simulation, I found the probability that a given team would face a certain opponent in the second and third rounds of their tournaments.

purtourneywistourney

umichtourneymartourneynwtourney

minntourneyilltourneyruttourney

msutourney

 

3. Five possible games I’d love to see

  1. Michigan St. vs. Kansas – Even though this matchup would likely require both teams to win their first two games, there’s still a very good chance due to the overall weakness of the rest of the field (outside of perhaps Tennessee). Both teams lost in the Champions Classic this past week – MSU fell to Duke and Kansas was obliterated by Kentucky – and could use an early-season win over a blue-blood as a morale boost.
  2. Wisconsin vs. Florida – Wisconsin will almost certainly beat UAB, so a favored Florida team needs to beat Georgetown. This would be the third meeting in the past three years between the Badgers and the Gators: in the 2012 season, Florida ran Wisconsin out of the gym in Gainesville and Wisconsin replied with the boa-constrictor treatment on the return trip. This would be Wisconsin’s first big challenge of the young season.
  3. Michigan vs. Villanova – Regardless of the first-round outcomes in the Legends Classic, Michigan will find itself facing a formidable opponent the night after a contest with Oregon. Villanova gets the slight nod as a preferable opponent here because Michigan recently faced VCU (and the superb 2012 team dominated) and because Villanova lost just four games last year – two of which came in the form of blowouts at the hands of Creighton, a three-point happy team like Michigan.
  4. Illinois vs. Baylor – I’m high on the Illini and a matchup between backcourt transfers Ahmad Starks and Aaron Cosby against Baylor’s diminutive guard tandem would be fun. Illinois would need to prove that its presumably resurgent three-point shooting can hold up against Baylor’s bizarre sort of matchup zone that only makes sense to Scott Drew. Illinois would get open looks, and we’d see if they can hit them. Plus we get a rematch of this game.
  5. Purdue vs. Arizona – If nothing else, this would be an excellent measuring stick for A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas; Purdue’s big men – particularly the frustrating and inconsistent Hammons – could have a great chance to prove themselves against one of the nastiest frontcourts in college basketball. A loss here would be expected (and not at all harmful), while a win would be the type of resume-builder that could propel the Boilermakers into the tournament come March.

[AFTER THE JUMP: running down the week that was in the Big Ten]

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