there is literally nothing that i don't hate right now

Seth • November 26, 2018 • 4:09am

1 hour and 2 minutes

The Sponsors

This show is presented by UGP & The Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan nobody would get our jokes. Our other sponsors are also key to all of this: HomeSure Lending, Peak Wealth Management, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, the University of Michigan Alumni Association, Michigan Law Grad,Human Element, and Lantana Hummus

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1. Whatever That Was

starts at 1:00

Maybe we weren't trying to win, maybe our goal here was Urban Meyer's redemption.

2. The Defense

starts at 12:46

What the even?

3. So, Basketball

starts at 27:32

Wow this part actually made us feel good for a moment. Livers allows Michigan to play five out and unlock their switching skills, reminds us a little of Roby. If you don't want that Michigan you have to play Teske. Eli Brooks: Surprise Microwave.

4. How to Pronounce Zebra

Starts at 47:39

Northern or "Winners" grits starts with regular grits but I mix in garlic and cheese. Then I add a sunny side up egg, mushrooms, grilled onions, and feta cheese. Got it from The Bomber in Ypsi. David cooks eggs a bad way.

MUSIC

"Scars"—Papa Roach
"Stella Was a Driver"—Interpol
"Shake the Sheets"-Ted Leo and the Pharmacists
“Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS

Beat Michigan, beat wives, it's all the same thing

253

Neck Sharpies: Let's Talk About the Calls

Seth •

Why?

What, are you worried Spartans are gonna be all "Typical Wolverines, whining about the refs."?

Well, yeah.

[Interference on Desmond.gif] [Spartan Bob stops the clock.gif] [etc.] Things that happen happened. Plus can you name a Spartan anyone actually takes seriously?

Chris Vannini.

Granted. But is this hypothetical Spartan in your life Vannini, or this Youtube commenter?

Wow. That's— uh, that is…

…a person whose opinion does not matter.

I was going to say my brother-in-law. But they outgained us!

Special teams matter.

Indeed.

Dude.

Still can't we be above blaming the refs? Steel in the spine and all that. It won't change the outcome of the game. At most we'll get an apology from the Big Ten that's worth exactly as much as Rutgers in a post-cable bundling media landscape.

Nice one. I'm not making a "Michigan should have won…" argument, because every play matters. The last play had a huge effect on the outcome. Connor Cook throwing perfect back shoulder passes and Aaron Burbridge being an NFL-caliber receiver was very relevant. Jake Rudock being bad at deep balls was relevant. If they'd won, Michigan's stops on 4th downs were relevant. All of it is relevant, and the game, as they say, is over.

So then what's the point?

The point is to assess how good this Michigan team is at football. IE were they significantly better than a Michigan State team that nearly lost to Purdue and Rutgers, and was absent its Rimington-quality center plus half the legs of its bookends, and is fielding a pretty awful secondary. But I'm also doing this for some more personal reasons:

For myself, and for posterity, I want a thorough canvassing of the things I saw and thought I saw.
I want to point out where the refs are getting a bad rap. Not everything we thought we saw was a legit gripe, and some of the legit gripes may have been hard for human refs to see in real time. Since complaining is inevitable, let's get it right.
Right now I feel like a truck ran over my dog and then half of the people in my life came over to gloat as if they were driving this truck. This is part of my healing process.

And you're going to show we got hosed?

Can't promise it. That was my certainly biased hypothesis in the stadium, but I'm not going to be able to find every incremental hold and would-be pass interference. I want to tackle the things people were talking about.

How?

Clip the plays people bitched about, watch the hell out of them, gauge the relative expectations we should have for the officials on those plays, and use the Markov Drive Analysis tool to calculate a rough expected points swing.

Markov?

This tool is based on NFL drives but it serves for what we're doing here. It gives you a basic expected points for every down, distance, and field position. For example if you have 1st and goal on your opponent's one yard line, the expected points is 6.32. A 4th and 10 on your 40 is about zero.

If I've left out any plays (including and especially those where something went Michigan's way) let me know and if I deem it worthy I'll add it to the post.

I'd rather not be part of this.

Then don't hit...

[The jump]