stop recruiting corners from the benthic zone

The freshman class that Michigan signed last week is ranked 17th in the 247 composite rankings, 17th to Rivals, and 19th to On3, The class has, pending their pursuit of 5-star Nyckoles Harbor in the later signing period, zero top-100 players. This is quite clearly below the level Michigan normally recruits at.

To have a class like that after a second straight year of beating Ohio State by three scores, winning the Big Ten championship, and going to the Playoff is, without question, a disappointment. I'm one of the people who kept saying over the first half-decade of Harbaugh that beating Ohio State was the key to unlocking a higher level of recruiting. So far, it has not.

This has led to two major questions about the 2023 class, which might be seen as the optimistic and pessimistic versions of the same question:

• Pessimist: Why is a 13-0 Michigan recruiting like 8-5 Michigan?
• Optimist: Is this class like the 2018 class?

Every other question is another form of what this all signifies. Is Michigan doing something wrong? Is Michigan systemically disadvantaged in a new pay-for-play world? Was this wound self-inflicted, bad luck, overstated, or even worth discussing? Is Warde Manuel a second Fritz Crisler who's too cheap, too conservative, and too obstinately attached to outdated ideals of amateurism to keep up in a landscape rapidly reshaping to a new more capitalist order, while simultaneously too revered to be dispensed with?

I can't answer all of that. But I can tell you what happened with the 2018 class, and what that means for the very similar 2022 class.

[After THE JUMP: the 2018 recruiting tag is revived]

Previously in 2021: The Story. Podcast 13.0A. Podcast 13.0B. Podcast 13.0C. 5Q5A Offense: 2021. Last year: 5Q5A Defense: 2020. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams.

As with the offense, we are going from saddest question towards hope.

1. Do they give up 100 to Ohio State?

Not a great matchup [Bryan Fuller]

The standard has been set: If Ryan Day’s offense can’t score 100 on Michigan’s defense this year with the kind of talent they’ve acquired, he is a failure and Ohio State must jettison all of their coaches and start over. Can the Wolverines do anything to make sure that happens?

We had an entire article in HTTV about the ways Ohio State, Alabama, and Clemson have broken the game. I could show you all the data to demonstrate that those schools’ advantages are well beyond anything even in the top-heavy history of college football. It’s certainly not fun. And the people in charge aren’t even smart enough to understand it’s a problem. Michigan could “sell its soul” to be like Ohio State and it wouldn’t change the math. Kirby Smart’s Georgia is in the running for the scuzziest program in the history of the game, recruits like bonkers in the best place to do it, and even they haven’t broken through.

But we don’t really need to overcome the systemic rot of a thoroughly broken institution. We need to win a college football game. Which is way, way more doable. Last year’s Buckeyes beat IU by a touchdown, and they were in a dogfight with Northwestern until turnover luck turned both games. Penn State played them close in 2019. The year before that Ohio State got boat-raced by Purdue, barely beat Penn State and Nebraska, and needed a guy named Piggy to miss an open receiver in the endzone to not surrender the Big Ten East title to Michigan a week before The Game. The last time they visited Ann Arbor, Michigan had the ball down 2 scores with 12 minutes to go and the blocking to make it 1 score. Also JK Dobbins dribbled the ball. College football games are dumb, and Ohio State has been riding a wave of good fortune as effectual as the bad luck that’s plagued Harbaugh. We reject this because human brains would rather shape information into nonsense than accept the existence of no sense. But luck is just luck.

And here comes my one crazy statement: I think Mike Macdonald probably gives Michigan a better chance of winning a dumb football game against Ohio State than Don Brown, or at least Macdonald’s philosophy does, because it ratchets up the degree to which the result is determined by luck. I don’t believe Michigan upgraded DCs—Brown deserved his fate but he’s still a coaching legend while Macdonald is a first-time coordinator. Don Brown’s system made the ultimate sense: I dare you to beat my players at something hard. Most college teams didn’t have the talent to do that to Michigan’s talent and that led to elite performances. But even at BC, when the talent ledger angled enough the other way, Brown’s defenses got rolled.

Offenses are at such an advantage these days (for regulatory as well as schematic reasons) that anybody’s defense can get shredded no matter the talent. The smart coaches long ago learned to shift their understanding of the game from a military perspective of winning field position to the basketball paradigm of winning possessions.

Macdonald’s philosophy—or at least the Grantham/Ravens ideas he comes from—is more of a gamble. I dare you to find where I left the weak spot…NOPE NOT THERE!

Ohio State with Justin Fields could break those traps on the regular, but Ohio State with CJ Stroud? It could work. A lot of young NFL quarterbacks threw mistakes into the amorphous fronts that the Ravens showed. And this has nothing to do with the front; the way they play zone is to risk having guys out of position by having fast defensive backs get to places they weren’t supposed to threaten by alignment.

They can probably get away with that with Dax Hill.

Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and the other mercenaries who can’t name a non-athlete graduate of the university they’re loosely affiliated with will get theirs. They're extremely talented, well-coached, hyper-football-focused players who are better than our players. In 2019 Ohio State scored a TD on 8/11 non-garbage drives against Michigan. If you can get that down to 5/11 by putting more of the game the outcome of dice rolls, do you care that those five came on coverage busts instead of a dusted cornerback? This is how Indiana approached it as well, and with even luck they win a title. If you want a nonsensical result, ratchet up the nonsense. The worst that can happen is you still lose 98-39, which isn’t going to cut it for Ryan Day.

That’s all I’ve got.

[After THE JUMP: More dumb football.]

FORMATION NOTES: MSU was still very MSU in this game, alternating between shotgun and single-back formations from under center. They frequently looked like crack-sweep era Harbaugh, although no crack sweeps came out:

Michigan is in a four man front with Barrett (23) lined up as a SAM; this was their most common look but they used their usual  array of three man fronts with a lot of weird stuff that doesn't work very well. Safety count and depth varied wildly. You'll note that on the above snap Michigan's deepest player is at seven yards.

For much of the second half they were two-high and shot someone down; cover two safeties getting over the top of routes at the sideline did not happen.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: On the DL, Paye and Hutchinson were almost omnipresent. Vilain and Upshaw got avfew snaps each. Ojabo also got in but as a SAM. DT rotated between Kemp, Jeter, Hinton, and Welschof with Kemp by far the most used.

VanSumeren got 15 snaps as the 3-3-5 SAM; as mentioned Ojabo was out there as a SAM but only on passing downs.

At LB, Ross and McGrone ominpresent until McGrone went out, and then Shibley was in for McGrone the whole way. Similar situation at viper, where Barrett got almost every snap until going out late; Solomon got the last few drives.

In the secondary, Hill, Green, and Hawkins got every snap. Gray got replaced by Perry in the third Q. Paige got a dozen or so snaps as a fifth DB.

[After THE JUMP: I have no expectation you will click, it's okay]