roman hemby
Michigan heads out on the road for the final time in the 2023 season on Saturday, heading to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins. The crowd will presumably be filled with Michigan fans as the Terps haven't given their side a ton to cheer about this season. The team is 6-4 and bowl eligible, which is nice, but hopes for a 9 or even 10 win season (with an upset or bowl win) have crumbled to pieces due to disappointing losses against Illinois and Northwestern. Does Maryland's offense have much left in the tank to threaten the Wolverines this weekend? Let us find out:
The Film: The two best defenses Maryland has played this season are Penn State and Ohio State. While the PSU game was more recent, I opted for OSU because 1) The Game is next week and we need to continue to compile advance scouting and 2) Maryland's showing was much better against the Buckeyes than the Nittany Lions and I am a firm believer in scouting teams at their best, not their worst.
Personnel: Click for big.
Michigan will face Taulia Tagovailoa for the third straight season, the only opposing QB this season to accomplish that feat. Taulia is back and is more or less the same for the Terps, still capable of excellent, NFL-level throws and also terrible decisions. He's still scrambly and mobile, though he has seemed to regress back to his 2021 form somewhat, running backwards into more egregious sacks than he did last season. He is far from a perfect QB, but he's the best Michigan has seen this season by a country mile (not a high bar), which earns him the star. Last year we saw Tagovailoa come out of the game due to injury and that backup, Billy Edwards Jr., is still around. He has been used on wildcat short yardage packages this year, as an FYI.
The running back position features the same characters as last year, with Roman Hemby still around as the starter and joined in the backfield by Antwain Littleton II and Colby McDonald in the rotation. I was a fan of Hemby's last year but I didn't see too much from him in this game to earn that status. He's not bad, just fine in my viewings this season. Blitz pickups have been an issue for him this season but he's still a speedy straight-line runner who also catches a fair number of balls out of the backfield. McDonald's 6.7 YPC clip is best on the team, though Littleton leads him in carries with 61. At 232, Littleton is the heavy back, while Hemby and McDonald are slimmer and quicker.
After a few years of incredibly deep wide receiver rooms, this year's Maryland team is a bit thinner on the outside. They did return their statistical best receiver from last year, Jeshaun Jones, and have two other 500+ receiving yard receivers in Tai Felton and Kaiden Prather. The raw talent isn't as dynamic as years past when you had the likes of Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus, but these are three of the most prolific receivers in the conference, largely because Maryland is one of the only teams that attempts to throw the ball with regularity. I think Jones is the best of this group, not really a true star but pretty close to it. All three WRs are 6'1" or taller, so this week will give Michigan's pass defense some solid reps. Those three players get most of the snaps at wideout, but slot Octavian Smith and outside WR Tyrese Chambers mix in occasionally too.
Maryland mostly plays with one TE, Corey Dyches. He has 42 catches, second on the team and only a nose behind Jones, acting as Tagovailoa's security blanket. Dyches is not a dynamic threat nor a leaper with size to be confused with Colston Loveland (Dyches is only 6'2), but he's rock solid at running a 5-10 yard route and sitting down in the zone for a quick completion. The other TE of note is Preston Howard, only 10 catches on the season as more of a blocking option. Most of his snaps come in Maryland's occasional 12 personnel sets. Neither Howard nor Dyches are particularly great blockers.
My biggest concern with the Terrapin offense coming into the season was the offensive line after losing four starters off last year's squad and planning to fill them with low-level up transfers. Surprisingly, my fears have not quite come to pass. Let's be clear, the resulting OL has not been good, but it also hasn't been terrible, which was my baseline expectation. Delmar Glaze, last year's RT, is the lone returning starter and has shifted over to left. He's been alright, pretty good in the game I charted against OSU but very poor against the elite rush threats of PSU.
The story of the Maryland OL has been rotation, as eight different linemen have played at least 290 snaps and started at least three games. Glaze at LT is the only player to start every game at the same spot, while the rest has been moving around. At C it's either Aric Harris or Teddy Purcell, but Harris is definitely the better of the two (Purcell started against OSU and was very poor). The RT is normally Gottleib Ayedze, a transfer from D2 Frostburg State who I had grave concerns about in the preseason. He's been better than I expected but is a long way from being good. Sometimes Ayedze slides to G when Andre Roye Jr. or Connor Fagan come in at tackle, both of whom are not ready for primetime.
The G spots have most frequently been NC Central transfer Corey Bullock (has played both LG/RG) and Amelio Moran, the latter of whom has been a weak spot for the "starting line". Another G in the mix is Kyle Long, who got extensive work against OSU and was bad. In other words, this line is a hodgepodge, rotating quite a bit but the best five linemen can generally hang in there. The more the dig into the depth, the worse it gets.
[AFTER THE JUMP: the clips]
Every college football game is its own story, with its own heroes and challenges. You can generalize and expect this guy or that guy to go off, but sometimes they don't. The transitive property of sports doesn't work in college football for this reason. A team can be flat one week and then play up the next week. Michigan fans who have watched the last 15 years of the rivalry with Michigan State should know this all too well. Whether today's game was a subpar effort for Michigan, or an above average performance from Maryland, or perhaps a reflection of who these teams really are, all that will be known in the future. For now, Michigan survived Maryland 34-27 at home and are 4-0 on the 2022 season. That's all we know and no win should be taken for granted.
The first 10 seconds looked like a romp developing. Maryland's Tai Felton fumbled the opening kickoff and Michigan's Matt Hibner recovered it at the 10 yard line. On the first play from scrimmage, JJ McCarthy found Luke Schoonmaker in the end zone for a TD. Not too often you find yourself up 7-0 eight seconds into the game in a game where you were the team kicking off. Famed author John U. Bacon sent his usual "go mow the lawn" tweet, which typically signifies the game being over, after that opening TD. Technically he was correct in terms of which team won the game, but what it alluded to, a Michigan blowout, was incorrect.
Maryland made that clear on the next drive. The Terps had a good answer for the Wolverines, driving into Michigan territory and setting up their kicker, Chad Ryland, with a 53-yard FG attempt. The former EMU kicker found himself at home kicking footballs in Washtenaw County, drilling the long attempt. 7-3 Michigan. That drive also began a theme that would persist in the first half: Michigan mistakes. The Wolverines had a chance to get off the field on a 3rd down and got pressure. Jaylen Harrell knocked the RT into QB Taulia Tagovailoa's lap, but then grabbed Tagovailoa's facemask, nullifying a drive-ending throwaway.
[Patrick Barron]
The Wolverines got the ball for their first proper drive and looked very solid. They alternated between chunk runs for Blake Corum and short stuff through the air via the right arm of JJ McCarthy. Unfortunately, that pattern began to erode when Luke Schoonmaker dropped a ball on a comebacks route. On 3rd & 5 from the Maryland 34, McCarthy was unable to find an open receiver against the Maryland zone, firing the ball to a decently well-covered Cornelius Johnson, which fell incomplete. Jake Moody did his part to add to the stellar kicking by nailing a 52-yard FG. 10-3.
Maryland's offense continued in rhythm with another answer. They gained solid yardage on the ground and mixed in plenty of neat schematic stuff. Slip screens, RPO slants, and a crafty triple option play which Tagovailoa executed with a shovel pass that worked perfectly. Michigan aided the Terps yet again, though, as Rayshaun Benny's beautiful swim move to set up a stuff on 3rd & 1 didn't come to fruition when Benny was unable to make the tackle. Tagovailoa's legs also came up big on the drive, with the Maryland QB picking up a clutch 3rd & 8 on a scramble to set up first and goal in close. On the second try, Antwain Littleton punched it in and the visitors had tied it at 10.
The flow of solid offense continued. Michigan marched right down the field on the legs of Corum, but then lifted Corum for a quick breather. On came true freshman CJ Stokes, who fumbled on his first carry, losing control of the ball without a discernible punch and Maryland recovered. A couple sizable gains by the Terps sent them the other way, including a concerning play that saw Kalel Mullings get stomped on by the RB Littleton when in position to make a tackle, but Mazi Smith's TFL ended the drive. Again faced with a 50+ yard FG, Ryland nailed it with little trouble to give the Terrapins their first lead, 13-10.
[Patrick Barron]
Michigan's offense began to sputter at this juncture. A trick play in which Ronnie Bell was supposed to throw it went awry, and then JJ McCarthy missed an open Roman Wilson for a possible TD. Maryland got the ball back, drove some more, but a phenomenal individual effort from DJ Turner ended the drive with an interception off Tagovailoa. Replays showed that it may not have been a catch, but the play was never formally reviewed. Michigan's took the ball and drove again, in part due to a circus scramble from McCarthy, but that same sort of play hurt the team when he took a devastating -15 yard sack. The sack set Jake Moody up for a much more difficult 43-yard FG, which the normally reliable kicker shanked to keep the score at 13-10.
The Wolverine defense did their job to force the first Maryland punt of the game and the Michigan offense got a chance to seize a lead, or at least tie it, before halftime. With 1:36 remaining and positioned on their own 30 yard line, McCarthy got himself back in sync with his receivers. He connected twice to Cornelius Johnson and found Luke Schoonmaker once, before another missed deep shot put Michigan in a 4th & 1 situation at the 33 yard line. Blake Corum rose to the occasion, being given a running lane and turning it into a house call. That touchdown with 22 seconds left put Michigan up 17-13 and they'd carry that lead into the break.
Second half adjustments came for both teams. On the offensive side, Michigan doubled down on their commitment to run the ball, while the defense began to dial up more pressure. The former came with mixed results. Michigan got the ball out to midfield via Corum's legs but a confusing decision to run on 3rd & 4 was unsuccessful and the Wolverines punted. On the next offensive series, they'd run two more times before facing McCarthy with a 3rd & 8 inside his own 20, which the young QB was unable to convert after refusing to pull the trigger and taking a sack.
[Patrick Barron]
The defensive adjustments had more success. Maryland continued to use their blitz-beater plays, screens and such, but a big hit by Mike Morris on Tagovailoa left the Maryland QB injured and more or less ended the series. Jaylen Harrell got home on the next play against backup QB Billy Edwards and forced a throwaway. Tagovailoa returned for the next series, but again it was pressure that made the difference. Eyabi Okie forced a dangerous throw that was a shoulda-been-INT, dropped by Mike Sainristil. Maryland punted nontheless.
After each team had had the ball twice, Michigan finally got on the board in the second half. McCarthy continued to struggle with his deep shots, but he was poised and accurate underneath, connecting for 5-10 yard completions to keep the offense moving. He found Roman Wilson open for a 20 yard touchdown to close the drive and Michigan asserted control of the game with a 24-13 lead.
Maryland answered with a quick score, showing they wouldn't go away. A terrific playcall on 4th & 1 saw the Terps run a screen to the edge that exploited Michigan's aggressiveness trying to stop the run, and then Tagovailoa uncorked his best throw of the game. On the run evading pressure, Tagovailoa flipped his hips and feathered a perfect ball over the arms of Mike Sainristil to an open TE Corey Dyches to get Maryland inside the 10. On second and goal, a mesh concept play resulted in a Maryland touchdown to a wide open receiver. They went for two to cut it to three, but pressure on Tagovailoa forced a risky throw that Sainristil didn't drop. 24-19.
[Bryan Fuller]
At this point, there were just over nine minutes left in the game, and a good Michigan drive could help get the game to the finish line. The Wolverines were quickly in a 3rd & 6 situation but McCarthy finally connected on a deep ball, a bomb to Ronnie Bell that got Michigan into field goal range. The drive would fizzle out after two rushing plays and a near-interception (the Maryland corner came down out of bounds), but Jake Moody drilled a 38 yard FG to put Michigan ahead 27-19 with 6:28 left.
Though Tagovailoa had played a very good game up to this point, he made the backbreaking mistake that has too often defined his college football career. On 2nd & 4 from the 31 yard line, Tagovailoa missed an open receiver underneath, opting to heave the ball into double coverage that allowed RJ Moten to make a spectacular tip drill interception and give Michigan full control of the game.
The Wolverines began running the ball to drain the clock and force Maryland to call timeouts, eventually resulting in a 3rd & 3 from the Maryland 47 yard line with 3:40 remaining in the game. Maryland had the run between the tackles stuffed but good blocks from Joel Hongiford and Ryan Hayes sealed the left edge. Blake Corum bounced and galloped into the end zone. 34-19 Michigan and the game was more or less on ice.
Maryland, to their credit, didn't quit until the bitter end. With backup QB Billy Edwards back in the game, perhaps to preserve Tagovailoa's health, they converted two 4th & longs and a 3rd & 21 on a scramble by Edwards. Kalel Mullings got lost in coverage and Maryland scored a touchdown with 45 seconds remaining in the contest. They'd also pick up the two point coverage on a screen to Jeshaun Jones, narrowing the score to 34-27. Unfortunately, they had exhausted all their timeouts and after Colston Loveland recovered the onside kick, two kneel downs ran out the clock for a Michigan victory.
[AFTER THE JUMP: A quick statistical summary]
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