rocky lombardi

Week #2 of FFFF kicks off today with NIU's offense. Michigan's (seemingly) weakest opponent actually has had a rather interesting seasonto date, knocking off a power five opponent in week one (Georgia Tech) and then playing in an absolutely crazy game last week against Wyoming, one that saw the Huskies score 43 points and come back from 42-16 down, yet still lose. Thomas Hammock's team seems rather intriguing as they prepare to head to the Big House this weekend, even if it is not entirely clear whether they are substantially better than their offseason projections, ones that saw them rank at the bottom of most of The Enemy pieces I wrote in August. Today we will take a look at the offense, featuring an old foe at QB in Rocky Lombardi, and a collection of mostly unfamiliar faces at the other positions. 

The Film: For this one I did choose to go with the Georgia Tech game. Though the 50-43 shootout with Wyoming would have been entertaining to break down, it's less useful because even though GT is a bad power five team, they are still closer in terms of talent to Michigan than Wyoming is. So, let's go with the Yellow Jackets, but it's important to keep a couple things in mind: this is not the Paul Johnson GT teams of yonder. In fact, Georgia Tech hasn't been good for a few years now. They were 6-16 over Geoff Collins' first two seasons entering this one and particularly for this piece, GT's defense was real bad last season. In 2020, GT was 110th out of 128 teams in scoring defense and a similar 109th in total defense. For reference, they ranked similarly to Illinois last season defensively, and remember, Illinois' 2020 defensive catastrophe is why we no longer get to enjoy the spectacle of Lovie Smith's beard in the B1G. So when I say that NIU scored 22 points and gained 300 yards against Georgia Tech, it's important to note that was a good showing by the Yellow Jackets defensively given last season. It was still not enough to win, though. 

Personnel: Click for big: 

Yep, the Huskies are rolling Rocky Lombardi out there at QB, the ex-Spartan and owner of the greatest football name of all-time. He hands it off to one of two dudes, speedy RB Harrison Waylee or slower RB Clint Ratkovich. Those two guys will get nearly all of the carries for NIU, with Waylee getting significantly more than Ratkovich. Hammock's team does like to use a FB, Brett Bostad. He didn't have any carries in the game I saw, though, and he does not appear in the Wyoming box score. That said, Bostad will be out there in short-yardage situations as a blocker only. 

At receiver, Tyrice Richie is the favorite target, leading the team with 7 receptions through the first two games. He will be used on the occasional running play too, getting a pair of carries in the game I saw. Cole Tucker wasn't a major part of the GT game, but then raked in 6 catches for 72 yards against Wyoming. Similarly, Trayvon Rudolph had just 1 catch in the GT game, and though he only had 2 against Wyoming, those went for 65 total yards on the back of a 40-yard TD reception so it's worth mentioning him. The WR group is rounded out by Messiah Travis, who has had one ~20 yard catch in each of the first two games. NIU likes to roll with two and three TE's, but Miles Joiner is the only main receiving target of them and he's not exactly Cade Otton. NIU tends to like him in the flat. Liam Soraghan and Tristen Tewes are more of blocking TE's. 

The OL returns four starters and is a stable unit. Only center Brayden Patton had any real buzz about him entering the season and this group generally graded out poorly in PFF's data. As you will see, I thought they had a good game against GT, and thought that RG Logan Zschernitz stood out in particular as a pulling guard on some of their better running plays. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Huskies are pest-control... because they KILL Yellow Jackets]

Content note: Some readers may know me from my work on hockey and softball over the past years, but I have been lucky enough to be hired by Brian recently to write about football and basketball, so readers who focus mostly on those sports will start to get acquainted with me pretty quickly here. For those unfamiliar, I'm a recently graduated Michigan alum and you can follow me on Twitter at @Alex_Drain. For my first football piece, I'm picking up a series that has been run on this site in the past, ranking Michigan's opponents based on positional groups. Today we start with QB. 

Quarterbacks have always been important in football, but with each passing year (pun intended, I suppose), they become more and more crucial to the collegiate game. With the likes of Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray dominating college football in recent years, the connection between elite teams and elite quarterbacks could not be clearer in the NCAA game. It's incredibly difficult to compete for a title in 2021, B1G or national, without having great QB play, and so we begin this series looking at the most important position on the field. The good news for Michigan is that there really aren't many good QB's on the schedule this year, as the Big Ten's quarterback cupboard has become rather barren. The bad news is that the Wolverines are one of those teams with a lot of uncertainty in the cupboards. Let's dive in with the school that most obviously comes to mind when you think of great quarterbacks. I'm talking of course about Indiana. 

Michael Penix Jr. sits atop our list [IU Athletics]

1. Indiana

So, yeah. IU is not really known as a football powerhouse, but what Tom Allen has done in Bloomington has been nothing short of masterful, and last season's 6-1 regular season was the cherry on top. One of the big keys to last season's success for the Hoosiers was star QB and the holder of the B1G's most unfortunate last name, Michael Penix Jr. Penix has played 12 games over the last two seasons and has been nothing short of excellent, throwing for 24 TD's to just 8 INT's, with a 61.6% completion percentage. His performance in Columbus against the Buckeyes last season fully justifies his spot at the top of the conference among QB's, throwing for 491 yards and 5 TD's, while turning it over just once. In those 12 games that Penix has played in 2019 and 2020, the Hoosiers are 10-2, a sterling record for a program whose historical baseline is far below that. 

Penix is an unusual QB because he's a lefty, one with a cannon for an arm that can launch the ball down the field off his back foot and fit the football into tight windows. Accuracy isn't always perfect, but Penix makes things happen and is the key to unlocking the Indiana offense, taking it to higher levels than were possible with the boring and steady Peyton Ramsey. That's why Penix's health is so crucial, and it's the one thing that has held back his career up to this point. He played just three games in 2018 before an ACL tear wiped out his year and forced him to take a redshirt. Then Penix played six games in 2019 before an injury to a part of the body I didn't know existed (the right sternoclavicular joint) put him out for the year, and then his 2020 season ended a few games early due to a second ACL tear. Indiana maintains that Penix is going to be ready for the fall season and is on track to start the opener, but his health is so important to the team. When Penix plays, he's money. But it's getting to the point with Penix where we just have to conclude that he's the kind of terribly snakebitten guy you don't want climbing on ladders or being around mirrors. Which is a bit strange, because Penix isn't terribly mobile. He doesn't run much (except when it's to beat Penn State), and in theory shouldn't be so injury prone. Yet he has been. 

What keeps IU at #1, though, is they have a viable backup option should Penix go down for the fourth straight season, Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was a top 200 composite recruit of Utah back in the 2018 class who transferred to Indiana in 2019. He stepped in to play when Penix got hurt near the tail-end of last season and was fine, posting a 61.1% completion clip with 2 TD and 1 INT to beat Wisconsin and Maryland, but the Hoosiers lost to Ole Miss in the bowl game. Tuttle is not Penix, but Tuttle is still a better backup than a lot of teams have, and that's good insurance if their star goes down. But for the Hoosiers to have any chance of coming out of the B1G East, they need 12 healthy games from Penix. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More QB's!] 

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

We start, as is tradition, with quarterback. We start there, as is tradition, with the enemy of enemies. Presumed starter is listed in bold, others are in italics.

TIER I: F*** YOU, KIRBY SMART

1. Ohio State

Justin Fields is back. Nothing else needs to be said to justify OSU's placement in a tier of their own. He's a Heisman candidate (again) and potential top-five pick after this season.

If you're searching for a glimmer of hope, the backup situation is dicey. Senior Gunner Hoak was an emergency transfer addition when he couldn't win the job at Kentucky and Ohio State needed a body at QB in 2019. Freshmen CJ Stroud and Jack Miller are talented early enrollees but both are fresh out of high school. If Fields is unavailable, the dropoff may be massive.

TIER II: ALL-CONFERENCE CONTENDERS

2. Minnesota

While Tanner Morgan is often overlooked because of Minnesota's talent at receiver, he plays his role in PJ Fleck's offense extremely well. Morgan led the Big Ten at 10.2 yards per attempt, threw 30 TDs against only seven picks, and completed two-thirds of his passes. Yes, it helps to have Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson, but you still have to put those playmakers in good spots position, and Morgan tosses accurate, catchable passes at all levels. He gets Bateman back, too.

The Gophers get the slight edge over the next team on the list because they have a backup with starting experience. Before Morgan emerged last season, Zack Annexstad was the returning starter coming off a passable year given he was thrown into the fire as a freshman. Annexstad got hurt and Morgan took full control of the job, but should the starter go down, Minnesota will be in a better position than most programs to keep their offense from imploding.

3. Indiana

Based on starter talent alone, Indiana has a strong argument for the #2 spot. Michael Penix Jr. isn't a big name outside of Indiana because he's been injured for much of the last two seasons. When healthy, though, he's been electric, and he chased a solid Big Ten starter (Peyton Ramsey) out of town. Penix averaged 8.7 yards per attempt and 5.4 yards per carry (not adjusted for sacks) in 2019 but only made it through three of his six starts before succumbing to a shoulder injury.

Penix has more upside than Morgan, particularly in the running game. He's yet to prove he can produce against the upper tier of the Big Ten, though, and his injury history is concerning for a player who relies so much on his legs. While the Hoosiers have former four-star recruit Jack Tuttle as a backup, he's another transfer who's had to start fresh following a short stint at Utah.

[Hit THE JUMP for a pretty strong group of signal-callers until you reach the ass end of the conference.]