nick moldenhauer

Only three weeks ago, Michigan Hockey's NCAA Tournament case was in trouble. Their College Hockey News-calculated probability of making the big dance was down to just over 1/3 and the prospect of the season being deemed an abject failure loomed. In the span of just those three weeks, some six hockey games, Michigan has gone from fading on the bubble to a near-certain tournament team. After this past weekend's sweep of Notre Dame in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan's probability is up to 99.6%.

Since the probability of Michigan missing the NCAAs is now akin to the probability that Donald Trump wins Massachusetts or Joe Biden wins Wyoming in November, we can speak in certain terms: Michigan is going to make the NCAA Hockey Tournament. This week we get to talk about how the Wolverines got there by delivering another clutch two victories with their backs against the wall. After that we'll take another look at the big picture and then pivot to a Minnesota preview. 

HockeyBullets on Notre Dame #2 

- Oh Notre Dame, how far have you fallen. One of my biggest takeaways from the weekend, and really the full season of seeing Notre Dame, is how much this program has declined in the late Jeff Jackson years. I don't think it's the offense necessarily, even with losing Rutger McGroarty and Logan Cooley type commits to other schools. Notre Dame didn't have those kinds of players during some of their glory years anyway. If you pull up their stat page from the 2017-18 team that was one win from taking home the national title, that team didn't have top notch scorers or guys who were elite NHL talents. Jake Evans has gone on to be a decent fourth liner in Montreal and that's it. 

What has changed is the manner in which Notre Dame defends and suppresses chances. The Irish at their best ground games down and suffocated opponents like no one's business, the sort of team where it was very hard to come back against. You can go back and find some of my early Hockey Weeklys from 2020 or 2021 where I was talking extensively about how important it was to score first on ND. Allowing the Irish to get a lead and set the tone and make you play on their terms was asking for disaster. 

But this weekend Michigan was able to rally from deficits in the second period in both games and it never was all that difficult. Notre Dame's leads in those two games lasted maybe 20 minutes combined, as the Wolverines were quickly able to get even and then take control back. In all six games Michigan has played against Notre Dame this season, I've never felt that same terror as I used to about falling behind the Irish or the need to score first. Ryan Bischel is a high level college goalie, but the team in front of him doesn't look like it used to. A couple of the goals Michigan scored were really quite startling. Look at this one: 

[Click the JUMP to see it]

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information and HERE for current Pairwise Rankings.

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information and HERE for current Pairwise Rankings.

What just happened (TL;DR): After building a dominating 4-1 lead (and a 30-9 shot lead), Michigan’s defense completely collapsed and their goaltending could not bail them out. The Spartans scored four goals in just under seven minutes to take a second period lead. Trey Augustine was the difference in the game. He played like a high draft pick, bailing out his own leaky defense time and time and time and time again. Michigan beat him a few times, poured it on, and Augustine just made enough high danger saves to get his team to the point where they started finishing their own golden chances.

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

Forward Notes.

-Once again, Michigan dominated statistically all throughout the game. They controlled play for the first thirty minutes, finishing their chances. On Saturday, however, the collapse ensued again. Friday night seems like a lifetime ago. Honestly, I’m not sure what to think, anymore. Is it mental? Michigan was just blowing them out of the water in all phases, once again, and then…just started managing the puck like a hot potato. Maybe they need to sacrifice a live chicken…

-With Gavin Brindley out with an injury, apparently, Garrett Schifsky stepped into the first line and completely looked the part. While he didn’t have Brindley’s finishing ability, he moved well enough and forechecked nicely, and gathered in two more assists. He had a great first half of his freshman year and has started backing that up with a great weekend against the in-state rival.

-After going to the Hero Line, the 25-13-9 second line really jumped on Saturday night. TJ Hughes tallied Michigan’s first two goals. He also assisted on the other two goals. Nick Moldenhauer only got one assist, but looked dangerous all night. He looks primed for a big second half. Dylan Duke was classic Double D. He just made smart plays in the zone, moved it well, and got to the greasy areas. He was credited with Michigan’s late Extra Attacker goal.

-Scoring five goals should be enough on almost every night in a non-bizarre hockey game. However, it seems Michigan only plays bizarre-bonkers hockey games…and the Defense and Goaltending sections are up next. Go get a drink, first.

Defense Notes.

-For the first period and a half, Michigan picked up right where they left off at Munn on Friday night. They kept their House and own zone in total very clean. After that…it got ROUGH. That seven minute stretch during the second period where MSU scored four times…Michigan’s defense turned the puck over in a dangerous spot on three of them. Then, they did again on the sixth goal in the third period. Same old bugaboo.

-Speaking of DZTOs…Jacob Truscott continue his forgettable weekend. He was the culprit on two of the second period goals. He also had a literal centering pass from behind his own net in the first period. Fortunately for him, the chance went wide. Honestly, I haven’t thought he’s had the best year, overall, but these two games have just been a weekend to burn the tape. He’s got to figure it out and fast.

-Tyler Duke…basically the same thing. He just had an absolute brownout, throwing the puck into the corner, like hitting the wrong button in a video game. Then, lost Nicolas Muller in the slot, who scored the third goal. In the third period, he just fell over, skating for a loose puck, giving State an advantage in the zone. After a Casey misplay, it was another A+ chance for Muller, and State had a two goal lead (6-4).

-Michigan dressed seven defensemen, but Luca Fantilli did not see the ice…to my knowledge. It’s clear the coaching staff prefers Steve Holtz. He got beat behind his net and cross-checked a guy that led to MSU’s early power play goal. I was sorta on the Luca Fantilli bandwagon for the sixth D spot. It hasn’t happened yet. Holtz did make some plays on loose pucks and did do some things well. He’s just always going to be at a bit of a disadvantage in a skate race.