mike smith super senior possibility

As expected, Michigan starting point guard Mike Smith won’t be returning next year, opting instead to get his pro career underway, he announced on Instagram.

 

 

 

 

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Smith grad transferred from Columbia last year and helped lead Michigan to a Big Ten title and a #1 seed, bringing the Wolverines within inches of the Final Four in his lone season in Ann Arbor. Along the way he went from being an undersized stopgap to the offense’s main initiator and defensive non-liability the smart basketball folks could argue was a clear statistical upgrade from Zavier Simpson.

[Hit THE JUMP.]

Mike Smith Starts Putting It Together

increasingly dangerous [Campredon]

As opposing defenses have placed a greater emphasis on stopping Hunter Dickinson, the court has opened up for other Wolverines to step forward. The primary beneficiary has been point guard Mike Smith, who's increasing his shot attempts from beyond the arc while slicing his previously problematic turnover numbers in half.

After removing the season-opening cupcakes, the statistical comparison between early-season Smith and the version we've seen since the Minnesota loss is stark. Everything has stayed level except for missing a couple more two-pointers (almost certainly a sample size issue), attempting an extra three-pointer per 100 possessions (given his numbers, great!), and trading off an assist or two per game to cut out an equal number of turnovers, which has been a very worthwhile swap. The result is an 11-point jump in O-Rating, per Bart Torvik:

The increased attention on Dickinson has helped Smith. The more important factor, though, is his improved comfort level against the size and speed of Big Ten defenses. A lot of his turnovers earlier in the year were passes that didn't make it through the crowd.

You can see the game slowing down for him. The little hesitation move on this pick-and-roll drive forces the defense to commit before Smith makes the pass, which allows him time to make the correct read to find the right angle to get the ball through clean:

Over the full season, Smith is posting strong numbers as a pick-and-roll ballhandler when you include his passes. He’s slightly above-average as a scorer but his passing puts him in the 85th percentile overall as a P&R ballhandler anyway. If he keeps the turnovers down, the efficiency of these plays will take a substantial leap, too:

Smith has done a nice job of spreading his passes between kickouts to shooters, dumpoffs to the roll man, and quick-hitters to the occasional cutter. Finding the big man on the roll is generally the most efficient way to end a ball screen for any team—save for hitting cutters, because when that happens the other team usually fell asleep, and that happens far less often—and Michigan is no exception with Hunter Dickinson usually on the receiving end of those plays.

Only two Big Ten players, D’Mitrik Trice and Marcus Carr, have hit the roll man more than the 44 times Smith’s posted this season and neither crack a point per possession on those plays while Smith’s in elite territory at 1.23:

Smith has increasingly gone to the bounce pass, which turns his height (or lack thereof) into an asset instead of a detriment as he threads the needle between taller defenders:

His skip passes are getting through more often, too.

[Hit THE JUMP for Smith's P&R scoring and lethal transition work, plus updates on the BTT, an injury to Ayo Dosonmu, and more.]