john teske

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Comment Count

38

Basketbullets: Roko's Basketball Basilisk
Brian • January 23, 2020 • 1:15pm

1/22/2020 – Michigan 63, Penn State 72 – 11-7, 2-5 Big Ten

I give up on not being repetitive. The games are repetitive. Make a shot! Shoot the ball into the basket! Jump, and then at or around the apex of your jump release the ball such that it arcs with some nice backspin and goes through the net! It is in these ways that basketball games are won! Theoretically!

Sometimes I wonder if I'm being way too fatalist about basketball. In my brain I give a team a certain number of points when a shot goes up, and keep a running total of grievance against the universe when the points in my head add up to something nice and the scoreboard is something nasty. The immediate aftermath of a shot I consider bad going down for the opponent is a scoff or an eyeroll. I hold grudges about Michigan players taking shots I consider bad even if they go down.

A basketball game is not a competition that is ceased at the moment a shot goes up and then given a score by a panel of judges. But in the cold light of dawn five games into the resumption of Big Ten play, I am here to say it damn well should be.

Look, here are other people who are making similar observations. They are somewhere between observant, resigned, and wondering if the universe is a simulation designed to torture them because they did not sufficiently aid the development of a superintelligent AI:

The basketball is making me feel deranged so I reach out into the void for people with similar opinions about how basketball becomes much easier if you put the ball into the hoop.

---------------------------------

Michigan has various other problems, of course. But those problems can be the same size and feel vastly less important if Michigan hits a damn shot. Since Livers went out Michigan is hitting 27% from three; opponents are hitting 40%. When Kenpom did a series on what is and is not in a basketball team's control in any particular game Michigan's most prominent current issue ended up almost dead last:

And that leads me to a different way of looking at the control issue. Below are the stats ranked by each side’s absolute control over them.

Offense  Defense
APL      Blk%
3PA%     PPP
PPP      3PA%
A%       Stl%
TO%      TO%
2P%      FTR
NST%     2P%
OR%      APL
Stl%     A%
FTR      NST%
FT%      OR%
Blk%     3P%
3P%      FT%

So while the defense only has 29% control of its opponent’s three-point attempt percentage, in terms of absolute control there are only two things it has more infleunce over – block percentage and points per possession. There is less random variance associated with three-point attempt percentage than any other stat I looked at except for points per possession. And the only thing the defense has less absolute control over than opposing three-point percentage is opposing free-throw percentage.

In the micro there are things Michigan is doing on certain possessions that mean they're more likely to lose basketball games. Eric Shapiro pointed some broken rotations out that led to open looks for PSU:

In the macro… I mean… come on.

[After the JUMP: corpse prodded]

Read More
TIMECOPS
Comment Count

70

Timecops 2775
Brian • December 5, 2018 • 1:47pm

12/4/2018 – Michigan 62, Northwestern 60 – 8-0, 2-0 Big Ten

Q: Really?

A: You should look at it as a compliment.

Q: I'm supposed to use the greatest invention in the history of humanity to go back seven hundred years in time to… I don't even know?

A: You guys have already repaired all of the really bad stuff. Nobody outside of this organization knows anything about World War II, Larry Culpepper, or Michigan Football from 2007-2037. This… this is what's left.

Q: And we have to spend our allocation or…?

A: Exactly. We get less next year.

Q: And this is what you want.

A: I mean… they made GIFs and everything. Look at it:

Q: This does not reflect well on the species.

A: It does not.

Q: I'm still unclear on the mission. Kill Hitler. Make Pitbull the permanent intergalactic president. Brain-swap Rich Rodriguez and Nick Saban. These are all defined goals. How am I supposed to prevent… that?

A: You could have a stern talk with him about the essential dignity of humanity and the importance of its preservation?

Q: …

A: I see you've been on a college basketball head coach mission before.

Q: Yes, President Pitbull. The Izzident is the darkest day in our organization's history.

A: "First, do no harm."

Q: Violated. The first and only time.

A: Look, just change the refereeing structure of college basketball to be fundamentally less sycophantic to little Hitlers. Any coach venturing onto the court during play gets a tech.

Q: Now that's the kind of timeline revision I can get behind.

A: Make it so. Dale.

[After THE JUMP: the post gets marginally less silly]

Read More