jj mcarthy

On the day that Michigan Football got the 1,000th win in program history, the team won a contest that has to rank near the top of the list of most unsettling wins of the thousand. Michigan got out to an early 23-3 lead but uncharacteristic performances from both the offense and defense allowed the Terps back into the game. Timely plays from the Michigan defense to stifle the Maryland offense late closed the game out and secured a 31-24 victory, but no one can leave this viewing experience terribly reassured. As usual, the game before The Game was choppy. 

Michigan got the football first and went three-and-out, foreshadowing some of the struggles on offense that would pop up later in the game. They ran the football twice but JJ McCarthy threw behind the line to gain on 3rd & 5, Cornelius Johnson going out a yard short and forcing Michigan to punt. Maryland's first possession was a dink-and-dunk endeavor that marched them down into Michigan territory, but fizzled out once inside the red zone. Pressure got home to QB Taulia Tagovailoa on 3rd down, forcing a scramble out of bounds. Mike Locksley put his FG unit on the field and Maryland took a 3-0 lead. 

Michigan's second turn with the football was a display of the rushing dominance that has defined the program over the past few years. But before that, Michigan got it going with a strike down the seam to Roman Wilson that saw the receiver hit in the head at the end of the play. Targeting was initially called but repealed upon review. Wilson exited the game and did not return (he was seen in street clothes on the sideline). Without their top receiver, Michigan kept it on the ground and paved Maryland right into Baltimore. Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum each got to feast but it was Corum who punched it in from two yards out. After the Wilson injury, Michigan ran it seven times for 42 yards to finish the drive and get their first TD. 7-3. 

[David Wilcomes]

Maryland's next two drives were calamities that ultimately cost them the game. On a 3rd & 10 on the first drive, Tagovailoa was pressured by two Michigan defenders, hit by Michael Barrett who popped the ball free, which Derrick Moore scooped up and ran into the end zone for a touchdown. 14-3 Michigan. Maryland got the ball right back, gave up a sack to Jaylen Harrell (who was unblocked off the edge), and punted. That punt was blocked by Michigan's Christian Boivin, the ball winding up in the end zone and kicked out the back of the end zone by the punter Brenden Segovia for a safety. Michgian's lead had thus increased from four points to thirteen points without the Wolverine offense running a play. 

Maryland kicked the ball to Michigan as a result of the safety and the Wolverines drove down for another TD on a drive that at the time seemed to put the game firmly out of reach (even though it was still the first half). Michigan continued paving the Terps straight into Maryland territory, but ran into trouble when JJ McCarthy incorrectly pulled on a zone read and set the team up in a 3rd & 10. Michigan pitched the ball to Edwards for only two yards and were faced with a 4th & 8 at the Maryland 26. They decided to go for it and got bailed out when Maryland corner Tarheeb Still held AJ Barner for an obvious flag. The drive kept going, Michigan converted a 3rd & long to Colston Loveland and once inside the 5 it was Corum who finished it off again. 23-3.

[After THE JUMP: Where it gets annoying]

11/4/2023 – Michigan 41, Purdue 13 – 9-0, 6-0 Big Ten

It is a measure of how spoiled Michigan fans are that when their quarterback completes two-thirds of his passes for 9.1 yards an attempt—with some drops in there—everyone is perturbed about What Happened To JJ McCarthy. In a larger sense, nothing at all, get a grip. In a smaller, paranoid sense: well, yeah. Purdue's defensive approach did pose some questions to a Michigan offense that was dead-set on not providing answers after going up 17-0 before the PSU-MD-OSU gauntlet to end the regular season.

The number one thing Purdue did was rush a bunch of DTs. The third guy in the middle rarely did anything directly, but he eliminated the possibility of those "look for work" blocks you see when an interior OL doesn't have anyone to block and decides to hog-wallop someone engaged with one of his buddies. Also because he was rarely getting any rush, Purdue did a much better job than anyone else on the schedule at keeping McCarthy in the pocket.

The results alternated between downs where Michigan got the man-to-man they expected and McCarthy could just throw it to Roman Wilson for 20 yards and ones where Purdue popped into a zone. On those snaps McCarthy hesitated, and then his Let's Break The Pocket And Fire All The Missiles timer went off. He'd move to do that, find that the doors were closed, and then fire inaccurate balls because his feet weren't in the right place. He was caught between states.

This is to say that a big chunk of the problems that caused JJ McCarthy to only complete two-thirds of his passes for 9.1 yards an attempt are fixable, and will probably be fixed.

-------------------------------

The rest of the game went like they all have so far: the defense gives up approximately nothing. There are a couple mistakes that set the opponent up for their desultory first-half score, and then the opponent gets to have a touchdown after the stadium has emptied out. The only unusual things were a couple of fourth-quarter drives for the starting offense, possibly because they haven't played a full four quarters all year and Michigan wanted them to get that under their belt before Penn State, and the relative wobbliness of McCarthy.

Afterwards, Ryan Walters was mad. Was he mad that Connor Stalions had somehow robbed him of victory? Was he mad that Illinois didn't win last year? I don't know. Everyone seems absolutely furious about Stalions going overboard on an activity that is everyday, commonplace, and Walters personally participated in.

Everyone is just as mad as they can be, except Michigan fans. That last outpost of sanity is set to fall in a couple days if and when the Big Ten levies an unprecedented suspension to the head coach of a team that would have won every game they've played this year by multiple scores if Connor Stalions happened to be a massive Colorado School of Mines fan instead of Michigan. At this point, Michigan will join the frothing masses. The already frothed will be furious that Michigan's players are still allowed to compete for a championship. They will fulminate about how desperately unfair it all is, and Michigan fans will fulminate about the same thing.

All of this because of the idea that Michigan has somehow ruined the sport because one guy got a marginal advantage in a part of the sport that can easily be defeated by writing things down on a piece of paper and sticking it on your wrist. This is going to go down as the stupidest moral panic in the history of the sport.

We are headed for the biggest Die Mad of all time. Nothing can stop it. The only question is who will in fact be Dying Mad. The stakes have never been higher, or dumber.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1T Michael Barrett, Braiden McGregor, Jaylen Harrell, Derrick Moore, and Josiah Stewart. Michigan's rotate ALL THE GUYs approach on defense has made it difficult for anyone on the defense to dislodge offensive players, particularly JJ McCarthy from the top spot. And, yeah, the highest number of pass rush snaps any individual defender got in this game: 17. But Michigan collected 20 pressures on 30 dropbacks, so I'm sticking all these guys in at the top. Three points each. McGregor and Harrell get bonus points for combining on a third and short stop.

#2 Roman Wilson. Nine catches on ten targets, and while the tenth was a low but catchable ball the important thing was that no Purdue defensive back was able to even make it a contest. Zero of his targets were contested.

#3 Will Johnson. Interception, a couple more PBUs, ceded three yards a target per PFF. More discussion below.

Honorable mention: Well okay yes JJ McCarthy completed two-thirds of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt. Colston Loveland had a beautiful back-shoulder catch and nearly brought in a circus catch; Semaj Morgan is fast. Rod Moore had an endzone PBU and a second PBU that was less salutary.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

44: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR)
23: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU)
15: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR)
13: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU)
11: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR)
10: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU), AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU), Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR)
9: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR)
7: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV), Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR), 3: Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn), The Offensive Line (HM Minn), Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rod Moore (HM PUR)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Donovan Edwards gets one on one with a linebacker, signaling that Ryan Walters's stuff isn't going to work in this one.

Honorable mention: The ease with which Michigan converted their goal to go opportunities. Semaj Morgan puts the game to bed with the world's most wide open jet sweep. McCarthy nails a back shoulder to Loveland. Will Johnson gets a pick somewhat reminiscent of his first against Purdue last year.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Purdue stuffs a fourth and one near the end of the first half. This was not the first gaffe in the period of gaffes but it was the one that established it was going to be an annoying quarter and a half.

Honorable mention: Punt hits a gunner, leading to a turnover and a Purdue field goal. DJ Waller gives up a long reception. Purdue scores with 30 seconds left, robbing Michigan of the cover and giving a thousand screeching Ohio State fans on twitter the ability to say THEY DIDN'T COVER.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Ryan Walters gives Jim Harbaugh the drive-by handshake because he's just so mad that Michigan may or may not have had their signals. Expect news to break this week about Walters; there's a reason Michigan was using wristbands in this game.

Dishonorable mention: N/A

Previously: The Story. 

QUARTERBACK: BEAT GEORGIA

GRADE: 5

QUARTERBACK	Yr
JJ McCarthy	Jr.
Davis Warren	So.*
Alex Orji	Fr.*

Two years ago, Michigan won the Big Ten. Hooray! They returned their starting quarterback. Also hooray! But there was this guy, you know, who'd done this as a freshman:

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
2021	9++++	18+(7)	3		1	7		1x	5x	11	6x		58%	+10		10/12	28/33

As always, hover over abbreviations for explanations.

Nine dead on throws in the rough equivalent of two games, just one Bad Read Xtreme, a +10 grade, excellent decisions at mesh points. Our charting for JJ McCarthy was not over the moon, but this was a true freshman getting spot duty. He wandered into games and out of them, never developing a rhythm but generally executing better than you'd expect. He flashed a crazy arm, and crazy legs. The people wanted him to win the job. The people did not expect him to win the job, because that never happens. Returning, championship QBs do not get deposed.

Then spring chatter turned into fall chatter and Jim Harbaugh announced that he'd be starting Cade McNamara in the opener and McCarthy in game two. Whether this was a genuine response to a tight competition or a way to ease a Big Ten champion starter out of his job will never be known, but McNamara bottled it and McCarthy turned in a 100% downfield success rating; Harbaugh announced the job was McCarthy's and never looked back.

The payoff was another Big Ten title, albeit one that once again leaned heavily on the ground game. Depending on your point of view, Michigan was either 127th or 5th in "run rate over expected," a metric that measures exactly what it sounds like. They finished 3rd nationally in yards per carry. If you squint you could argue that replacing McNamara was beside the point. And maybe it was, if Michigan's goal was to beat Ohio State and win the conference. It is not. Michigan's added a "Beat Georgia" drill to practice, and McCarthy is the guy who looked like he might be able to hang with the Bulldogs when Michigan got blasted in their CFP appearance two years ago.

Flipping to JJ is for this year, when his ceiling blows McNamara's out of the water. He's got to take a step forward. This is about how much of a step:

…the former top-25 recruit made the gamble pay off, winning his first 12 starts and finishing 16th in Total QBR.

Sixteenth is good, but is it national-title good? Over the past four seasons, the title-winning quarterback has averaged a 91.4 Total QBR, completing 72% of his passes at 14.2 yards per completion. McCarthy in 2022: 79.1 Total QBR, 65% completion rate, 13.1 yards per completion. He came up big in the last three games of the season (57% completion rate, but at 17.8 yards per completion). Was that a sign of things to come?

Well, Dude, we just don't know.

[After THE JUMP: salami]