jimmy snuggerud

At long last, Michigan Hockey won a regular season game at Yost against Notre Dame. And then the next night, they won a second. The first home sweep of Notre Dame at Yost since the 2017-18 season, the first win of any kind in the regular season at home against Notre Dame since November 9, 2018(!!). Two huge regulation wins that have bumped Michigan Hockey's probability of making the NCAA Tournament from 34% to 65% and put them temporarily back on the right side of the bubble. A long way to go with one more week of the regular season + the conference tournament pending, but this was a step in the right direction. Let's break it all down today: 

A Few Thoughts From The Weekend  

A banner night for Dylan Duke. Friday night was the Dylan Duke show, as the junior scored the first goal for Michigan, a rather soft one for Ryan Bischel right off a faceoff, and then got the second later in the opening period on a masterful short-handed goal: 

Dylan Duke short-handed! pic.twitter.com/Kt74vxKGho

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 24, 2024

Those were Duke's only goals of the game– and only points of the weekend for that matter– but they were still two huge ones because they set the tone. This was a massive series for Michigan, four games left in the regular season or as I put it last week, running out of time. The Maize & Blue needed a big weekend against a team and in a building they can never, ever win in. They needed two regulation wins and while Notre Dame has fallen quite a bit from the grinding defensive team that used to choke the life out of games, they are still a team with an elite goaltender that generally has good in-zone defensive fundamentals. You want to get leads on the Irish, if for no other reason than their offensive limitations make it harder for them in particular to rally. 

Dylan Duke gave Michigan that lead and he got a decent sized one for them right away. When he put that second goal in there was still tons of hockey to be played, but again, it set the tone. Michigan was in command of that Friday game very early because of Duke and they were able to play confidently from there on out. Michigan doesn't have an underclass superstar to lean on like an Adam Fantilli last season. They need veteran players to step up when your season is on the line and Duke's first period could end up being a turning point of the season if Michigan finds a way into the tournament and we ought to commend him for that. The first goal wasn't anything special, lucky break but it was what I also wrote about last week in terms of a simplified offensive approach, putting pucks on net. Sometimes you get rewarded and sometimes, like in this case, it really matters. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More thoughts, NCAA picture, and Minnesota]

Previously: Defensemen, Incoming forwards/goaltending, returning forwards, season preview HockeyCast

Over the past week and a half I've been slowly rolling out my Michigan Hockey Season preview. Over the first three installments we were breaking down the roster, and today we come to the final piece of the puzzle. In this article we will instead be focusing on the rest of the conference, as well as Michigan's schedule more broadly. Then, at the end, we will make a few predictions, and wrap up the preview. Let's start by analyzing the B1G, which I have broken down into tiers. Well, two tiers really. It's a pretty open conference this year:

Tier I: Tenuous favorites - Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State

Michigan

Not going to go in depth because that's what the other preview articles were supposed to do. 

Minnesota 

Last season: 1st in B1G, 29-10-1 (17-3-4), lost in National Title Game  

Key Additions: Oliver Moore, Sam Rinzel, Jimmy Clark, Max Rud, Nick Michel 

Key Losses: Logan Cooley, Matthew Knies, Jackson LaCombe, Brock Faber, Ryan Johnson

The Gophers are a case study in the volume of roster losses vs. the production of losses. Minnesota didn't lose that many players, towards the bottom of teams in the conference in sheer number of players that left the squad. However, the players they lost were massive impact pieces and you would not be wrong in arguing that Minnesota lost five of their six best players in the offseason. Which matters more, and who can fill those big shoes, will determine the trajectory of Minnesota's season. 

I generally lean more towards the side of the spectrum that argues that it's who you lost more than how many players you lost. Minnesota's losses are enormous, starting up at forward. Last season their team was built around the fact that they had arguably the best line in college hockey, Logan Cooley centering Matthew Knies and Jimmy Snuggerud. Those three players combined to score ~38% of the team's goals and ~33% of the team's points. This season they lose Cooley, who changed his mind about playing in an NHL/College Hockey arena in Arizona and signed with the Coyotes (already scored a sick goal!), and Matthew Knies, who signed with the Maple Leafs in the spring. Those two players both were finalists for the Hobey Baker, with Cooley for me being the only player in college hockey who had a case for the award besides Adam Fantilli. He was ridiculously good and Knies was so essential in making that line work via his puck recovery skills, dominance around the net, and defensive detail. 

[Bill Rapai]

Losing players of that caliber is not easy, even if Jimmy Snuggerud returns. I like Snuggerud quite a bit, but I felt that he was the third piece of that line. If he can replicate his 21 goals and 50 points with new linemates, more power to him and I will be impressed. But I need to see it. In terms of recruits, Minnesota slides in Oliver Moore, 1st round pick of Chicago, at center. I like Moore, don't get me wrong, but he's not quite the same caliber of prospect as Logan Cooley. 7th round pick Jimmy Clark should help the depth scoring but what Minnesota needs is for the rest of the roster to step up and replace the firepower they lost. Better seasons from the likes of Connor Kurth and Brody Lamb, in addition to Bryce Brodzinski pouring in 19 goals again, would definitely help. 

The other element that made Minnesota so great last season was their four horsemen on defense, upperclassmen defensemen who gobbled tough minutes and controlled the game, tilting the ice towards Minnesota on every shift. Three of those four are now gone, with only Mike Koster returning. Sam Rinzel, 1st round pick, will help, but he cannot replace the seniority and the experience of those departed defenders. This is still a very talented blue line, Rinzel, Ryan Chesley, Luke Mittelstadt, but those three players are all underclassmen. There will be a drop-off in the manner in which the Gophers can dominate the games and protect Justen Close, a goalie who has thrived in the system but has had his wobbles against higher quality shots (and shooters). 

I do expect this Minnesota team to be good, which is why I have them in the top group. They still have a ton of talent, they still have Bob Motzko as their coach, and enough players return to guarantee some level of continuity. But I don't anticipate this to be anywhere near as dominant of a team, too much talent leaving the roster and crucially, too much experience. While Minnesota has been such a consistent team night-in and night-out over the last two seasons, I foresee a bit more of a spottier team, one with the choppiness that Michigan typically has that comes with a more freshman/sophomore heavy roster. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the other five teams + predictions]

ESSENTIALS

PROGRAMMING NOTE: As hinted at on the HockeyCast this week, we will be doing a WATCH-ALONG on Saturday night for the game being previewed in this article. It will be me, David, and Brian watching the Michigan-Minnesota clash on the MGoBlog Live YouTube channel. If you want to follow along, feel free to join us! We are planning to go live at 8:00 PM EST when the game gets underway and will post the link to the site and tweet it out beforehand. 

OVERVIEW

Let's do it again: for the second straight year, Michigan meets Minnesota in Minneapolis to decide the Big Ten Hockey Tournament championship. Last season the Wolverines were the better team but did not have home ice due to a late lull in B1G play. They went into the Twin Cities and asserted themselves as the better team, scoring four goals in the first half of the game to take a commanding lead into the final minute, allowing a pair of late goals with the net empty but never seriously threatening to blow the lead. This season it's a bit different, even if the final destination is the same. Minnesota's been the better, more experienced team all year long, but Saturday night is one game for glory. The trajectory of the season need not matter. 

THE US

Michigan manhandled arch-nemesis Ohio State last Saturday in the semifinals of this tournament, building a 3-0 lead within the first eleven minutes and then going in cruise control the rest of the way. Adam Fantilli added two more goals, showcasing himself as the best player in NCAA Hockey, and it was a banner day for Michigan's defense, both in preventing chances at 5v5 but also in driving offense forward. Seamus Casey scored a goal, Keaton Pehrson created another with a great pass for a tap-in, and Luke Hughes was effective at creating offense in transition all game long. The only rough spot in that game was a leaky PK that let the Buckeyes go 2/3 with the man advantage (and allowed a 6v5 goal late). 

For Michigan, the stakes are pretty obvious. Not just do you get a championship ring and a B1G Tournament banner to hoist in Yost, but the Wolverines will also lock up a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a win (likely the 4th one seed, which would set Michigan up for a trip to Manchester, NH). 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

THE THEM 

If you remember the feeling we felt when Owen Power, Kent Johnson, Thomas Bordeleau, and Matty Beniers all decided to come back for the 2021-22 season... that's the feeling that Gophers fans have had all year long. After making the Frozen Four but coming up short against Minnesota State last season, nearly the whole team agreed to run it back rather than sign professional contracts, and they've been joined by a crop of uber-talented freshmen. This loaded Minnesota roster is no question the best in college hockey, a talent level only topped by Michigan but blending experience and veteran poise that Brandon Naurato's inaugural team lacks. 

With that roster, Minnesota has been dominant wire to wire. They've been a little more vulnerable in the non-conference, splitting with Minnesota State, North Dakota, Arizona State, and St. Cloud, but have steamrolled their way through the best B1G in conference history. In conference play, Minnesota went 17-3 in regulation and 19-4-1 overall. They won the conference regular season title by a mile, finishing 19 points up on second place Michigan. After losing in regulation to Penn State on November 10, they would not lose in regulation again until a shocking defeat in Madison at the hands of the Badgers on February 11. Even late in the season, with nothing to play for in the B1G, they swept Penn State and Ohio State, two top ten teams. Given the #1 seed in the BTT and a bye into round two, they easily dispatched Michigan State last weekend in the semifinals 5-1. 

Minnesota's team revolves around their deep and experienced defense corps. Their top four defensemen in scoring are all juniors or seniors, including 2019 first round pick Ryan Johnson (BUF) and 2019 second round pick Jackson LaCombe (ANA), as well as 2020 second round pick Brock Faber (LAK). When you toss in 2019 fifth rounder Mike Koster (TOR), you have a top four that has played a lot of college hockey and who have legitimate NHL ambition, a rarity in the NCAA. Those four are the players who the team will lean on in crunch time, but freshman Ryan Chesley (WSH) was a top 40 draft pick in the most recent draft himself. Not too shabby!

[AFTER THE JUMP: More preview]