jay hopson

This qualifies as big enough news.

    

The twitters are reporting that linebackers coach Jay Hopson is expected to get the defensive coordinator job at Memphis. Dienhart:

Michigan LB coach Jay Hopson has been tabbed to be Memphis defensive coordinator.

Bruce Feldman is also reporting it.

Instant reaction: good luck with that, Memphis. This site's patience with Hopson ran out two plays into the Notre Dame game this year when Obi Ezeh failed to diagnose a screen and Armando Allen ran for 20 yards. That was Notre Dame's longest run of the year by 20 yards. (ZING!)

After that game I laid out a bunch of facts that pointed to a post-season exit:

Mouton and Ezeh belong to Jay Hopson, and the inside backers are the only guys who belong to Jay Hopson, and they're playing terribly. As far as recruiting goes, Hopson got shut out of Mississippi last year and was the guy responsible for recruiting both defensive tackles who bolted on Signing Day. …I don't recall any recruit mentioning Hopson this year. This blog's even got a tag about Mississippi because of it, and Michigan has shifted its focus away from all the places Hopson has connections. The number of kids they're recruiting in Mississippi is zero, and I can't recall anyone they're seriously involved with who's in the deep south.

Unless the two inside guys get radically better over the rest of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if Hopson was replaced.

After the Wisconsin debacle:

Wisconsin's passing game was almost exclusively zingers over the middle to incredibly open receivers 20 or even 30 yards downfield. On every damn one both MLBs were vastly out of position and the throws were easy. The pair was also very poor in run support: Graham and Martin combined for 21 tackles. They [Ezeh and Mouton] combined for eight!

These are returning starters and redshirt juniors. They have gotten so much worse this year, and it's obvious to everyone from Bret Bielema to stupid bloggers with charts. There is not quite enough data to outright support the ouster of a coach but I find it hard to believe that Jay Hopson could be any good. Maybe he just got stuck with mugs, but Jesus these guys can't even scrape to the right hole when Wisconsin is literally running the same play to different sides of the line four times in a row. Is this a defensive scheme change? I don't think so. Run to the damn hole.

Now that he's actually gone, it's no sugarcoat time: Hopson failed at all aspects of his job at Michigan. At least Tony Gibson can point to the walk-ons and whatnot when attempting to explain what went wrong with his section of the defense; Hopson had two redshirt juniors with three years of starting experience between them. They went backwards, and the big-time recruit backing them up also proved unready.

Meanwhile, a—possibly the—primary reason Michigan lacks depth on the defensive line and might have to turn down a couple of recruits who want to come was Hopson getting "commitments" from two defensive tackles who eventually went to Arkansas and Texas Tech on signing day. Arkansas and Texas Tech! It's not like Florida or Oklahoma or LSU swooped in on these guys.

When Michigan pulled out of any area Hopson had recruiting connections in and the linebackers imploded, this was a matter of time. Hopefully Michigan takes the opportunity to pick up a coach with serious experience or established recruiting chops. Michigan fans will immediately turn their eyes to Corwin Brown, who killed Michigan as Notre Dame's DB coach/DC, but he's an awkward fit because neither he nor Tony Gibson has ever coached linebackers. If Michigan hands the linebackers to Greg Robinson they might be able to use Gibson and Brown as ninja recruiters who split the secondary. I have no idea if that's possible; Robinson's last job as a position coach was a stretch as a DL coach for the Jets from 1990 to 1993. Since then it's been coordinator or head coach.

This makes Rodriguez 0/2 on his new hires since coming to Michigan, with Greg Robinson currently sporting an incomplete. If Rodriguez doesn't make it at Michigan the guys he picked to run his defense will be a primary factor.

Personnel notes: Smith replaced Williams for the whole game, and the linebackers were always Ezeh and Mouton. On (rare) obvious passing downs Floyd came in for Smith. I think there may have been a few plays where Floyd subbed in for Woolfolk, too.

Formation notes: Michigan spent the whole game in an eight-man front; late they moved up Kovacs for nine.

Video note: there was no HD torrent this week so the quality is poor.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	Dig	Ezeh	27 + 15 pen
The first of a thousand of these. Wisconsin goes play action and sucks the linebackers up a little but the problem is that Ezeh(-1) and Mouton(-1) don't get deep enough drops (cover -2) and leave a wide receiver wide open on a two-man route. There is no one threatening either of those guys underneath as Wisconsin goes max protect. Graham had worked underneath and nailed Tolzien just as he throws and picks up a terrible roughing the passer call. Egregiously bad call.
M38	1	10	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	Scramble	Brown	12
Aaand Graham(+1) owns the tackle and is blatantly held, which allows Tolzien to escape the pocket; Brown(-1) hesitates in case Tolzien decides to throw and gives up the corner, allowing a nice scramble.
M26	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Inside zone	Martin	2
Martin(+1) takes on a double team and gives a little ground but not that much; Mouton(-1) is attacking the line of scrimmage and picks the wrong hole, which gives Clay an open cutback that he attempts to take; he trips over one of the offensive linemen trying to block Martin. Kovacs was filling strongly.
M24	2	8	I-Form Twins	4-4 under	Run	Inside zone	Graham	1
Graham(+1) gets off the ball quickly and gets inside of his blocker, convincing Clay to attempt to cut it behind that mess; Martin(+1) is looping around after taking on a double team and the two of them meet Clay to nail him at the LOS. Pretty sure this was a stunt that worked. (RPS +1)
M23	3	7	Ace bunch	Base 3-4	Pass	Dig	Ezeh	23
Three man rush gets no pressure(-1), partially because Graham is again blatantly held as he attempts to go around the corner. The Wisconsin OL has his hand outside Graham's shoulder pads and is hanging on for dear life; no call. This allows Tolzien to find his TE between Ezeh(-1) and Mouton(-1) wide open (cover -2); Mouton overruns the play, opening it up; Kovacs(-1) then misses a tackle(-1) to give him the last ten.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 11 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	I-Form	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Martin	-3
Martin(+3) blows past the down-block attempt from the playside guard and is into the backfield like a shot, destroying the play. Clay tries to cut back and is swallowed by Martin(tackling +1). Major TFL by one player = +3.
O17	2	13	I-Form	4-4 under	Pass	Out	Smith	Inc
Michigan tipping cover three and Wisconsin goes after the edge, which Smith cannot cover in time (cover -1). Throw is marginal but catchable; it is dropped, costing Wisconsin ten or so yards.
O17	3	13	Shotgun 2-back bunch	4-3 under	Pass	Sack	Graham	Inc (Pen -15)
Smith out, Floyd in. Wisconsin going with a screen that Michigan has killed because the DTs stunt and by the time Martin(+1) cuts through the trash it's obvious and he gets out on it, causing Tolzien to hesitate and Graham(+1) to hunt him down. Tolzien ends up turfing a ball five yards from the receiver and gets called for grounding.  RPS +1
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 5 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O8	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Mouton	3
Mouton(+0.5) is a little late but does scrape to the hole past a center coming through the middle and meets Clay there, tackling(+1) with help from Kovacs. Ezeh got outside the pulling guard and forced it back.
O11	2	7	Ace Twins Twin TE	4-4 under split	Pass	Sack	Martin	-1
I mean, really, what is it going to take for an official to throw a flag on the Wisconsin offensive line? Martin(+3) zips around the center and is instantly into the backfield on this play action; center then grabs his shoulder from behind and starts slowing him down; no flag. Tolzien tries to evade Martin and manages to do so at first but Martin is agile enough to change direction and drag him down from behind. (Pressure +2)
O10	3	8	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Pass	Interception	Mouton	Int
Good time (pressure -1) on a four man rush before Martin(+0.5) does work his way through a double and to the quarterback. Tolzien fires to a guy open between Ezeh and Brown, but before the ball can get there Mouton(+1) deflects it and Kovacs(+2) digs out a tough, low interception of the deflected ball. (Cover +1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-7, EO1Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Ace Twins Twin TE	4-4 under	Pass	Waggle hitch	Roh	9
Absolutely no one on the corner (pressure -2) and Tolzien has epic time to wander towards the sideline in case someone gets open. Eventually, someone does. Roh(-1) got himself way far inside in anticipation of the stretch.
O34	2	1	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Iso	Heininger	9
Martin(+1) gets playside of his blocker and cuts off the intended hole but Heininger(-1) has gotten upfield and gets crushed/sealed out of the play, opening up a cutback lane. Mouton(-1) overpursued to the front of the play, which might be understandable, but then he misses a tackle(-1) and cedes another five or six yards.
O43	1	10	I-Form Big	Base 3-4	Run	Power O	Ezeh	11
Wow. Watch Ezeh(-2) on this play. He watches and watches and waits and then he's got a center on him blocking him and he's about five yards downfield without having moved as this play develops and as a result there's no one at all to help after Brown forces the play upfield; Roh(-1) also looked pretty goofy as he goes to cut the FB at the wrong spot on this play, which allows a pulling guard to come around; he neither delays the RB nor takes out two-for-one.
M46	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Smith	8
Hey, same exact play, virtually identical result. Here Graham(-1) cuts inside and gets absorbed by single blocking; he's cutting out of the area in which he can help. Smith(-1) gives up the corner and no one can flow to the ball carrier.
M38	2	2	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Iso	Graham	3
Graham(+1) zips around the tackle trying to block him and is in great position to potentially make a TFL if Martin(-1) can just hold up better against single blocking; he doesn't, getting banged inside and giving the RB a crease. Graham makes a diving tackle with help from Kovacs and Mouton, but not before the first down line.
M35	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Pass	Out	Smith	Inc
Smith(+1) is blitzing from the edge and is in lighting quick, too quick for the RB to slide over to get much of a block. RB does get a cut; Smith ends up falling into Tolzien's knees as he throws. Resulting pass is inaccurate. (Pressure +1) Good thing, because out was wide open in front of Kovacs (cover -1)
M35	2	10	I-Form	4-4 under	Run	End around	Brown	5 (Pen -9)
Brown(+1) is flowing down the line to string this out when the TE grabs him, holds him up, and then cuts him to the ground. Gilreath gets a crease for a few yards; comes back for the hold.
M44	2	19	Ace 4-wide	4-4 under	Pass	Corner	Mouton	Inc
Mouton(+1) gets a good zone drop as Wisconsin is running a couple of routes to the short side of the field, one a short out and the other a corner. Mouton does take a step to the out, which is not his responsibility, before recovering deep and getting enough depth to deflect the ball; TE catches it on the deflection but out of bounds. (Cover +1) Pocket was too clean: pressure -1.
M44	3	19	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	Screen	Graham	-1
Graham(+1) is shooting inside his blocker and reads this screen, possibly because Tolzien is dropping too deep for it to be a real pass, so he peels off to tackle with help from Roh(+1), who also stopped in his tracks and recovered. (RPS +1, cover +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-7, 11 min 2nd Q. Roughing the kicker on Smith(-2) gives Wisconsin another opportunity. More about this later.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M30	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Heininger	4
RVB(-1) blown off the ball by a double; not a real surprise with that guy going up against the Wisconsin line. Heininger(+2), however, fights inside of his guy on the backside and gets inside quickly enough to make a diving tackle on Clay as he nears the LOS. Ankle tackle = YAC, but still a remarkable play; good thing, too, because Ezeh(-1) again sat around aimlessly near the hole and got blocked right out of it; Mouton(-1) had picked the backside of the line and without this play from Heininger Clay is probably scoring a touchdown.
M26	2	6	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Smith	7
Wheee they do the same thing to one side or the other over and over. On this one Smith(-1) shoots upfield instead of getting into the pulling guards and spilling the play, leaving Ezeh and Mouton one-on-one with two pullers; Mouton has to get outside of one and does; Ezeh(-1) is crushed by the other one and can only make a desperation tackle eight yards downfield.
M19	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	End Power O	Smith	13
Em. Well, it's the same play except this time they hand it to the pulling TE instead of Clay. Smith(-2) again gives up the corner, getting crushed backwards and giving Kendricks acres of space to head out in; Clay had fallen and if this play got forced back inside it probably wasn't getting much. Smith is every bit as bad as Williams.
M6	1	G	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Graham	-1
Graham(+2) ducks under the offensive lineman trying to down-block him and ends up in the backfield, where the pulling TE attempts to block him; too late, he's in the path of the play, and Clay goes down meekly.
M7	2	G	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	Rollout corner	Woolfolk?	7
Ezeh heading out for some contain if Michigan can get this covered, though he runs himself right into a cut block and falls. Doesn't really matter because Woolfolk(-1) got sucked out his zone by the outside receiver and opens up the corner. (Cover -1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-14, 8 min 2nd Q. Smith is not a panacea.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Pass	PA TE Corner	Brown	Inc
Roh(+0.5) gets outside and avoids a cut to provide decent pressure on Tolzien, forcing a throw; Tolzien tries to hit his TE on the corner route that's killed M all year but on this one Brown(+2, cover +2) is running the TE's route for him and if this pass is accurate can intercept. It's not.
O25	2	10	Ace Twins	Base 3-4	Pass	Hitch	Mouton	Inc
Mouton(+1) blitzes through and does a good job avoiding the RB's block, forcing a throw (pressure +1) to a guy who looks like he's plenty covered(+1) downfield. Doesn't matter since Campbell(+1) bats the ball away.
O25	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Sack	Graham	-25!
Both LBs blitz, leaving Graham(+3) one-on-one with the backup RT, and Graham duly destroys the guy and then destroys Tolzien, sacking him and forcing a fumble that RVB(+1) sees, scoops up, and runs into the endzone. Replay.
Drive Notes: Fumble + defensive touchdown, 17-14, 3 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O26	1	10	Ace 3-wide tight	4-4 under	Pass	Counter pitch	Brown	6
Brown(-1) bites on the counter action, stepping inside. Roh(-1) gets blasted down the line and tries a futile spin move past the UW TE as three OL pull around. This wastes a good play from Banks(+1) who gets out, avoids a cut block, and is flowing down the line to tackle if only someone can force the play back to him. Not possible.
O32	2	4	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	Hitch	--	6
No pressure(-1), allowing Tolzien to step and fire to a TE underneath the zone.
O38	1	10	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	PA Dig	Various	35
Incredibly open dig #3. Ezeh(-1), Mouton(-1), and Kovacs(-1) are the nearest players(cover -2); no one anywhere near Tolzien(pressure -2). I mostly blame Ezeh: he's just sitting there with no one in front of him. He should be drifting back the whole time and in position to do something about this.
M27	1	10	I-Form	4-4 under	Pass	PA TE Seam	Ezeh	24
Incredibly open dig/seam #4. Partially on Roh(-1), who doesn't get an effective chuck on the TE; partially again on Ezeh(-1), who has no one in front of him and still doesn't get a good zone drop (cover -2). No pressure(-1) again.
M3	1	G	Goal line	Goal line	Run	Power O	?	2
Wide angle on this makes it really hard to tell what happens; I'm using an SD torrent this week... so I can't really tell you much other than it looks fairly well defended and Clay pops outside where he's met by a couple tacklers and John Clays his way for two yards.
M1	2	G	Goal line	Goal line	Run	Power O	--	1
Clay leaps over the top and is thumped back by Graham, but apparently not before he got the ball over the line. It's reviewed and stands; I think this is one of those plays that's so inconclusive that the call on the field will stand whichever way it's called.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-21, 1 min 2nd Q. RR should have called time out after the first and goal play.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	End around	Graham	3
Fake the power O and use the TE coming around on the end-around. Graham(+1) tears through the line and into the backfield; he can't make a tackle but does delay the TE. Smith(+0.5) gets deeper into the backfield this time and manages to occupy two blockers but does let a crease develop between himself and Mouton, which the TE hits; delay allows Ezeh and others to close it down. Runner fumbles; Wisconsin recovers but loses a couple yards. Kovacs(+1) forced it.
O23	2	7	Ace Twins	4-4 under	Run	Down G	Smith	21
Man, Smith(-2) just sits at the LOS with no idea what to do here instead of coming up to the line and forcing the play inside. He gets nailed by a G and driven literally ten yards downfield, which allows the RB the corner; Warren(-1) comes up to whiff a tackle(-1) that was made hard by the Smith crushage.
O44	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Martin	-2
Smith does attack on this one as Wisconsin goes back to the power O scheme. I think they spent halftime coaching him up on this but he failed to recognize the down G scheme. Not much a hole as a result but it doesn't matter because Martin(+2) ripped through the line and tackles(+1) in the backfield, crushing the play by himself. I think Michigan was misaligned here because there are two guys on the backside who end up unblocked; this could have broken for a lot without Martin's play.
O42	2	12	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	Out	--	Inc
Tolzien has time for a quick throw and finds a receiver moderately open in front of Woolfolk but the pass is poor and not caught.
O42	3	12	Ace 4-wide bunch	4-3 under	Pass	Post	Mouton?	21
Graham(+1) tears around the corner and hits Tolzien in the back with one arm as he throws; a half-second more in coverage and this is a sack. But... no. This has got to be a huge zone bust by someone... it's third and freaking twelve and three players to that side of the field are short; I get Roh and RVB since it's a zone blitz but Mouton is covering no one. (Cover -2) ARGH. Is this Warren? How the hell do you cover this?
M37	1	10	Ace	4-4 under	Run	Down G	Smith	2 (Pen -10)
Smith(+1) does get upfield on this one, taking a blocker and forcing the play inside. Ezeh and Warren are there; two guys on one blocker, and they get a stop. Smith draws a holding call. Not that it will matter.
M47	1	20	I-Form	4-4 under	Pass	Dig	Brown?	18
Incredibly open dig #4. I don't know what the coverage is here, but it looks like man, which would make Brown(-1, cover -2) the culprit. Or maybe it's zone? I have no damn idea. If it's zone it's Ezeh again getting ridiculously dragged out of position and opening this up. All these can't be on Ezeh, right? They'd pull him, right?
M29	2	2	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	Waggle comeback	Woolfolk?	14
Waggle gets Tolzien forever(pressure -2) and allows him time to set and fire to a receiver on a comeback (cover -1) in front of Woolfolk.
M15	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Mouton	0
Linebackers read the play direction and are all flowing into the hole; Ezeh's headed outside in case it spills. Line creases because RVB is slanting away from the hole and he gets down-blocked; Mouton(+2) makes a really nice play to dodge the pulling guard and tackle(+1) at the RB's knees.
M15	2	10	Ace Twins	4-4 under	Pass	Waggle throwaway	Roh	Inc
Michigan better prepared for this as Roh(+0.5) does not get sealed inside by the tackle and eventually shakes free, drawing Tolzien's lead blocker and allowing Ezeh(+0.5) to shoot into the backfield, forcing Tolzien to chuck it. (Pressure +1) Graham was, of course, coming hell for leather from the backside. Whatever hell for leather means.
M15	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Fade	Warren	15
Warren(-1) has great position but doesn't get his head around and ends up allowing Toon to make a spectacular catch; Warren also gets flagged for PI. I've made my opinion on PI known. No cover +/-.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-28, 10 min 3rd Q. Aaaaaaaaaaargh
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O34	1	10	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	Deep out	--	25 (Pen -10)
Tolzien has a zillion years (pressure -1) as Wisconsin max protects and Graham is getting a breather. He eventually finds a receiver wide open (cover -1); can't blame the secondary too much because of the protection but maybe a little bit. One reason for the time: Roh(+1) is getting held by the LT like whoah. It comes back, not that it will matter.
O24	1	20	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Ezeh	33
Nine frigging guys in the box and this still happens. Jesus. Heininger(-1) gets crushed inside and pancaked by the down-block. Kovacs(-2) totally misreads the play and actually tries to tackle the TE, and Ezeh(-2) hits inside of the Kovacs mess, leaving no one in the secondary. I can't believe he hasn't gotten pulled yet.
M43	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Ezeh	6
Ezeh does a good job of banging into the lead blockers right at the LOS, cutting off the hole, but then inexplicably starts spinning, which allows an OL to start driving him downfield. Brown(-1) then eats a block passively, allowing Clay to lurch forward.
M37	2	4	Ace Big	4-4 under	Pass	Waggle cross	Floyd	13
Floyd(-1) in man on the outside WR and is nowhere near the route; no pressure(-1) on the edge. (Cover -1)
M24	1	10	I-Form	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Mouton	4
Mouton(+0.5) does a good job of getting into a lead blocker behind the LOS, forcing Clay behind him; he trips over his OL. Graham(-0.5) had gotten caught by the snap count and blown off the line, ceding the room that Graham uses to pick up the yardage he gets.
M20	2	6	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Naked boot	Kovacs	1
Odd. Fortunate, too, as Graham had torn into the backfield and would have tackled this for a four yard loss. Instead Tolzien takes it himself and gets on the edge one-on-one with Kovacs(+1, tackling +1), who forms up and takes him down.
M19	3	5	Ace	4-4 under	Pass	TE Hitch	--	12
Brown(pressure +1) gets a free run at Tolzien on a blitz but Tolzien impressively stands in an nails a tight end (cover -1) in between like four guys. At this point, I am swearing like a sailor. ARGH
M7	1	G	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Graham	0
Graham(+1) is just a beast, tearing through the backside(!!!) tackle and pancaking him(!!!) en route to the tailback, who runs into Graham's side and slows, allowing Roh(+0.5) and Ezeh(+0.5) to converge and tackle for no gain.
M7	2	G	Ace Twins	4-3 under	Pass	TE flat	--	7
Wisconsin basically blocks Kovacs(cover -1), who's got coverage on the flat, and gets away with an obvious offensive PI. Touchdown. Anger.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-35, 2 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O40	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Martin	7
Actually well defended at the POA with linebackers rushing to the FB and taking out the hole right there but Martin(-1) attempted to come inside of the center and got sealed out of the play, opening a cutback lane.
O47	2	3	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Mouton	3
To the other side of the line. Kovacs is rolled up so this is a true nine-man front. He takes out a lead blocker, allowing Mouton(+0.5) to scrape to the hole and meet Clay there; Clay pops through a tackle somewhat and manages to fall forward for the first down.
50	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Mouton	13
Mouton(-2) gets lost in the middle of the field and there is no one to take on the tailback after Ezeh gets outside of the lead blocker. He's supposed to be there, unblocked, on this play and he's not, so it's a huge run.
M37	1	10	I-Form Big	4-4 under	Run	Power O	Mouton	3
Mouton(-1) manages to get it right this time and shows up in the hole but misses the tackle(-1) and allows the RB to fall forward; Roh(+0.5) had peeled off to help.
M34	2	7	Ace	4-4 under	Run	Counter pitch	Brown	16
Roh(-1) gets crushed inside and Brown(-2) gives up the corner, then gets escorted almost 20 yards downfield by a pulling UW OL.
M18	1	10	Ace Twins	4-4 under	Run	Power O?	Smith	-2
Maybe? I think the center is pulling but he gets delayed because Graham(+0.5) blew into him, allowing a blitzing Smith(+1) a free run at the tailback, which he uses to tackle.
M20	2	12	Ace Twins	4-4 under	Pass	Waggle flat	Ezeh	6
I can't help but notice both Mouton and Ezeh are two feet from each other as the rollout begins, which opens up the little flat route as Ezeh(-1) slowly chases. Quick fill from Brown(+1, tackling +1) ends up as a solid tackle to keep the gain down.
M14	3	6	Ace Twins	4-3 under	Run	Down G	Mouton	14
Both the C and the playside G pull around to the short side as UW overloads the wide side and there's no one except Roh and a couple of quasi- or actual defensive backs over there. Roh(-1) gets crushed back, and Mouton(-2) overruns the play, giving the RB a crease between Roh and Warren when if he had just taken the inside gap this is little or no gain.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-42, 12 min 4th Q. Wisconsin gets the ball back up three scores with nine minutes left and chokes out the rest of the game. Charting ceases.

Let's just get to the chart.

Before we get to this, I should say that I might have lost my mind at some point in the third quarter and started shooting out minuses to particularly incensing players on particularly incensing plays and some of the numbers may be exaggerated. It's tough to say that given the end result of the game, but I kept attempting to check my desire to throw out huge negative numbers; some rage probably slipped through into the numbers.

But, yes, chart.

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Graham	13.5	1.5	12	Poor pressure metric should slightly degrade your opinion here, though he did get two sacks and forced a defensive TD.
Heininger	2	2	0	One impressive play, a couple not so impressive ones.
Watson	-	-	-	DNP.
Roh	4	6	-2	Wisconsin was always going to be the team to own him.
Herron	-	-	-	DNP?
Martin	12.5	2	10.5	Huge day, especially early.
Van Bergen	1	1	0	Not a major factor.
Banks	1	-	-	One nice play for naught.
Sagesse	-	-	-	DNP
Campbell	1	-	-	Batted a pass.
TOTAL	35	12.5	22.5	21 tackles from the big two… you should have a great day against the run with that contribution.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Ezeh	1	11	-10	I can't believe he didn't get pulled.
Mouton	6.5	11	-4.5	Jonas Mouton: big positive, bigger negative.
Brown	4	6	-2	Gave up the edge a few times.
Fitzgerald	-	-	-	DNP
Leach	-	-	-	DNP
TOTAL	11.5	28	-16.5	ARRRGH
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Warren	-	2	-2	Had no work, basically.
Smith	3.5	7	-3.5	This should actually be filed under LB, maybe.
Floyd	-	1	-1	Eh.
Turner	-	-	-	DNP.
Woolfolk	-	1	-1	Also mostly a non-factor
Williams	-	-	-	DNP
Emilien	-	-	-	DNP
Kovacs	4	4	0	Did pretty okay. No idea why they moved him to deep safety; he's pretty effective in the box.
TOTAL	7.5	15	-7.5	Not much to do.
Metrics
Pressure	6	13	-7	Poor BG.
Coverage	7	19	-12	Ratio is awful.
Tackling	6	4	2	Still need to definite this more precisely.
RPS	3	0	3	Small number because UW just did the same thing over and over.

[A reminder: RPS is "rock, paper, scissors." Michigan gets a + when they call a play that makes it very easy for them to defend the opponent, like getting a free blitzer. They get a – when they call a play that makes it very difficult for them to defend the opponent, like showing a seven-man blitz and having Penn State get easy touchdowns twice.]

If I'd charted Wisconsin's last grinding drive that ended in a field goal and game over, man, the numbers here would have been even worse but general policy is not to chart stuff after the game is effectively over, and down three scores when the other guy has the ball with nine minutes left is over.

You rage, contrary to the above statement, seems particularly well-focused.

Yes. Most of the poor performances on the chart that can be explained by size or youth or confusion or all three. Roh was always going to get pwned by beef machine OL 100 pounds bigger than him. Brown is basically a safety playing LB. And poor Brandon Smith is a redshirt freshman with no playing experience who has flipped positions twice this year.

What positions can't be explained by talent or youth or whatever… well, you know the story: Mouton and Ezeh. Wisconsin's passing game was almost exclusively zingers over the middle to incredibly open receivers 20 or even 30 yards downfield. On every damn one both MLBs were vastly out of position and the throws were easy. The pair was also very poor in run support: Graham and Martin combined for 21 tackles. They combined for eight!

These are returning starters and redshirt juniors. They have gotten so much worse this year, and it's obvious to everyone from Bret Bielema to stupid bloggers with charts. There is not quite enough data to outright support the ouster of a coach but I find it hard to believe that Jay Hopson could be any good. Maybe he just got stuck with mugs, but Jesus these guys can't even scrape to the right hole when Wisconsin is literally running the same play to different sides of the line four times in a row. Is this a defensive scheme change? I don't think so. Run to the damn hole.

The only possible mitigating factor is that maybe I'm not perceiving some errors by the defensive line that make it really difficult for guys to play linebacker. If one of the coaches who hangs around these parts thinks this is the case, please let me know and I'll post something about it. But I don't think that is.

Q: where were Leach and Fitzgerald? They busted a couple times against Purdue but good lord at some point I think you have to put them in just in case they do better. I thought they were okay.

Is Brandon Smith better than Mike Williams?

No. His contributions were on a couple of unblocked blitzes; he was very hesitant in the run game and often got blocked into the next county. He looked like a freshman in his first game in a new system, which he is. He's still got a lot of time to get better, but having Williams on the field was a necessary evil.

Is there anything we can take out of this for next year?

Well, Mike Martin probably turned in the best game of his career. He was in the backfield a ton, picking up a sack and a couple other TFLs amongst double-digit tackles, and nearly matched Graham's typically Graham-like performance. It's just one game and Martin fell off after a gangbusters first quarter, so it's possible that Wisconsin was just not prepared for his quickness, but if he can do something half (maybe two-thirds) as good against Ohio State that will be a step towards Martin turning into the death beast everyone thinks he can be and Michigan will need with Graham off to terrorize people in the NFL.

The rest? Bupkis.

Heroes?

Graham and Martin.

Goats?

MLBs. See above.

What does this mean for Ohio State and next year?

See above about Martin. For Ohio State: doom.

A couple of notes: Michigan spent the entire game in its base formation and never once substituted at linebacker or in the secondary except when forced to by Mike Williams's injury. They rotated along the defensive line, with eight players (starters plus Heininger, Sagesse, Banks, and Herron) seeing time. The 4-3 under is just the base defense now and there's not a whole lot of surprise in what they're doing. The 30 front is a pass D 90% of the time. I think when you saw it on run plays it was actually what USC calls "double eagle" and was more of a 5-2, but I'm still a little rough on that.

Notre Dame went back to its 3-wide personnel as a base set and used Rudolph a lot like M uses Koger.

Also, make sure to check out Steve Sharik's defensive analysis. I haven't read it yet, so these opinions are not mingled with his.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	Ace 4-wide	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	Martin	0
This appears to be targeted at the gap between Graham and Martin, but Martin(+0.5) slashes past the center and Graham(+0.5) holds up against a double team, forcing Allen to bounce it to Brown, who's held up on the outside(+0.5) and tackles with safety help.
O20	2	10	Ace 4-wide	4-3 under	Run	Draw	RVB	25
Yikes, terrible play from two players opens up a huge hole. One: Van Bergen(-2) tries a cute pass-rush move around the RG and gets crushed; the guard gets under his pads and just drives him out of the hole. Two: Ezeh(-2) fails to read this or the direction of the play and actually moves into a block he didn't have to take. The center of the field is wide open.
O45	1	10	Shotgun Empty	4-3 under	Pass	TE Bubble screen	Brown	6
Tough to defend for Michigan from the snap because they've only got two defenders in the area plus deep safeties shaded over. Brown(+1) actually does a good job to avoid a cut block and track down Rudolph, slowing him until help can arrive. (Cover -1)
M49	2	4	I-Form	Base 4-3	Pass	TE Post	Woolfolk	Inc
Clausen has all day(pressure -2) and finds an open Rudolph as he streaks past Woolfolk (cover -1); he throws it long. Both backs stayed in to help; Roh's guy has his hands way outside his shoulder pads but doesn't make a spin sort of move in an attempt to draw a hold, instead he just bull rushes to nowhere.
M49	3	4	Shotgun Empty	30 front	Pass	Slant	Ezeh	24
I don't know if this is a bust or what but Michigan sends five and leaves the short middle wide open, so Rudolph runs a little slant that's wide, wide open (cover -2). Michigan, bizarrely, had Ezeh 10 yards off the LOS—safety depth—on third and four, which explains the wide open section of the field. WTF? Ezeh(-1) misses a tackle, turning ten yards into 25. Fail.
M25	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Bubble screen	--	10
Another bubble that's wide open from the snap, something that ND can apparently adjust to in ways OSU can't. With Brown pulled up to the LOS—Michigan is basically in an eight-man front against three-wide, this has no chance of not working. (Cover -2)
M15	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Pitch sweep	Brown	5
Michigan's linebacker alignment makes no sense here, with Ezeh and Mouton lined up almost on top of each other and Brown on the edge. Brown(+1) manages to get to the outside of Kamara and valiantly strings the play out, but with no linebackers in any spot to track Allen down he manages to fall forward as Mouton trips him from behind.
M10	2	5	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	PA corner	Williams	Inc
Williams(-1) blitzes off the corner into the running back, who doesn't have the ball, and ends up getting blocked by that guy. Clausen drops back about nine yards and has a ton of time (pressure -2) with the rest of the defense playing the run; he wings it wide of a sort of open Tate.
M10	3	5	Shotgun Empty	4-3 under	Run	QB draw	Graham	0
Graham(+2) owns his guy to the inside and tackles Clausen for no gain despite having an ND OL's arm wrapped around his neck. Missed holding call #1.
Drive Notes: Missed FG (28), 0-0, 10 min 1st Q. A lot of structural deficiencies in the defense on this one: both bubbles were basically indefensible and the Rudolph slant was a WTF formation. Ezeh off to a poor, poor start.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O28	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Comeback	Warren	5
Pressure(-2) is stoned and Clausen has a ton of time; downfield coverage(+1) is good and Clausen comes back to a short comeback route that Warren is in front on. Cissoko(-1) had totally lost Floyd on a dig, though, and if Clausen had seen it Floyd would have had 20 or 30 yards.
O33	2	5	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	Graham	3
Defensive line does a great job on this, but the linebackers are nowhere. Graham(+1) drives his guy back, forcing a cutback, and Martin discards his blocker and just can quite tackle for loss. Mouton avoids a block but it slows him up and it's actually Van Bergen(+0.5) coming from behind who makes this play. I'm not sure if the linebackers should have done this better.
O36	3	2	Ace 3TE	30 front bear	Pass	PA Fly	Williams	Inc
Who saw this playcall coming? The entire stadium? Okay then. Williams(+2), on a blitz, shoots through two blockers and makes a bee-line to Clausen (pressure +2), who chucks it off his back foot and OOB. Inside the tackle box, this is intentional grounding, but it isn't called. Warren(-2), by the way, had gotten smoked by Floyd(cover -2) and without the pressure this was going to be a touchdown.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 8 min 1st Q. Dodged a bullet.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O27	1	10	I-Form	4-3 under	Run	Iso	Ezeh	13
Michigan is pretty much boned on this from the snap as the defensive line slants away from a quick-hitting play and it's Stevie Brown and Ezeh trying to deal with a monster hole. Ezeh(-2) is pancaked by Rudolph, who sucked as a blocker against Nevada, and there's a huge hole into the secondary. Williams and Cissoko just barely keep this from being a long touchdown. I mean, this sucks from Ezeh. Michigan has a chance if he gets outside Rudolph and funnels the play back inside; he does not and it's very nearly six points.
O40	1	10	Ace Twin TE Empty	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Cissoko	15
Ugh. This is painfully, bizarrely open as Cissoko(-2) spends his time staring at the QB instead of the receiver, leaves this wide open(-1), and misses a tackle to compound everything and give Notre Dame eight extra yards.
M45	1	10	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Draw	Graham	5
Martin(+1) stands up to a double team and would hold this to no or little gain until Graham(-1) starts giving way against single blocking and a crease opens up. Mouton avoids a tackler and manages to wrap up but Ezeh(-0.5) has run himself into another blocker and can't help, thus allowing Allen to fall forward.
M40	2	5	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Screen	--	18
The overturned touchdown. This is just Michigan sending the house and getting caught. And yes, he's out of bounds, and they got it right.
M22	1	10	I-Form	4-3 under	Run	Pitch sweep	Mouton	1
Williams at the line and gets picked off by Rudolph, leaving a fullback and a pulling guard against the Michigan linebacking corps on the edge. Mouton(+1) blazes out to the corner and submarines the fullback, forcing it back inside where Brown(+0.5) tackles.
M23	2	9	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	Checkdown	Warren	4
Four-man rush against max pro is 7-on-4 and doesn't get much of anywhere (pressure -1), but the coverage is good (+1) and Clausen is forced to check down to Allen; Warren(+0.5) makes a solid tackle on the catch.
M18	3	5	Ace Twin TE Twins	4-3 under	Pass	Throwaway	Graham	Inc
Max pro again; three man rush. Graham(+1, pressure +1) is threatening to burst through (and is blatantly held) so Clausen decides to just chuck it because that's what he always does. Well out of the endzone. Cissoko(+1) gets praise from Millen for the coverage so OK. (Cover +1)
Drive Notes: FG (34), 7-3, 1 min 1st Q. Ensuing kickoff is returned for a touchdown. This is good. It's seven points. But it also throws the defense right back on the field after they've been out for a seven play drive. What stoutness existed, which wasn't much, gets very wobbly for the rest of the half. For instance: Graham is out for most of this drive, replaced by walk-on Will Heiniger.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O24	1	10	Wildcat	4-3 under	Run	End around	Mouton	5
Jeez... ND overloads the short side and has two extra blockers over there, something Michigan does not react to. Mouton(-1) is ridiculously hesitant and gets blocked out of the play, leaving the safeties to come up and tackle after a good gain.
O29	2	5	I-Form	4-3 under	Run	Iso	Heininger	4
Unsurprisingly, they run right at Heininger, who gives ground(-0.5). Ezeh(+0.5) does come up to cut off the outside and take out one of the doublers, allowing Heininger and Mike Martin to tackle slightly short of the sticks.
O33	3	1	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Pitch sweep	Ezeh
It's third and one and ND runs a no-deception pitch sweep and ND's no block tight end ends up blocking Ezeh six yards downfield. -2. Brown(-1) jumped inside on the snap and gave up the corner, too, but Roh's ability to get outside forced an Allen cut that might have been no gain if our MLB wasn't six yards away from the play facing 180 degrees in the wrong direction.
O38	1	10	I-Form	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Cissoko	37
Ugh. Nothing at all from the line not named Graham and Graham is doubled by a FB and stalemated (pressure -2). Clausen has his choice of wide open receivers (cover -2) as neither linebacker(-1 each) bothers to get a pass drop and cover Rudolph and Cissoko(-1) gets no help over the top and gets burned badly by Floyd. Result is an easy long completion.
M23	1	10	I-Form	4-3 under	Pass	Dig	--	13
Max pro again but why bother when neither of your RBs has to bother picking anyone up? No one gets within five yards of Clausen (pressure -2) and Clausen has forever to find Tate on a dig; Williams tackles immediately. Can't blame the secondary here.
M10	1	G	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Run	Inside zone	Ezeh	6
Eight man front. Sagesse(+1) does a great job of driving the center, who's playside of him, back into the play and forcing a cutback. Tailback now has two gaps, one of which is filled by a charging Mouton, the other filled with... air because Obi Ezeh(-1) has also hit that gap. Gaaaah. Allen slams up into the hole and three guys are now shoving Roh and the pile moves; Allen does a good job of squirting for some extra yards but this should have been no gain.
M4	2	G	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Out	Cissoko	4
Terrible coverage from Cissoko(-1, cover -1) makes this super easy. You're on the four, man.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-10, 12 min 2nd Q. Ezeh is killing us in the ground game and no one on the line can get any pressure.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O31	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Screen	--	13 (Pen -10)
Young gets a holding call for tackling Graham(+1) as he attempts to get to the QB. Notre Dame is constantly doing this. Stupid play on a screen. ND sets this up well and gets Ezeh blocked and a cutback safeties come up to tackle.
O21	1	20	Shotgun Empty	30 front	Penalty	Delay of Game	--	Pen -5
Oops.
O16	1	25	I-Form	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Cissoko	33
Well, that's one way to get out of first and twenty five. Again max protect again a four-man rush, again Graham gets doubled and the rest of the line does nothing, and Cissoko is on an island against Floyd and can't do anything about it. (Cover –2, pressure -1) It seems insane that Michigan is shading the safeties over Warren and selling Cissoko out to dry.
O49	1	10	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Warren	Inc
Superior deep coverage as ND loads up and goes after Warren(+2, cover +1) this time one-on-one with Tate. Warren is a half-step behind and rakes the ball away as it arrives. No pressure(-2) at all again.
O49	2	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	Brown	11
Ezeh(+0.5) actually does a good job of cutting off one inside gap and gets to the right side of a blocker to do so. Graham's flowed down the line and can make a tackle if this gets slowed at all but Brown(-1) attempts to cut back into a gap that's not his and falls, opening a lane for Allen.
M40	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Inside zone	Herron	4
Kamara motions in to make this sort of a 2TE look. ND doubles and easily seals Herron(-1), opening up the outside, and with Brown trying to get inside of Kamara really what Gray should do is shoot it outside into huge space; he doesn't, instead cutting it up because of Brown's aggression. +0.5, I guess, for results-based charting. Ezeh's got sort of a tough job because Rudolph got a quick release, but he just sort of shoulder-blasts Rudolph and ends up on the wrong side of the play and Gray's error goes from zero yards to four. –0.5.
M36	2	6	Ace 3-wide	30 front	Pass	Out	Cissoko	11 + 12 Pen
Michigan in a 3-4 look and what the hell is Herron doing? He's just sort of hopping around the LOS, not rushing or dropping. Screen protection? Michigan gets Ezeh in on a delayed blitz but it's too late as Tate comes open on a deep hitch against Warren, again on an island. (Cover -1) Rouging the passer on Ezeh(-2) provides 12 more.
M12	1	10	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	Sagesse	1
Michigan stunting and Sagesse(+1) comes from the interior to the outside, shoving his guy back, holding his ground, and delaying the tailback long enough for a slashing Mouton(+1) blitz to come home. What... a positive play?
M11	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Fade	Warren	11
This is pretty close to indefensible. Cover -1, I guess.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-17, 7 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O42	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Delay	Mouton	15
Terrible, terrible from Mouton(-3), who just turns his back and heads into a pass drop on a play that has a pulling guard. Hey... maybe that's a run. Yep. Meanwhile, Herron(-1) gets sealed inside and Allen has an easy time of getting to the secondary.
O27	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Delay	Graham	-1
Same play. Michigan's flipped their formation, though, and has Graham(+2) on the side the run goes to. He shucks a blocker, darts through the line and crushes the run with help from an aggressive Warren(+0.5). This time Mouton decides to see what the play is before reacting.
O28	2	11	Ace 3-wide	30 front	Run	Off tackle	Woolfolk	1
Same play from an earlier drive with Kamara motioning in for the 2TE look. Michigan is in a man look, as Woolfolk moves with Kamara, and this allows him to attack as soon as he sees Kamara set up to run block. The quick reaction gets Woolfolk(+1) in; he sets up outside, forces the play back to help, and tackles on the cut. No one blocked Ezeh, so he helps out. That was because Graham(+0.5) took two blockers.
O27	3	10	Ace 3-wide	30 front	Pass	Screen	Brown	18 (Pen -5)
This is a three man rush, and a screen gets Notre Dame down to the nine. Ugh. Brown(-2) and Ezeh(-1) are late reacting. Flags help out, though. Michigan turns down a downfield hold and accepts an illegal shift.
O32	3	15	Shotgun 3-wide	30 front	Pass	Dumpoff	Roh	7
Another three man rush works, forcing Clausen to check down(cover +1) and get within reasonable field goal range.
Drive Notes: FG(42), 14-20, 3 min 2nd Q. Very fortunate, again.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	I-Form	4-3 under	Pass	Scramble	Graham	6 (Pen -10)
Williams rolled up for 8 in the box. Notre Dame goes play action and Graham(+1) is about to burst through until he gets collared by the LG, drawing a holding flag. Clausen scrambles out for a few yards. (Pressure +1)
O10	1	20	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Long handoff	Cissoko	9
Cissoko, petrified, is ten yards deep and moving backwards at the snap; “duh” read for ND. (Cover -1, Cissoko -1)
O19	2	11	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Slant	Warren	12
Michigan sends five and drops into what looks like a very deep zone, opening up Floyd(cover -2) underneath for big yardage. This kind of looks a tiny bit like man but it's hard to tell; if so that would be a minus for Warren. Graham was closing here so no minus on the pressure.
O31	1	10	Ace 4-wide	4-3 under	Run	Draw	Brown	-5
Another five man rush gets Brown(+1) in unblocked; he reads the play correctly and attacks the tailback, which doesn't actually make the guy fumble—he just fumbled—but does prevent him from getting it back. Mouton(+1) recovers.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 17-20, 9 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M45	1	10	I-Form	4-3 under	Run	Draw	Brown	-1
Eight in the box. This seems like a screwed up read from Allen because Roh flies upfield and both linebackers get swallowed up, leaving a big lane to bounce outside in. Instead, Allen runs into the back of one of his OL so hard he falls over. +0.5 for RVB and Martin for holding up and preventing creases. After the bounce, Brown(+1) disengages from Rudolph and tracks Allen down for loss with help from Warren.
M46	2	11	Shotgun Empty	30 front	Pass	Throwaway	Ezeh	Inc
Michigan sends six against five blockers and math says they get someone through (pressure +1). They actually get two, one of whom is Ezeh(+0.5) and Clausen just wings it because that's what Clausen does immediately whenever anyone comes within five feet of him. Not that we have a whole lot of evidence for that assertion in this game.
M46	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	30 front	Pass	Screen	RVB	Inc
Three man rush, which I hate except it ND throws a screen so we win RPS. RVB(+1), stunting, reads this and starts tracking Allen, slashing past a blocker, and Warren(+1) also attacks the ball effectively, causing Clausen to turf it. (Cover +2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-20, 6 min 3rd Q. Big stop after a long KO return from ND.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O4	1	10	I-Form	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Cissoko	Inc (Pen +15)
Who's surprised by this call? No one. Roh's held in the endzone, but no call, and Cissoko is running with Tate along the sideline, looking for the ball. It falls incomplete, and the guy staring right at it says incomplete. Five seconds later the back judge, who was 30 yards away, throws a flag. This is super ticky-tack, because Cissoko is arm-fighting with Tate. But I guess if you whine all day about it the backjudge gets misty. Results-based here (Cover -1, Cissoko -1)
O19	1	10	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	PA Out	Williams	71 (Pen -10)
Lot of eight man fronts in this half. On this one, ND runs play action that sucks the entire linebacking corps way up, leaving Rudolph unbelievably wide open ten yards downfield with no one even near him (cover -3, -1 Ezeh, -1 Wiliams). Woolfolk(-2) then misses a tackle 40 yards downfield and gives him the rest. Holding brings it back, as Young locked his arms into Roh's and wrestled him to the ground with another hand outside his shoulder pad. “Pancake blocks” don't happen on pass protection. Roh gets a +1. (Pressure +1)
O9	1	20	I-Form	4-3 under	Pass	PA Out	Cissoko	12
I still fail to see why the coverage is shaded towards Warren all day and Cissoko is just left to rot against Floyd. This is way open but it's hard to blame a guy on an island with Mike Floyd. (Cover -1)
O21	2	8	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Bubble screen	Inc
Dropped by Kamara. It seems like Woolfolk(+1) reacted quickly and would hold this down anyway. (Cover +1)
O21	3	8	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Throwaway	Graham	Inc
Wow, Michigan loads up and sends seven(!), which gets Graham(+1), through unblocked (pressure +2) and Clausen, as always, just chucks it.
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-20, 2 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Bubble screen	Woolfolk	6
Woolfolk(+0.5) reacts immediately, takes a blocker, and bounces off to tackle but Warren(-0.5) seems to react much more slowly, allowing Kamara five instead of just a couple.
O26	2	4	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	Mouton	5
Excellent push from Martin(+0.5) and Graham(+0.5) forces a cutback but Mouton(-1) is tardy, and gets blocked downfield and cannot help Roh, who's crashing down from the backside to tackle. With nothing from the linebackers, everyone falls forward.
O31	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Deep hitch	Graham	Inc
Graham(+1), finally single-blocked, smokes the RT and hits Clausen as he's throwing (pressure +1) to Tate, blanketed by Warren(+1, cover +1)
O31	2	10	I-Form	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Warren	Inc
Michigan sends five; their big halftime adjustment to this point is to get more aggressive. Ezeh(+0.5) eventually splits two blockers and forces Clausen to launch at Tate, covered by Warren(+1), who recovers and rakes the ball away. This is not a drop. It's a PBU. (Cover +1)
O31	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	30 front	Pass	Dig	--	14
Argh backing out into a zone and rushing three here. Clausen, accordingly, has all day (pressure -2) and can even roll out at a leisurely pace and find Floyd cutting across the field. I absolutely do not understand a call like this when you can hardly stop these guys except when you get pressure. If you're worried about a screen leave a spy in. Mouton(-1) vacated his zone, opening up the throw.
O45	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Slant	Woolfolk	12
Kovacs is in the game now... they never showed Williams go out, but he will play the rest of the fourth quarter. This was thrown in front of Woolfolk(-1, cover -1), and neither he or Ezeh can tackle immediately, giving up another five.
M43	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Slant	Cissoko	Inc
This appears to be on Floyd for being a wuss, as Michigan drops Mouton into a zone over the slant and he just pulls up on it instead of take a chance of getting lit up. As a result, it goes directly to Cissoko, who drops it. I won't minus him but here's a stern look. (Cover +1)
M43	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	30 front	Penalty	Delay	--	-5
This batty formation with Ezeh at safety depth, but it's delay of game.
M48	2	15	Shotgun 4-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Comeback	Cissoko	10
Well-executed in front of Cissoko and behind Herron in what looks like zone. (Cover -1) This is the “headless Graham” play, which does not get flagged. CONSPIRACY
M38	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Pitch sweep	Mouton	6
Michigan appears to be blitzing Ezeh away from the direction of the play, which makes this tough to stop. But what is Mouton(-1) doing? He's flowing down the line and is determined to get outside when he's the only linebacker to the inside and this is a third and five. So he cedes ground voluntarily, actually ending up seven yards downfield, before finally cutting up when he sees that Graham(+0.5) has forced a cut up. Martin tackles from behind but again: with no linebacker help the tailback just heads forward. This has been a constant theme over the last two weeks.
M32	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Cissoko	Inc
Just a straight fly Cissoko(-2, cover -2) gets smoked on. Tate catches it but it pops out when he hits the ground for an incompletion. Roh(+1) would have gotten to Clausen on the backside if not for the LT holding him around the corner. On replay it looks like Cissoko may have had some small impact on the drop so I'll bump him up to -1, -1.
M32	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	30 front	Pass	Hitch	Cissoko	8
Easy pitch and catch in front of that guy again(cover -1, Cissoko -1), and this time it's not even one of the big stars, it's a freshman. Blitz came but Clausen was clean (pressure -1)
M24	3	2	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Delay	Roh	2
This is actually a play from Ezeh(+2), who slashes up into the backfield, takes on the outside shoulder of a blocker, and delays Allen, almost tackling him for loss. He gets no help, though, with Roh(-1) blasted off the ball and Cissoko in press against Floyd, and Allen manages to get the corner... sort of. He's pushed OOB about a half yard shy of the first.
M22	4	In	Ace	4-3 under	Run	QB sneak	--	1
They get it.
M21	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Cissoko	21
All, all, all day as Michigan rushes three and drops a couple DEs, including Graham, into coverage. Doesn't matter. Tate gets Cissoko to turn his hips and then breaks off a hitch just past the sticks; Cissoko recovers and actually makes his best break on the ball of the day, coming an inch away from getting a PBU. He doesn't, and he doesn't make a tackle, and Tate walks into the endzone. (Cover -1, Cissoko -1.) Results-based charting but hey, at least he had a shot at it this time. Pressure -2, by the way.
M3	2pt	2pt	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Rollout flat	Brown	Inc
Allen is offset, which tips no run and indicates a rollout, which happens. Michigan covers everyone(+1) and Kovacs(+1!) zips through the line on a blitz, forcing Clausen to get rid of the ball earlier than he might otherwise. Pass is broken up. (Pressure +1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2pt failed), 31-26, 9 min 4th Q. At this point I just don't understand not blitzing the hell out of Clausen. He's just going to torch the secondary if no one gets to him and when someone's gotten to him he hasn't made one play. He just chucks it.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M36	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	TE out	Rudolph	8
Supposed to be a quick pass as ND chops all the linemen, and Rudolph comes open as ND high-lows a zone. (Cover -1)
M28	2	2	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Cissoko	Inc
Just chuckin' it deep on Cissoko again; this time he's actually got good position and can get himself between Floyd and his route, which he does... and then flagrantly bumps him, drawing a flag (-1, cover -1) that's deserved, then waved off because the throw was yards out of bounds. Michigan sent a blitz and this is another Jimmah chuck special. (Pressure +1)
M28	3	2	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Draw	Ezeh	3
Martin slices through the line and could be in line for a plus here but doesn't make his tackle attempt, or even slow Allen down, so nothing. Ezeh(+1), on the other hand, reads, sets up the downfield blocker, and then slashes past him to tackle, though not before Allen picks up a first. Good play; tough to stop a third and two run when you have six guys in the box.
M25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Cissoko	Inc
Blitz gets Ezeh through clean and Graham(+1) beats his guy. Jimmah: chuck. (Pressure +1). Cissoko is in good position (+1, cover +1); the ball drags Floyd out of the endzone with help from Cissoko. We should just be sending guys in waves.
M25	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Warren	8
Sending the house again (seven), no one clean through but Clausen has to fire quick. Warren(-1) gets turned and allows an eight-yard hitch(cover -1).
M17	3	2	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	Graham	9
Graham(-2) does not maintain outside contain, moving inside and getting sealed by the ND LT, which provides a massive cutback lane no one can do anything about. Martin actually tracks him down from behind, saving a touchdown. For now.
M8	1	G	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	RVB	8
Same play flipped. RVB(-1) gets crushed out of the hole; Martin avoids a cut but cannot close down the hole because RVB's been so hammered and Ezeh(-1) just sort of waits for the play to come to him. It does. In the endzone.
M3	2pt	2pt	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Statue of liberty	--	3
Michigan is sending the house and just runs by it.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2pt), 31-34, 5 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O16	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	Ezeh	13
Michigan draws up and blitzes from the string side of the field, away from where the run goes. Roh(-2) just sets up way too deep, giving Ezeh a choice between trying to fill a hole between he and RVB or bouncing outside; he picks inside and lets it bounce. Wrong answer(-1 Ezeh). Allen just jets outside for a first down. Roh is dragged to the ground on a hold... sort of.
O29	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	RVB	0
RVB(+1) gets under Stewart and blows him back, forcing a cutback that's swarmed by Graham, Ezeh, and Kovacs. +0.5 for Ezeh for taking on a block and cutting off the gap; the other guys were pursuit.
O29	2	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Warren	Inc
Hey, that's a good idea. Warren(+2) running stride for stride with Tate, looks for the ball, and has an equal chance of getting this. (Cover +2). If this is interference, DBs have no right to the ball ever.
O29	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Cissoko	Inc
Bring the house and Clausen throws it wide. This one, I think, is on Jimmah. (Pressure +1) Cissoko(-1, cover -1) beat... on third and ten in this situation when you know Michigan is bringing the house. That's just dumb.
Drive Notes: Punt, 31-34, 2 min 4th Q. Final play is academic and not charted.

Wow, so you really want to start the UFR with a downer this week, eh?

It's time to get your pie-in-the-sky ideas about winning the conference out of your head, bolded alter-ego.

Who says I have those?

Everyone.

That bad, was it?

Yes, basically. I was hoping that the tape would show a huge array of awesome plays by Notre Dame that valiant Michigan defenders just could not stop because Tate and Floyd are future NFL receivers and Rudolph is awesome and so forth and so on. I didn't, really, especially in the run game, I just saw a ton of horrible play by Michigan.

Sounds like something you'd explain with a chart?

Chart.

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Graham	12	3	9	Generous, IMO, since a few pluses came when he came free when Michigan sent the house, but he was the main source of pressure and was doubled on almost every play..
Heininger	-	0.5	-0.5	His play responsible for a big chunk of the negative pressures in the second half.
Patterson	-	-	-	DNP
Roh	2	3	-1	Drew a key hold but mostly neutralized. Looked like a freshman.
Herron	-	2	-2	Nonfactor.
Martin	2.5	-	2.5	Decent tracking down the run but zero pass rush.
Van Bergen	2.5	3	-0.5	Looked a lot like an out of position DE.
Sagesse	2	-	2	Actually did pretty well. I wonder if Michigan might think of moving Martin over and starting Sagesse? That would also give Graham a backup.
TOTAL	20	11.5	8.5	Seriously mitigated by the –8 pressure number; front four could not get to the QB. Poor overall performance.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Ezeh	5.5	14	-8.5	That is the biggest number in the minus column in UFR history.
Mouton	3	8	-5	Major regression from last year; often went into pass drops without bothering to see if it was a run.
Brown	4.5	4	0.5	One eyed man in the land of no tackles.
Fitzgerald	-	-	-	DNP
Demens	-	-	-	Don't think he played.
TOTAL	13	26	-13	An outright disaster.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Warren	8	1.5	6.5	Excellent day against tough customers. Good run support.
Cissoko	2	12	-10	The biggest negative day from a DB in UFR history.
Floyd	-	-	-	DNP
Turner	-	-	-	DNP
Woolfolk	2	3.5	-1.5	Was not tested often with M in cover one much of the day.
Williams	-	2	-2	Merph.
Emilien	-	-	-	DNP
Kovacs	1	-	1	Nice story.
TOTAL	13	19	-6	Warren, and then nothing, coverage to compound.
Metrics
Pressure	11	19	-8	No pressure from front four, blitzes in second half got M its few stops.
Coverage	15	31	-16	Blearghhhhhhh

Recall that as you move away from the ball UFR tends towards negative numbers, so the worst position group on the day were the linebackers, who were a disaster, and that the DL's mildly positive performance is nothing to get excited about. No one other than Graham, Warren, and the rotating NT had anything approximating a decent day.

Aaaaaargh aaargh my eyes.

Words cannot describe how bad Obi Ezeh was in this game. It was a disaster, and this is a guy who's in his third year starting. Maybe the double switch of defensive coordinators has him behind the times for a third-year starter but that doesn't go much towards explaining a –8.5 that would have been worse if he hadn't been turned loose on a couple blitzes. Meanwhile, Jonas Mouton has been negative in both games so far after a promising finish to last year.

Is it Ezeh? Is it Mouton? A lack of depth? A scheme change? I know none of these things, but I look at Stevie Brown, who also switched positions and schemes, in his case more severely than either of the inside linebackers. He's doing okay. He came out of this game slightly positive, which made him the third-best player on the field. He is the property of Greg Robinson.

Mouton and Ezeh belong to Jay Hopson, and the inside backers are the only guys who belong to Jay Hopson, and they're playing terribly. As far as recruiting goes, Hopson got shut out of Mississippi last year and was the guy responsible for recruiting both defensive tackles who bolted on Signing Day. Michigan got shut out, and I don't recall any recruit mentioning Hopson this year. This blog's even got a tag about Mississippi because of it, and this year Michigan has shifted its focus away from all the places Hopson has connections. The number of kids they're recruiting in Mississippi is zero, and I can't recall anyone they're seriously involved with who's in the deep south.

Unless the two inside guys get radically better over the rest of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if Hopson was replaced.

Cissoko: the second coming of Markus Curry?

Man, he was bad, but on review I saw some of the things people were talking about. Michigan appeared to play field/boundary with Warren the boundary guy—ie, the guy who lines up to the short side of the field—and Cissoko the field guy. Then they shaded the safeties over Warren. So Warren got a good bit of help and Cissoko was often just one-on-one with death receivers.

This was really weird to me since Warren is the veteran at full health you'd expect to get stuck on an island and Cissoko the dinged n00b dwarf attempting to check Mike Floyd. That went horribly. And it can't be blamed entirely on Cissoko. But… yeah, it went horribly and there were flags and many, many completions and Cissoko looked like a guy who's going to get picked on all year. And there's nothing M can do about it, probably, with the corner depth as impossibly low as it is.

So this Sagesse guy is okay?

He hasn't seen much time but I have him down for +5 in that time with no minuses. Given the depth situation at DE and RVB's seeming inability to hold up—not surprising at 6'5" 270 something—doesn't it make sense to try Sagesse out as a starting NT and slide Martin over to the 3-tech? RVB can then back up the 3-tech and Graham. The line adds 30-40 pounds and doesn't have to roll out a walk-on when Graham needs a blow.

This is dependent on Sagesse's play not being a mirage based on small sample size, but he's looked at least functional to date, and as Will Campbell comes on line there will be some depth at DT.

Man you were wrong about Notre Dame, weren't you?

In some ways, yes. I underestimated how competent their offensive line was badly, and in retrospect expecting Notre Dame to forge ahead with I-form sets when Michigan basically can't go to a nickel and the starting fullback is out was idiotic. But, man, every time Clausen got the slightest bit of pressure he just chucked the ball, usually off his back foot, and never accurately. Future ND opponents should spy for screens and send the house again and again.

I do have some questions about what the hell Michigan was doing schematically. No help for Cissoko, a lot of cover one that made those fly routes available, erratic blitzing that didn't really get in gear until the second half… at least they adjusted somewhat, but I think Robinson had a subpar game. Not that he was working with gold here.

Heroes?

Brandon Graham and Donovan Warren performed like the 1st or 2nd round NFL draft picks they're likely to be. After two games you should feel free to upgrade your opinion of Warren to near-lockdown corner. Brandon Graham should remain Brandon Graham in your estimation.

Goats?

Basically everyone else. But Ezeh, Cissoko, and Mouton come in for special approbation.

What does it mean for Eastern Michigan and the future?

This is not a good defense even at full health. I don't think anyone on the schedule will be able to take advantage of its specific deficiencies quite as easily as Notre Dame did, but much of ND's day was just easy. The lack of depth on the defensive line will be a constant problem as Michigan will be rotating to walk-ons and poor replacements. The inside linebackers look completely lost. And power running teams are probably going to be able to blast Michigan off the ball. And I don't think Cissoko is any good, injured shoulder or not.

Michigan had better hope that Notre Dame's defensive line has gone from subpar to outstanding with the OL coach switch, because if the DL's performance looks more like the ND game than the Western game going forward Michigan is going to be in a lot of shootouts.