jake thaw

11/4/2023 – Michigan 41, Purdue 13 – 9-0, 6-0 Big Ten

It is a measure of how spoiled Michigan fans are that when their quarterback completes two-thirds of his passes for 9.1 yards an attempt—with some drops in there—everyone is perturbed about What Happened To JJ McCarthy. In a larger sense, nothing at all, get a grip. In a smaller, paranoid sense: well, yeah. Purdue's defensive approach did pose some questions to a Michigan offense that was dead-set on not providing answers after going up 17-0 before the PSU-MD-OSU gauntlet to end the regular season.

The number one thing Purdue did was rush a bunch of DTs. The third guy in the middle rarely did anything directly, but he eliminated the possibility of those "look for work" blocks you see when an interior OL doesn't have anyone to block and decides to hog-wallop someone engaged with one of his buddies. Also because he was rarely getting any rush, Purdue did a much better job than anyone else on the schedule at keeping McCarthy in the pocket.

The results alternated between downs where Michigan got the man-to-man they expected and McCarthy could just throw it to Roman Wilson for 20 yards and ones where Purdue popped into a zone. On those snaps McCarthy hesitated, and then his Let's Break The Pocket And Fire All The Missiles timer went off. He'd move to do that, find that the doors were closed, and then fire inaccurate balls because his feet weren't in the right place. He was caught between states.

This is to say that a big chunk of the problems that caused JJ McCarthy to only complete two-thirds of his passes for 9.1 yards an attempt are fixable, and will probably be fixed.

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The rest of the game went like they all have so far: the defense gives up approximately nothing. There are a couple mistakes that set the opponent up for their desultory first-half score, and then the opponent gets to have a touchdown after the stadium has emptied out. The only unusual things were a couple of fourth-quarter drives for the starting offense, possibly because they haven't played a full four quarters all year and Michigan wanted them to get that under their belt before Penn State, and the relative wobbliness of McCarthy.

Afterwards, Ryan Walters was mad. Was he mad that Connor Stalions had somehow robbed him of victory? Was he mad that Illinois didn't win last year? I don't know. Everyone seems absolutely furious about Stalions going overboard on an activity that is everyday, commonplace, and Walters personally participated in.

Everyone is just as mad as they can be, except Michigan fans. That last outpost of sanity is set to fall in a couple days if and when the Big Ten levies an unprecedented suspension to the head coach of a team that would have won every game they've played this year by multiple scores if Connor Stalions happened to be a massive Colorado School of Mines fan instead of Michigan. At this point, Michigan will join the frothing masses. The already frothed will be furious that Michigan's players are still allowed to compete for a championship. They will fulminate about how desperately unfair it all is, and Michigan fans will fulminate about the same thing.

All of this because of the idea that Michigan has somehow ruined the sport because one guy got a marginal advantage in a part of the sport that can easily be defeated by writing things down on a piece of paper and sticking it on your wrist. This is going to go down as the stupidest moral panic in the history of the sport.

We are headed for the biggest Die Mad of all time. Nothing can stop it. The only question is who will in fact be Dying Mad. The stakes have never been higher, or dumber.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1T Michael Barrett, Braiden McGregor, Jaylen Harrell, Derrick Moore, and Josiah Stewart. Michigan's rotate ALL THE GUYs approach on defense has made it difficult for anyone on the defense to dislodge offensive players, particularly JJ McCarthy from the top spot. And, yeah, the highest number of pass rush snaps any individual defender got in this game: 17. But Michigan collected 20 pressures on 30 dropbacks, so I'm sticking all these guys in at the top. Three points each. McGregor and Harrell get bonus points for combining on a third and short stop.

#2 Roman Wilson. Nine catches on ten targets, and while the tenth was a low but catchable ball the important thing was that no Purdue defensive back was able to even make it a contest. Zero of his targets were contested.

#3 Will Johnson. Interception, a couple more PBUs, ceded three yards a target per PFF. More discussion below.

Honorable mention: Well okay yes JJ McCarthy completed two-thirds of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt. Colston Loveland had a beautiful back-shoulder catch and nearly brought in a circus catch; Semaj Morgan is fast. Rod Moore had an endzone PBU and a second PBU that was less salutary.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

44: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR)
23: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU)
15: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR)
13: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU)
11: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR)
10: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU), AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU), Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR)
9: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR)
7: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV), Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR), 3: Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn), The Offensive Line (HM Minn), Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rod Moore (HM PUR)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Donovan Edwards gets one on one with a linebacker, signaling that Ryan Walters's stuff isn't going to work in this one.

Honorable mention: The ease with which Michigan converted their goal to go opportunities. Semaj Morgan puts the game to bed with the world's most wide open jet sweep. McCarthy nails a back shoulder to Loveland. Will Johnson gets a pick somewhat reminiscent of his first against Purdue last year.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Purdue stuffs a fourth and one near the end of the first half. This was not the first gaffe in the period of gaffes but it was the one that established it was going to be an annoying quarter and a half.

Honorable mention: Punt hits a gunner, leading to a turnover and a Purdue field goal. DJ Waller gives up a long reception. Purdue scores with 30 seconds left, robbing Michigan of the cover and giving a thousand screeching Ohio State fans on twitter the ability to say THEY DIDN'T COVER.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Ryan Walters gives Jim Harbaugh the drive-by handshake because he's just so mad that Michigan may or may not have had their signals. Expect news to break this week about Walters; there's a reason Michigan was using wristbands in this game.

Dishonorable mention: N/A

9/23/2023 – Michigan 31, Rutgers 7 – 4-0, 1-0 Big Ten

On Saturday I looked at my watch halfway through the fourth quarter and said "what?" It was 2:50 PM. Michigan would strangle out the last seven minutes with a series of punishing Kalel Mullings runs and go home in an NFL time window. Which is nice, I guess, if the alternative is the networks finding a way to stick in another 10 minutes of commercials in there. It's also nice if you have to do a UFR. But it's not so nice if you're used to a certain amount of football and then there's far less of that.

Michigan's approach to the first third of the season has been to land some body blows and then get the heck out of dodge. This tweet is a week out of date now but that means it it overstates how many plays per minute Michigan is getting in after Michigan and Rutgers combined for 105 in 60 minutes, a play rate of 1.75:

Who plays fast and who plays slow in college football? Here's an updated look at the plays per minute data through Week 3:

1. Tennessee - 3.06
2. TCU - 2.82
3. South Florida - 2.81

131. Michigan - 1.91
132. Rice - 1.77
133. Air Force - 1.77https://t.co/Inp8DhJ7Mu

— Chris Hummer (@chris_hummer) September 21, 2023

The average FBS team is averaging 2.3 plays per minute, so the Rutgers game, in its entirety, was just the first three quarters of an average FBS game. It was barely more than half your average Tennessee game.

This fact combines with the second straight year of cupcake nonconference scheduling and Michigan's tendency to pull anyone with so much as a hangnail to lend the season an air of unreality. Michigan feels like they're simming this season until the Penn State game. We have not left yet the preseason portion of the schedule.

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Various members of the media have issued condescending little pieces about how the new clock rules aren't making a major impact and that commercial time hasn't increased. The argument appears to be that commercial breaks are only as intolerable as they were last year, when they were completely intolerable. Hooray?

The Alabama-Texas game officially lasted three hours and 24 minutes, of which approximately 45 minutes (not including halftime) were commercials. We compared that broadcast with three 2022 SEC games on ESPN. They followed the same format and averaged between 45 and 46 minutes. No noticeable change from last year.

This article then goes on to detail how the networks have eight commercial breaks per half of football, which is the same number of breaks an entire college basketball game has and eight more than any soccer game ever broadcast. Then were are expected to feel grateful, somehow, that there are the same number of commercial breaks being inserted into less football. I'm not sure why the authors of these pieces can't divide.

Meanwhile I've watched halftime shows in back-to-back weeks in which 1) BGSU brought their band for a full halftime and 2) Michigan had their extended homecoming halftime show; both of those events ended with 8 minutes on the halftime clock. If they wanted to cut time they could easily have adopted the same 15-minute halftime that the NFL does. But if a TV exec calls up a sports journalist these folks jump at the opportunity.

In Michigan's case, the way they play their games exacerbates the clock issues. Teams that have four-play scoring drives are seeing a bit of time roll off the clock before it stops for a touchdown or an incomplete pass or whatever. Michigan's tendency to go on long, grinding marches means there are more instances where the clock is running when it otherwise would have been stopped. This effect was even more pronounced in the Ohio State-Notre Dame game, which was largely bereft of explosive plays but featured a lot of first downs. Those teams racked up 129 plays, barely over two per minute. There were 39 first downs in that game; if 30 of them saw the clock run when it otherwise would not the new clock rules lopped the last five minutes off that game. Five minutes are reputed to be forever late in games, so while we're being told that the new rules aren't really doing anything, you could be forgiven for feeling like they're having an absolutely massive impact.

In Michigan's case this can be spun as a good thing since guys are less likely to get hurt… except apparently they're getting hurt in practice a bunch. If most of your hitting occurs when you're getting ready for the game, then the injury benefits of fewer plays are marginal. Personally, I'd like to see more things happen and fewer insurance commercials, but maybe someone who went to Medill can tell me why that's wrong.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

zing a zang zoop [Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mike Sainristil. Jumped a tunnel screen(!) for an interception. Then flipped Junior Colson over his head, kept his balance, burst out of the pack, and ran for a 71-yard touchdown. He even switched the ball to the appropriate arm. Also had two QB hurries, bringing his pass rush win rate up to 36% this year. Took the blame for the Rutgers touchdown even though he was responsible for maybe 15 of those yards because he's a captain.

#2 JJ McCarthy. It says something about how distorted our expectations got after the first two weeks when I thought McCarthy had kind of a rough day and then the box score says he averaged 10 YPA and ran for 60 yards. After a couple hiccups early he was locked in.

#3 Junior Colson, Ernest Haussman, and Michael Barrett. Each of Michigan's linebackers came in for an eyepopping play; my favorite was Barrett shooting up into a free-releasing OL and then ripping him to the ground. Hausmann got to the sideline on an early lead stretch and blasted the RB back into Wimsatt; Colson was again ably tackling in space. Two points each.

Honorable mention: Quinten Johnson had a third-down stick and a PBU. Blake Corum was doing Blake Corum things. Max Bredeson continues to thump linebackers. Colston Loveland had a buttzone catch down the seam and several other catches besides. Semaj Morgan got a tunnel screen early and a back-shoulder TD late. Kris Jenkins blew up two short yardage conversions, though the first was called back for a false start.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

21: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers)
14: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers)
11: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers)
8: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV), Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU), Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU)
5: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV), Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers)
3: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), AJ Barner (HM BGSU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers), Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Sainristil's weaving pick-six closes the door on any reasonable chance of a Rutgers comeback.

Honorable mention: Colston Loveland grabs a seam route, demonstrating the Ups. Michigan stuffs a fourth down emphatically, even if it didn't count.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Rod Moore misses a tackle to stake Rutgers to an early lead.

Honorable mention: JJ McCarthy's first two passes are not real great, leading to momentary doubt. Marcus Freeman doesn't put 11 guys on the field.

9/9/2023 – Michigan 35, UNLV 7 – 2-0

I thought about copying and pasting last week's column and seeing if anyone noticed. It would have various references to ECU instead of UNLV, but acronyms are acronyms and maybe it would slide by. The accounting of JJ McCarthy's incompletions would be off by one and factually inaccurate, sure. I was banking on the nuclear glow coming off of McCarthy's arm obliterating all detail and leaving nothing but a crater of Buddhism (but fun!). I could have gotten away with it, I'm sure.

The pattern of this game was the pattern of the other game: big long Michigan drives on which some disappointing run plays are washed away in a torrent of third and medium conversions. JJ McCarthy's eyes glow white and he starts levitating. The opposition can do nothing on the interior and cannot pass protect and is only able to eke out a first down or two. Michigan irritatingly turns it over on downs due to over-reliance on a dive play. They lose the shutout when the backups to the backups get in. The final score doesn't reflect the statistical bombing that has just occurred.

Same, game, same column. It could work. I could scurry off and sip a mai tai or something. Wave to Dan Aykroyd, who is on a boat. Sort of thing.

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But no. No, I shall not do that. I shall stand and deliver because there is another thing that is more or less JJ McCarthy-level that should be addressed, and that is what is happening on the interior of Michigan's defensive line. You may have caught this from John Duerr on Twitter:

UNLV is going for it on 4th & 5.

Mason Graham breaks out his superman cape.

This is next level stuff from a 20 year old sophomore in college. pic.twitter.com/00hDOiDWwt

— Due# (@JDue51) September 10, 2023

What the cropping somewhat obscures is that right next to Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins was doing the exact same thing to the tackle. Jenkins is not a 20-year-old sophomore but he does play for Michigan at this moment, so we've got that going for us. Meanwhile Kenneth Grant is rumbling around stunts like he's not 340 pounds, then impacting people like he is.

[Bryan Fuller]

This is a long way away from converting Ben Mason and Jess Speight to DT and then playing them. The turnaround here is incredible; I remember a distinct sense of relief when Michigan was able to land George Rooks, a bonafide four-star defensive tackle. Rooks is now at Boston College because he would be the #6 DT on this roster, tops.

And there is no more important position on defense to have both depth and dudes. Georgia's recent run was built on talent everywhere, yes, but the most talent was at DT. When Michigan brought their Joe Moore award OL up against the Bulldogs they got shown what "generational talent" meant. There is nothing more dispiriting than watching the middle of your offensive line get shredded, and nothing more bloodlust-inducing than watching the middle of their offensive line get shredded.

To be sure paragraph: to be sure, Michigan has to sustain this level of production against better opposition. But even this objection is fairly weak when we've already seen what Kris Jenkins and Mason Graham looked like against the Big Ten. In Jenkins's case that was 20 pounds ago; in Graham's case he was a true freshman. It is not at all unreasonable to project the big gap ups they've demonstrated this year into the season-ending gauntlet. Grant is more speculative, but only just. And the big issue we projected, conditioning, isn't that relevant when you are DT option #3 on a defense that immediately boots teams off the field.

Michigan might have three first-round picks at DT out of no top-100 guys. That's a confluence of luck, development, and scouting that doesn't come together very often, and it's got Michigan pointed towards the biggest goals.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

the same [Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 JJ McCarthy. While I did not copy and paste last week's column I absolutely could have. 22/25 a week after 26/30 is crazy cuckoo banana nuts, as were a healthy subset of McCarthy's throws in this game. Drop eight? Don't care, eat this dig. Lift the coverage? Here is Donovan Edwards. Single coverage? Catch and run to Roman Wilson. Also, Jay Harbaugh took his head coaching opportunity to run the guy twice. Elite. LFG.

#2(T) Kris Jenkins, Mason Graham, and Kenneth Grant. Naturally. 14 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and 4.5 TFLs between the three in limited snaps. See above about the rest. 4 points each.

#3(T) Braiden McGregor and Derrick Moore. 2.5 TFLs and a sack between them, with both guys playing excellent run defense while providing organic pass rush.

Honorable mention: Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson both had good days catching the ball but got slid down here because of blocking issues. Tyler Morris emerged into that chain mover he was projected to be and had what's likely to be a +2 block. Jaylen Harrell cleaned up a couple of blitzes for sacks; Mike Barrett's blitzes created one of those and he was otherwise solid. Blake Corum did average 5.3 YPC despite getting a bunch of wedges.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

16: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV)
5: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV), Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV), Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV), Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV)
2: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU), Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU), Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV), Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV), Mike Barrett (HM UNLV)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

McCarthy hits Wilson with a strike that turns into a 47-yard touchdown just as the broadcast is talking about the reason McCarthy has 47 on his hand.

Honorable mention: Derrick Moore gets a pure edge rush sack; McCarthy does just about anything; play above where Graham and Jenkins simultaneously teleport into the backfield; Myles Hinton obliterates a guy.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Fourth and two wedge is stuffed.

Honorable mention: McCarthy gets up a little gimpy after a QB draw ends with a helmet to his thigh; Colston Loveland jet sweep gets crushed as Johnson whiffs a block; Tommy Doman puts a kickoff out of bounds?