graham mertz

So you may have heard bad things about Wisconsin's offense. Through three games, Wisconsin is averaging a measly 19 points per game. The Badgers are also 1-2 on the season and reeling as we head into this weekend's marquee matchup with the Wolverines. What's going on, you may ask? The answer to that question is what your author set out to uncover with this post. Is it just the quarterback? Or is it an uncharacteristically bad offensive line? Or maybe the lack of another successor to the Ron Dayne/Montee Ball/Jonathan Taylor succession of superstar RB's that the coaches in Madison sculpt out of sausage and cheese? Well, gang, let's find out: 

The Film: Before we get started, I have a confession: I am somewhat selfish. And in choosing the film for this post, I put my own convenience high on the totem pole for reasons behind picking a particular game. There's an absence of discernible differences between the way that PSU and Notre Dame play (and in terms of team quality), so in order to pick one over the other, I tabbed Penn State so that I can re-use that same film for Michigan's battle against the Lions later in the season (Wisconsin is a good analogue for Michigan when it comes to breaking down PSU). So, that's what we're rolling with, the 16-10 Penn State victory in Madison back in Week 1. And it was quite the interesting game, as you will see. 

Personnel: The chart. 

Wisconsin is starting the embattled Graham Mertz at QB, who gets a huge portion of this post dedicated to him. Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi is the starting RB for Wisconsin, getting the majority of the carries in this game. Last year's starter Jalen Berger, who I was pegging as a breakout player pre-season, has gone MIA in games of consequence. He didn't touch the field in the game I watched, and got a lone carry against ND last weekend. In between he got 15 carries against EMU in week two. Isaac Guerrendo seems to be the backup RB in the games that matter. Wisconsin still uses a FB, because of course, and John Chenal is their starter at that position, being used mostly as a blocker, but also for the trusty FB dive in their short-yardage situations. 

At TE they lean heavily on Jake Ferguson, who is Mertz's safety valve option, not breaking many long catches but being targeted often. Jack Eschenbach is used heavily in two TE sets, but is not targeted much as a receiving threat. Clay Cundiff is another TE option who has a pair of chunk catches this season and sees the field a decent bit. 

The WR's are not lacking in options but are lacking in a standout threat. Danny Davis III, who has been a viable option for the Badgers since what feels like 1975, leads the team in catches. Kendric Pryor is in a similar boat, third on the team in catches and presumably with a long gray beard to indicate his age. Pryor is also used as a jet sweep threat in the running game. The catches drop off substantially after that, but Chimere Dike, whose name is not pronounced the way it looks like, sees the field often. He just hasn't caught many passes. Jack Dunn has played quite a bit but is yet to collect a catch. AJ Abbott has a lone catch so I guess I'll throw his name out there, but it's really Davis, Pryor, Dike, and Dunn to talk about. 

On the offensive line, they have a set five man unit of Tyler Beach at LT, Josh Seltzner at LG, Joe Tippmann at C, Jack Nelson at RG, and Logan Bruss at RT. They bring interior linemen Kaden Lyles (last year's starter at C), Cormac Sampson and Michael Furtney on in the beef packages, and former blue chip OT Logan Brown has played some on the outside as well. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: What's up with Wisconsin's offense?]

Content note: Some readers may know me from my work on hockey and softball over the past years, but I have been lucky enough to be hired by Brian recently to write about football and basketball, so readers who focus mostly on those sports will start to get acquainted with me pretty quickly here. For those unfamiliar, I'm a recently graduated Michigan alum and you can follow me on Twitter at @Alex_Drain. For my first football piece, I'm picking up a series that has been run on this site in the past, ranking Michigan's opponents based on positional groups. Today we start with QB. 

Quarterbacks have always been important in football, but with each passing year (pun intended, I suppose), they become more and more crucial to the collegiate game. With the likes of Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray dominating college football in recent years, the connection between elite teams and elite quarterbacks could not be clearer in the NCAA game. It's incredibly difficult to compete for a title in 2021, B1G or national, without having great QB play, and so we begin this series looking at the most important position on the field. The good news for Michigan is that there really aren't many good QB's on the schedule this year, as the Big Ten's quarterback cupboard has become rather barren. The bad news is that the Wolverines are one of those teams with a lot of uncertainty in the cupboards. Let's dive in with the school that most obviously comes to mind when you think of great quarterbacks. I'm talking of course about Indiana. 

Michael Penix Jr. sits atop our list [IU Athletics]

1. Indiana

So, yeah. IU is not really known as a football powerhouse, but what Tom Allen has done in Bloomington has been nothing short of masterful, and last season's 6-1 regular season was the cherry on top. One of the big keys to last season's success for the Hoosiers was star QB and the holder of the B1G's most unfortunate last name, Michael Penix Jr. Penix has played 12 games over the last two seasons and has been nothing short of excellent, throwing for 24 TD's to just 8 INT's, with a 61.6% completion percentage. His performance in Columbus against the Buckeyes last season fully justifies his spot at the top of the conference among QB's, throwing for 491 yards and 5 TD's, while turning it over just once. In those 12 games that Penix has played in 2019 and 2020, the Hoosiers are 10-2, a sterling record for a program whose historical baseline is far below that. 

Penix is an unusual QB because he's a lefty, one with a cannon for an arm that can launch the ball down the field off his back foot and fit the football into tight windows. Accuracy isn't always perfect, but Penix makes things happen and is the key to unlocking the Indiana offense, taking it to higher levels than were possible with the boring and steady Peyton Ramsey. That's why Penix's health is so crucial, and it's the one thing that has held back his career up to this point. He played just three games in 2018 before an ACL tear wiped out his year and forced him to take a redshirt. Then Penix played six games in 2019 before an injury to a part of the body I didn't know existed (the right sternoclavicular joint) put him out for the year, and then his 2020 season ended a few games early due to a second ACL tear. Indiana maintains that Penix is going to be ready for the fall season and is on track to start the opener, but his health is so important to the team. When Penix plays, he's money. But it's getting to the point with Penix where we just have to conclude that he's the kind of terribly snakebitten guy you don't want climbing on ladders or being around mirrors. Which is a bit strange, because Penix isn't terribly mobile. He doesn't run much (except when it's to beat Penn State), and in theory shouldn't be so injury prone. Yet he has been. 

What keeps IU at #1, though, is they have a viable backup option should Penix go down for the fourth straight season, Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was a top 200 composite recruit of Utah back in the 2018 class who transferred to Indiana in 2019. He stepped in to play when Penix got hurt near the tail-end of last season and was fine, posting a 61.1% completion clip with 2 TD and 1 INT to beat Wisconsin and Maryland, but the Hoosiers lost to Ole Miss in the bowl game. Tuttle is not Penix, but Tuttle is still a better backup than a lot of teams have, and that's good insurance if their star goes down. But for the Hoosiers to have any chance of coming out of the B1G East, they need 12 healthy games from Penix. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More QB's!]