freshman wide receivers don't always suck

My answers ran long on NIL and transfers and Michigan’s clans, so I broke this mailbag into parts. The first is here, and this is the second, focused more on the Michigan 2022 questions. There were enough questions about Michigan’s scheme that I might pop out a third next week, or decide to save them for Neck Sharpies over the offseason.

Program Direction?

UofM Die Hard in Seattle asks:

Do you, Brian, Alex, etc …feel like this ship is finally ready to run on all engines, consistently year in and year out? Do you believe Jim when he says this feels like a beginning?

I can’t speak for the others but I do not, no.

It is the nature of college football to create narratives to fill in for chance. Flip a coin five times; if the first four are tails, Coinflip fans will argue whether the flipper or the coin needs to be replaced. Turn up heads on the fifth flip, and that’s the one we make a Teams podcast about.

“How great was 2021?” and “How good is the program that produced it?” are different questions, however, and the second requires acknowledgement that there’s a lot of variance. I think Michigan was a little lucky to win this time, and very unlucky that only one of five Harbaugh teams that played at this level came out champions. You know close they came. Alter an inch in 2016 and a Piggy 2pt conversion pass in 2018 and Harbaugh has two Big Ten East championships before Chris Olave ever lined up across from Brandon Watson (now Rusnak).

One good exercise when you’re trying to sanity-check the results of a season is to flip all the one-score games, and see how you feel about the season. We now have losses to Rutgers, at Nebraska, and at Penn State, but a win at MSU. That results in 9-3/6-3, 2nd place in the B10 East, and probably a Peach Bowl. Somewhere between that hypothetical (and still satisfying) season and the one we got was 2021’s peak distribution. Do that for the last seven years:

• 2015: 10-3, beat Utah and MSU, losses at Minnesota and Indiana
• 2016: 12-1, lose to Wisconsin, beat Iowa, OSU, FSU (probably in the playoffs)
• 2017: 9-4, beat MSU, lose at Indiana, beat S.Carolina to preserve the B10 bowl sweep.
• 2018: 10-3, beat Notre Dame, lose at Northwestern (blame “The Call from Mars”)
• 2019: 8-5, lose to Army and Iowa at home, beat Penn State on the road (probably doesn’t get Bama)
• 2020: 2-4, beat MSU, but no Rutgers comeback.

…and it looks like Harbaugh’s had Michigan playing at a B+ or A- level every season except the one where they had to play all true sophomores, and the one with all the COVID. The 2019 team was a lot better than the flip-it record.

There’s zero shame in coming out better than the flip hypothetical  —not only were we due, but it’s a mark of intangible things like timely decisions and plays. That’s where you get into things like Aidan Hutchinson’s leadership, how the players liked their coaches, how this team had fewer disgruntled players than others. I don’t have any way to measure that, or to know if it will continue, so it goes in the luck bin, but I believe in it. Also 42-27 was no fluke.

In the short term they’ve got fresh and upcoming talent at DT and CB—two talent-based areas we’ve been fretting about since 2018—and a ton of upside in JJ McCarthy and the receiver room Gattis put together for him. All four linebacker spots are sus, and Grandpa Hawkins’s stabilizing presence is an underratedly hard thing to replace. Past that they’re set up to return most of the 2022 team in 2023, but getting there requires navigating treacherous waters with new dangers, like the possibility LSU comes and buys your starting DT (like they did Mizzou’s this week). Depending on McCarthy’s development, the next few years could be a peak.

Long-term, it’s hard to say while we’re still waiting out Harbaugh. That’s gone on long enough that I now believe he probably does want to get back to the NFL, but the NFL isn’t biting. What version of Harbaugh does Michigan get back after that? People slow down with age and security, even The Jackhammer. I think Michigan’s climbed back to their Carr baseline, or where Dantonio got Michigan State, but the next step is the hardest, and the gatekeepers to that level are very keen to keep us out. Something more fundamental would have to change, from an expanded playoffs, massive schedule realignment, or new way of doing things at the NCAA that makes Michigan’s (and Penn State’s and Notre Dame’s) peculiar advantages into the most important ones.

If there is a difference now, it isn’t the underlying strength of the program but the fanbase’s mental fortitude. College football rewards highs and punishes lows, producing a few fanbases that can only experience relief when they don’t lose, and many losers whose only joy is others’ sorrow. Michigan fell down long enough to shed their hubris, and got back up with love receptors intact.

Intellectually, 2021’s may have been a Michigan team like many others. But to a new generation of fans, the experience gave them heroes and stories of their own. You don’t need statues, Seth & Sap, or other crusty old men to know what Michigan glory feels like anymore. A hundred thousand people saw it, and million more will one day claim to have. You get to tell those stories now. You were there. And will be for awhile yet. Long live snow.

This one turned into a beast as I ran into a lot of close decisions and had to watch a lot of Wolverine Historian'd Michigan victories on the youtubes to get them right. The things I do for you people.

Previously: Pro Offense/Pro Defense, 1879-Before Bo, 5-Stars, 3-Stars, Extracurriculars, Position-Switchers, Highlights, Numbers Offense/Numbers Defense, In-State, Names, Small Guys, Big Guys

Rules: Scoring the way we might with Upon Further Review or Pro Football Focus, i.e. overall positive impact minus negative impact. Eligible seasons are those where the guy played with freshman eligibility (you can be a redshirt freshman but not retroactively). Also we're grading only on that freshman season, not what came before or after.

Freshman Eligibility: With a few wartime exceptions and some irregularities from back when college football was 'Nam, from 1896 (the formation of the Big Ten) until 1972 freshmen in football were not eligible to compete on varsity. Instead they had freshman teams, who often played on Monday nights. It's way beyond my capabilities for some offseason #content to read every account of every freshman game from the 20th century, so only varsity freshmen are going to count here.

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Quarterback: Chad Henne (2004)

Lloyd Carr promised a battle for the job of replacing John Navarre. The candidates were RS sophomore Matt Gutierrez, who had never lost a game in high school, RS freshman southpaw (and future South Side-er) Clayton Richard, and the new five-star freshman yanked out of Penn State territory over the public objections of his head coach.

Coming out of spring the smart money was on Gutierrez, who'd wet his feet some in 2003. Nearing the end of fall practice that pick was locked in, and leaking out, along with rumors that the newcomer had replaced the future lefty reliever. Then during prep week to face Miami (NNTM) and Notre Dame, Gutierrez went down. A true freshman took the controls of the most NFL-like passing offense outside of the NFL.

Henne wasn't allowed to do much, especially early on. But he could do the one thing—the thing that would define his 2,743-yard, 25-TD (12-INT) freshman campaign. That is: throw it to Braylon. Henne's first long pass was a dead-on-balls fade to Braylon. His first touchdown was a 20-yard rocket to Braylon. His first 40-pass day included 18 in the direction Braylon. Of course, Braylonfest went in the direction of Braylon.

But as the season progressed Henne was picking up the offense. His Big Ten debut was a 16/26/236-yard performance against Iowa. He dispatched Indiana with lethal efficiency, and carried the offense the rest of the way. Though they lost to Ohio State (on a 27/54 day for Henne), a Wisconsin loss that day secured Michigan another trip to Pasadena.

Backup: Rick Leach (1975). Before I get attacked by an army of sexagenarians led by Dr. Sap, this is not a knock on Leach so much as recognition of Henne. If you did want to knock Leach, he wasn't much of a passer (32/100, 680 yards, 3 TDs, 12 INTs, 75.0 QBRtg) even in the context of his day. His rushing stats—611 yards/4.88 YPC and 5 TDs on 83 attempts—weren't great either. But the freshman had the right feel for the option, and that set up both RB Gordie Bell and FB Rob Lytle for 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Leach had a terrible Ohio State game, and while that motivated him to win three straight afterward, it didn't feel so great in '75.

HM: Tate Forcier (2009), Elvis Grbac (1989), Steven Threet (2008), Ryan Mallett (2007)

[AFTER THE JUMP: A more freshman year than 2004.]